My last posting was on 12 Nov 2009, The Baltic Dry Index Continues To Surge But Is it Sustainable?. BDI then closed at 3748 and the posting questions the sustainability of the surge.
Since then BDI had corrected quite significantly.
Yesterday I noted a stronger downward movement in the index. The Index closed at 3118, down some 2.7% and yes, I am wondering, would this be the start of a new downtrend movement?
The following news article was rather interesting: Shipping industry in choppy waters
- ... While large ships like Capesizes have lost sheen, the decline in the last few days was led by a 6.7 per cent drop in medium sized Supramax hiring rates.
The industry expects further weakening with the approaching Chinese New Year.
K S Nair, director of Shipping Corporation of India said, “There will be no trade to China now, and unless economies like the US and Europe open up to see more exports out of China, there will be a lull.”
Besides, monetary tightening in China may also curb demand for more imports.
Although analysts feel correction in short term may not be dramatic, any fall further from this level could be a cause of worry.
Vikram Vilas Suryavanshi, an analyst at Karvy Broking said, “There will not be too much left for shippers below 3,000 levels and then again dry bulk ships could be laid up.”
Meanwhile, a slew of new ship deliveries in the next two to three years also loom hard on any expected revival in the shipping market and till economies like the US and Europe open up, shippers will face the heat of volatility.
The Chinese New Year should indeed a factor but I found two interesting points being mentioned.
The monetary tightening in China is already considered to be an issue for the shipping industry. Hmmm... rather fast, eh?
And not helping.... a slew of new ship deliveries.... which would 'could' potentially equate to supply of ships more than the demand for the shipping.
How?
I think no if the international trade is expected to grow this year, then this should not be the case right?
ReplyDeleteWould it be a lot of wait and see that causes the BDI to dip? Also cannot be because we always see the biz headlines that the business confidence is rising...unless this is also a cork and bull stories? Ha ha.
There are 2 issues I am worried about.
ReplyDeletePast year.. China was buying raw materials such as iron core. Again as mentioned by many before, were these purchases of necessity or plain old stock piling, where the Chinese simply gambled that the raw materials should go up in price.
Trade protectionism was also an issue last year. Would it intensify? Look at Obama just now. He wants American to manufacture more. ie Buy American. If every nations wants to buy more of their own... what will thus do to global trade balances?
pls comment on MBL. a new listed company with dividend 1.5sen. Eps quiet high,thx for the advise.
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