Showing posts with label Peter Lynch. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Peter Lynch. Show all posts

Thursday, August 28, 2008

Peter Lynch Quotes And Stock Principles

"Thousands of experts study overbought indicators, oversold indicators,
head-and-shoulder patterns, put-call ratios, the Fed's policy on money supply, foreign investment, the movement of the constellations through the heavens, and the moss on oak trees, and they can't predict markets with any useful consistency, any more than the gizzard squeezers could tell the Roman emperors when the Huns would attack."
- Peter Lynch, One Up On Wall Street

"There are 60,000 economists in the U.S., many of them employed full-time trying to forecast recessions and interest rates, and if they could do it successfully twice in a row, they'd all be millionaires by now...as far as I know, most of them are still gainfully employed, which ought to tell us something." - Peter Lynch, One Up On Wall Street

"We must remember that capitalism almost by definition is a system of excess and self corrections"............. Said differently, our job is to help you be greedy when others are frightened, and cautious when others are greedy....... "Correction can be a scary experience...how should we react? Mostly by doing nothing." - Peter Lynch

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


Lynch's Stocking 20 Principles:

1. Invest in something you understand; become the expert.

2. Avoid the herd...venture where others fear.

3. Short-term there's little correlation between a company's earnings success and its stock price...long-term there's a 100% correlation; so, buy quality and be patient.

4. Know what you own and why you own it.

5. Long shots almost always miss the mark.

6. 5-10 companies are all the average investor can adequately follow.

7. It's OK-lah to hold cash when you don't find attractive stocks.

8. Never buy a stock unless you understand its balance sheet.

9. Avoid hot stocks in hot industries...look for great companies in boring industries.

10. Avoid small companies until they become profitable.

11. You only need a few great stocks to make a lifetime of investing worthwhile.

12. In your industry or your neighborhood you have the advantage over professionals.

13. Stock prices always fall sometime-giving the prepared investor a bargain.

14. Everyone has the brains to buy stocks, few have the stomach.

15. Ignore news of doom, focus on fundamentals.

16. Ignore interest rates, economy & stock market forecasts-focus on your companies.

17. Only 1 in 10 companies you study will uncover a story better than expected...thus, you'll need to sturdy 50 companies to find 5 investments.

18. Buying a stock without studying the company is just gambling.

19. Time is on your side when you own stock in a good company.

20. In the long run, a well-chosen portfolio of stocks will soundly ourperform fixed rate investments like bonds or moneymarkets

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Other articles

My Favourite Peter Lynch Articles
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Don't invest if you don't understand the story
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Earnings, Earnings, Earnings!
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Beware the Whisper Stock
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Foolish Acquisitions
Peter Lynch Lyrcis: Investing Art & Science
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Liking the product or service is only step #1
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Missing The Obvious
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Lynch on Warren Buffett
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Penultimate Preparedness
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Contrarian Investing
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Predicting The Market
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Looking in the mirror before calling the broker
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Investing In Houses And Stocks
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Risks and Rewards in Stock Market Investing
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Trying Not To Look Bad
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Theory vs Practice

Peter Lynch Lyrics: Investing Art & Science





ps: This is the last of my Peter Lynch articles collection. Hope you have enjoyed it.

Wednesday, August 27, 2008

Peter Lynch Lyrics: Fixation on Stock Prices is useless

The following notes was taken from a forum posting. If not mistaken the original writings were posted at Wallstraits.com

Lynch Lyrics
Fixation on Stock Prices is useless

"To my mind, the stock price is the least useful information you can track, and it's the most widely tracked. I subscribe to the crusty notion that sooner or later earnings make or break an investment in equities. What the stock price does today, tomorrow, or next week is only a distraction."

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Other articles

My Favourite Peter Lynch Articles
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Don't invest if you don't understand the story
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Earnings, Earnings, Earnings!
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Beware the Whisper Stock
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Foolish Acquisitions
Peter Lynch Lyrcis: Investing Art & Science
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Liking the product or service is only step #1
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Missing The Obvious
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Lynch on Warren Buffett
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Penultimate Preparedness
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Contrarian Investing
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Predicting The Market
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Looking in the mirror before calling the broker
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Investing In Houses And Stocks
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Risks and Rewards in Stock Market Investing
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Trying Not To Look Bad
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Theory vs Practice

Peter Lynch Lyrics: Investing Art & Science

Tuesday, August 26, 2008

Peter Lynch Lyrics: Stop Listening to Professionals

The following notes was taken from a forum posting. If not mistaken the original writings were posted at Wallstraits.com

Lynch Lyrics
Stop Listening to Professionals

"Rule number one, in my book, is: Stop listening to professionals! Twenty years in this business convinces me that any normal person using the customary three percent of the brain can pick stocks just as well, if not better, than the average Wall Street expert. I know you don't expect the plastic surgeon to advise you to do your own facelift, nor the plumber to tell you to install your own hot-water tank, nor the hairdresser to recommend that you trim your own bangs, but this isn't surgery or plumbing or hairdressing. This is investing, where the smart money isn't so smart, and the dumb money isn't really as dumb as it thinks. Dumb money is only dumb when it listens to the smart money."

"In fact, the amateur investor has numerous build-in advantages that, if exploited, should result in his or her outperforming the experts, and also the market in general. Moreover, when you pick your own stocks, you ought to outperform the experts. Otherwise, why bother?"

---------------------

Other articles

My Favourite Peter Lynch Articles
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Don't invest if you don't understand the story
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Earnings, Earnings, Earnings!
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Beware the Whisper Stock
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Foolish Acquisitions
Peter Lynch Lyrcis: Investing Art & Science
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Liking the product or service is only step #1
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Missing The Obvious
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Lynch on Warren Buffett
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Penultimate Preparedness
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Contrarian Investing
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Predicting The Market
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Looking in the mirror before calling the broker
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Investing In Houses And Stocks
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Risks and Rewards in Stock Market Investing
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Trying Not To Look Bad
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Theory vs Practice

Monday, August 25, 2008

Peter Lynch Lyrics: Houndstooth & Henrietta

The following notes was taken from a forum posting. If not mistaken the original writings were posted at Wallstraits.com

Lynch Lyrics
Houndstooth & Henrietta

"Consider my friend Harry Houndstooth--whose name I've changed to protect the unfortunate. Actually, there's a little bit of Houndstooth in all of us. This Designated Investor (each family seems to have one) has just spent the morning reading The Wall Street Journal, plus a $250-a-year stock market newsletter to which he subscribes. He's looking for another exciting stock play, something with limited risk but big potential on the upside. In both the Journal and his newsletter there's a favorable mention of Winchester Disk Drives, a headstrong little firm with a dandy future."

"Houndstooth doesn't know a disk drive from a clay pigeon, but he calls his broker and learns that Merrill Lynch has put Winchester on its "aggressive buy" list. All this can't be pure coincidence, thinks Houndstooth. He is soon convinced that putting $3,000 of his hard-earned money into Winchester is a very clever idea. After all, he's done the research!"

"Houndstooth's wife, Henrietta--also known as the Person Who Doesn't Understand the Serious Business of Money (these roles could be reversed, but usually aren't)--has just returned from the shopping mall where she's discovered a wonderful new women's apparel store called The Limited. The place is mobbed with customers. She can't wait to tell her husband about the friendly salespeople and the terrific bargains."

"While you've been out squandering money, I've been home figuring out how to make it. Winchester Disk Drives is the answer. As near to a sure thing as you could get, say's Houndstooth. Meanwhile, unbeknownst to Houndstooth, the stock price of The Limited, the store that impressed his wife, Henrietta, has been moving steadily higher, from less than 50 cents a share in 1979 to $9 in 1983--already a 20-bagger, eventually to reach $53, over a 100-bagger."

"But our Designated Investor, who had plenty of time to buy The Limited even after he sold out of Winchester Disk Drive at a loss, continued to ignore his wife's tip. By then there were 400 stores nationwide, most crowded, but Houndstooth was too busy to notice. He was following what Boone Pickens was doing with Mesa Petroleum. Sometime in late 1987, Houndstooth finally discovers The Limited on his brokerage firm's buy list, and in a popular finance magazine feature. It has become the darling of the analysts, a respectable buy."

"Funny thing, Houndstooth tells Henrietta, that store you like, The Limited, turns out to be a pretty good investment, now near it's high at $50 per share. Maybe we'll invest a few thousand from our retirement funds. Henrietta says, are you sure, The Limited is overpriced today, no longer unique and I don't even shop there anymore... What's that got to do with anything, scolds Houndstooth, I'm talking about investing here, not shopping!"


----------------------

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Peter Lynch Lyrics: Don't invest if you don't understand the story
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Peter Lynch Lyrics: Beware the Whisper Stock
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Foolish Acquisitions
Peter Lynch Lyrcis: Investing Art & Science
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Liking the product or service is only step #1
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Missing The Obvious
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Lynch on Warren Buffett
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Penultimate Preparedness
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Contrarian Investing
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Predicting The Market
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Looking in the mirror before calling the broker
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Investing In Houses And Stocks
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Risks and Rewards in Stock Market Investing
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Trying Not To Look Bad
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Theory vs Practice

Saturday, August 23, 2008

Peter Lynch Lyrics: Market Timing

The following notes was taken from a forum posting. If not mistaken the original writings were posted at Wallstraits.com

Lynch Lyrics
Market Timing

Distrust of stocks was the prevailing American attitude throughout the 1950s and into the 1960s, when the market tripled and then doubled again. This period of my childhood, and not the recent 1980s, was truly the greatest bull market in history, but to hear it from my uncles, you'd have thought it was the craps game behind the pool hall. Never get involved in the market, people warned. It's too risky. You'll lose all your money."

"Looking back on it, I realize there was less risk of losing all one's money in the stock market of the 1950s than at any time before or since. This taught me not only that it's difficult to predict markets, but also that small investors tend to be pessimistic and optimistic at precisely the wrong times, so it's self-defeating to try to invest in good markets and get out of bad ones."


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Peter Lynch Lyrics: Don't invest if you don't understand the story
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Earnings, Earnings, Earnings!
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Beware the Whisper Stock
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Foolish Acquisitions
Peter Lynch Lyrcis: Investing Art & Science
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Liking the product or service is only step #1
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Missing The Obvious
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Lynch on Warren Buffett
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Penultimate Preparedness
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Contrarian Investing
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Predicting The Market
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Looking in the mirror before calling the broker
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Investing In Houses And Stocks
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Risks and Rewards in Stock Market Investing
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Trying Not To Look Bad
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Theory vs Practice

Friday, August 22, 2008

Peter Lynch Lyrics: Investing Art & Science

The following notes was taken from a forum posting. If not mistaken the original writings were posted at Wallstraits.com


Lynch Lyrics
Investing Art & Science

"In college, except for the obligatory courses, I avoided science, math, and accounting--all the normal preparations for business. I was on the arts side of school, and along with the usual history, psychology, and political science, I also studied metaphysics, epistemology, logic, religion, and the philosophy of the ancient Greeks."

"As I look back on it now, it's obvious that studying history and philosophy was much better preparation for the stock market than, say, studying statistics. Investing in stocks is an art, not a science, and people who've been trained to rigidly quantify everything have a big disadvantage. If stockpicking could be quantified, you could rent time on the nearest Cray computer and make a fortune. But it doesn't work that way. All the math you need in the stock market (Chrysler's got $1 billion in cash, $500 million in long-term debt, etc.) you get in the fourth grade."

"Logic is the subject that's helped me the most in picking stocks, if only because it taught me to identify the peculiar illogic of Wall Street. Actually Wall Street thinks just as the Greeks did. The early Greeks used to sit around for days and debate how many teeth a horse has. They thought they could figure it out by just sitting there, instead of checking the horse. A lot of investors sit around and debate whether a stock is going up, as if the financial muse will give them the answer, instead of checking the company."

In centuries past, people hearing the rooster crow as the sun came up decided that the crowing caused the sunrise. It sounds silly now, but every day the experts confuse cause and effect on Wall Street in offering some new explanation for why the market goes up: hemlines are up, a certain conference wins the Super Bowl, the Japanese are unhappy, a trendline has been broken, Republicans will win the election, stocks are oversold, etc. When I hear theories like these, I always remember the rooster."

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Other articles

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Peter Lynch Lyrics: Don't invest if you don't understand the story
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Earnings, Earnings, Earnings!
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Beware the Whisper Stock
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Foolish Acquisitions
Peter Lynch Lyrcis: Investing Art & Science
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Liking the product or service is only step #1
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Missing The Obvious
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Lynch on Warren Buffett
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Penultimate Preparedness
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Contrarian Investing
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Predicting The Market
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Looking in the mirror before calling the broker
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Investing In Houses And Stocks
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Risks and Rewards in Stock Market Investing
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Trying Not To Look Bad
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Theory vs Practice

Thursday, August 21, 2008

Peter Lynch Lyrics: Theory vs Practice

The following notes was taken from a forum posting. If not mistaken the original writings were posted at Wallstraits.com

Lynch Lyrics
Theory vs Practice

"After that interlude at Fidelity, I returned to Wharton for my second year of graduate school more skeptical than ever about the value of academic stock-market theory. It seemed to me that most of what I learned at Wharton, which was supposed to help you succeed in the investment business, could only help you fail. I studied statistics, advanced calculus, and quantitative analysis. Quantitative analysis taught me that the things I saw happening at Fidelity couldn't really be happening."


"I also found it difficult to integrate the efficient-market hypothesis (that everything in the stock market is 'known' and prices are always 'rational') with the random-walk hypothesis (that the ups and downs of the market are irrational and entirely unpredictable). Already I'd seen enough odd fluctuations to doubt the rational part, and the success of the great Fidelity fund managers was hardly unpredictable."

"It also was obvious that Wharton professors who believed in quantum analysis and random walk weren't doing nearly as well as my new colleagues at Fidelity, so between theory and practice, I cast my lot with the practitioners. It's very hard to support the popular academic theory that the market is irrational when you know somebody who just made a twentyfold profit in Kentucky Fired Chicken, and furthermore, who explained in advance why the stock was going to rise. My distrust of theorizers and prognosticators continues to present day."

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Peter Lynch Lyrics: Don't invest if you don't understand the story
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Earnings, Earnings, Earnings!
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Beware the Whisper Stock
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Foolish Acquisitions
Peter Lynch Lyrcis: Investing Art & Science
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Liking the product or service is only step #1
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Missing The Obvious
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Lynch on Warren Buffett
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Penultimate Preparedness
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Contrarian Investing
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Predicting The Market
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Looking in the mirror before calling the broker
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Investing In Houses And Stocks
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Risks and Rewards in Stock Market Investing
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Trying Not To Look Bad

Wednesday, August 20, 2008

Peter Lynch Lyrics: Trying Not To Look Bad

The following notes was taken from a forum posting. If not mistaken the original writings were posted at Wallstraits.com

Lynch Lyrics
Trying not to look bad

"Whoever imagines that the average Wall Street professional is looking for reasons to buy exciting stocks hasn't spent much time on Wall Street. The fund manager most likely is looking for reasons not to buy exciting stocks, so that he can offer the proper excuses if those exciting happen to go up. 'It was too small for me to buy', 'there was no track record', 'it was in a nongrowth industry', 'unproven management', 'the employees belong to a union', or 'the competition will kill them'."


"With survival at stake, it's the rare professional who has the guts to traffic in an unknown (small stock). In fact, between the chance of making an unusually large profit on an unknown company and the assurance of losing only a small amount on an established company, the normal mutual-fund manager, pension-fund manager, or corporate portfolio manager would jump at the latter. Success is one thing, but it's more important not to look bad if you fail. There's an unwritten rule on Wall Street: 'You'll never lose your job losing your client's money in IBM'".

"If IBM goes bad and you bought it, the clients and the bosses will ask: 'What's wrong with that damn IBM lately?' But if (small stock) goes bad, they'll ask: 'What's wrong with you?' That's why security-conscious portfolio managers don't buy Wal-Mart when the stock sells for $4, and it's in a dinky little town in Arkansas, but soon to expand. They buy Wal-Mart when there's an outlet in every large population center in America, fifty analysts follow the company, and the chairman of Wal-Mart is featured in People magazine as the eccentric billionaire who drives a pickup truck to work. By then the stock sells for $40."


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Peter Lynch Lyrics: Don't invest if you don't understand the story
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Earnings, Earnings, Earnings!
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Beware the Whisper Stock
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Foolish Acquisitions
Peter Lynch Lyrcis: Investing Art & Science
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Liking the product or service is only step #1
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Missing The Obvious
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Lynch on Warren Buffett
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Penultimate Preparedness
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Contrarian Investing
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Predicting The Market
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Looking in the mirror before calling the broker
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Investing In Houses And Stocks
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Risks and Rewards in Stock Market Investing

Tuesday, August 19, 2008

Peter Lynch Lyrics: Risks and Rewards in Stock Market Investing

The following notes was taken from a forum posting. If not mistaken the original writings were posted at Wallstraits.com

Lynch Lyrics
Risks and Rewards in Stock Market Investing

"The stock market is not pure science, not like chess, where the superior position always wins. If seven out of ten of my stocks perform as expected, I'm delighted. If six out of ten of my stocks perform as expected, then I'm thankful. Six out of ten is all it takes to produce an enviable record on Wall Street."

"Over time, the risks in the stock market can be reduced by proper play just as the risks in stud poker are reduced. With improper play (buying a stock that's overpriced) even the purchase of Bristol-Myers or Heinz can result in huge losses and wasted opportunities, as I've said. It happens to people who imagine that betting with blue chips relieves them of the need to pay attention, so they lose half their money in quick fashion and may not recoup it for another eight years. In the early 1970s millions of uninformed dollars chased overpriced opportunities and soon disappeared as a result. Does that make Bristol-Myers and McDonalds risky investments? Only because of the way people invested in them."

"On the other hand, assuming you'd done the homework, putting your money on the risky and troubled General Public Utilities, the owners of the Three Mile Island nuclear problem, was far more 'conservative' than an ill-timed investment in solid old Kellogg. The big winners come from so-called high-risk categories, but the risks have more to do with the investors than with the categories. Clearly, the stock market has been a gamble worth taking-- as long as you know how to play the game."


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Peter Lynch Lyrics: Don't invest if you don't understand the story
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Earnings, Earnings, Earnings!
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Beware the Whisper Stock
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Foolish Acquisitions
Peter Lynch Lyrcis: Investing Art & Science
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Liking the product or service is only step #1
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Missing The Obvious
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Lynch on Warren Buffett
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Penultimate Preparedness
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Contrarian Investing
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Predicting The Market
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Looking in the mirror before calling the broker
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Investing In Houses And Stocks

Monday, August 18, 2008

Peter Lynch Lyrics: Investing In Houses And Stocks

The following notes was taken from a forum posting. If not mistaken the original writings were posted at Wallstraits.com

Lynch Lyrics
Investing in Houses and Stocks

"It's no accident that people who are geniuses in their houses are idiots in their stocks. A house is entirely rigged in the homeowner's favor. The banks let you acquire it for 20 percent down...giving you remarkable leverage. True, you can buy stocks with 50 percent cash down, which is known in the trade as 'buying on margin', but every time a stock bought on margin drops in price, you have to put up more cash. That doesn't happen with a house. You never have to put up more cash if the market value goes down, even if the house is located in the depressed oil patch. The real estate agent never calls at midnight to announce: 'You'll have to come up with twenty thousand dollars by eleven A.M. tomorrow or else sell off two bedrooms,' which frequently happens to stockholders forced to sell their shares bought on margin."


"Because of leverage, if you buy a $100,000 house for 30 percent down and the value of the house increases by 5% a year, you are making a 25% return on your down payment...do that well in the stock market and eventually you'd be worth more than Boone Pickens...It's not likely you'll get scared out of your house by reading a headline in the Sunday real estate section: 'Home Prices Take Dive'. They don't publish the Friday afternoon closing market price of your home address in the classifieds, nor do they run it across the ticker tape at the bottom of your TV, and newscasters do not come on with lists of the ten most active houses--"100 Orchard Lane is down 10% today. Neighbors saw nothing unusual to account for this unexpected decline."

"Houses, like stocks, are most likely to be profitable when they're held for a long period of time. Unlike stocks, houses are likely to be owned by the same person for a number of years-- seven, I think, is the average. Compare this to the 87 percent of all the stocks on the New York Stock Exchange that change hands every year. People get more comfortable in their houses than they do in their stocks. It takes a moving van to get out of a house, and only a phone call to get out of a stock."

"Finally, you're a good investor in houses because you know how to poke around from the attic to the basement and ask the right questions. The skill of poking around houses is handed down. You grow up watching how your parents checked into the public services, the schools, the drainage, the septic perk test, and the taxes. You remember rules such as 'Don't buy the highest-priced property on the block.' You can spot neighborhoods on the way up and neighborhoods on the way down. You can drive through an area and see what's being fixed up, what's run-down, how many houses are left to renovate. Then before you make an offer on a house, you hire experts to search for termites, roof leaks, dry rot, rusty pipes, faulty wiring, and cracks in the foundation."

"No wonder people make money in the real estate market and lose money in the stock market. They spend months choosing their homes, and minutes choosing their stocks. In fact, they spend more time shopping for a good microwave oven than shopping for a good investment."


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Peter Lynch Lyrics: Don't invest if you don't understand the story
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Earnings, Earnings, Earnings!
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Beware the Whisper Stock
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Foolish Acquisitions
Peter Lynch Lyrcis: Investing Art & Science
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Liking the product or service is only step #1
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Missing The Obvious
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Lynch on Warren Buffett
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Penultimate Preparedness
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Contrarian Investing
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Predicting The Market
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Looking in the mirror before calling the broker

Friday, August 15, 2008

Peter Lynch Lyrics: Looking in the mirror before calling the broker

The following notes was taken from a forum posting. If not mistaken the original writings were posted at Wallstraits.com


Lynch Lyrics
Looking in the mirror before calling the broker

"Do I have the personal qualities it takes to succeed? This is the most important question of all. It seems to me the list of qualities ought to include patience, self-reliance, common sense, a tolerance for pain, open-mindedness, detachment, persistence, humility, flexibility, a willingness to do independent research, an equal willingness to admit to mistakes, and the ability to ignore general panic. In terms of IQ, probably the best investors fall somewhere above the bottom ten percent but also below the top three percent. The true geniuses, it seems to me, get too enamored of theoretical cogitations and are forever betrayed by the actual behavior of stocks, which is more simple-minded than they can imagine."


"It's also important to be able to make decisions without complete or perfect information. Things are almost never clear on Wall Street, or when they are, then it's too late to profit from them. The scientific mind that needs to know all the data will be thwarted here."

"And finally, it's crucial to be able to resist your human nature and your 'gut feelings.' It's the rare investor who doesn't secretly harbor the conviction that he or she has a knack for divining stock prices or gold prices or interest rates, in spite of the fact that most of us have been proven wrong again and again. It's uncanny how often people feel most strongly that stocks are going to go up or the economy is going to improve just when the opposite occurs. This is borne out by the popular investment-advisory newsletter services, which themselves tend to turn bullish and bearish at inopportune moments."

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Other articles

My Favourite Peter Lynch Articles
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Don't invest if you don't understand the story
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Earnings, Earnings, Earnings!
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Beware the Whisper Stock
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Foolish Acquisitions
Peter Lynch Lyrcis: Investing Art & Science
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Liking the product or service is only step #1
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Missing The Obvious
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Lynch on Warren Buffett
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Penultimate Preparedness
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Contrarian Investing
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Predicting The Market

Thursday, August 14, 2008

Peter Lynch Lyrics: Predicting The Market

The following notes was taken from a forum posting. If not mistaken the original writings were posted at Wallstraits.com

Lynch Lyrics
Predicting The Market

"Things inside humans make them terrible stock market timers. The unwary investor continually passes in and out of three emotional states: concern, complacency, and capitulation. He's concerned after the market has dropped or the economy has seemed to falter, which keeps him from buying good companies at bargain prices. Then after he buys at higher prices, he gets complacent because his stocks are going up. This is precisely the time he ought to be concerned enough to check the fundamentals, but he isn't. Then finally, when his stocks fall on hard times and the prices fall to below what he paid for them, he capitulates and sells in a snit."

"Some have fancied themselves 'long-term investors', but only until the next big drop (or tiny gain), at which point they quickly become short-term investors and sell out for huge losses or the occasional minuscule profit. It's easy to panic in this volatile business. Recently I read that the price of an average stock fluctuates 50% in an average year. If that's true, and apparently it's been true throughout this century, then any share currently selling for $5 is likely to hit $6 and/or fall to $4 sometime in the next 12 months. If you're the kind of buyer who can't resist getting in at $5, buying more at $6 ('See, I was right, that sucker is going up'), and then selling out in despair at $4 ('I guess I was wrong, that sucker's going down') then no shelf of how-to books is going to help you

----------------------

Other articles

My Favourite Peter Lynch Articles
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Don't invest if you don't understand the story
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Earnings, Earnings, Earnings!
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Beware the Whisper Stock
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Foolish Acquisitions
Peter Lynch Lyrcis: Investing Art & Science
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Liking the product or service is only step #1
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Missing The Obvious
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Lynch on Warren Buffett
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Penultimate Preparedness
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Contrarian Investing

Wednesday, August 13, 2008

Peter Lynch Lyrics: Contrarian Investing

The following notes was taken from a forum posting. If not mistaken the original writings were posted at Wallstraits.com

Lynch Lyrics
Contrarian Investing

"Some have fancied themselves contrarians, believing that they can profit by zigging when the rest of the world is zagging, but it didn't occur to them to become contrarian until that idea had already gotten so popular that contrarianism became the accepted view. The true contrarian is not the investor who takes the opposite side of a popular hot issue (i.e. shorting a stock that everyone else is buying). The true contrarian waits for things to cool down and buys stocks that nobody cares about, and especially those that make Wall Street yawn."

"When E.F. Hutton talks, everybody is supposed to be listening, but that's just the problem. Everybody ought to be trying to fall asleep. When it comes to predicting the market, the important skill here is not listening, it's snoring. The trick is not to learn to trust your gut feelings, but rather to discipline yourself to ignore them. Stand by your stocks as long as the fundamental story of the company hasn't changed. If not, your only hope for increasing your net worth may be to adopt J. Paul Getty's surefire formula for financial success: 'Rise early, work hard, strike oil.'"


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Peter Lynch Lyrics: Penultimate Preparedness

Tuesday, August 12, 2008

Peter Lynch Lyrics: Penultimate Preparedness

The following notes was taken from a forum posting. If not mistaken the original writings were posted at Wallstraits.com


Lynch Lyrics
Penultimate Preparedness

"No matter how we arrive at the latest financial conclusion, we always seem to be preparing ourselves for the last thing that's happened, as opposed to what's going to happen next. This 'penultimate preparedness' is our way of making up for the fact that we didn't see the last thing coming along in the first place."

"The great joke is that the next time is never like the last time, and yet we can't help readying ourselves for it anyway. This all reminds me of the Mayan conception of the universe."

"In Mayan mythology the universe was destroyed four times, and every time the Mayans learned a sad lesson and vowed to be better protected-- but it was always for the previous menace. First there was a flood, and the survivors remembered it and moved to higher ground into the woods, built dikes and retaining walls, and put their houses in the trees. Their efforts went for naught because the next time around the world was destroyed by fire."

"After that, the survivors of the fire came down out of the trees and ran as far away from woods as possible. They built new houses out of stone, particularly along a craggy fissure. Soon enough, the world was destroyed by an earthquake. I don't remember the fourth bad thing that happened-- maybe a recession-- but whatever it was, the Mayans were going to miss it. They were too busy building shelters for the next earthquake."

"Two thousand years later we're still looking backward for signs of the upcoming menace, but that's only if we can decide what the upcoming menace is. Not long ago, people were worried that oil prices would drop to $5 a barrel and we'd have a depression. Two years before that, those same people were worried that oil prices would rise to $100 a barrel and we'd have a depression. Once they were scared that the money supply was growing too fast. Now they're scared that it's growing too slow. The last time we prepared for inflation we got a recession, and then at the end of the recession we prepared for more recession and we got inflation."

"Someday there will be another recession, which will be very bad for the stock market, as opposed to the inflation that is also very bad for the stock market. Maybe there will already have been a recession between now and the time this is published. Maybe we won't get one until 1990, or 1994. You're asking me?"

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Peter Lynch Lyrics: Beware the Whisper Stock
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Peter Lynch Lyrcis: Investing Art & Science
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Liking the product or service is only step #1
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Missing The Obvious
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Lynch on Warren Buffett

Monday, August 11, 2008

Peter Lynch Lyrics: Lynch on Warren Buffett

The following notes was taken from a forum posting. If not mistaken the original writings were posted at Wallstraits.com


Lynch Lyrics
Lynch on Buffett

"The market ought to be irrelevant...and if you don't believe me, believe Warren Buffett. 'As far as I'm concerned,' Buffett has written, 'the stock market doesn't exist. It is there only as a reference to see if anybody is offering to do anything foolish.'"

"Buffett has turned his Berkshire Hathaway into an extraordinarily profitable enterprise. In the early 1960s it cost $7 to buy a share in his great company, and that same share is worth $4,900 today. A $2,000 investment in Berkshire Hathaway back then has resulted in a 700-bagger that's worth $1.4 million today. That makes Buffett a wonderful investor. What makes him the greatest investor of all time is that during a certain period when he thought stocks were grossly overpriced, he sold everything and returned all the money to his partners at a sizable profit to them. The voluntary returning of money that others would gladly pay you to continue to manage is, in my experience, unique in the history of finance."

"I'd love to be able to predict markets and anticipate recessions, but since that's impossible, I'm as satisfied to search out profitable companies as Buffett is. Just for the sake of argument, let's say you could predict the next economic boom with absolute certainty, and you wanted to profit from your foresight by picking a few high-flying stocks. You still have to pick the right stocks, just the same as if you had no foresight."

"If you knew there was going to be a Florida real estate boom and you picked Radice out of a hat, you would have lost 95% of your investment. If you knew there was a computer boom and you picked Fortune Systems without doing any homework, you'd have seen it fall from $22 in 1983 to $1 in 1984. If you knew the early 80s was bullish for airlines, what good would it have done if you'd invested in People Express (which went bankrupt) or Pan Am (which declined from $9 in 1983 to $4 in 1984 thanks to inept management)? Let's say you knew steel was making a comeback, and so you took a list of steel stocks, taped it to a dart board, and threw a dart at LTV. LTV declined from $26.5 to $1 between 1981 and 1986, roughly the period in which Nucor, a company in the same industry, rose from $10 to $50. So, you want to worry about something... worry about picking the right stocks and the market will take care of itself."

-----------------------

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Peter Lynch Lyrics: Foolish Acquisitions
Peter Lynch Lyrcis: Investing Art & Science
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Liking the product or service is only step #1
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Missing The Obvious

Thursday, August 07, 2008

Peter Lynch Lyrics: Missing The Obvious

The following notes was taken from a forum posting. If not mistaken the original writings were posted at Wallstraits.com.


Lynch Lyrics
Missing the obvious

"Who would have had a greater advantage than yours truly, sitting in an office at Fidelity during the boom in financial services and in the mutual funds? This was my chance to make up for missing Pebble Beach. Perhaps I can be forgiven for that incredible asset play. Golf and sailing are my summer hobbies, but mutual funds are my regular business."

"I'd been coming to work here for nearly two decades. I know half the officers in the major financial-service companies, I follow the daily ups and downs, and I could notice important trends months before the analysts on Wall Street. You couldn't have been more strategically placed to cash in on the bonanza of the early 1980s."

"The people who print prospectuses must have seen it--they could hardly keep up with all the new shareholders in the mutual funds. The sales force must have seen it as they crisscrossed the country in their Winnebagos and returned with billions in new assets. The maintenance services must have seen the expansion in the offices at Federated, Franklin, Dreyfus, and Fidelity. The companies that sold mutual funds prospered as never before in their history. The mad rush was on."

"Fidelity isn't a public company, so you couldn't invest in the rush here. But what about Dreyfus? Want to see a chart that doesn't stop? The stock sold for 40 cents a share in 1977, then nearly $40 a share in 1986, a 100-bagger in 9 years, and much of that during a lousy stock market. Franklin was a 138-bagger, and Federated was up fiftyfold before it was bought out by Aetna. I was right on top of all of them. I knew the Dreyfus story, the Franklin story, and the Federated story from beginning to end. Everything was right, earnings were up, the momentum was obvious."

"How much did I make from all this? Zippo. I didn't buy a single share of any of the financial services companies; not Dreyfus, not Federated, not Franklin. I missed the whole deal and didn't realize it until it was too late. I guess I was too busy thinking about Union Oil of California, just like the doctors. Every time I look at a Dreyfus chart, it reminds me of the advice I've been trying to give you all along: Invest in things you know about."


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Peter Lynch Lyrics: Liking the product or service is only step #1

Wednesday, August 06, 2008

Peter Lynch Lyrics: Liking the product or service is only step #1

The following notes was taken from a forum posting. If not mistaken the original writings were posted at Wallstraits.com.


Lynch Lyrics
Liking the product or service is only step #1

"However a stock has come to your attention, whether via the office, the shopping mall, something you ate, something you bought, or something you heard from your broker, your mother-in-law, or even from Ivan Boesky's parole officer, the discovery is not a buy signal. Just because Dunkin' Donuts is always crowded or Reynolds Metals has more aluminum orders than it can handle doesn't mean you ought to own the stock. Not yet. What you've got so far is simply a lead to a story that has to be developed."

"In fact, you ought to treat the initial information (whatever brought this company to your attention) as if it were an anonymous and intriguing tip, mysteriously shoved into your mailbox. This will keep you from buying a stock just because you've seen something you like, or worse, because of the reputation of the tipper, as in: "Uncle Harry's buying it, and he's rich, so he must know what he's talking about." Or: "Uncle Harry's buying it, and so am I, because his last stock tip doubled."

"Developing the story is not really difficult: at most it will take a couple of hours...It seems to me this homework phase is just as important go your success in stocks as your previous vow to ignore the short-term gyrations of the market. Perhaps some people make money in stocks without doing any of the research I'll describe, but why take unnecessary chances?
Investing without research is like playing stud poker and never looking at the cards."

"For some reason the whole business of analyzing stocks has been made to seem so esoteric and technical that normally careful consumers invest their life savings on a whim. The same couple that spends the weekend searching for the best deal on airfares to London buys 500 shares of KLM without having spent five minutes learning about the company."


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Peter Lynch Lyrics: Earnings, Earnings, Earnings!
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Beware the Whisper Stock
Peter Lynch Lyrics: Foolish Acquisitions
Peter Lynch Lyrcis: Investing Art & Science

Tuesday, August 05, 2008

Peter Lynch Lyrcis: Investing Art & Science

The following notes was taken from a forum posting. If not mistaken the original writings were posted at Wallstraits.com.

Lynch Lyrics
Investing Art & Science

"In college, except for the obligatory courses, I avoided science, math, and accounting--all the normal preparations for business. I was on the arts side of school, and along with the usual history, psychology, and political science, I also studied metaphysics, epistemology, logic, religion, and the philosophy of the ancient Greeks."

"As I look back on it now, it's obvious that studying history and philosophy was much better preparation for the stock market than, say, studying statistics. Investing in stocks is an art, not a science, and people who've been trained to rigidly quantify everything have a big disadvantage. If stockpicking could be quantified, you could rent time on the nearest Cray computer and make a fortune. But it doesn't work that way. All the math you need in the stock market (Chrysler's got $1 billion in cash, $500 million in long-term debt, etc.) you get in the fourth grade."

"Logic is the subject that's helped me the most in picking stocks, if only because it taught me to identify the peculiar illogic of Wall Street. Actually Wall Street thinks just as the Greeks did. The early Greeks used to sit around for days and debate how many teeth a horse has. They thought they could figure it out by just sitting there, instead of checking the horse. A lot of investors sit around and debate whether a stock is going up, as if the financial muse will give them the answer, instead of checking the company."

In centuries past, people hearing the rooster crow as the sun came up decided that the crowing caused the sunrise. It sounds silly now, but every day the experts confuse cause and effect on Wall Street in offering some new explanation for why the market goes up: hemlines are up, a certain conference wins the Super Bowl, the Japanese are unhappy, a trendline has been broken, Republicans will win the election, stocks are oversold, etc. When I hear theories like these, I always remember the rooster."

Monday, August 04, 2008

Peter Lynch Lyrics: Foolish Acquisitions

The following notes was taken from a forum posting. If not mistaken the original writings were posted at Wallstraits.com.

Lynch Lyrics
Foolish Acquisitions

"Instead of buying back shares or raising dividends, profitable companies often prefer to blow the money on foolish acquisitions. The dedicated diworseifier seeks out merchandise that is (1) overpriced, and (2) completely beyond his or her realm of understanding. This ensures that losses will be maximized."

"Every second decade the corporations seem to alternate between rampant diworseification (when billions are spent on exciting acquisitions) and rampant restructuring (when those no-longer-exciting acquisitions are sold off for less than the original purchase price). The same thing happens to people and their sailboats."

"These frequent episodes of acquiring and then regretting, only to divest and acquire and regret once again, could be applauded as a form of transfer payment from the shareholders of the large and cash-rich corporation to the shareholders of the smaller entity being taken over, since the large corporations so often overpay. The why of all this I've never understood, except that perhaps corporate management finds it more exciting to take over smaller companies, however expensive, than to buy back shares or mail dividend checks, which requires no imagination. Perhaps psychologists should analyze this. Some corporations, like some individuals, just can't stand prosperity."

"The 1960s was the greatest decade for diworseification since the Roman Empire diworseified all over Europe and northern Africa. It's hard to find a respectable company that didn't diworseify in the 1960s, when the best and the brightest believed they could manage one business as well as the next. Allied Chemical bought everything but the kitchen sink, and probably somewhere in there it actually took over a company that made kitchen sinks. US Industries made 300 acquisitions in a single year. They should have called themselves one-a-day. Beatrice Foods expanded from edibles into inedibles, and after that anything was possible."

"If a company must acquire something, I'd prefer it to be a related business, but acquisitions in general make me nervous. There's a strong tendency for companies that are flush with cash and feeling powerful to overpay for acquisitions, expect too much from them, and then mismanage them. I'd rather see a vigorous buyback of shares, which is the purest synergy of all."

Friday, August 01, 2008

Peter Lynch Lyrics: Foolish Acquisitions

The following notes was taken from a forum posting. If not mistaken the original writings were posted at Wallstraits.com.


Lynch Lyrics

Foolish Acquisitions

"Instead of buying back shares or raising dividends, profitable companies often prefer to blow the money on foolish acquisitions. The dedicated diworseifier seeks out merchandise that is (1) overpriced, and (2) completely beyond his or her realm of understanding. This ensures that losses will be maximized."

"Every second decade the corporations seem to alternate between rampant diworseification (when billions are spent on exciting acquisitions) and rampant restructuring (when those no-longer-exciting acquisitions are sold off for less than the original purchase price). The same thing happens to people and their sailboats."

"These frequent episodes of acquiring and then regretting, only to divest and acquire and regret once again, could be applauded as a form of transfer payment from the shareholders of the large and cash-rich corporation to the shareholders of the smaller entity being taken over, since the large corporations so often overpay. The why of all this I've never understood, except that perhaps corporate management finds it more exciting to take over smaller companies, however expensive, than to buy back shares or mail dividend checks, which requires no imagination. Perhaps psychologists should analyze this. Some corporations, like some individuals, just can't stand prosperity."

"The 1960s was the greatest decade for diworseification since the Roman Empire diworseified all over Europe and northern Africa. It's hard to find a respectable company that didn't diworseify in the 1960s, when the best and the brightest believed they could manage one business as well as the next. Allied Chemical bought everything but the kitchen sink, and probably somewhere in there it actually took over a company that made kitchen sinks. US Industries made 300 acquisitions in a single year. They should have called themselves one-a-day. Beatrice Foods expanded from edibles into inedibles, and after that anything was possible."

"If a company must acquire something, I'd prefer it to be a related business, but acquisitions in general make me nervous. There's a strong tendency for companies that are flush with cash and feeling powerful to overpay for acquisitions, expect too much from them, and then mismanage them. I'd rather see a vigorous buyback of shares, which is the purest synergy of all."