Here is a short clip from Dow Jones Newswire.
- OilCorp (3697.KU) hits limit down threshold, down 38.5% to 48 sen on requotation; stock suspended since May 20 pending reaudit of company's accounts for 2008 after discovery of discrepancies. Clarifies audited group PATAMI for FY07 is MYR3.975 million vs unaudited result of MYR15.41 million. Deviation of more than 10% between the two figures attributed to adjustments made to various costs and "adjusting events." Oilcorp also submitted yesterday 2007 annual report and quarterly results up to period ended Sept. 30, 2008. For 9-month period ended Sept 30, Oilcorp posted loss of MYR2.3 million from MYR262.4 million in revenue vs revised net profit of MYR11.9 million from revenue of MYR277.1 million in previous year. "The selldown is not surprising. Investors are just looking to conserve whatever cash they can. There's just way too much selling pressure after so many months of suspension," says dealer
I decided to take a peep.
Just a small tiny weenie peep.
Long term borrowings......... 187,934
Trade and other payables.... 254,851
Short term borrowings......... 216,305
Well that's what they owe 'others'. A cool 659 million!
And what they have to offer is the following...
Ahem.. fixed deposit if 26.725 million and cash balances of 3.477 million.
That's not a lot compared to what is being owed by them and most worrying is the 498.257 million in trade receivables!!!!
The size of it is simply unbelievable!
Look at its share capital. It's only some 219 million!
Think for a moment.
What if due to 'unknown' circumstances, OilCorp could not collect half, yes just half, of these debt owing to them and needs to write it off as bad debts? (Is this not possible? Check past earnings. If these receivables could be collected, the amount should never be so much! Yes?)
Well half of that 498.257 million is some 249+ million!
Which is more than its share capital!!!!!!!!!!!!!
How?
This is totally unreal yes?
And to make it worse, OilCorp 'can' only manage a PAT (profit after tax) Loss of 3.3 million!
How?
And remember as it is, OilCorp owes 'others' some 659 million!!!
And if remember correctly, some local 'experts' called this a 'fundamental' stock!!
Dude, let's be more "conservative" and "fair" in judging oilcorp...
ReplyDeleteLet's give the various scenarios for 10%, 20%, 30% default. (personally, I think you are definitely right about the super high receivables meaning that they will NOT manage to collect most of that money)
Every 10% default means... RM50 million loss. Which is 5 years of earnings if you are kind to them and assign them an average annual profit of RM 10million a year.
(if you assign them an annual loss, they're screwed regardless of anything else)
CURRENT liabilities of 450 million is quite bad!
Their cash in hand totals RM30 million!
In other words, if they have to pay back 10% of their current liabilities immediately... THEY ARE INSOLVENT!!!
Moo, we don't even need to talk large numbers like 50% default on debts...
A mere 10% (which is a reasonable accounting number) in certain everyday areas, would be enough to wipe them out.
Oh yes... I notice that RM62 million of their asset shiit is "property development costs".
Wonder what happens if they have to write that off over time?