Glimmer Of Hope From Japan's Survey of Production Forecast in Manufacturing???

We all knew how bad Japan's industrial production numbers announced on Monday, Japan's industrial production falls for fifth month.

Especially when the seasonally adjusted index was down some 38.4% from the previous year.

Pretty darn scary!

• TOKYO (MarketWatch) -- Industrial production in Japan fell for a fifth month in a row, down 9.4% in February from the previous month, to stand at 68.7, according to data released Monday from Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. The seasonally adjusted index was down 38.4% from the previous year. Shipments were at 70.9, down 6.8% from a month ago. However, production is expected to increase 2.9% in March and to rise 3.1% in April, according to the Survey of Production Forecast in Manufacturing, the ministry said

However, the last line of that news clip, offered some hope. Survey of Production Forecast in Manufacturing said that production is expected to increase 2.9% in March and to rise 3.1% in April.

The Australian Business offers more insight with their article, Japan industrial production expected to rise

• JAPAN'S industrial production slumped 9.4 per cent in February, but for the first time since October manufacturers expect their outputs to rise.
  
  A Ministry of Economy Industry and Trade survey shows Japanese manufacturers expected industrial production to rise 2.9 per cent this month and by 3.1 per cent in April.
  
  Hopes that manufacturers are beginning to feel the bottom of the worst slump in 60 years were boosted by evidence of heavy inventory rundowns -- the inventory index fell 4.2 per cent, the sharpest month-on-month reduction on record.
  
  However, with monthly industrial output having fallen by 35 per cent since September, and the International Monetary Fund forecasting Japan's gross domestic product would shrink by 5.8 per cent through this year, the Tokyo Government is not ready to call a bottom.
  
  Releasing the February surveys, the ministry maintained an official view that Japanese manufacturing is still "rapidly declining".
  
  "The global economy is fraught with uncertainty," a ministry official told reporters. "We cannot say our country's production has bottomed out."
  
  And confirming the trend, new figures released yesterday showed output from the auto industry, a mainstay of export manufacturing, was still in precipitate decline.
  
  The Japan Automobile Manufacturers' Association reported that domestic vehicle production in February was down 56.2per cent, year-on-year.
  
  Exports, which account for more than half of Japanese auto production, were down almost 64 per cent in February -- and were 66 per cent lower to North America, Japan's biggest export market.
  
  The 212,107 Japanese vehicles shipped abroad in February was the lowest total in 34 years.
  
  At the same time, the METI survey showed inventories of small cars dropped 33.8 per cent in February and stocks of LCD television screens shrank by almost 26 per cent.
  
  Economists cautioned yesterday that inventory rundowns did not signal even the beginning of recovery, without evidence yet of any lift in US final demand for autos, electronic goods and components.
  
  Daiwa Institute of Research senior economist, Hiroshi Watanabe, yesterday questioned whether manufacturers' positive projections for March and April were too optimistic.
  
  However, the quickening improvement in inventories since January, when manufacturers began coming to grips with the huge stockpiles left by the collapse of export markets in the December quarter, is the closest thing they have seen to a green shoot in the past six months.
  
  "It seems some positive factors are emerging from Japanese industries after experiencing such severe export market shrinkage," said JP Morgan Japan senior economist Masamichi Adachi.
  
  "I don't think we can say industrial production has bottomed out yet, but now we are starting to see the bottom.
  
  "The inventory index has improved for machinery, and the same can be said for transport equipment and electricals. I would also add the steel industry," he said.
  
  "So it is fair to say the Japanese economy is starting to come out of its worst situation, although this is not yet a strong trend."