Bill Miller Claims That A Market Bottom Has Been Made!

On Reuters, Legg Mason's Miller: "Bottom's been made" in stocks

• NEW YORK, Dec 3 (Reuters) - Legg Mason's Bill Miller, a celebrated investor but whose stock picking is far off the mark this year, said on Wednesday the "bottom has been made" in U.S. equities.
  
  He recommends that the Federal Reserve buy stocks and junk bonds to avert a deeper financial crisis, adding "the taxpayer would make a killing" as markets rebound.
  
  Speaking at Legg Mason's annual luncheon for media, Miller said that all long-term investors believe that stocks today are cheap, but credit markets must regain health before equity markets can rally.
  
  It "looks as if the bottom has been made" in U.S. stocks, he said.
  
  Miller told Reuters the year has been "terrible, a disaster and awful," yet he held out his past performance in down markets as a reason why he should not be counted out.
  
  "We've performed in most of the financial panics that we've had -- the last one being the three-year bear market ending in 2002 -- we outperformed all the way through that," he said.
  
  "So even though we lost money, we lost a lot less money than the market did," Miller added.
  
  However, Miller acknowledged that his performance has been worse than in past downturns.
  
  "When you're underperforming and losing more money than the market in a down market, then that's a much more problematic situation. We've performed far worse than I would've predicted we would," he said.
  
  For the year, Miller's flagship Value Trust LMVTX.O fund was down 59.7 percent as of Tuesday, compared to a 41 percent decline in the reinvested returns of the S&P 500 index, according to Lipper Inc., a unit of Thomson Reuters.
  
  Performance over the year-to-date, one-, three- and five-year periods for Value Trust put it at the bottom of the barrel among its peers, Lipper data shows.
  
  The severe sell-off has provided ample opportunities.
  
  "This market is very unusual because since the end of the second quarter, it has been a pure scramble for liquidity which accelerated obviously post-Lehman Brothers and people sold without regard to value at all," Miller said.
  
  "So at the end of the end of this quarter, every sector in the market has companies that represent what we think are exceptional value."

I don't get the rationale for asking the Feds to buy stocks and junk bonds!!! I seriously don't!

Anyway, I have featured Bill Miller many times on this blog before. Here are some selected postings.

• Bill Miller's Letter to Shareholders 2007
• Bill Miller again
• Poker and Investing!
• Stocks Are Cheap!
• Bill Miller's Q3 Shareholder's Letter

So Bill is calling that the market has made the bottom.

However, I would like to point out this posting of mine made on August 2007, Stocks Are Cheap!

• According to data compiled by Bloomberg, stocks are now the cheapest they have been in 16 years. The S&P 500 is valued at 15.4x estimated earnings, the lowest since January 1991. Again, a pretty good time to be a buyer of stocks!
  
  Even after this decline in the stock market, over the past 12 months the market is up 17% with dividends reinvested, which is well above the long-term average.
  
  I began the year quite bullish and remain so. ( here is the source link to Bill's comments: here )

Yup. Bill has been calling that the stocks a cheap for so long.

And if you ask me, this is exactly why his fund is doing so poorly now.

The following chart of his fund, LMVTX, says it all.