Bear Market Rallies

Hmm... i am having my thoughts again on the issue of this bear market rallies. I find this as rather interesting cos if u ever notice a plunging stock(s), they just do not go straight down. They plunge, they have nice huge rallies and then they plunge even more.

Here's two interesting postings in my opinion on the US markets...

1. Bear Market Phasing

2. Rally Days are a Normal Part of Multi-Week Stock Market Crashes

Yeah, i know it does involve charts... but hey... let's be open minded and give it a read... Anyway this reminds me of this one section of the book, Bull.

"Think of yourself standing on the corner of a high building in a hurricane with a bag of feathers. Throw the feathers in the air. You don't know how high they will go. You don't know how far they will go. Above all, you don't know how long they will stay up. Yet you know one thing with absolute certainty: eventually on some unknown flight path, at an unknown time, at an unknown location, the feathers will hit the ground, absolutely, guaranteed. These are situations where you absolutely know the outcome of a long-term interval, though you absolutely cannot know the short-term periods in between. That is almost perfectly analogous to the stock market."

(those above comments were taken from the book Bull, with the original comments originating from Sandra Ward's interview with Jeremy Grantham posted in Barron's 2001, entitled After the Deluge)