Would You Be Concerned With All The Capex In The Rubber Glove Industry

It makes you wonder about all these capex plans made by out rubber glove makers.

Now do not get me wrong. There's nothing wrong with expansion plans. In fact, it's good to see factories making expansion plans, for it indicates that demand is great.

However, there is a danger.

Demand is not everlasting. It's not forever and ever.

And needless to say, even if demand does not falter, oversupply can occur. Yes, when everyone in an industry sees supply not able to meet demand, people get greedy. Surely, the logical thing to do is to expand production. One starts but they fail to realise that everyone too had jumped onto the bandwagon and starts making huge expansion plans. Next thing you know, the supply is everywhere!

Let's have a simple look.

In today's Business times.

• TOP Glove Corp Bhd (7113), the world's largest rubber glove maker, plans to spend RM80 million until May next year to set up three new plants and increase production lines.
  
  Chairman Tan Sri Dr Lim Wee-Chai said the expansion will bring the number of its factories and production lines to 20 and 459 respectively, producing 41.2 billion pieces of rubber gloves a year.

A 80 million expansion plan.

20 factories and 459 production lines. Meaning 3 new factories would be built.

The article continues...

• Top Glove currently has 17 factories, out of which 11 are in Malaysia, four in Thailand and two in China. They produce 33 billion pieces of rubber gloves a year, or some 33 per cent or more of the world rubber glove. Read more: here

A couple of days earlier, Kossan made the following announcement: Kossan in RM60m expansion

• Kossan in RM60m expansion
  
  By Zaidi Isham Ismail Published: 2010/06/23
  
  RUBBER glove maker Kossan Rubber Industries Bhd (7153) will spend RM60 million in the next two years to expand its operations in Klang, Selangor.
  
  The plans include two new plants, increasing production lines, buying new machinery, upgrading existing equipment and boosting research and development....
  
  He said the first plant will be completed by October, while the other will be ready by next year, bringing Kossan's number of plants to 12, producing 14 billion pieces of gloves a year, or some 14 per cent share of the world's rubber glove market.

Kossan plans to spend 60 million.

15th April 2010: Update Selldown of glove makers overdone, says Supermax

• Thai said Supermax expected a 40% rise in revenue to RM1.15 billion in FY10, based on current latex prices and bigger capacity with its new plant in Meru, Klang as well as the installation of new production lines
  
  It is allocating RM131 million in FY10 for the setting up of the factories. The Meru plant is expected to be commissioned by July while the first of six plants in Glove City in Bukit Kapar, Klang will be commissioned next year.

Supermax's expansion plan is rm 131 million!

1st April 2010: Hartalega plans RM120m capex

• Hartalega plans RM120m capex
  
  By Chong Pooi Koon Published: 2010/04/01
  
  GLOVE maker Hartalega Holdings Bhd (5168) has allocated RM120 million in capital expenditure for the next two years, part of which will be spent on plant expansion and technology investment, its chief says.
  
  The company, which operates five factories, is in the midst of upgrading an existing plant while completing the fifth one. The new capacity will boost its annual production by three billion pieces of gloves by the end of next year when the plants are fully operational.
  
  It is producing 6.5 billion pieces a year now.

Hartalega is allocating 120 million!

Recently I made the following posting on Adventa: A Look At Adventa's Earnings

• Capex (capital expenditure) guided by management is RM30 million per year which will be funded internally and via borrowings.

Adventa management is saying that capex is about 30 million per year.

Latexx Partners: You have to search their capital commitment statement in their earnings notes reported in May 2008. Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 31/3/2010. It stands at 63.128 million but for plant and machinery, the amount is 52.5 million..

Let me grab and crank up my cow-cool-lator... not sure if it can handle all these numbers... and if my fat little fingers are not clumsy and retarded... the grand total is 473.5 million.

So how?

Isn't it a little bit incy wincy scared?

And what about other glove manufactures? What if they get the same idea? Expand! Expand! Expand!

How?

And if we take into consideration that perhaps a huge increase in the demand was caused by the H1N1 flu. Now obviously it is possible that this H1N1 flu might not last forever. What if the demand decreases along with the H1N1? Not possible?

Yes, isn't it possible that demand could one day subside? But then with all these expansions, we know that supply would increase dramatically.

Would you be concerned? A little bit?

A Look At Adventa's Earnings

Adventa announced its earnings today.

Before I opened the earnings, I remembered an article on the Edge Financial Daily: Delay in Adventa’s expansion plan. It's written by RHB Research.

• Maintain outperform at RM3.14 with fair value of RM5.19 (from RM4.34): Adventa is due to announce its 2QFY10 results today.
  
  We expect Adventa to post a low double-digit year-on-year (y-o-y) revenue growth largely due to a combination of higher volume sales as a result of expansion in capacity which came on-stream in the later part last year.
  
  This however would be offset by the higher raw material costs as latex price rose 62.7% (y-o-y) and weaker US dollar (-7.4% y-o-y) against ringgit and as a result, core earnings could be flat y-o-y.
  
  Quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q), revenue is expected to be higher by a mid-single digit mainly due to higher selling prices in order to pass on the higher raw material costs to customers.
  
  However, we believe the increase in selling prices would not be enough to offset the higher raw material prices (+24.8% q-o-q) and weaker US dollar (-2.5% q-o-q) due to the time lag in passing on the higher cost. Consequently, we expect 2Q10 net profit to be lower q-o-q.
  
  Management has guided that the commercial production for its new factory in Kluang, Johor has been delayed due to the delay in shipment of some parts for the lines by the supplier.
  
  Following that, in 2011, the management plans to add another five double former lines, which will increase Adventa’s annual production capacity for dental and examination gloves to 5.5 billion pieces by end-2011 from 4.5 billion pieces at end-2010.
  
  Capex (capital expenditure) guided by management is RM30 million per year which will be funded internally and via borrowings.
  
  The risks include: 1) sharp surge in latex price which may result in margin squeeze; 2) an appreciating ringgit against the US dollar and 3) execution risk from its capacity expansion.
  We have lowered our FY10-11 revenue projection by 1.2%-1.5% after factoring in the slight delay in the expansion plan. At the same time, we have also lowered our FY10-FY11 Ebitda margins assumptions by 1.1-1.2 percentage points to reflect the time lag in passing on the cost increase to consumers.
  
  As a result, our FY10-11 earnings forecasts have been lowered by 6.7%-8.3%. We maintain our FY12 earnings forecasts for now.
  
  Despite the cut in our earnings forecasts, our indicative fair value has been raised to RM5.19 as we roll forward our valuation year to FY11 (from RM4.34 based on CY10). No change to our target PER of 13 times and outperform call on the stock. — RHB Research Institute, June 14

Well, it's pretty much spot on.

Adventa earned 6.450 million for the current quarter, fy 2010 Q2. Half year net earnings came in at 15.803 million.

Adventa's earnings of 6.450 million was much better than it's 3.789 million on a y-y comparison. And on a q-q comparison net earnings, the previous quarter, Adventa reported net earnings of 9.353 million.

The weak numbers are as expected but it looks much weaker than what RHB had expected. RHB's fy 2010 estimate earnings for Adventa are 41.9million. Adventa only did 15.803 million for first half of 2010.

I then took a look at Adventa's balance sheet to look see. Yeah, I wanted to see how it measures up.

I was not too impressed.

So RHB had said that Adventa management had guided that capex would be around 30 million.

Cash and bank balances did showed decline when compared to previous year.

I then wanted to see the cash flow statement.

Arrrggggggrhhhhhh..... as you can see from the above, it's a summarised cash flow statement.

Argggghhhhhhhhhh!

That's it.

I lost all interest in the stock.

Yup. No more interest at all. I cannot see the point at all when the company chooses not to be transparent with its cash flow statement.

Hey, less one 'investment grade' stock to watch won't hurt me at all.

(ps: the issues causing the lower Adventa's earnings is a concern for the rest of the glove sector, yes? )