Here's the Business Times version.
- Stocks still offer good growth: Prudential
Published: 2010/01/14
PRUDENTIAL Fund Management Bhd, which manages RM17 billion, said global stocks still offer good growth even after a rally in world stock markets last year from multi-year lows in March.
The fund manager remains bullish on China, India, the Philippines and Thailand, but Hong Kong and Malaysia are likely to offer limited growth this year.
"We have been saying this for years and (will) once again (say) Malaysia is a good story, but not enough in a world of great stories. There's much better value elsewhere from a global fund perspective," said Robert Rountree, head of investment marketing at Prudential Fund Management Services, in Kuala Lumpur yesterday.
"Last year, we were overweight on Indonesia because it was due for a major re-rating. We were very bullish on the Indonesian banks then. Then there was the rally. But eventhough the valuation in Indonesia has risen sharply, we can still find value there.
"Comparatively, Malaysia is never cheap," Rountree told a media briefing on global market outlook.
Prudential has a neutral stance on Indonesia this year, along with Australia, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan.
Meanwhile, its head of investment services Bernice Leaw said more positive policy surprises from the government could drive up Malaysian stocks this year.
Foreign investors will also likely see bigger initial public offerings such as Maxis last year coming to the market, she said.
"The market has reacted positively towards Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak's liberalisation measures so far, it will be good if there's continued efforts in that area.
"The government has a lot of good policies, but as always, the implementation is key. Investors usually will give it six to eight months to see the results," Leaw said.
It was reported that Asian stocks helped lead 2009's global rally as unprecedented government stimulus measures and economic recovery sent investors back to the region's markets en masse.
With the exception of Japan, stock markets in Asia rocketed after touching lows in March with some gaining 80 per cent or more for the year.
How would you interpret that article?
Don't you think the TITLE of the article is rather misleading? Yes, stocks still offer good growth but if you are a Malaysian stock market player and you just read only the headline news that 'stocks still offer good growth', won't you be mislead? Further more, Mr. Roundtree said "Comparatively, Malaysia is never cheap"!
Yup, the danger of reading just the headline or the title of the article.
Now the Edge Financial Daily also carried the same story.
And unfortunately, it (the tone of the article) comes out different!
Prudential: Equities expensive but not in ‘bubble territory’
- Prudential: Equities expensive but not in ‘bubble territory’
Written by Daniel Khoo
Wednesday, 13 January 2010 22:16
KUALA LUMPUR: Share prices which have enjoyed a good run-up since the first quarter of last year looks "expensive" in the short term and might be vulnerable to a correction, according to Prudential Fund Management Services' head of investment marketing Robert Rountree.
However he added also that at the moment, "equities don't appear to be in bubble territory" implying that in the longer term, equity valuations are still considered cheap, compared to the years before the TECHNOLOGY [] bubble burst in the US.
He said at a regional market outlook briefing titled Bonds & Equities 2010 Malaysia, that among external factors that could possibly spark a sell off in equities are if the US Federal Reserve decides to raise interest rates in the US.
"The carry trade is coming back. So, a lot of the money that has been created in the central banks in the US and in Europe is coming into Asia. So if we do see a tightening of interest rates, then we could see money coming out of Asia in the short term," he said.
Low interest rates in the West fuels the currency carry trade where international investors borrow in the lower yielding currency to invest into another country's higher yielding currency for higher gains — some of the borrowed money is then invested into equities for quick short term gains.
Prudential had this suggestion for investors to look at purchasing corporate bonds instead in Malaysia because yields will continue to remain suppressed for the foreseeable future on the back of the expectation that interest rates will continue to remain at the same levels at least in the first half of this year.
Suppressed bond yields mean that bond prices is expected to continue to stay at their present levels.
However, at the same briefing, Prudential's Head of Investment Services Bernice Leaw said that "over the long term, equities will always give better returns than bonds," adding that she was bullish on Asian economic growth — led by China and India.
The fund manager is overweight on China, India, Philippines and Thailand. Prudential is however underweight on Malaysia because from an international point of view, there is better value in markets elsewhere.
"In other words, Malaysia's perennial problem, a good story in a world of great stories," Rountree said implying that Malaysia now has to compete with other rapidly industrialising countries like India and China.
He added that this year there may be another shift towards the trend where Asian economies "delink" from the developed West — where "Asian economies start to generate its own momentum", Rountree added.
Asia's actual declared profits seemed to have kept up so far with profit forecast expectations. However, actual profits declared by US companies show a different picture altogether, with profits only staying flat while historically, profit forecasts have gone up higher than that. He noted that the run up in equities so far in the US is due to high expectations of a recovery.
A realisation of this stark reality could also be another contributing factor to a possible correction in world equity markets. "However, (any potential correction) would be viewed as a buying opportunity," Rountree said.
LOL! So how? Just as expected eh? So which news versions would you want to hear?
:P
~~ $$$ dropping by ~~
ReplyDeleteMalaysia will always be a tailcoat rider....good story amongst the great.....
ReplyDelete