And yeah, that's 17 consecutive quarters of losses for Green Packet!

Green Packet announced its earnings and finally it achieved it's so called EBITDA positive. Oh yeah, do refer to the following posting for their countless promises on EBITDA positive: And Green Packet Now Says .............

But despite being EBITDA positive, the company recorded some 29 million in losses for the current reporting quarter.

Yeah and for the stats lover, that's 17 consecutive quarters of losses!

For the record:

1. May 21st 2008: Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 31/3/2008 - loss of 3.354 million

2. Aug 20th 2008: Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 30/6/2008 - loss of 6.579 million.

3. Nov 14th 2008: Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 30/9/2008 - loss of 10.894 million

4. Feb 16th 2009: Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 31/12/2008 - loss of 38.660 million

5. May 22nd 2009: Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 31/3/2009 - loss of 22.550 million

6. Aug 13th 2009: Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 30/6/2009 - loss of 28.167 million

7. Nov 12th 2009: Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 30/9/2009 - loss of 32.869 million

8. Feb 11th 2010: Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 31/12/2009 - loss of 95.612 million

9. May 13th 2010: Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 31/3/2010 - loss of 44.753 million

10. Aug 16th 2010: Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 30/6/2010 - loss of 35.900 million

11.Nov 15th 2010: Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 30/9/2010 - loss of 28.912 million

12. Feb 16th 2011: Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 31/12/2010 - loss of 100.112 million

13. May 24th 2011: Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 31/3/2011 - loss of 37.893 million.

14.  Aug 15th 2011: Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 30/6/2011 - loss of 37.069 million.

15. Nov 23rd 2011: Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 30/9/2011 - loss of 44.321 million.

16. Feb 23rd 2012: Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 31/12/2011 - loss of 61.512 million.

17. May 23rd 2012 - loss of 29.735 million!!

Wanna count how much losses since their venture into this 'wonderful' business?

And yeah, after so much losses they have incurred the following was published on Business Times today: ( LOL! Apparently their talk is now shifted from their EBITDA positive to the BILLION dollar!!!  )

• Green Packet aims for RM1b revenue by 2015
  By Goh Thean Eu Published: 2012/05/24
  
  GREEN Packet Bhd, a wireless networking technology developer and a mobile broadband service provider, aims to hit RM1 billion in revenue by 2015, partly helped by the expansion of its wireless broadband business.
  
  "We believe mobile broadband is the way to go. In the future, we are not only looking at connecting people, but also machine-to-machine communications. Basically, everything that can be connected, will be connected.
  
  "So, the growth potential in the wireless broadband is huge," said group managing director Puan Chan Cheong in an interview recently.
  
  The company has two main businesses. One is its wireless broadband business - which is currently operated under its unit, Packet One Networks Sdn Bhd (P1). The other is its solutions business, which sells software and customer premises equipment like modems, to mobile operators.
  
  The software helps mobile operators to manage their mobile data traffic more efficiently.
  
  "The good news is that, both our pillars are expected to continue to grow at a healthy rate over the near to medium term."
  
  The company - which saw red in its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) for the past four financial years - registered a "positive Ebitda" during the first quarter this year.
  
  "Our main focus now is to ensure that we are able to sustain the Ebitda's positive trend," he said.
  
  For the first quarter ended March 31 2012, the company posted a net loss of RM29.74 million, compared to RM37.89 million net loss in the same quarter last year. Revenue rose by five per cent to RM128.17 million.
  
  The group recorded an Ebitda of RM3.9 million for the quarter, a 153 per cent jump year-on-year.
  
  Its P1 pillar contributed about 85 per cent (or RM3.3 million) to the group's total Ebitda.
  
  Puan explained that in the business of telecommunication, what is important is that the company is able to make profits operationally.
  
  The company, for the full year ended December 31 2011, posted a net loss of RM85 million. A significant part of the net loss was contributed by the depreciation expenses of its wireless broadband equipment and infrastructure.
  
  "We have invested a total of about RM1 billion in capital expenditure. These investments would need to be amortised over a 10-year period. So, this means we are looking at depreciation of about RM100 million a year," he said.
  
  Green Packet Bhd is evaluating a few proposals from investment bankers on the possibility of listing P1 on the stock exchange.
  
  "We are looking at a few proposals right now," said Puan.
  
  He added that the company, as well as P1, remained open to the possibility of merger or partnership with its rivals.
  
  "I think the industry is set for a consolidation. I think, eventually, there will be four to five players. We are currently the fourth largest broadband provider, after Telekom Malaysia Bhd, Maxis Bhd, Celcom (Axiata) Bhd," said Puan.

And Green Packet Now Says .............

Once upon a time, not too long ago, the following were muttered in our financial world...

• Feb 2008: we expect the WiMAX business to be ebitda (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation ) break-even this year,"
• May 2008: we are targeting EBITDA positive by end of next year.
• May 2009: P1 will be EBITDA will break-even from next year.
• Feb 2010: concurred that will be EBITDA positive in the second half of this year.
• May 10: the company remained optimistic that it will be able to achieve an Ebitda break even
• June 2010: Green Packet Bhd’s target to turn earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) positive by year-end may be delayed to next year
• Sep 2010: Puan added that Green Packet is maintaining that its Ebitda (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) will break even by the end of this year.
• Nov 2010: "We're confident of breaking even no later than the first quarter. Ebitda (earnings before interest, tax depreciation and amortisation) turnaround is really at the corner," chief executive officer C.C. Puan said at a press conference in Petaling Jaya, Selangor, yesterday.
• Feb 2011: defers its target of being EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation) positive to end-2011.
• May 2011: Green Packet Bhd is on track to achieve its EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation) break-even target by this year-end, according to the group's managing director and chief executive officer Puan Chan Cheong.
• Aug 2011: ... remained bullish that it will be a "ebitda positive" company by year-end

Oh yeah, we are talking about the one, the one and only one..... GREEN PACKET!

It was really hilarious when the following was written on the Star Biz last Nov 2011: Green Packet makes profit pledge again

• It is a pledge familiar to shareholders. At the briefing, Puan was asked twice if he was indeed confident of delivering an earnings before interest, tax and amortisation (EBITDA) break-even by the end of this year. He did not clearly answer in the affirmative but said that looking at the current figures, he believed that the company was on its way to achieving that goal.

Well on today's Star Biz, a slightly different message was sent out... GPacket poised to turn around

The following statements were made...

• ..... “We are already EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) positive at group level as at end 2011. At both levels we will be PAT (profit after tax) positive in 2013,” GPacket group managing director C.C. Puan said in an interview.
  
  “As for P1, it will be an historic year, as in less than four years it will turn EBITDA positive this year. You must realise that we are in an industry where the gestation periods are long.”
  
  For this year, he expects the depreciation for P1 to amount to RM100mil. Hence, that will have an impact on its earnings.
  
  For the third quarter ending September 2011, GPacket reported a net loss of RM24.3mil versus RM13.7mil a year earlier. It is expected to announce its full-year 2011 results later this month...

Oooo lala.....

• “We are already EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) positive at group level as at end 2011. At both levels we will be PAT (profit after tax) positive in 2013.

We ARE .... that's what he said..... we shall see.... it's earnings will be out later this month.

• “As for P1, it will be an historic year, as in less than four years it will turn EBITDA positive this year. You must realise that we are in an industry where the gestation periods are long.”

LOL!

Very strange isn't it?

Puan understands and has reminded that they ARE in an industry where the gestation periods are long.. but yet... the record showed that since 2008... he had kept on repeating and repeating and repeating and repeating and repeating and repeating and .......... repeating.........

XD

Green Packet Makes Bullish Pledge Again Despite Losing Money For The 15th Consecutive Quarter

I saw the Star Biz headline on Green Packet's earnings: Green Packet makes profit pledge again

• PETALING JAYA: After reporting yet another loss-making quarter, wireless services provider Green Packet Bhd has again given a promise of profitability.
  
  This time around, at a media briefing yesterday on the company’s third-quarter results, group managing director CC Puan said Green Packet aimed to report profits by the second half of next year.
  
  It is a pledge familiar to shareholders. At the briefing, Puan was asked twice if he was indeed confident of delivering an earnings before interest, tax and amortisation (EBITDA) break-even by the end of this year. He did not clearly answer in the affirmative but said that looking at the current figures, he believed that the company was on its way to achieving that goal.
  
  Green Packet has seen improvements of late and has narrowed its losses since a year ago.
  
  Puan said the company could post a profit for 2013 on condition that it registered positive net additions in subscribers for every month in the next year.

LOL!

'Makes profit pledge again ...'

Oh yeah we heard it too many times before and it's great to see the Star biz actually write 'It is a pledge familiar to shareholders'!

And more interesting was Puan was asked TWICE if he was confident of delivering EBITDA positive by end of the year, after all if one had followed past posting, Puan had declared only on Aug 2011 that he remained bullish that the company will be 'ebitda positive' by the end of this fiscal year!

To recap the never ending record....

• Feb 2008: we expect the WiMAX business to be ebitda (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation ) break-even this year,"
• May 2008: we are targeting EBITDA positive by end of next year.
• May 2009: P1 will be EBITDA will break-even from next year.
• Feb 2010: concurred that will be EBITDA positive in the second half of this year.
• May 10: the company remained optimistic that it will be able to achieve an Ebitda break even
• June 2010: Green Packet Bhd’s target to turn earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) positive by year-end may be delayed to next year
• Sep 2010: Puan added that Green Packet is maintaining that its Ebitda (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) will break even by the end of this year.
• Nov 2010: "We're confident of breaking even no later than the first quarter. Ebitda (earnings before interest, tax depreciation and amortisation) turnaround is really at the corner," chief executive officer C.C. Puan said at a press conference in Petaling Jaya, Selangor, yesterday.
• Feb 2011: defers its target of being EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation) positive to end-2011.
• May 2011: Green Packet Bhd is on track to achieve its EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation) break-even target by this year-end, according to the group's managing director and chief executive officer Puan Chan Cheong.
• Aug 2011: ... remained bullish that it will be a "ebitda positive" company by year-end

Yes, since Feb 2008, Green Packet sang the same tune, over and over again. And everytime, the company fell short.

And for the record, this is the 15th consecutive quarters of losses and total net losses amount to 547.648 million!

That's 14th Consecutive Quarters Of Losses For Green Packet!!

I wasn't going to blog about Green Packet, despite me glancing thru its quarterly earnings losses last night. It's gonna be a bore because I was so sure that the company would be saying that 'Oh, we recorded less losses... we be E**** positive by this date... blah.. blah.. blah...' ( E**** ? That stands for the EBITDA )

This morning I read the Business Times article...

• The company, which posted its 10th consecutive quarters of net losses, remained bullish that it will be a "ebitda positive" company by year-end

That was simply appalling and disgusting.

No, not on the ebitda thingy but on the 10th consecutive quarters of net losses.

Why?

That's simply a false statement!

Gee! And to think that we constantly read that internet blogs are of no good and they are not accurate but what about our mainstream media? Are they accurate?

Now I wonder who gave that piece of fact (10th consecutive quarters of net losses)? Was it Green Packet? Or was it the reporter?

Let's have a look.

First its last quarter of 'profit' was announced on 28 Feb 2008: Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 31/12/2007

Then came the losses!

1. May 21st 2008: Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 31/3/2008 - loss of 3.354 million

2. Aug 20th 2008: Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 30/6/2008 - loss of 6.579 million.

3. Nov 14th 2008: Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 30/9/2008 - loss of 10.894 million

4. Feb 16th 2009: Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 31/12/2008 - loss of 38.660 million

5. May 22nd 2009: Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 31/3/2009 - loss of 22.550 million

6. Aug 13th 2009: Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 30/6/2009 - loss of 28.167 million

7. Nov 12th 2009: Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 30/9/2009 - loss of 32.869 million

8. Feb 11th 2010: Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 31/12/2009 - loss of 95.612 million

9. May 13th 2010: Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 31/3/2010 - loss of 44.753 million

10. Aug 16th 2010: Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 30/6/2010 - loss of 35.900 million

11.Nov 15th 2010: Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 30/9/2010 - loss of 28.912 million

12. Feb 16th 2011: Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 31/12/2010 - loss of 100.112 million

13. May 24th 2011: Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 31/3/2011 - loss of 37.893 million.

14. And.......................last night's earnings......Aug 15th 2011: Loss of 37.069 million!

There you have it!

That's 14th consecutive quarters of losses!

How did BTimes report 10 consecutive quarters of losses?

Total losses for the period 523.324 million!

Towards the end of the Btimes article:

• Meanwhile, P1 chief executive officer Michael Lai said that it takes a while for companies in the telecommunications industry to break even its investments and to start making profits.
  
  "At the end of the day, bear in mind that we are just a three-year-old company. Telecommunications business is about long haul, you can't make profits overnight," said Lai. - By Goh Thean Eu

Yes, of course telco business is about long haul and you probably can't make money overnight. I agree. I fully agree.

But the problem here is...... try to listen back to what Green Packet had been boldly telling the local media all this while.

Just listen to the never ending record....

• Feb 2008: we expect the WiMAX business to be ebitda (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation ) break-even this year,"
• May 2008: we are targeting EBITDA positive by end of next year.
• May 2009: P1 will be EBITDA will break-even from next year.
• Feb 2010: concurred that will be EBITDA positive in the second half of this year.
• May 10: the company remained optimistic that it will be able to achieve an Ebitda break even
• June 2010: Green Packet Bhd’s target to turn earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) positive by year-end may be delayed to next year
• Sep 2010: Puan added that Green Packet is maintaining that its Ebitda (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) will break even by the end of this year.
• Nov 2010: "We're confident of breaking even no later than the first quarter. Ebitda (earnings before interest, tax depreciation and amortisation) turnaround is really at the corner," chief executive officer C.C. Puan said at a press conference in Petaling Jaya, Selangor, yesterday.
• Feb 2011: defers its target of being EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation) positive to end-2011.
• May 2011: Green Packet Bhd is on track to achieve its EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation) break-even target by this year-end, according to the group's managing director and chief executive officer Puan Chan Cheong.
• Aug 2011: ... remained bullish that it will be a "ebitda positive" company by year-end

See my point?

If your company understand and know that the telco business is about long haul and you probably can't make money overnight, why keep telling the investing public you will be ebitda positive since Feb 2008?

Isn't this misleading the investing public???

ACE Stocks: The good apples of ACE?

The following was published on Star Biz last Saturday: The good apples of ACE

The section on Green Packet caught my attention! Oh yeah, my favourite EBITDA stock. LOL!  ( Past postings:

• .... Green Packet
  Another ACE Market migrant is Green Packet Bhd, a mobile broadband networking solutions provider listed on the Mesdaq Market in 2005, and which transferred in July 2007.
  
  While still a loss-making company, group managing director (MD) and chief executive officer (CEO) Puan Chan Cheong noted in a recent media briefing that losses have narrowed year-on-year with the company on-track to achieve EBITDA or earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation break-even target by year-end.

Yeah it's still a loss-making company.

Oh yeah babe! The CEO had kept on repeating and repeating and repeating and repeating and repeating and repeating and repeating that Green Packet is on-track to achieve EBITA earnings before year-end. And since Feb 2008, we are still waiting for it to happen!

So is Green Pack a good apple?

Now there's only one true statement in the stock market.

A stock is a good stock if it makes money for you and the stock is a damn bad stock if you lose money!

Everything else does not matter.

Let's look at before and after Green Packet migrated to the main board.

18 July 2007 was the migration date: GPACKET-Transfer from Mesdaq Market to Main Board of Bursa Securities

Here's Green Packet chart as a MeSS-daq stock.

Look at that!

Now that's an awesome stock chart, yes?

How?

Stock is up... I guess I cannot argue much that Green Packet is not a good Green apple of ACE. (LOL! Sorry I cannot resist the pun! )

Now look at this... this is Green Packet performance since it migrated to the main board.

How then?

What kind of apple is Green Packet?

This is how Green Packet had performed since listing. The dark vertical line highlights 18 July 2007, the day Green Packet migrated to the main board.

ps: This is a good example to show that the 'migration' doesn't mean the stock would be a stock market winner. Look at Green Packet. It had crash and burned since migrating to the main board.

And Green Packet Says The Magic Word Once More

Guess what article I saw on the Star Biz? Green Packet on track to achieve EBITDA target

EBITDA target again???

Quote from today's papers:

• Green Packet Bhd is on track to achieve its EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation) break-even target by this year-end, according to the group's managing director and chief executive officer Puan Chan Cheong.

New entry alert!!

LOLOLOLOL!

Flashback: (refer posting dated 17 feb 2011: Green Packet Makes More Promises.... again. )

• Feb 2008: we expect the WiMAX business to be ebitda (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation ) break-even this year,"
• May 2008: we are targeting EBITDA positive by end of next year.
• May 2009: P1 will be EBITDA will break-even from next year.
• Feb 2010: concurred that will be EBITDA positive in the second half of this year.
• May 10: the company remained optimistic that it will be able to achieve an Ebitda break even
• June 2010: Green Packet Bhd’s target to turn earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) positive by year-end may be delayed to next year
• Sep 2010: Puan added that Green Packet is maintaining that its Ebitda (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) will break even by the end of this year.
• Nov 2010: "We're confident of breaking even no later than the first quarter. Ebitda (earnings before interest, tax depreciation and amortisation) turnaround is really at the corner," chief executive officer C.C. Puan said at a press conference in Petaling Jaya, Selangor, yesterday.
• Feb 2011: defers its target of being EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation) positive to end-2011.
• May 2011: Green Packet Bhd is on track to achieve its EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation) break-even target by this year-end, according to the group's managing director and chief executive officer Puan Chan Cheong.

So Green Packet announced its earnings last night.

On Feb 2011, I posted Green Packet: 12th Consecutive Quarters Of Losses, 36 Month Of Losses And ...

I shall re-use that same template. ( Lazy lah)

Some facts. (new comments in black bold)

Fact. It lost some 100.112 million for the quarter. (It lost some 37.893 million for the current quarter)

Fact. This is the 12th consecutive quarter of losses. 36 months of losses. (13th consecutive quarter of losses. 40 months of losses)

Fact. Green Packet's total losses for last 36 months equals some 439.924 million! (Green Packet's total losses for last 40 months equals some 477.817 million!)

Fact. Green Packet raised some 98 million via rights issue last Aug. 2009.

Fact, Jan 2010. Green Packet raised some 69.176 million from a share placement.

Fact, Green Packet recently raised 322.910 million from issuance of Convertible Preference Share to SK Telekoms. ( see Sep 2010 posting: Update on Green Packet )

Fact. After tonight's earnings, Green Packet said it had some 171.962 million and some 238.190 million in borrowings. (After tonight's earnings, Green Packet said it had some 90.462 million - wow! where the money went? money heaven? And borrowings soared to 367.888 million!!!!)

Green Packet Makes More Promises.... again.

Despite's Green Packet's 12th Consecutive Quarters Of Losses, 36 Month Of Losses ... , Green Packet continued its promises to the local investing market.

On today's Business Times:

• Green Packet Bhd, which recorded a revenue of RM394 million for financial year 2010, expects a 25 per cent increase this year. Its group managing director, CC Puan, said the revenue growth reflected the company's continuous efforts to expand network and market share locally and abroad.

25 per cent increase in sales revenue for current fiscal year?

Just for the record, for its fiscal year 2009, Green Packet had sales revenue of 217 million. Last night, Green Packet announced that its sales revenue soared to 394 million.

Yeah, mighty impressive growth with its sales revenue.

And what good has it done to its bottom line?

Nothing!

Can someome ask Green Packet what is their losses after tax this fiscal year????

And it continued to burn money drastically again despite of its 322 million Convertible Preference Share issuance to SK Telekom.

On Star Business: P1 confident of 450,000 subscribers

• Thus, it is also deferring its target of being EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation) positive to end-2011, as it focuses to aggressively acquire nomadic customers from the mobile broadband segment.
  The nomadic segment refers to the mobile broadband services. Prior to this, P1 was focused on capturing market share from the fixed broadband segment.
  Previously, Green Packet had mentioned that it would be EBITDA positive in the first quarter of its financial year ending Dec 31, 2011.

LOLOLOLOLOLOL!!!!

This is getting seriously embarrassing!

Why continue make such empty promise when you can't deliver?

Let me add this new entry to the list of promises made previously. From the posting Green Packet: 11th Consecutive Quarters Of Losses, 33 Months Of Losses And....

• Feb 2008: we expect the WiMAX business to be ebitda (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation ) break-even this year,"
• May 2008: we are targeting EBITDA positive by end of next year.
• May 2009: P1 will be EBITDA will break-even from next year.
• Feb 2010: concurred that will be EBITDA positive in the second half of this year.
• May 10: the company remained optimistic that it will be able to achieve an Ebitda break even
• June 2010: Green Packet Bhd’s target to turn earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) positive by year-end may be delayed to next year
• Sep 2010: Puan added that Green Packet is maintaining that its Ebitda (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) will break even by the end of this year.
• Nov 2010: "We're confident of breaking even no later than the first quarter. Ebitda (earnings before interest, tax depreciation and amortisation) turnaround is really at the corner," chief executive officer C.C. Puan said at a press conference in Petaling Jaya, Selangor, yesterday.
• Feb 2011: defers its target of being EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation) positive to end-2011.

Yeah.. Nov 2010: "We're confident of breaking even no later than the first quarter. Ebitda (earnings before interest, tax depreciation and amortisation) turnaround is really at the corner," chief executive officer C.C. Puan said at a press conference

Seriously eh?

Talk is really cheap with such abundance of supply!

Green Packet: 12th Consecutive Quarters Of Losses, 36 Month Of Losses And ...

Green Packet announced its earnings tonight.

Some facts.

Fact. It lost some 100.112 million for the quarter.

Fact. This is the 12th consecutive quarter of losses. 36 month of losses.

Fact. Green Packet's total losses for last 36 months equals some 439.924 million!

Fact. Green Packet raised some 98 million via rights issue last Aug. 2009.

Fact, Jan 2010. Green Packet raised some 69.176 million from a share placement.

Fact, Green Packet recently raised 322.910 million from issuance of Convertible Preference Share to SK Telekoms. ( see Sep 2010 posting: Update on Green Packet )

Fact. After tonight's earnings, Green Packet said it had some 171.962 million and some 238.190 million in borrowings.

Compare these facts to the posting made on Nov 2010: Green Packet: 11th Consecutive Quarters Of Losses, 33 Months Of Losses And....

.......

Green Packet Downgraded From 1.40 To 0.80

On the Edge: HDBSVR downgrades Green Packet to Hold, cuts TP to 80c from RM1.40

• HDBSVR downgrades Green Packet to Hold, cuts TP to 80c from RM1.40
  Written by theedgemalaysia.com
  Wednesday, 02 February 2011 09:25
  
  KUALA LUMPUR: Hwang DBS Vickers Research said the recovery for Green Packet has been delayed and it expects weak 4Q2010 results.
  
  The research house said on Wednesday, Feb 2 it had slashed the earnings before interest, tax and amortisation (EBITDA) for Green Packet by 56% to 78%.
  
  “Higher sales and marketing costs and declining average revenue per user could postpone EBITDA turnaround to later this year. Downgrade to Hold, TP cut to 80 sen (from RM1.40) based on sume of the parts,” said Hwang DBS Vickers Research.

Err..

This is yet another great mystery for me.

The target price is SLASHED from 1.40 to 0.80.

Ahem.... that's a target revision of close to 43%!!!

Revised down 'so little' and the recommendation is HOLD????

More Chat On Green Packet

• A Better PJ said...
  
  Fair reply Moolah. my take...
  
  Customer Acquisition Rates...
  I also notice that these slowed in the middle of the year which they explained as a result of reducing there A&P while they sorted out their network capacity issues.
  
  In their own announcements they are targeting the 280,000 during Q4 of 2010 on the back of a new A&P campaign...but you're right, its a tall order. However as you point out they have achieved 43,000 in a single quarter last year, on a much smaller/weaker network.
  
  The EBITDA Thingee...
  A critical measurement for investors, especially for a start up company, is to see whether an operation has the ability to generate cash. If it has you have many more options available for funding business expansion.
  
  Capital Expenditure, RM 534m and rising...
  that's what it takes these days...as a minimum. YTL have projected a capex of 2.5bn, it will take that for each of the mobile telcos to upgrade to a comparable 4G LTE.
  
  Institutional investors will take in interest in this stock after 1 or 2 profitable (EBITDA) quarters, at which time trading volumes and price would shift substntially.
  
  The opportunity for the private investor is to take a view on if/when this would happen and to get in just ahead of the institutions and to make that assessment you would need to be tracking the key numbers of EBITDA, revenue, ARPU and churn.
  
  You would also need to take a view on how it differentiates from the other wireless broadband competitors and whether the product range, packages and promotions can deliver their targets.
  
  That's why I would take a close look at their model, their strategy for differentiation and growth, and their management team, to see if there is an opportunity for a discounted investment

Some second opinion from me. I could be wrong, so do take your dose of garam.

• Customer Acquisition Rates...
  
  I also notice that these slowed in the middle of the year which they explained as a result of reducing there A&P while they sorted out their network capacity issues. In their own announcements they are targeting the 280,000 during Q4 of 2010 on the back of a new A&P campaign...but you're right, its a tall order. However as you point out they have achieved 43,000 in a single quarter last year, on a much smaller/weaker network.

Let's consider the 43,00 new subscribers issue.

As you have pointed out, 43,000 new subscribers were added during a much smaller/weaker network. Now I assume that you are suggesting that now things are different and I would assume that Green Packet's P1 'had' improved to a 'bigger/stronger' network. I hope this is a fair assumption. But if this is the case, why the rather drastic slowdown in new subscribers growth rate? Remember it went from 43,000 new subscribers in 4Q09, 35,000 new subscribers in 1Q10, 21,000 new subscribers in 2Q10 and 22,000 new subscribers in 3Q10. I would be wrong but since if the network is bigger and stronger, than naturally P1 would be getting more subscribers?

Food for thought: Almost a year ago, Nov 2009, I posted the following: P1 Wimax: Honey Have You Cut It? Part II. I made the following exercise:

• Ever tried google the phrase 'wimax problems' and limit your search to pages from Malaysia? (try this google search link: here )

Just now, I tried a new search. I search for 'p1 wimax problems 2010' or http://www.google.com.my/search?hl=en&q=p1+wimax+problem+2010&aq=3&aqi=g2&aql=&oq=p1+wimax+prob&gs_rfai=

Some 2010 posts of interests.

• Anyone experience problem with P1 Wimax lately?‎ - 10 posts - 21 Oct 2010
• http://forum.lowyat.net/index.php?showtopic=1251636&view=findpost&p=35743885
• P1 WIMAX - Network Service Problem Anastasyea : Kisah Disebalik ...
• P1 WIMAX - Slowest broadband around ( see the last few pages)

And the EBITDA.

• The EBITDA Thingee...
  A critical measurement for investors, especially for a start up company, is to see whether an operation has the ability to generate cash. If it has you have many more options available for funding business expansion.

A crticial measurement? I am sorry but perhaps I am a lousy investor because what I feel is even more critical is the BOTTOM line. The moola. Yes, show me the money. End of the day, is the profit that counts and not the measurements. And what is more critical the I-T-D-A in that formula is a reality. The INTEREST is real. TAXES are real. DEPRECIATION and AMORTISATION of assets/plants/machinery are real. End of the day, these items matters to the investor. The profit is what's most important, for me. And yes, I beg to differ but it's rather pointless to talk about EBITDA. Not for me. And if anyone disagrees, well I would more likely to step back and say I am flawed. That's my opinion. Yeah, and it's not an important one, since many would be quick to point out there are many ways to make money in the stock markets.

Anyway, since you talked about the ability to generate cash, now that's an interesting issue.

Sep 2009, the following was posted: Would You Want To Invest In Green Packet?

• As per Green Packet's report, it had 242.467 million then and no debts!
  A company which was flushed with cash.
  All 242 million! And this was for financial period ending 31/12/2007.

That was before Green Packet decided to dive into Wimax.

Now I would not use current Green Packet's earnings as a comparison because it's cash was boosted by SK Telekom 322 million Convertible Preference Share exercise. Instead I would use the numbers posted in Aug 2010.

• Green Packet said it had some 102.800 million cash and some 264.214 million in borrowings. ( from posting: Green Packet Announces 10th Consecutive Quarter Of Losses! )

And during this period...

• Aug 2009. Green Packet raised some 98 million via rights issue.
• Jan 2010. Green Packet raised some 69.176 million from a share placement.

So from a company that had cash of 242.467 million for the period ending 31/12/2007, the company turned into a company having 102.800 million cash and some 264.214 million by Aug 2010. And the company raised some 167.176 from corporate exercises like rights issue and share placement.

Well I might be wrong again but I just don't see how and where Green Packet was generating any cash at all.

• Capital Expenditure, RM 534m and rising...
  that's what it takes these days...as a minimum...

And that's exactly the point.

The capital expenditure is simply mind boggling. And yes, I was shocked to read that another 40 million is said to be spend on advertising and promotion according to the Business Times article the other day.

So the simple question I would ask is if this Wimax business is even viable? Spending millions and millions to achieve how much profit?

I take a look at some of the big names.

• Clearwire: http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=CLWR
• ALVR: http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=ALVR

Do they even have profits?

Perhaps one day Green Packet could make money. Yeah, never say never. :=).

However, the thing I would ask again is if the money made could ever justify all the money spent?

ps: If I am a potential investor, I would ask myself a simple question. Why insist on this one?

Replies: A More Balanced View On Green Packet

Got the following set of comments from the posting: Green Packet: 11th Consecutive Quarters Of Losses, 33 Months Of Losses And....

• A Better PJ said...
  For an infrastructure business GP are doing pretty well with some positive trends on EBITDA, revenues and very importantly customer churn rates of below 5% (below telco sector average) and P1 subscriptions growing by over 20,000 per quarter...without much A&P.
  
  All of this indicates good progress on service delivery, customer satisfaction and financials.
  
  Ebitda is validly a more relevant measurement of operational performance for a business in its infrastructure development phase because it indicates more accurately a business's ability to generate cash.
  
  Real success measurement for a mature broadband/telco p[layer would be the combination of market share (subscribers), churn (satisfaction levels), ARPU (customer value).
  
  P1 4G has maintained very impressive ARPU (RM 81) and churn (4%) particularly for a start up....so the tipping point will arrive when it reaches a critical mass of subscribers....as indicated by the ebitda positive target of 280,000 subscribers.
  
  I hope this will help with to balance the impression given by your article(s).

Many thanks for your valued comments and I certainly am more than happy to publish your comments for all to read.

Just a brief comment on the EBITDA thingee. I am sure you are aware that I had been blogging on Green Packet for a long time now. See the label Green Packet for the rest of the postings. The point is Green Packet had been saying and saying and saying EBITDA positive since Feb 2008. It's now Nov 2010. Now of course, I am more than wrong, but if I were given a choice to make a feedback, I would dearly hope to see the management focus MORE on the company's performance than continuous shouts to the investing public that they are going to be EBITDA positive by such and such a date. To my flawed eyes, they are like desperately trying to sell their company. I would have preferred them to show more and talk less. That's my flawed view.

Now Green Packet had been stressing out loud they can be profitable IF they hit that 280,000 subscribers.

Now I am confused.

Seriously.

Let me use the following article dated Sep 2010, as a point of reference (I do hope the article data is correct): Green Packet: Stepping up subscriber acquisition. The following statement from it.

• The acquisition of new subscribers slowed to 35,000 in 1Q10, after hitting a high of 43,000 in 4Q09, and declined further to 21,000 in 2Q10. This was partly attributed to the company’s move to focus on enhancing its network quality — including additional capacity for congested sites — and customer service in the last few months.

43,000 in 4Q09, 35,000 in 1Q10 and 21,000 in 2Q10.

Now that's a declining rate, yes?

In 2Q10, Green Packet said it has 196,000 subscribers. ( source: here ) On today's Star Biz article, GPacket aims to double revenue to RM400m, Green Packet said it has 218,000 subscribers. An addition of just 22,000.

Which means 43,000 new subscribers in 4Q09, 35,000 new subscribers in 1Q10, 21,000 new subscribers in 2Q10 and 22,000 new subscribers in 3Q10.

And Green Packet's target is 280,000 by the next 2 quarters.

Well, I am confused and I am asking myself if the 4 most recent quarters of new subscribers growth suggest that the target of 280,000 is possible?

How?

Well I guess it won't be a big deal because all Green Packet has to do is come out and say their target is delayed by another quarter or two.

And then on the Edge Financial Daily: Green Packet on track to be profitable by 1Q

• Over the years, Green Packet has already incurred RM534 million in capital expenditure

WOW!

Over rm 534 million spent. Another 40 million is said to be spend on advertising and promotion according to the Business Times article this morning.

Huge numbers eh?

And if and when Green Packet achieves being profitable, I wonder when if they will ever recuperate their cost of investment.

Green Packet: 11th Consecutive Quarters Of Losses, 33 Months Of Losses And....

Green Packet had been making huge promises over the past couple of years. Here's the summary of remarks made.

• Feb 2008: we expect the WiMAX business to be ebitda (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation ) break-even this year,"
• May 2008: we are targeting EBITDA positive by end of next year.
• May 2009: P1 will be EBITDA will break-even from next year.
• Feb 2010: concurred that will be EBITDA positive in the second half of this year.
• May 10: the company remained optimistic that it will be able to achieve an Ebitda break even
• June 2010: Green Packet Bhd’s target to turn earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) positive by year-end may be delayed to next year
• Sep 2010: Puan added that Green Packet is maintaining that its Ebitda (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) will break even by the end of this year.

It's now Nov 2010.

Green Packet announced its earnings last night. Any EBITDA positive? Nope. ( Yeah, it's so incredible that it's now 2010 and Green Packet still talks about EBIDTA! )

Here's the facts. I will update the list. The numbers in blue represents the current data and strike out represents the past 'facts'.

Fact. It lost some 44 million 35.9 million 28.912 million for the quarter.

Fact. This is the 9th 10th 11th consecutive quarter of losses. 33 month of losses,

Fact. Green Packet's total losses for last 27 30 33 months equals some 275 310.9 339.812 million!

Fact. Green Packet raised some 98 million via rights issue last Aug. 2009.

Fact, Jan 2010. Green Packet raised some 69.176 million from a share placement.

Fact, Green Packet recently raised 322.910 million from issuance of Convertible Preference Share to SK Telekoms. ( see Sep 2010 posting: Update on Green Packet )

Fact. After tonight's earnings, Green Packet said it had some 111.699 102.800 280.756 million cash and some 256.376 264.214 237.010 million in borrowings.

Yeah, thanks to the convertible preference shares, Green Packet balance sheet improved.

So how?

11th consecutive quarters of losses, 33 months of losses!

Well... the following is what Green Packet has to say on Business Times.

• Green Packet posts Q3 net loss but sees turnaround
  
  By Rupinder Singh Published: 2010/11/16
  
  BROADBAND service provider Green Packet Bhd (0082) posted a third quarter net loss of RM28.9 million but maintained that it will turn an operating profit in the fourth quarter or the first quarter of 2011.
  
  "We're confident of breaking even no later than the first quarter. Ebitda (earnings before interest, tax depreciation and amortisation) turnaround is really at the corner," chief executive officer C.C. Puan said at a press conference in Petaling Jaya, Selangor, yesterday.
  
  To meet the target, it aims to hit 280,000 subscribers and deliver up to 500,000 modems or WiMAX CPE (Customer Premise Equipments) by the end of this year.
  
  "The group is in very good shape. Ebitda margin continues to improve by the quarter with a 9 per cent improvement from the second quarter of 2010. We are closing in on our target of 280,000 subscribers and we have secured orders for everything our supply chain can deliver for the Solutions business," Puan said.
  
  Green Packet has put aside RM40 million for advertising and promotion activities this year and will add another 15 per cent for 2011.
  
  As at September 30, Green Packet's capital expenditure incurred stood at RM534 million.
  
  It would spend another RM500 million in the next two years to increase its broadband coverage to 65 per cent of the country.
  
  Its third quarter losses pushes its nine month cumulative losses to RM109.5 million.
  
  Green Packet said its operating expenses had risen to RM129.7 million in the third quarter from RM94.1 million a year earlier, mainly due to its planned investment to deploy fourth generation services.
  
  Revenue jumped 60 per cent in the third quarter to RM100.8 million, mainly due to more subscribers for the broadband business, new customers for the solution business and better revenue from the international wholesale voice business

OMG!

OMG! OMG! OMG!

PLEASE tell me that I am reading it wrongly!!!!!!

• "We're confident of breaking even no later than the first quarter. Ebitda (earnings before interest, tax depreciation and amortisation) turnaround is really at the corner," chief executive officer C.C. Puan said at a press conference in Petaling Jaya, Selangor, yesterday.

SeriouslYYYYY!

What's the point of making such statements and then continously fail to deliver????

Yeah... let me update and repeat right here again....

• Feb 2008: we expect the WiMAX business to be ebitda (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation ) break-even this year,"
• May 2008: we are targeting EBITDA positive by end of next year.
• May 2009: P1 will be EBITDA will break-even from next year.
• Feb 2010: concurred that will be EBITDA positive in the second half of this year.
• May 10: the company remained optimistic that it will be able to achieve an Ebitda break even
• June 2010: Green Packet Bhd’s target to turn earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) positive by year-end may be delayed to next year
• Sep 2010: Puan added that Green Packet is maintaining that its Ebitda (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) will break even by the end of this year.
• Nov 2010: "We're confident of breaking even no later than the first quarter. Ebitda (earnings before interest, tax depreciation and amortisation) turnaround is really at the corner," chief executive officer C.C. Puan said

Update on Green Packet

Blogged on 17 Aug 2010: Green Packet Announces 10th Consecutive Quarter Of Losses!

I asked one question which needed to be answered: 'At this rate, got enough cash ah?

Let me reproduce what was written:

----------------------------

Green Packet announced its earnings last night and as expected, the earnings were horrible.

How should I put everything into perspective? Well, on 13th May 2010, I wrote the following posting: Oh Yeah, Green Packet Lost Less Money. I list out a list of facts. I reckon it's best I update the list of facts.

I will update the list and use red to strike out the past 'facts'.

Fact. It lost some 44 million 35.9 million for the quarter.

Fact. This is the 9th 10th consecutive quarter of losses. 30 month of losses,

Fact. Green Packet's total losses for last 27 30 months equals some 275 310.9 million!

Fact. Green Packet raised some 98 million via rights issue last Aug. 2009.

Fact, Jan 2010. Green Packet raised some 69.176 million from a share placement.

Fact. After the rights issue, the following quarter, November 2009, Green Packet said it had some 174 million cash and some 209 million in borrowings.

Fact. After tonight's earnings, or 6 9 months later, Green Packet said it had some 111.699 102.800 million cash and some 256.376 264.214 million in borrowings.

Fact, Nov 2009, Green Packet had 68,691 in trade payables. In Feb 2010, trade payables grew to 159.192 million. Today payables total some 188 200.870 million. (Why so much payables nowadays? Who is Green Packet not paying? )

So how?

Green Packet owes its bankers more money, yes? It's debts had increased.

It has less money, despite the rights issue and placement of shares.

So is less cash and more debt good?

At this rate, got enough cash ah?

------------------------
I forgot all about P1's deal with SK Telekom.

GREEN PACKET BERHAD ("GPB" OR "THE COMPANY") PROPOSED ISSUANCE OF 979,474 CLASS C ISLAMIC IRREDEEMABLE CONVERTIBLE PREFERENCE SHARES OF RM0.10 EACH (“CLASS C ICPS-i”) IN PACKET ONE NETWORKS (MALAYSIA) SDN BHD TO SK TELECOM CO., LTD. FOR A TOTAL CASH CONSIDERATION OF RM322.91 MILLION (EQUIVALENT TO USD100 MILLION) (“PROPOSED ISSUANCE”)

Yeah.. many thanks to SK Telekom, Green Packet does have extra 322 million to burn.

ps: This posting is merely to state the facts yo!

Seriously? I do not make postings with any hidden intent.

Wait... here's my disclaimer again.

Disclaimer
1. I am a nobody.
2. I am not responsible for anyone's investments.
3. I am not a sotong. :D
4. I am certainly not an independent investment advisor.
5. Since I am not an in dependant investment advisor, I cannot guarantee that you should lose money.
6. Most important, I find no motivation to talk about stock price movements. Yeah, I do not indulge in guessing what a stock price will or will not do. So please spare me all the chats that you think this stock will go down by so much or this stock will soar by so much.

Article On Green Packet

I was reading Star Business version on Green Packet's losses: Aggressive broadband rollout pulls Green Packet deeper in red

• .... At a press conference yesterday, group managing director and chief executive officer C.C. Puan maintained that the company’s earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) would turn positive by the first quarter of next year.
  
  “We’re confident of breaking even no later than the first quarter. We’re looking at full turnaround next year in terms of both EBITDA and profitability,” he said.
  
  Puan added that P1 had been in operations for under two years and breaking even within that time period for a telco was unheard of.
  
  “P1 is less than two years old. It is unprecedented for a telco to break even within two years in this country. Other telcos such as DiGi and Celcom took longer.”
  
  As at June 30, Green Packet had a net debt of RM99.18mil. Its capital expenditure incurred stood at RM517mil. Puan said the company would allocate RM500mil in capital expenditure for the next two years to increase its broadband coverage to 65% of the country.
  
  For the period ended June 30, its cash and cash equivalents stood at RM103mil while its debts totalled RM158.91mil.

Debts totalled 158.91 million????

Here's the section taken from Green Packet's earnings.

GPB - Unaudited Results Q2 2010.pdf

See page 11:

The balance sheet, page 2.



I am baffled.

Isn't guaranteed redeemable convertible exchangeable bonds a form of debt security? And isn't a debt security a form of debt?

Isn't hire purchase and finance lease liabilities another form of debt?

So bank borrowings only 158.91 million?

huh?

Green Packet Announces 10th Consecutive Quarter Of Losses!

Green Packet announced its earnings last night and as expected, the earnings were horrible.

How should I put everything into perspective? Well, on 13th May 2010, I wrote the following posting: Oh Yeah, Green Packet Lost Less Money. I list out a list of facts. I reckon it's best I update the list of facts.

I will update the list and use red to strike out the past 'facts'.

Fact. It lost some 44 million 35.9 million for the quarter.

Fact. This is the 9th 10th consecutive quarter of losses. 30 month of losses,

Fact. Green Packet's total losses for last 27 30 months equals some 275 310.9 million!

Fact. Green Packet raised some 98 million via rights issue last Aug. 2009.

Fact, Jan 2010. Green Packet raised some 69.176 million from a share placement.

Fact. After the rights issue, the following quarter, November 2009, Green Packet said it had some 174 million cash and some 209 million in borrowings.

Fact. After tonight's earnings, or 6 9 months later, Green Packet said it had some 111.699 102.800 million cash and some 256.376 264.214 million in borrowings.

Fact, Nov 2009, Green Packet had 68,691 in trade payables. In Feb 2010, trade payables grew to 159.192 million. Today payables total some 188 200.870 million. (Why so much payables nowadays? Who is Green Packet not paying? )

So how?

Green Packet owes its bankers more money, yes? It's debts had increased.

It has less money, despite the rights issue and placement of shares.

So is less cash and more debt good?

At this rate, got enough cash ah?

------------------------
Incredible eh?

On today's Business Times: Green Packet to spend RM150m more on network

• ... This year, we've allocated RM250 million in capital expenditure for network upgrade. So far, we've spent RM100 million in the first half of the year," he told reporters at a briefing in Petaling Jaya yesterday.
  
  "We have the resources to fund these investments. Our partner SK Telecom has committed a certain amount and there is RM500 million from our vendor ZTE (Malaysia) Corp Sdn Bhd," Puan said, in response to a query if the group has enough money to carry on with its pledge to invest RM1 billion in infrastructure upgrade.
  
  In its filing to Bursa Malaysia yesterday, Green Packet saw its second quarter net loss expand to RM35.64 million from RM27.87 million a year ago.
  
  "The higher losses were mainly attributed to higher amortisation and depreciation cost in relation to aggressive rollout of broadband infrastructure," Puan said.
  
  He remained hopeful of achieving an Ebitda (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) break-even by the end of this year....

LOL!

Only in Bursa Malaysia where a company can lose money for 30 months, 10 consecutive quarters of losses and have the boss continues to talk and talk..

• "We have the resources to fund these investments..

LOL! At the rate the cash is burned, despite the rights issues, the placements, the boss is saying they got enough resources... let's wait and see. :D

• "The higher losses were mainly attributed to higher amortisation and depreciation cost in relation to aggressive rollout of broadband infrastructure," , Puan said.

Hello Puan, the investing public do read the cash flow statements... sometimes.

Here's your cash flow statement from your earnings report posted last night.

Let's see for the current fiscal year 2010... so far the depreciation and amortisation would total some 27.542 million.

Of course compared to previous year, it's crystal clear that the depreciation and amortisation cost is much higher.

BUT....... EVEN if we minus out this figure (27.542 million) from 2010's first 6 months operating loss of 77.165 million, we would get an operating loss of 49.623 million.

Last year? Green Packet same period had an operating loss of only 44.8 million ( and mind you this included depreciation and amortisation worth some 6.062 million)

So was Green Packet's higher losses were mainly attributed to higher amortisation and depreciation cost, as claimed by Puan?????

And oh yeah, Puan again claimed...

• He remained hopeful of achieving an Ebitda (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) break-even by the end of this year....

I simply love the EBITDA break-even!

LOL! LOL!

As per the posting, Ooops! Green Packet Now Says... let me keep track again..

• Feb 2008: we expect the WiMAX business to be ebitda (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation ) break-even this year,"
• May 2008: we are targeting EBITDA positive by end of next year.
• May 2009, P1 will be EBITDA will break-even from next year.
• Feb 2010, concurred that will be EBITDA positive in the second half of this year.
• May 10 the company remained optimistic that it will be able to achieve an Ebitda break even
• June 2010, Green Packet Bhd’s target to turn earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) positive by year-end may be delayed to next year
• Aug 2010, hopeful of achieving an Ebitda (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) break-even by the end of this year.

ps: some can really, really talk ... :P

Ooops! Green Packet Now Says...

Another superb weekend Saturday entertainment article on Green Packet.

Firstly, I just blogged on the Wednesday, Green Packet Boss Keeps Saying EBITDA Positive... But...

In summary:

• Feb 2008: we expect the WiMAX business to be ebitda (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation ) break-even this year,"
• May 2008: we are targeting EBITDA positive by end of next year.
• May 2009, P1 will be EBITDA will break-even from next year.
• Feb 2010, concurred that will be EBITDA positive in the second half of this year.
• May 10 the company remained optimistic that it will be able to achieve an Ebitda break even
• June 2010, Green Packet Bhd’s target to turn earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) positive by year-end may be delayed to next year

And the very latest, on today's business times..

• For this year, its capex will be some RM250 million. It has already spent RM100 million on upgrading network and expanding coverage in the first half of the year.
  
  Puan added that Green Packet is maintaining that its Ebitda (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) will break even by the end of this year.
  
  "Our target remains the same but SK Telecom has expressed a few strategies it may want us to look into which include being more aggressive in our coverage expansion, advertising and promotion and ensuring the customer's experience," he said.
  
  These considerations will require further investments, which in turn raises operating expenditure that could have an impact on its Ebitda.
  
  "We are currently consulting with our new shareholder and will share the new plan once it is firmed up within the next three to six months. They may want us to be a little more long-term in our plan to have a better market penetration instead of focusing on the financial," he said.
  
  However, he re-affirmed that the company will reduce its (net) losses and negative Ebidta as it improves on a quarter-on-quarter basis.
  
  Read more: Green Packet eyes region here

Ooopsie daisy me!!!

The boss has now changed the tune again. From 'delayed to next year', it's now will break even by the end of this year.

ROFLMAO!

He just cannot be serious!

ps: Capex this year 250 million! I thought it was supposed to be 300 million!!! ( see P1 Wimax: Honey Have You Cut It?)

ps: before this year, Green Packet had already spend some 300 million in capex.

ps/ps: where is my calculator.

ps/ps/ps: I wonder if I can count/estimate the return of investment.

ps/ps/ps/ps: some can really, really talk ...

Green Packet Boss Keeps Saying EBITDA Positive... But...

I always like to gauge a CEO or MD by what they say in the press.

For example, let's take the case of Green Packet.

On today's Edge Financial Daily: Green Packet’s target to be Ebitda positive may be delayed

• Green Packet Bhd’s target to turn earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) positive by year-end may be delayed to next year following South Korea’s SK Telecom buying a 25.8% stake in its subsidiary and WiMAX arm, Packet One Networks (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd (P1), for US$100 million (RM325 million).
  
  “We were targeting for Ebitda to break even and turn positive by end of 2010, but after discussions with our new partner (SK Telecom), we are going to be more aggressive this year in expanding our network, advertising and gaining subscriber base,” said Green Packet group managing director C C Puan after the signing ceremony to seal the alliance between P1 and SK Telecom here yesterday.P1 CEO Michael Lai said the new target was also dependent on the subscribers gained and the average revenue per user (ARPU) by next year.

Firstly, it's strange to see current day MD and CEO talks about EBITDA.

Comeon... what's good is the earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) to the minority shareholder?

Common sense question? What about tax? Tax no need to pay? Depreciation and amortisation is not required?

Comeon.. no need twist and turn and no need to insult the minority shareholder's intelligence. Just tell us the net earnings. Yeah, where is ze moola? Just show us the moola!!!

That's all the minority shareholders is interested in.

And EBITDA positive. So that's their plan.

Anyway... let's indulge with this six letter word and let's put away ze brains for a moment and pretend and yeah, let's imagine that EBITDA is the holy grail and it is so, so so important. Ok?

Anyway what do we have? Iin today's news article, Green Packet says their plans to be EBITDA positive has to be postpone to next year.

Let's travel back to time. Hehe.. back to the past. :P

Feb 2008. Green Packet aims to regain sales momentum after weaker year

• Managing director Puan Chan Cheong said that in terms of profitability, the company's solution business ought to contribute "good double-digit" net profit growth this year, while its WiMAX business will still be in "investment mode".
  
  "Nevertheless, we expect the WiMAX business to be ebitda (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation ) break-even this year," he told the media in Kuala Lumpur yesterday.

That was the promise made in Feb 2008. Star Business carried an even more bolder version: Green Packet sees 100% growth in revenue this year

• KUALA LUMPUR: Green Packet Bhd, which reported 24% higher revenue of RM122.84mil for the year ended Dec 31 (FY07), expects a 100% growth in revenue this year as its diversification plans start to bear fruit. Group managing director and chief executive officer Puan Chan Cheong was confident of the “achievable” target, as the company had diversified its markets to cushion the impact of a slowdown in any one region.

ps: He was talking about REVENUE growth and not earnings growth.. :P

May 2008: WiMAX major earner for Green Packet

• “For all three phases, we will require funding of about RM700mil. Once the network is commercialised, we are targeting to reach EBITDA positive by the end of next year,'' said Puan.

May 2008: EBITDA positive by end of next year.

7 Feb 2009: Green Packet set for a comeback

• Despite the heavy capital expenditure required for the rollout of WiMAX, Puan expects earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of Green Packet’s service pillar to turn positive by year-end.

Feb 2009: EBITDA positive by year end.

May 2009, Green Packer losses increased by SEVEN FOLDS!

On Business Times. Green Packet Q1 loss widens on broadband rollout cost

• GREEN Packet Bhd, a company that develops telecommunication solutions and offers wireless broadband services, said its first- quarter net loss widened more than sevenfold despite higher revenue, due to the cost of rolling out its wireless broadband services.

Yeah.. see how pointless it is to talk about REVENUE growth! What's good is it to have higher revenue growth when the losses widens more?

• "By the end of this year, P1 would be Ebitda (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) break-even and will be cashflow positive from next year," said Puan

Aha... May 2009, boss said EBITDA will break-even from next year.

Ahem.. EBITDA will break even from next year.

12 Feb 2010: GPacket Q4 loss up on higher cost

• Puan concurred that the group could return to positive EBITDA in the second half of this year.This would be achieved through additional customers for its international devices as well as connection management solutions business, besides more than doubling its WiMAX current network infrastructure and subsciber base this year.Green Packet expects to spend RM250mil to double network sites from 650 currently.Its subscriber base is also expected to more than double by the year-end from 140,000 as at the fourth quarter of last year.

12 Feb 2010, EBITDA positive in the second half of this year.

And recently, May 14th. Green Packet believes worst is behind it

• Although the firm's first quarter net loss expanded to RM44 million, from RM22 million in the same period last year, the company remained optimistic that it will be able to achieve an Ebitda (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and ammortisation) break even by the end of this year.For the first quarter ended March 31 this year, it posted a narrower Ebitda loss of RM29.8 million, an improvement from a loss of RM56.2 million in the fourth quarter of last year."These are planned losses, as we need to invest heavily to roll out our broadband coverage. In the second quarter of 2010, we expect (Ebitda) losses to be narrower, and by the end of this year, we will break even," said group chief executive officer Puan Chan Cheong after its media briefing in Petaling Jaya yesterday.Puan attributed the improvements in remaining quarters to its growing broadband subscriber base, as well as expansion in coverage.

May 2010, still say EBITDA positive by end of the year.

Now 30 June 2010. The EBITDA plan is delayed to next year!

How?

And in the meantime, since not EBITDA positive, the losses keeps coming for Green Packet!

So how exactly would you gauge the boss?

And do you want to hear him utter this six letter word... E-B-I-T-D-A again????

Seriously, don't you think it's much better that the company just deliver the result than to make such statements to the investing public?

Doncha?

Review Of Green Packet Earnings Again

Hmm... I saw OSK report on Green Packet. (ps: I posted this last night: Oh Yeah, Green Packet Lost Less Money )

OMIGOSH!

They actually said less losses is good!

Hey, it's only 44 million.

And hey, Green Packet only lost some 275 million for the last 27 months!

Maybe the 275 million has gone to the LOST MONEY HEAVEN... never to be seen again.

From OSK...

• Green Packet’s (GP) 1QFY10 EBITDA losses were down a hefty 52.9% q-o-q to RM29.8m on lower CPE and direct costs, supported by steady ARPU. The results were within expectations, meeting 97.1% of our quarterly EBITDA forecast on robust net adds for its fledging WiMAX broadband service while ARPUs remained stable amidst the competitive environment. Maintain BUY. Its key re-rating catalysts include better earnings visibility over the next few quarters as subscriber acquisitions pick up steam on coverage expansion and as CPE sales gain traction in tandem with expanding global WiMAX deployments.

Yessir.. we are supposed to be over the moon (hey, the cow did jumped over the moon, yes?) that Green Packet losses were down a HEFTY 52.9%!!!!!!!!!!!

Praise the BOSS of Green Packet for the wonderful job.

Yeah.. give it the BUY rating too, eh?

Here's the snap shot...

Then I realise it..

Hey I got it... silly billy me...

• Important disclaimer: Green Packet is a 16.2%- owned investee company of OSK Ventures International.

But my silly mind just cannot comprehend this.

I have nothing against OSKVI owning 16.2% of Green Packet. Good for them that they think is ok that Green Packet has lost so much money for the past 27 months. However, what I cannot understand is that since OSK Research understand about the vested interest issue, why on earth does OSK Research wants to make a coverage on this stock?

So many listed stock in the KLSE, why insist on covering Green Packet and in the meantime, giving it a BUY rating?

Why la?

Meanwhile..

• “The losses are ‘technical, planned’ losses,” group managing director and chief executive officer CC Puan told a media briefing yesterday.“We are sacrificing short-term profits for long-term gains,” - source: see P1 Wimax: Honey Have You Cut It? Part II

yeah, they only sacrificed to the LOST MONEY HEAVEN a tidy small sum of 275 million so far.

Feb 2010:

• World's number 3 Wimax vendor ... "Our focus last year was on coverage rollout, while this year we will strive to be Ebitda-positive ....Only next year we are anticipating net profit after tax," - source: So What Did Green Packet Say About It's 94.5 Million Losses

EBITDA positive. LOL! It's now 2010.. and this fella wants to use the DOT come scientific term of EBITDA?

Hey, babe, taxes is real. So is depreciation and amortisation.

Today's Business Times..

I think the Boss played the tape recorder..

• "These are planned losses, as we need to invest heavily to roll out our broadband coverage. In the second quarter of 2010, we expect (Ebitda) losses to be narrower, and by the end of this year, we will break even," said group chief executive officer Puan Chan Cheong after its media briefing in Petaling Jaya yesterday. Read more: Green Packet believes worst is behind it

Break even by end of the year.

That's fair.

Hmm.. but what about all those 'planned losses'????

Right now is 275 million ringgit babe.

When will Green Packet able to make back these money?

Will it?

I dunno.