Market Predictions & Outlook

Featured on Star Bizweek: Better predictions

The following passage was so interesting for me.

• Airy-Fairy projections
  
  The worst kind are airy-fairy ones. For example: “The KLCI will reach 2000 over the next few years.”
  
  What good are such statements!? What does “few years” in this context mean? Three? Maybe 5 years? Could it even mean 7 years? These are the predictions one ought to be wary of, as the pundit is trying very hard to avoid making the wrong call whilst seemingly issuing a strong call/statement.
  
  Talking about big calls, here’s one - Goldman Sachs’ recent prediction that oil prices will reach US$200 within the next 12-18 months.
  
  On the other hand (deliberate use of that phrase here), making a forecast that the market will hit 2000 is a very weak call. One might as well not make one. I’ll tell you why. Let’s start with the 1300 point level. Based on a 10% annual compounded gain, we could see the CI in 2008 at 1430 points; 2009 at 1573; 2010 at 1730; 2011 at 1903; 2012 at 2093.
  
  See what I mean? It’s not a major call at all, and definitely not when used alongside an ambiguous time horizon of a “few years” or even worse still “in future”.
  
  Predictions are meant to be useful to guide investors to make investment decisions. Vague calls that are essentially hedged bets serve no such purpose.
  
  There seems to be just too many well-hedged views by analysts, fund managers, economists as well as CEOs. The media fraternity should probe more when faced with such vague calls.

I chuckled for I had just read a forwarded weekly market commentary from iCapital.

• Strength from weakness ? Subscribers must have been shocked when we wrote that in last week’s i Capital. Since then, it looks like not only is Malaysia getting strength from weakness, but the weak is getting stronger. Don’t ask us how it can be done but our Malaysian magician politicians are of world-class standards, at least as world-class monkeys instead of world-class administrators. As the price of oil refused to budge, our politicians have also refused to budge.

That world-class monkeys statement certainly raised my eye-brows!

However, I was so confused about the the statement: Malaysia getting strength from weakness, but the weak is getting stronger. What are they talking about?

• With the latest sodomy charge emerging, our political monkeys, both in the ruling coalition and the opposition, have managed to turn the whole country in just a few months into a zoo, a zoo full of asses (pardon the pun). With one leader having to defend his back (again pardon the pun) and another leader having to face statutory declarations, the weak is actually getting stronger. For now, Malaysians are not bothered with this twist of event. Malaysians are more interested in wanting to know (or rather to gossip) who did it and why. The two most obvious persons that coffee-shop talk is focusing on are the 4th prime minister and the current prime minister. Both have a lot to gain.
  
  The list of “who done it” does not stop there. There are so many possible politicians, all with plenty of political mileage to gain, who would gain from this sodomy addiction. There are so many theories as to who did it and all of them seemed plausible. Since you guys, aka political monkeys, are having so much fun at our expense, let us Malaysians have some fun too by gossiping. While your fun destroys the whole country and make all us poorer, at least our fun is harmless and helps to establish the truth behind this political hedonism. Business at coffee shops should be roaring. Can we do a coffee shop IPO ? At least its NAV would not drop. So, please do not sue us or make us sign statutory declarations of all kinds. Some theories are so interesting that we would not dare to publish it. Some even say that it is a powerful woman who did it. He…he…. As everyone is gossiping and no one is managing the country and the economy, we better stop here, as we need to pay attention to the economy and the stock market. One thing is for sure though. Looking at how dirty and unscrupulous our politicians can be, the May 1969 riot was certainly orchestrated by our unscrupulous politicians.
  
  As Malaysia gets deeper into an oily patch, the price of crude oil gets deeper into stratosphere. The Malaysian government has promised no more price hikes after the recent jump. Can we afford it ? Can Malaysia with years of budget deficit afford to live beyond its means ?
  
  When the government raised the price of petrol and diesel, many protested. Why should we have to pay higher oil price when Malaysia is an oil producer and net oil exporter ? The argument of the protestors is that we should not compare our oil price with Thailand’s or Singapore’s as they are net oil importers. Malaysia should compare its price with those of the oil producers which are absurdly low. Is this argument complete ?
  
  Due to the unproductive and wasteful spending under the 4th prime minister, Malaysia has been “enjoying” many years of budget deficit. Although Badawi has been controlling it and reducing it gradually, by 2007, it was still 3.2% of GDP. When we were asked to compare our petrol price with those of the oil producers, how many of us know that these oil producers are running massive budget surplus in contrast to Malaysia’s budget deficit ?
  
  Instead of protesting the rise in petrol and diesel price, Malaysians, be they from the opposition or ruling coalition, should be asking where are all our spending going to ? Why are oil-producing countries like Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Kuwait, Libya, etc all enjoying massive budget surpluses when Malaysia, an oil producer and a net oil exporter, is suffering from its 11th year of budget deficit ? Where are we spending our taxpayers money ? Why is our spending more than our revenue ? Get our budget into surplus, then, we can talk about our “high” petrol and diesel prices.
  
  In Malaysia, the price of flour is still controlled. In Indonesia, the price of flour is not. In 2007, the price of flour in Jakarta jumped more than 100%. Incidentally, the Jakarta stock market is holding up very well despite the global turbulence and inflation and interest rates rising in Indonesia. Pakistan, with a budget deficit expected to rise to 6.5% of GDP, is getting her people ready to totally phase out fuel subsidies by Dec 2008. When is Malaysia getting ready to do the same ?
  
  When will our political monkeys remember that they have a duty and responsibility to all Malaysians to ensure that the economy is managed successfully and responsibly ? Are there not effective and better ways of having a democracy AND a better economy ? Do not turn this beautiful country into a zoo.

I do understand the point of argument stated by iCapital as they see much wrong with the country.

However, I was truly baffled by their conclusion.

• First, the KLSE was sodomised by worries of a global meltdown. Then, it was sodomised by the 2008 election results. Now, the KLSE looks like getting it again. Maybe after getting sodomised so many times and with investors getting sore, the KLSE may already be numbed. i Capital revises its immediate-term outlook of the KLSE to a range of 1,150 to 1,300. For the short-term, i Capital retains its outlook to a range of 1,150 to 1,400. For the medium and long-term outlook of the KLSE, i Capital still expects the KLSE CI to hit 2,000 points. With the 2008 election results now history but with the political comedy still being acted out, i Capital will review its medium- and long-term outlook at a relevant time.

It's immediate-term outlook of the KLSE to range from 1150 to 1300? ( Despite all the issues mentioned, iCapital's immediate outlook was adjusted from 1200-1300 to 1150-1300! Major adjustments?)

Short-term outlook is at 1150 to 1300?

And medium to long-term outlook of the KLSE to hit 2000?

Seriously, what is immediate-term? And what's the difference between short-term and immediate? I mean, isn't immediate a relatively short term period?

And what exactly is medium to long-term outlook?

What time period are we talking about? What are they even talking about?

Perhaps they could be more precise, yes? As it is, from a immediate (or short) to a long term outlook, iCapital is saying KLSE outlook is from 1150-2000 pts. Now this is simply way to vague, yes?

ps. Hmm.. the lowest range starts from 1150. Looks like iCapital is not covering its rear as it is stating boldly that KLSE would not be below 1150!