Baltic Dry Index Recovers An Impressive 45% And Offers A Ray Of Hope To The Greek Economy

It's been ages that I wrote on the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) and in fact my last posting on the sector was on Feb 2010: Baltic Dry Index Plunges As Warned!

Anyway here's an update. The BDI did not die another day but it has been doing remarkably well since!

And here is the six month chart showing that the index has recovered pretty impressively.


Let's see, as per the posting on 4th Feb 2010, Baltic Dry Index Plunges As Warned!, the index was at 2673. Today the index is at 3888. (Yeah lovely number eh? :P). This is a recovery of 1215 points or an incredible 45%!!!

The first thing that came to my mind was .... hey Dryships is from Greece! It was once hit hard when the BDI collapsed. ( See Jan 2009 posting Baltic Dry Index Makes Impressive Rebound )

And on Wall Street Journal John W. Miller, sees a ray of hope for the Greek economy!!!!!

No joke.

Greek Shippers Weather Storm

• At least one part of the Greek economy stands a chance of escaping the country's crisis: its big shipping companies.
  
  The top tier of the Greek shipping industry seems poised for a strong year thanks to its focus on tankers that transport oil and chemicals, and dry-bulk ships that carry commodities such as wheat and coal.
  
  The industry, second only in economic importance to Greece after tourism, aims to cash in on the boom in shipping commodities to China. The shippers also are well-positioned because they lack exposure to the badly overextended container-shipping market.
  
  "We are the truck drivers of the sea," said Nikolas Tsakos, chief executive and owner of Tsakos Energy Navigation, which operates 46 tankers.
  
  Profiting from global trade while maintaining a strategic distance from Greece itself is a strategy perfected by the nation's great 20th century shipping tycoons, such as Aristotle Onassis and Stavros Niarchos.
  
  The modern incarnation of Greek shipping was born in the late 1940s, when Greek entrepreneurs bought over 800 Liberty ships, U.S. wartime cargo vessels, at bargain prices. Specializing in dry bulk goods and oil, they benefitted from the booms in European manufacturing and Middle East oil in the 1950s and 1960s.
  
  As they profited from hikes in shipping rates during the Suez Canal crisis in 1956, the 1960s boom and the Gulf wars, Greek shipping leaders built up operations in London and New York, retreating there during unrest at home caused by dictatorships, coups and political assassinations. They flagged their vessels in the Marshall Islands, Malta and Liberia, and stashed their money in Liechtenstein or the Caymans.
  
  "They always have a place to go if things collapse," said Clay Maitland, managing partner of international registries of the Marshall Islands, which flags 12% of Greek ships.
  
  Ironically, Greece's current financial mess could help shipping companies by deflating wage and real estate costs at home. Other Greeks will have to pay up as the government better enforces the tax code, but Greek shipping companies are exempt from paying corporate taxes, under so-called Law 89. That's unlikely to change, analysts and shipowners say, even as the International Monetary Fund and the European Union impose strict new discipline to accompany the nation's bailout.
  
  Greek shipping companies now own roughly 4,800 vessels and control 15% to 20% of the world's shipping fleet by tonnage, according to analysts. Only Japan has a larger merchant fleet. Since the mid-1980s, over 20 Greek shipping concerns have become public-traded companies.
  
  Despite the fact Greek ship owners avoid taxes they comprise a big portion of the nation's economy. The industry says it contributes about 5% of gross domestic product by employing 250,000 Greeks and using Greek ship-maintenance firms, lawyers, contractors and other service providers.
  
  The global trade slowdown that started in 2008 hit Greece hard as shipping rates fell. The Baltic Dry Index, an indication of the daily rate for a ship carrying dry bulk, plunged to under 1,000 in late 2008 from a high of over 12,000. (The index has since recovered somewhat and is now over 3,000.)
  
  But Greek shipping companies recovered better than others in 2009, primarily because they have relatively little presence in the container market, the market that suffered the most, said Anthony Zolotas of Eurofin Group, an Athens-based firm that advises companies on ship financing. Only 5.6% of the world's container ships are Greek-owned, compared to about 21% of oil tankers and 18% of dry-bulk vessels, according to Eurofin.
  
  As the rest of the shipping world downsized last year, Greek ship owners bought up vessels at bargain prices. In 2009, they increased the number of ships they own by 218 to 4,763, according to N. Cotzias Shipping Consultants. Only China bought more second-hand dry bulk vessels.
  
  While the top firms are doing well, smaller ones are now at risk after Greece's economic crisis triggered a wave of ratings downgrades and credit tightening.
  
  Shipping depends on credit since firms borrow money to buy vessels. They charter out the ships to oil companies, coal brokers and other traders, then pay back their loans and pocket the margin. As access to funds has dried up, Greek banks have cut down on loans to small and midsized shipping firms. More than two-thirds of Greece's 1,100-odd shipping companies have fewer than five vessels and could go out of business if they can't borrow money to repair or replace old ships, analysts say. A few already have defaulted.
  
  According to a Eurofin report, only a few big international banks are still "active" in international lending to shipping.
  
  "Prior to the financial crisis you might have 40 institutions who would lend to shipping," said Mr. Tsakos, the shipowner. "Now you have about a dozen."
  
  Big shipping companies still can get credit. Evangelos Marinakis, CEO of Crude Carriers Corp., said he had no problem getting a $150 million loan from Nordea Bank AB. He used the money to buy two used tankers for $66.2 million each, which he is leasing out at a daily rate of over $70,000, several times more than last year.
  
  As the Greek economy slumps there is little doubt that salvation for the shipping companies lies in the Far East. With China continuing to grow at an annual clip of around 10% in gross domestic product, it is gobbling up increasing quantities of coal, iron ore, pig iron, coking coal and scrap, often through huge contracts in mineral-rich African countries.
  
  Greek firms are set to benefit from their strength in dry-bulk shipping. "Even we've been surprised by the appetite for dry bulk in China," said Pankaj Khanna of DryShips Inc., a New York-listed Greek-based firm that operates 39 ships.