Tuesday, November 16, 2010

Green Packet: 11th Consecutive Quarters Of Losses, 33 Months Of Losses And....

Green Packet had been making huge promises over the past couple of years. Here's the summary of remarks made.

  • Feb 2008: we expect the WiMAX business to be ebitda (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation ) break-even this year,"
  • May 2008: we are targeting EBITDA positive by end of next year.
  • May 2009: P1 will be EBITDA will break-even from next year.
  • Feb 2010: concurred that will be EBITDA positive in the second half of this year.
  • May 10: the company remained optimistic that it will be able to achieve an Ebitda break even
  • June 2010: Green Packet Bhd’s target to turn earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) positive by year-end may be delayed to next year
  • Sep 2010: Puan added that Green Packet is maintaining that its Ebitda (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) will break even by the end of this year.

It's now Nov 2010.

Green Packet announced its earnings last night. Any EBITDA positive? Nope. ( Yeah, it's so incredible that it's now 2010 and Green Packet still talks about EBIDTA! )

Here's the facts. I will update the list. The numbers in blue represents the current data and strike out represents the past 'facts'.

Fact. It lost some 44 million 35.9 million 28.912 million for the quarter.

Fact. This is the 9th 10th 11th consecutive quarter of losses. 33 month of losses,

Fact
. Green Packet's total losses for last 27 30 33 months equals some 275 310.9 339.812 million!

Fact.
Green Packet raised some 98 million via rights issue last Aug. 2009.

Fact, Jan 2010. Green Packet raised some 69.176 million from a share placement.

Fact, Green Packet recently raised 322.910 million from issuance of Convertible Preference Share to SK Telekoms. ( see Sep 2010 posting: Update on Green Packet )

Fact. After tonight's earnings, Green Packet said it had some 111.699 102.800 280.756 million cash and some 256.376 264.214 237.010 million in borrowings.

Yeah, thanks to the convertible preference shares, Green Packet balance sheet improved.

So how?

11th consecutive quarters of losses, 33 months of losses!

Well... the following is what Green Packet has to say on Business Times.

  • Green Packet posts Q3 net loss but sees turnaround

    By Rupinder Singh Published: 2010/11/16

    BROADBAND service provider Green Packet Bhd (0082) posted a third quarter net loss of RM28.9 million but maintained that it will turn an operating profit in the fourth quarter or the first quarter of 2011.

    "We're confident of breaking even no later than the first quarter. Ebitda (earnings before interest, tax depreciation and amortisation) turnaround is really at the corner," chief executive officer C.C. Puan said at a press conference in Petaling Jaya, Selangor, yesterday.

    To meet the target, it aims to hit 280,000 subscribers and deliver up to 500,000 modems or WiMAX CPE (Customer Premise Equipments) by the end of this year.

    "The group is in very good shape. Ebitda margin continues to improve by the quarter with a 9 per cent improvement from the second quarter of 2010. We are closing in on our target of 280,000 subscribers and we have secured orders for everything our supply chain can deliver for the Solutions business," Puan said.

    Green Packet has put aside RM40 million for advertising and promotion activities this year and will add another 15 per cent for 2011.

    As at September 30, Green Packet's capital expenditure incurred stood at RM534 million.

    It would spend another RM500 million in the next two years to increase its broadband coverage to 65 per cent of the country.

    Its third quarter losses pushes its nine month cumulative losses to RM109.5 million.

    Green Packet said its operating expenses had risen to RM129.7 million in the third quarter from RM94.1 million a year earlier, mainly due to its planned investment to deploy fourth generation services.

    Revenue jumped 60 per cent in the third quarter to RM100.8 million, mainly due to more subscribers for the broadband business, new customers for the solution business and better revenue from the international wholesale voice business

OMG!

OMG! OMG! OMG!

PLEASE tell me that I am reading it wrongly!!!!!!

  • "We're confident of breaking even no later than the first quarter. Ebitda (earnings before interest, tax depreciation and amortisation) turnaround is really at the corner," chief executive officer C.C. Puan said at a press conference in Petaling Jaya, Selangor, yesterday.

SeriouslYYYYY!

What's the point of making such statements and then continously fail to deliver????

Yeah... let me update and repeat right here again....

  • Feb 2008: we expect the WiMAX business to be ebitda (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation ) break-even this year,"
  • May 2008: we are targeting EBITDA positive by end of next year.
  • May 2009: P1 will be EBITDA will break-even from next year.
  • Feb 2010: concurred that will be EBITDA positive in the second half of this year.
  • May 10: the company remained optimistic that it will be able to achieve an Ebitda break even
  • June 2010: Green Packet Bhd’s target to turn earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) positive by year-end may be delayed to next year
  • Sep 2010: Puan added that Green Packet is maintaining that its Ebitda (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) will break even by the end of this year.
  • Nov 2010: "We're confident of breaking even no later than the first quarter. Ebitda (earnings before interest, tax depreciation and amortisation) turnaround is really at the corner," chief executive officer C.C. Puan said

5 comments:

bonny b said...

Dear Moo,
This guy Puan must be direct disciple of Chiang Kai Shek's never-give-up style; "Tomorrow we will re-take China!!"...here; "Tomorrow we will make money.."
I think we can call Green Pac 'Little Taiwan" from now on.

Sophan said...

dear mr zee moola,

really love your blog!! keep up the good commentary. Any comment on YTL-e ?

Appreciate your contribution!

A Better PJ said...

For an infrastructure business GP are doing pretty well with some positive trends on EBITDA, revenues and very importantly customer churn rates of below 5% (below telco sector average) and P1 subscriptions growing by over 20,000 per quarter...without much A&P.

All of this indicates good progress on service delivery, customer satisfaction and financials.

Ebitda is validly a more relevant measurement of operational performance for a business in its infrastructure development phase because it indicates more accurately a business's ability to generate cash.

Real success measurement for a mature broadband/telco p[layer would be the combination of market share (subscribers), churn (satisfaction levels), ARPU (customer value).

P1 4G has maintained very impressive ARPU (RM 81) and churn (4%) particularly for a start up....so the tipping point will arrive when it breaches a critical mass of subscribers....as indicated by the ebitda positive target of 280,000 subscribers.

I hope this will help with to balance the impression given by your article(s)

I-notice said...

mr.puan is running this gp like a dotcom business model in 2010!! he has close the lossess gap, but when it will start "earning" the loss 1/3 of a billions?

anyway, market competitions heating up, this will eat into his margin next quarter, and still hoping to signing more more subscriber? a tall order... and with more sites out there, means operating cost goes up quicker than he can grow his subscriber based!? ...

Mr Lonely said...

nice blog.. have a view of my blog when free.. http://www.lonelyreload.blogspot.com .. do leave me some comment / guide if can.. if interested can follow my blog...