Astro Good Results And Double Digit Revenue Rise?????

Astro announced its earnings yesterday.

These are the figures posted by Dow Jones.

The net profit dropped a lot compared to last fiscal year.

The EdgeMalaysia carried the following news.

• Astro Q4 profit down 47% to RM83m
  Business & Markets 2013
  Written by Shalini Kumar of theedgemalaysia.com  
  Thursday, 14 March 2013 18:43
  
  KUALA LUMPUR (Mar 14): Astro Malaysia Holdings Bhd recorded a net profit of RM83.2 million for its fourth quarter ended Jan 31, 2013, a 47% fall from the RM157 million it posted in the last corresponding quarter.
  
  Its quarterly revenue came in at RM1.1 billion, a slight increase over the RM1 billion it brought in last year.
  
  “The decrease in net profit is mainly due to a reduction in interest income of RM41.4 million as well as higher depreciation of RM57.5 million compared with the corresponding quarter, which resulted in lower tax expenses by RM22.3 million,” Astro said in its explanatory notes accompanying its results.
  
  For its full year to January 2013, Astro recorded a net profit of RM418 million, down 33.5% from the RM629 million it saw last year.
  
  But its 2013 revenue came in at RM4.3 billion, up by 13.2% compared to 2012’s RM3.8 billion.
  
  In a statement released to Bursa Malaysia today, Astro’s CEO Datuk Rohana Rozhan said: “Astro continues to execute strongly on its growth strategy, delivering double-digit revenue growth of 10% to RM4.3 billion in FY13.
  
  “This is as a result of new customers and good take-up of value added products and services which has contributed to the ARPU growth of 5% from RM89 to RM93.”
  
  The group has also proposed a final dividend of 1 sen per share, which is subject to shareholder’s approval.
  
  Tun Zaki Azmi, Chairman of Astro said, “Our good financial results are a reflection of the achievement of challenging targets, generating strong cash flows from operating activities.
  
  “We therefore declare a second interim single-tier dividend of 1.5 sen per share and propose a final dividend of 1.0 sen per share subject to shareholders’ approval, giving a total dividend of 4.0 sen per share since listing in October last year.”
  
  Looking forward, Rozhan added the group was now aiming to convert the rest of its residential customers to the Astro B.yond platform by the end of January 2014.
  
  “We have momentum in adding both new Pay TV and Njoi customers, and will continue to build on our 52% household penetration rate, which in turn will make Astro more attractive to media buyers,” she added.
  
  “With Astro On-The-Go, we are now bringing Astro services to customers and non-customers in Malaysia, as well as the introduction of the service beyond Malaysia, expanding our footprint beyond our traditional customers of households to individuals in Malaysia and abroad.”
  
  “We will continue to strengthen our IP assets in content, including on-demand and prepaid offerings to remain our customers’ content provider of choice,” she said.

 I was puzzled by the following statement.

• “Our good financial results are a reflection of the achievement of challenging targets, generating strong cash flows from operating activities.

Net profit dropped 47%!

This is considered good?

And I was more amused by today's headlines on Business Times.

Since the net profit dropped by 47%, Business Times decided to focus on REVENUE!

Duh!

• Astro: Double-digit revenue rise
  
  By Cheryl Yvonne Achu Published: 2013/03/15
  
  STRONG STRATEGY: Astro credits new customers, good take-up of value-added products
  
  ASTRO Malaysia Holdings Bhd's revenue rose 10 per cent to RM4.3 billion in the financial year ended January 31 2013, driven by new customers and good take-up of value-added products and services.
  
  However, net profit was down 33.5 per cent to RM418 million from RM629 million a year ago.
  
  The group has declared a second interim dividend of 1.5 sen per 10 sen share, payable on April 18, and proposed a final dividend of one sen per 10 sen share.
  
  Chief executive officer Datuk Rohana Rozhan said Astro continues to execute strongly on its expansion strategy, delivering the double-digit revenue growth.
  
  "This is a result of new customers and good take-up of value added products and services such as high definition, Personal Video Recording, Multi-room, On Demand (Astro First and Astro Best) and Superpack, which have contributed to the ARPU (average revenue per use) growth of five per cent from RM89 to RM93," she told a press conference here yesterday.
  
  Rohana said total subscribers grew by 418,000 (comprising of 209,000 for Pay TV and 209,000 for Njoi), increasing Astro's total customer base to 3.5 million and an overall TV household penetration rate to 52 per cent.
  
  For its fourth quarter ended January 31 2013, Astro recorded a net profit of RM83.2 million, down 47 per cent from RM157 million in the previous year.
  
  Revenue stood at RM1.1 billion from RM1 billion recorded in the corresponding quarter.
  
  In a filing to Bursa Malaysia yesterday, Astro said the decrease in net profit was mainly due to a reduction in interest income of RM41.4 million and higher depreciation of RM57.5 million, which resulted in lower tax expenses by RM22.3 million.
  
  Rohana said Astro is aiming to convert the rest of its residential subscribers to the Astro B.yond platform by the end of January 2014.
  
  "We have momentum in adding both new Pay TV and Njoi customers and will continue to build on our 52 per cent household penetration rate, which in turn will make Astro more attractive," she added.

MSWG Also Not Happy With Astro Listing!

On Star Biz: http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2012/9/1/business/11950273&sec=business

MSWG is echoing the same points made in the blog posting: Want To Go For Astro IPO?

• Saturday September 1, 2012
  MSWG unhappy about structure of Astro’s upcoming listing
  By JOHN LOH
  
  PETALING JAYA: The Minority Shareholder Watchdog Group (MSWG) is unhappy about a number of issues related to how the upcoming listing of Astro Malaysia Holdings Bhd is structured.
  
  “Our grouses still remain with regards to the listing and delisting exercises currently being done by many Malaysian conglomerates,” chief executive officer Rita Benoy Bushon said in the Aug 30 edition of MSWG's newsletter.
  
  She said Astro, if it was floated at RM3.60 per share, would be valued at RM18.7bil, far exceeding the RM8.3bil price at which it was privatised in 2010.
  “Here, Astro is listing without its foreign operations in India and Indonesia. We understand that Sun Direct TV business in India has about seven million subscribers as at last year despite only starting in 2008.
  “What's more, around two-thirds of the initial public offering (IPO) comprises offer-for-sale shares, which means the proceeds will go to the major owner, not the company,” she added.
  
  The pay-TV operator, which has a subscriber base of some three million users and a market penetration of 50% of Malaysian households, is offering up to 1.52 billion shares, or 29.2%, of its enlarged share capital at its IPO expected next month.
  
  Based on the indicative price of RM3.60 per share for bumiputra investors as reported by Reuters, the listing could raise up to RM5.47bil, making it the third largest in the country this year behind Felda Global Ventures Holdings Bhd and IHH Healthcare Bhd's RM9.93bil and RM6.3bil IPOs respectively.
  
  Only 474.3 million, or 31.2%, of the shares to be sold are new, giving Astro's existing shareholders the bulk of the gross proceeds at 70%.
  
  The offer-for-sale shares are to be sold by Astro founder Ananda Krishnan and Khazanah Nasional Bhd, although they will still command a 70.8% interest in the company post-IPO.
  
  Ananda, Malaysia's second-richest man, will retain a 50% stake in Astro and Khazanah 21%.
  
  Bushon explained that another sticking point about the listing is the portion allocated for retail investors, which was just the minimum 2%.
  
  “We hope the advisers and the company would consider allowing the clawback provisions from other portions, including cornerstone investors, if there is an oversubscription of the retail portion, say by more than five times.
  
  “And will the regulator step in to manage the way companies are listed and delisted in Malaysia?” she asked.
  
  A total of 1.26 billion shares, or 24.2%, of Astro would be offered to local and foreign institutional investors, including bumiputra investors, and just 260 million, or 5%, to retail investors.
  
  Of this, some 103.95 million shares, or 2% of the firm's enlarged share base, has been allocated for the general public, with half of that for retail bumiputra investors.
  
  The remaining retail shares would be offered to Astro employees, customers, directors and contractors.
  
  Astro had said in its prospectus exposure that 58% of the IPO proceeds would be used for capital expenditure and 29.3% to repay bank borrowings. The balance would be kept for working capital purposes and to defray listing expenses.

Want To Go For Astro IPO?

Posted on the EdgeMalaysia: http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=219033&Itemid=79

• Astro Malaysia to take one-third of IPO proceeds Written by Cindy Yeap of theedgemalaysia.com 
  Thursday, 23 August 2012 09:15
  
  KUALA LUMPUR: The re-listing of Astro Malaysia Holdings Bhd is expected to raise some US$1.75 billion (RM5.47 billion) from the sale of 29.2% of the company.
  
  However, only 31.2% of proceeds raised from the sale of up to 1.52 billion new and existing shares at the comeback IPO will go to Astro Malaysia, according to an updated draft prospectus dated Aug 17 on the Securities Commission’s website. Of the total 1.52 billion shares, slightly over a billion shares are sold by existing shareholders T Ananda Krishnan and Khazanah Nasional Bhd, while the rest are new shares.
  
  From the sale of the 474.3 million new shares estimated to net around RM1.7 billion, some 58% of gross proceeds has been earmarked for capital expenditure, while 29.35% will go to repay bank borrowings. This leaves 8.6% of proceeds for general working capital and 4.1% for listing expenses.
  
  Astro Malaysia, which is expected to come to market in September, did not provide an indicative pricing in the updated version to the initial draft released on Aug 8.
  
  Nonetheless, the IPO is expected to raise RM5.47 billion for the company and its controlling shareholders using the indicative price of RM3.60 apiece that a Reuters report last week said bumiputera investors had been offered.
  
  This values Astro Malaysia, which is listing without its foreign operations in India and Indonesia, at RM18.7 billion — significantly above the RM8.3 billion the old ASTRO ALL ASIA NETWORKS PLC [] was worth at the RM4.30 privatisation price. Like the re-listing of Ananda’s Malaysian mobile arm Maxis Bhd, Astro Malaysia is widely expected to market itself as a dividend play, having promised a minimum pay-out ratio of 75%.
  
  Astro Malaysia is widely expected to market itself as a dividend play, having promised a minimum payout ratio of 75%.
  
  Ananda,who privatised the pay TV operator with Khazanah two years ago, will continue to control about 50% of Astro Malaysia’s enlarged share base post-IPO. Khazanah’s effective interest will be 20.8%, according to the updated draft document, bringing their collective interest in Astro Malaysia to 70.8%.
  
  The updated document also named former Chief Justice of Malaysia Tun Zaki Tun Azmi as Astro Malaysia’s independent non-executive chairman, with Usaha Tegas Sdn Bhd director Augustus Ralph Marshall as executive deputy chairman.
  
  Set to be Malaysia’s third largest IPO so far this year after Felda Global Ventures Holdings Bhd and IHH Healthcare Bhd, some 1.26 billion shares or 95% of Astro Malaysia’s offering are for institutions. Of this, some 597.69 million shares or 11.5% of the company’s enlarged share base will go to bumiputera investors.
  
  This leaves 259.87 million shares, or 5% of its enlarged share base, for the retail offering, including that for Astro directors, employees, contractors and customers. The pool for the general public is 103.95 million shares or 2% of Astro Malaysia’s share base, half of which are for retail bumiputera investors.
  
  As at April 30 this year, Astro Malaysia had RM479.1 million cash. Borrowings and finance lease liabilities stood at RM3.69 billion, of which RM3.66 billion is long-term liability.
  
  While its 3.1 million customers already account for over 50% of Malaysian householders, Astro Malaysia said there is still growth to be had. Astro Malaysia intends to stay the market leader with continued investments of RM1 billion annually in content. It also intends to derive new income stream from smart and targeted marketing of additional products to its existing customer base.
  
  Listing without the foreign pay TV operations housed under the de-listed Astro All Asia Networks, Astro Malaysia would be sheltered from the on-going courtroom disputes between Ananda and former Indonesian partner the Lippo Group as well as the wider group’s run-in with authorities over corruption allegations in India that has yet to be fully laid to rest.
  
  CIMB Investment Bank Bhd, Maybank Investment Bank Bhd and RHB Investment Bank Bhd are joint principal advisers for the IPO.

Taken private at 8.3 Billion.
Seeks relisting at 18.7 Billion???

LMAO!!!

Are they really serious?? Can life be soooooooooooooooooooo good????

Want to go for this new listing?

And mind you, just like Maxis, Astro is seeking listing without its overseas operations!!!

Do refer this past posting on 31 March 2010: Astro Privatisation And Sun Direct TV's Immense Potential. Allow me to post the following from that posting.

====>>>>

Then the following statement from him struck me.

• "(Astro) has better value in being taken off the market with the current stage of development of high definition television (HDTV) and the Indian market,"

The Indian market.

Aha!

This reminds me of Aircel!

Flashback the posting: Regarding Aircel and Maxis. It seems that as mentioned in a Business Times article in Nov 2009, Aircel had 26 million subscriber growing at one million new subscriber per month!

That was the jewel in Maxis.

The incredible growth in Aircel.

Which got me asking, what about Astro's growth in India.

Sun Direct TV.

So I asked Google.

http://www.afaqs.com/perl/media/story.html?sid=26440

• As per its website, Sun Direct reaches approximately 5.3 million homes, whereas Tata Sky has a subscriber base of more than 4.5 million and Dish TV has about 6.5 million subscribers.

That article was dated 4th March 2010. Here's a newer one. DTH aims peak subscriber growth in FY'11 on back of sports

• Tata Sky has 16 per cent of the incremental subscriber growth while Sun Direct has 21 per cent and Big TV 12 per cent, the sources add

Sun Direct has 21% subscriber growth?????

And here is from Sun Direct own website. http://www.sundirect.in/media.php

Check this out.

7th July 2008 http://www.sundirect.in/mediaDetails.php?mediaId=2

• Sun Direct TV Pvt. Ltd one of the leading DTH service provider announces the achievement of 1 Million DTH subscribers in 200 days.The one million subscriber base comes from only 4 southern states i.e. Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh and the union territory of Pondicherry.
  
  On the eve of this 1 Million subscriber achievement , Sun Direct has launched 14 add-on packages ranging from as low as Rs. 10/- to Rs. 140/- "Packages to suit every pocket" in a "Pay for what you watch" concept for the very first time in Indian DTH scenario.

1 million subscribers in 200 days! WOW!

8th April 2009. http://www.sundirect.in/mediaDetails.php?mediaId=5

• Another landmark achievement for us is crossing the 3 million mark subscriber base by March 2009, as committed earlier; this achievement qualifies us to be the No 2 service DTH provider. In the coming fiscal year we look forward to occupy the pole position. We have added more customers than any other DTH player in the last one year and in the coming days we will be adding more innovative features, services and channels in our offerings.” Added Mr. D'Silva

From July 2008 to March 2009, Sun Direct went from 1 million subscribers to 3 million subscribers!!
Sep 2009. http://www.sundirect.in/mediaDetails.php?mediaId=7

• Fastest growing DTH player to touch 4 million base in less than two years time
  Chennai, 7th September, 2009: Sun Direct Pvt Ltd, the leading direct-to-home (DTH) service provider in the country achieved another milestone by crossing the 4 million subscriber base; the fastest growing player in the DTH market to do so in under two years, since its launch in December 2007.
  
  Setting up a scorching growth pace in the market with its Value for Money offer, right regional content mix, deep distribution across the country and offering flexi-content pricing, all of which have enabled Sun Direct to become the fastest growing DTH player in the country today.

4 million subscribers now!!!!

What incredible growth!

How?

Don't you think Sun Direct is a company with incredible potential?

Then the Maxis saga, the listing, delisting and relisting came to mind.

Hmmm... very much possible, yes? What if Astro delist... goes private.. and relist only the Malaysian operations only. Just like Maxis. Dare we say not possible? The new Astro without Sun Direct! Just like Maxis without Aircel.

I know I am usually wrong, so could I be wrong here?

=====>>>>
Yessir!

Spot on!

Astro now wants to relist without Sun Dircect and they want to sell you this IPO at a more expensive price!!!!

Duh!

Life is so good, yes?

So how is Sun Direct doing today?

Last year, Sun Direct was reported to have 7 million subscribers! http://ibnlive.in.com/generalnewsfeed/news/sun-direct-surpasses-seven-million-subscriber-base/802624.html

Remember company only started in 2008. By 2011, it had 7 million subscribers. What an incredible growth rate. (And apparently by March 2012, Sun Direct now has 7.5million subscribers! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sun_Direct#cite_note-9 )

Yeah, Sun Direct USED to belong Astro All asia.

But now they want to relist Astro but without Sun Direct!!!

I wonder how those who sold their Astro All Asia shares feel now......

Now do you understand why companys are delisted and relisted again?

ps: Regarding the IPO. I have no idea how this BRAND new IPO will perform. I am just not interested to know. All I know is I want no part of such!

Say It Isn't So That Astro Wants Relisting Again!!

Got the following comments:

• Heineken Pilsener said...
  
  moola, i think you might be interested in this. http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIMES/articles/20120329130041/Article/index_html
  
  my first impression? WTF.

HP: This is why I hold Bursa Malaysia responsible for all these shenanigans.

As mentioned many times before, Bursa Malaysia should never had been allowed to be a listed entity. As a business entity, it needs and wants more business. So when a business is seeking listing (even though it's a relisting exercise), Bursa as business seeking profits, Bursa would always welcome any relisting.

So, as some have argued, business lists to make profit. They take it private because it's a profitable exercise. And they would also relist because it's also profitable.

And what does turn Bursa into? An ATM machine? A Stock Exchange with a revolving door where companies can come and go as they wish? Such mockery!!

I think Bursa needs to be tough. Real tough.

Companies can always delist. It's their rights to do so.

But.....  BUT .... BUT ..... BUT .....  as a governing body Bursa needs to stand up and have the guts to make it much tougher for these businesses to relist again. Let them delist anytime they want. But when they want to relist, impose a time frame for companies seeking relisting. For example, you can only relist after 8 years after you delist. And/Or you can only relist but at a much lower valuation than the privatisation offer. ( For example, you do not want to see (again) company delisting at say a PE of 6 times and then only to seek relisting at a PE of 12 times! You seriously do not want such incidents to happen!)

However sadly, this now would not happen.

Business is business. Bursa is a business. It wants more profits. More listing means more profits. That's the simple and sad equation.

And if Astro wants relisting, sadly I think, Bursa would allow their relisting.

But what can we, the investing public, do? Should we be a gullible investor and minority shareholder and allow these companies to make a mockery of our money? Well, I think we can do something about it.

We need to be strong and we need to stand up to these companies.

Just tell them "NO".

Simple as that.

Don't buy their shares.

Forgo all those IPO seduction.

Have the guts to say NO.

There are so many other companies we can invest in. So one less IPO won't hurt us right?

Astro Customers Fuming Over New PVR Recording Charges

Astro announced its latest offering. Astro B.yond PVR (Personal Video Recorder). ( see http://www.astro.com.my/byond/articles/art_699.html )

Now this box allows B.yond users to record their favourite Astro programs. The subscriber will get one unit ODU (Out Door Unit) which has 2 signal receivers, meaning to say 2 cables is required (instead of one presently) for installation.

Now the purpose of 2 cables is to allow the user to watch a different channel while recording another.

Sounds super.

This was what many subscribers had been waiting so long since getting their B.yond. A new box which allows them to record their favourite TV shows whenever they are busy.

But then comes the shocker.

As many would have expected, pricing.

Yes, many had been crying foul over Astro constant increment in subscriber fees over the years! For many, Astro is all about money, money and more money!

To get the new PVR box there are 2 options. If one owns B.yond, one can exchange the b.yond box plus rm 300.00. Or if one does not have B.yond, to jump straight into B.yond PVR would cost rm 400.00.

Many feel that the charges of rm 300.00 and rm 400.00 is insanely excessive!

Yes, although a new cable is required to hook up this PVR, the charges is insane!

Does it cost rm 300.00 to install a new ODU with 2 new cables?
Does it cost rm 400.00 to install a new B.yond with PVR?

Exactly!

That's my sentiments. Many are feeling ripped off!

And to make matters worst, yes, the horrors does not end here, the subscriber then have to pay an addition rm 10 per month for the recording services!

OH MY GOD!

That's rm 120.00 per year extra!

Insane or what??????

Yeah, it's a take it or a leave it option. You want their new PVR decoder, this is how much you have to pay!

Why is Astro allowed to do business like a bully?

Now get this. There's another option.

You can buy your own hard disk.

But there are several setbacks. One is you cannot watch other shows while recording another. Two. Apparently subscribers must buy WD My Passport AV 320gb external hard sick from WD. And apparently this is the ONLY hard disk that will work!

oO

Exactly.

Wait... that's not it.

There's still the recording surcharges! Yes, the subscribers going for this option, needs to pay rm 5.00 per month!!!!!!!!!

Many subscribers are left dumbfounded.

It's so simple why.

The existing B.Yond subscribers' current remote control does have a 'record' button but to use it, they have to pay rm 5.00 per month!

How?

Insane isn't it?

Why is Astro allowed to do business like this? Is it because they have a monopoly that they feel they can just bully their customers? Whatever happen to Competition bill will prevent monopoly and protect consumers?

Yes, where's the customers protection?

Sigh!

Oh another thing. The recorded programs can only be watched using the Astro decoder. Yes, the subscriber cannot watch it on their personal computer and they cannot pass their recordings to their favourite aunties and uncles. Yup, I can see that Astro have gone through many hassles to protect their shows from being distributed and they have gone through many, many hassles to ensure that they milk more money from its loyal customers!

LOL!

As they say... capitalism is good but monopoly capitalism is simply the best!!

Hey Astro Here's A Bill For You

Saw this news clip: Competition bill will prevent monopoly and protect consumers

• KUALA LUMPUR: The Competition Bill 2010 to prevent monopoly and cartel activities by big companies was tabled for first reading in Dewan Rakyat on Wednesday, April 7.
  
  Domestic Trade, Cooperatives and Consumerism Minister Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaacob said the bill's aim was to encourage economic growth by protecting competition and consumers' interest.
  
  He also tabled the Competition Commission Bill 2010 for establishment of the commission responsible for enforcing the Competition Act.
  
  Under the Competition Bill, big companies in the same trade are prohibited from making agreements to prevent or hinder competition in the market.
  
  Ismail said that the companies are also prohibited from price-fixing, directly or indirectly, and can be fined not more than RM5 million for the first offence and not more than RM10 million for the second and subsequent offences.
  
  Individuals can be fined for not more than RM1 million or jailed for not more than five years, or both for the first offence. They can be fined for not more than RM2 million or jailed for not more than five years, or both for the second and subsequent offfences. -- Bernama

Astro are you hearing this?

Astro Privatisation And Sun Direct TV's Immense Potential

I was just reading the following article on Business Times

• Astro best taken private: Khazanah
  
  Published: 2010/03/31
  
  Astro All Asia Networks Plc, the country's sole pay-TV operator, is best taken private at this stage, says Khazanah Nasional Bhd's managing director Tan Sri Azman Mokhtar.
  
  "(Astro) has better value in being taken off the market with the current stage of development of high definition television (HDTV) and the Indian market," he added.
  
  However, given Astro's substantial shareholder, Usaha Tegas Sdn Bhd's track record, it may relist the unit later, similar to Maxis, he told reporters on the sidelines of Invest Malaysia 2010 in Kuala Lumpur today.
  
  It has been reported that major shareholders, led by tycoon T.Ananda Krishnan, intend to take Astro private in a deal valued at RM8.5 billion.
  
  They believe that privatisation of the company which was listed in October 2003, would optimise its capital structure for local and regional expansion.
  
  It is also understood the company would need to spend between RM3 billion to RM3.5 billion over the next three years, to accelerate its domestic and international growth, including migrating to HDTV.
  
  Meanwhile, Ananda's Usaha Tegas owns 58 per cent of ASTRO Holdings Sdn Bhd, Khazanah 30 per cent and Bumiputra Foundations 12 per cent.
  
  Astro would only be delisted if the major shareholders secure more than 90 per cent of shares from the privatisation exercise. -- Bernama

Ok, I do not understand the statement.

• However, given Astro's substantial shareholder, Usaha Tegas Sdn Bhd's track record, it may relist the unit later, similar to Maxis, he told reporters.

Listing, delist and relist. Again doesn't this make Bursa Malaysia irrelevant?

Then the following statement from him struck me.

• "(Astro) has better value in being taken off the market with the current stage of development of high definition television (HDTV) and the Indian market,"

The Indian market.

Aha!

This reminds me of Aircel!

Flashback the posting: Regarding Aircel and Maxis. It seems that as mentioned in a Business Times article in Nov 2009, Aircel had 26 million subscriber growing at one million new subscriber per month!

That was the jewel in Maxis.

The incredible growth in Aircel.

Which got me asking, what about Astro's growth in India.

Sun Direct TV.

So I asked Google.

http://www.afaqs.com/perl/media/story.html?sid=26440

• As per its website, Sun Direct reaches approximately 5.3 million homes, whereas Tata Sky has a subscriber base of more than 4.5 million and Dish TV has about 6.5 million subscribers.

That article was dated 4th March 2010. Here's a newer one. DTH aims peak subscriber growth in FY'11 on back of sports

• Tata Sky has 16 per cent of the incremental subscriber growth while Sun Direct has 21 per cent and Big TV 12 per cent, the sources add

Sun Direct has 21% subscriber growth?????

And here is from Sun Direct own website. http://www.sundirect.in/media.php

Check this out.

7th July 2008 http://www.sundirect.in/mediaDetails.php?mediaId=2

• Sun Direct TV Pvt. Ltd one of the leading DTH service provider announces the achievement of 1 Million DTH subscribers in 200 days.
  The one million subscriber base comes from only 4 southern states i.e. Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh and the union territory of Pondicherry.
  
  On the eve of this 1 Million subscriber achievement , Sun Direct has launched 14 add-on packages ranging from as low as Rs. 10/- to Rs. 140/- "Packages to suit every pocket" in a "Pay for what you watch" concept for the very first time in Indian DTH scenario.

1 million subscribers in 200 days! WOW!

8th April 2009. http://www.sundirect.in/mediaDetails.php?mediaId=5

• Another landmark achievement for us is crossing the 3 million mark subscriber base by March 2009, as committed earlier; this achievement qualifies us to be the No 2 service DTH provider. In the coming fiscal year we look forward to occupy the pole position. We have added more customers than any other DTH player in the last one year and in the coming days we will be adding more innovative features, services and channels in our offerings.” Added Mr. D'Silva

From July 2008 to March 2009, Sun Direct went from 1 million subscribers to 3 million subscribers!!

Sep 2009. http://www.sundirect.in/mediaDetails.php?mediaId=7

• Fastest growing DTH player to touch 4 million base in less than two years time
  
  Chennai, 7th September, 2009: Sun Direct Pvt Ltd, the leading direct-to-home (DTH) service provider in the country achieved another milestone by crossing the 4 million subscriber base; the fastest growing player in the DTH market to do so in under two years, since its launch in December 2007.
  
  Setting up a scorching growth pace in the market with its Value for Money offer, right regional content mix, deep distribution across the country and offering flexi-content pricing, all of which have enabled Sun Direct to become the fastest growing DTH player in the country today.

4 million subscribers now!!!!

What incredible growth!

How?

Don't you think Sun Direct is a company with incredible potential?

Then the Maxis saga, the listing, delisting and relisting came to mind.

Hmmm... very much possible, yes? What if Astro delist... goes private.. and relist only the Malaysian operations only. Just like Maxis. Dare we say not possible? The new Astro without Sun Direct! Just like Maxis without Aircel.

I know I am usually wrong, so could I be wrong here?

Yeah.. and not to forget, Astro earnings is turning around nicely too!

Was Astro Earnings Really So Poor?

The best fit news strikes again!

Could I be wrong by saying so?

Astro All Asia announced its earnings last night.

Here's the screen shot.

How?

Last year, Astro lost a massive 529 million. This year it made a nice small change of 232 million.

Now that's the facts, yes?

How would you describe it? How would anyone describe it in an unbiased opinion?

Is this or is this NOT an incredible turnaround????

Well I was simply shocked and appalled by Business Times title of its article describing Astro's earnings.

Have a look:



Could anyone comprehend what Business Times is doing here?

Yes, Q-Q earnings dropped but was Astro's earnings so bad that Business Times editors decides to use the phrase 'Astro Q4 profit plunges 72pc'?

Yeah, see how it states in bold

• Pay-Television operator Astro All Asia Networks plc saw its fourth-quarter net profit plunge close to 72 per cent due to higher costs associated with the cessation of the direct-to-home (DTH) business proposal in Indonesia and expenses previously incurred in its development.

Why is Business Times so critical on Astro All Asia???

Oh.. then I remembered... Astro All Asia is being privatised. Surely, the media does not want to put too much attention that Astro All Asia is now doing very, very, very well when compared to its pervious year.

Isn't this another case of best fit news?

Astro Responds And Apologises To Aspect Ratio Foul Up!

Blogged previously: Customers Angry Over Astro's Byond Firmware!

Well Astro has responded and apologised : Aspect Ratio Settings

• Recently, Astro performed a software update download to deliver a consistent viewing experience for different aspect ratios. This is designed in conjunction with Astro’s software partners and is in accordance with international broadcast and content standards. For High-Definition content, the new software displays the image in its wide-screen format; for standard definition content, the image displays in pillar box mode (with two black bars at the sides) to retain its original proportion and resolution for optimum picture quality.
  
  Following customers' feedback after the software update download, we hear your preference and are working with our software partners to provide feasible viewing options. By the end of this week, we will replace the “Zoom” option with the “Fit to Screen” option for our customers who prefer to view Standard Definition content in full screen. To do this, customers can press the aspect ratio button on their Astro B.yond remote control. However, for the correct proportions and best resolution, Astro recommends that Standard Definition content be viewed via the pillar box mode.
  
  Astro regrets any inconvenience caused as it strives to improve its customer experience. Astro thanks its loyal customers for their continued feedback.

Thank you and thank goodness that the unhappy customers are heard!

Oh I saw this on a forum posting: http://forum.lowyat.net/topic/1352261/+240

• Sin No 1: Advertisements and commercials
  We have been sold and told that there would not be any kind of TV commercials since we are paying for the programmes we are watching. Since the launching of Astro, you will notice that more and more TV commercials have been put into our living rooms. Start counting them and your blood will boil. Is this how a cable TV is supposed to be run?
  
  Sin No 2: Astro-on-demand re-runs
  We are paying additional rates for this so called 'Watch when you like, how many times you like' programme named 'Astro-on-demand'. Fine, we get to watch first-hand episodes of Hong Kong dramas and serials. But then again, you will also notice that these same dramas and serials will be aired again over 'Wah Lai Toi' some months later. And mind you, we are also paying for this 'Wah Lai Toi' package. Think, subscribers, think. We have been milked high and dry.
  
  Sin No 3: 'Services currently not available'!
  I am sure this is the dreaded punch-line all subscribers hate to see when their favorite programmes are interrupted due to 'bad weather'. This has been Astro's problem from the start and we don't see any effort being done to overcome or improve it. But then, they can say that there are always repeats and re-runs when services are resumed.
  
  Fine, then what about the 'live telecasts' that we missed? Finals like the 'All England' where a Malaysian is playing and capable of winning after seven years? Live football matches where we are being made to pay more? Not to mention the coming World Cup where we are staying up to watch?
  
  Imagine the frustration of staying up late with some hot coffee, sitting on your couch complete with wonderful excuses for going to work late tomorrow wanting to watch your favorite teams play 'live' and all you can see is 'Services currently not available'. Just wonder whether we, as subscribers can just write in to Astro when our bills arrive and tell them 'Payment currently not available'?
  
  Sin No 4: Programme re-runs and re-re-runs
  Sure, we all know how these cable TV providers operate. I am sure we can stomach some re-runs. Have you ever experienced switching on your Astro and have the feeling that you have watched this programme before?
  
  But the real 'miracle' is that this same thing will happen to you again and again with the same programme. Then it will dawn on you that this is the same programme that they have repeated over and over again. Switch on channels like HBO, Star Movies, etc and you will know what I mean.
  
  Sin No 5: Wanton price hike
  I am sure this needs no elaboration from me. We have been put through this over the years.
  
  Sin No 6: Programme cancellation fees
  Ever notice how you are being pampered when you want to add new channels? Notice how efficient they are when you can have your new programmes channeled into your living rooms within half-an-hour with absolutely no connecting fees?
  
  Of course, when you want to cancel these same programmes, you will be at their mercy. A cancellation fee will be imposed. So they are telling us that getting in is simple and free but getting out will cost you. Wake up subscribers, if this is not daylight piracy, then Somalia must be a tourist heaven.
  
  Sin No 7: Unfair programme package
  Ever notice how packages are being grouped? We, as subscribers, are not given a free hand to choose which programme we like to see. We are being shoved programmes we don't like just because we choose certain channels and other channels are being 'thrown' in.

Customers Angry Over Astro's Byond Firmware!

Went home last night and switched on my Astro (yeah, I am one of the subscribers for Astro Byond) to watch American Idol results show. Horrors! The whole picture was utterly distorted on my TV.

Horrors!

Now previously, I have set the screen disply, in the TV settings in my Byond box, to STRETCH view mode.

Last night, Randy's head was chopped off the very minute I switched on Astro!

Upon some simple investigations, I found out that I no longer have this STRETCH view mode option. All I have now is PILLAR BOX and ZOOM view mode. Which is totally unacceptable if I were to watch NON-HD channels on Astro. Now given that Astro only offers 5 channels viewing on HD, watching Astro became such a turn off. What a massive disappointment! Arghhhhh!!!!!

What are you folks in Astro thinking about?

You make new software firmwares to improve viewing and not to downgrade viewing!!!

And I am not alone, mind you.

On Malaysiainsider, A ‘black pillar’ surprise hits Astro B.yond customers

• By Lee Wei Lian
  
  KUALA LUMPUR, March 12 — Customers of satellite TV provider Astro’s high definition (HD) package, Astro Beyond, woke up today to an unwanted surprise when they found that the visuals in the non-HD or standard definition channels (SD) were squeezed between two “black pillars.”
  
  The problem is due to an overnight software update downloaded into Astro set top boxes that does not take into consideration the different aspect ratios used by HD and SD.
  
  “They did not inform customers ahead of time,” said KC Lau, an irate Astro B.yond customer who initially thought it was a problem with his LCD TV. “I am amazed they are so arrogant not to be prepared for the inundation of complaints. Typical of our country.”
  
  To compound problems, Astro’s B.yond subscribers will also have to manually reset the aspect ratios every time they change channels.
  
  When contacted, Astro said that the issue is due to a software update that was performed for the service to be in line with international broadcast and content standards.
  
  It said that customers can opt to use the “Zoom” button on the decoder if they want to view the SD channels in full screen.
  
  The company did not, however, point out that when subscribers view SD channels in full-screen mode, the top and bottom part of the picture is cut off.
  
  Astro also explained that all flat panel/high definition televisions and HD content are transmitted on 16:9 aspect ratio while SD channels are transmitted on 4:3 aspect ratio which results in the SD channels images viewed on a flat panel television/ high definition television in the correct native ratio to be “pillar-boxed”.
  
  Ahmad Mustaza Ismail, Director of Customer Service said that in the meantime, Astro will look into the feasibility of providing more options for its customers. “The process will take time as we have to work with our programme guide software suppliers while ensuring that we comply to international broadcast standards,” he said in an e-mail response to The Malaysian Insider.

Yes, the ZOOM while allowing the viewer to view the SD channels in full screen, but the picture quality using this view mode is poor and the top and bottom of the picture is cut off!

Is this acceptable?

Surely not.

And neither is Ahmad Mustaza Ismail's explanation.

Come on surely some thinking is required when you do an update yes? And surely one would imagine that Astro would have taken the time to do some simple testing before they launch this software, yes? Why is so difficult for them to test out if it works or not before making this new firmware update? Test it out. Is that so difficult?

TV shows is all about sound quality and visual quality, yes?

If you make an upgrade which downgrades the visual quality of the shows being broad casted, surely your customers would be extremely pissed, yes? I know I am and if one surf through Astro's facebook, one could read the countless complaints on this issue. ( Click her http://www.facebook.com/Astro?filter=3 )

And Ahmad Mustaza Ismail's statement "Astro will look into the feasibility of providing more options for its customers. “The process will take time as we have to work with our programme guide software suppliers while ensuring that we comply to international broadcast standards,” simply does not make any sense either.

Why talk about international broadcast standards? Has he watch the end result of this firmware upgrade? Yeah, I believe he should switch on his TV and see for himself and ask himself a very honest question, "Is such picture quality acceptable"? and the point is simple, if it's not acceptable, why talk about international broadcast standards? It is irrelevant here.

The point is simple. Astro software programmers screwed up by taking out the 'stretch' view mode option. How difficult is it to rollback the firmware upgrade and allow back the users to choose between PILLAR BOX, ZOOM and STRETCH.

Hey, adding back this STRETCH view mode is not that difficult is it?

Comeon Astro, think about it!

What OSK Said About Astro's Earnings

Posted this morning Astro Is Making Money!

I was so curious what OSK will say in their report.

Target price lowered from 3.92 to 3.65. Lowered by 27 sen!

Hmmm... their last 2 recommendations.

• 20th July 2009. Trading Buy maintained. TP upgraded to 4.20.
  31st July 2009. Trading Buy maintained. TP downgraded to 3.92

It's now Sept 11th 2009. The target price is only 3.65. Which means from 20th July 2009, Astro target price has went from 4.20 to 3.92 to 3.65.

And the recommendation (despite it's a downgrade) is called NEUTRAL?!

The second passage. "Softer but broadly in line"???

Errr... errr.... Astro's half year earnings is how much? How much is OSK's estimate? 255 million! And they call this broadly in line?????

WOW!

Yeah.. they still expect Astro to make 255 million this year! oO

And just for the record again...

1. 16 Dec 2008. Trading Buy Maintained 2.90.
2. 4th Feb 2009. Downgrade to Neutral. TP downgraded to 2.20.
3. 17th Feb 2009. Neutral maintained. 2.20.
4. 4th March 2009. Neutral maintained. 2.20.
5. 18th March 2009. Neutral maintained. TP downgraded to 2.00.
6. 17th April 2009. Trading Buy upgrade. TP upgraded to 2.92.
7. 21st May 2009. Trading Buy maintained. 2.92.
8. 1st June 2009. Trading Buy maintained TP upgraded to 3.50.
9. 15th June 2009, Trading Buy maintained 3.20-3.50.
10. 20th July 2009. Trading Buy maintained. TP upgraded to 4.20.
11. 31st July 2009. Trading Buy maintained. TP revised to 3.92.
12. 11th Sep 2009. Downgraded to Neutral. TP revised to 3.65.

Astro Is Making Money!

Never mind that Astro lost some 526 million the previous fiscal year.

Never mind that Astro lost some 6 million the year earlier.

That's the past yo! Get over it!!!

Never mind that Astro earned less some 6.7 million compared to previous quarter.

Well then, it certainly doesn't matter that the earnings were down 24% compared to previous quarter!

Most important is now.

Astro is making money!

Ya man! Astro's current half fiscal year earnings totals 62 million!

Ya man!

That's an eps of 3.22 sen.

Ok, ok, ok.. I know that earnings per share and pe multiples just do not apply for Astro. It never had. And I should stop repeating myself. LOL!

So half year, Astro earned some 62 million. Full year, how much do you reckon Astro can make?

I wonder?

Oh, I did wrote on OSK comments on Astro. Featured Report: OSK On Astro All Asia Again!

Let's see their estimates.

My their estimates were only 265.5 million!

And half year, Astro only did some 62 million.

Well how?

Hmm... from my flawed conclusion, either Astro is performing real poor or OSK estimates numbers are totally out of whack again!

How?

Anyway, on the Edge Financial Daily: Astro posts RM27.8m net profit in 2Q

• "Group EBITDA decreased marginally to RM175 million year on year, primarily due to higher content costs which was partially offset by higher TV subscription revenue and the careful management of other operating costs across the Group.

Huh? People still use EBITDA??????

Does this means depreciation of assets is a totally meaningless?

And what about TAX???

Who pays????

On Star Business: Astro to invest RM100mil more in high definition TV

HD TV eh? For many subscribers, their necks are already giraffe like waiting for this said HD TV which had been promised by Astro long ago.

Yeah, our Astro is still being broadcasted using ancient analogue devices! Makes me wonder why folks are buying them new and modern flat screen plasma and lcd TVs when the signal received from Astro is in analogue.

Featured Report: MIB On Astro All Asia

I had voiced my concern on Astro increasing its stake in South Asia FM.

MIB (Maybank Investment Bank) had a report out and I was lucky to grab a hold of it. In it..

• South Asia FM is loss-making. It recorded a RM51.9m net loss RM51.9m in FY09 and although Astro is positive about its long term prospects, is not expected to break even for at least another two years. As it is now an associate, Astro could recognize its share of losses amounting to approximately RM10m p.a. (RM51.9m X 20%). We maintain our earnings estimates as the impact on earnings is not significant at <5%>

So how?

South Asia is making losses!

And Astro is pumping more money in it.

Incredible yo!

And needless to say MIB adds.

• Expensive at 3.4x book. We understand that only Astro has injected equity into South Asia FM only recently. The additional 13% stake acquired values the whole company at RM465.1m, equivalent to 3.4x its enlarged net book value (RM85m FY09 net book value + RM50m subscription proceeds).

Is Astro making any sense?

Increasing stake - paying more money and at an expensive price for a company that is losing quite a lot of money?

How la?

Does it's shareholders knows exactly what is happening? For I sure do not!

Some Comments On Astro

Past few weeks, many are aware of the many so-called articles making insinuations that Astro could be worth much more if it sold of its overseas operations. The justification is Astro's Malaysia's operations is doing great and making tons of money. Some suggested that it could even go private.

Here's one such past news article: Astro studying revamp proposals

• Astro All Asia Networks plc is considering various proposals to restructure the company in efforts to put in place an efficient capital and corporate structure. The exercise may include a separation of its overseas operations, as well as a possible one-time special dividend payoff.
  
  At a press conference after the company’s AGM yesterday, deputy chairman and group CEO Ralph Marshall said the board had not decided on any of the proposals that its bankers had put forth and that no timeframe had been set for any possible restructuring.
  
  Over the weekend, several media reports speculated Astro was considering a plan to divest its unprofitable international operations in a deal valued at about RM9bil......

The privatisation idea had been shot down repeatedly and so has the ludicrous one-time special dividend payoff.

And yes, the overseas operations NOT doing good for Astro.

However, if this would be true, then do consider the following clip from Dow Jones news wire last night.

• KUALA LUMPUR (Dow Jones)-- Astro All Asia Networks Plc (5076.KU) Monday said it has raised its stake in Indian radio station South Asia FM Ltd. to 20% from 6.98% for MYR60.5 million (INR790.5 million).
  
  The Malaysian satellite-TV operator said in a stock exchange filing that its wholly-owned unit, South Asia Multimedia Technologies Ltd., acquired the additional 13% stake in South Asia FM via a combination of new share issues and shares of existing shareholder A.H. Multisoft Private Ltd.
  
  South Asia FM is a 59%-owned unit of Sun TV Network Ltd. (532733.BY), the company said.

So how?

Me? I am confused.

This latest corporate exercise from Astro does not suggest that it wants to sell of its overseas operations at all. Instead it wants to pump in more moolah! Yeah, pump up the volume yo!

So how and why should one want to try to evaluate Astro without its overseas operations when it appears that they have no intention to do so?

Me? I surely do not know how to and neither do I understand the justification to do so.

Astro and its overseas operations remains as one.

And in regards to its overseas investments.

I wonder where and how Astro is making the justification to invest more and more money overseas when clearly there isn't the return to justify such investments. I wonder if the minority shareholders question such wisdom.

Yeah, I do understand that sometimes company , that do behave exactly like an investor. Well, why shouldn't they? They make an investment and they prefer to hold steadfast to their original investment ideas. Which is good practise but there's a fine line here because sometimes like share market investing, poor judgement exists!

Yes, people do screw up and make mistakes. And to hold on stubbornly to a bad idea could be disastrous!

And I do have an example.

How's the idea of building a tropical island resort in a colder country like Germany?

Does this sound like a sure win idea? Or does this sound like a wild, wild idea which could fail? And if so, shouldn't there be a point where the company should put their hands up and say 'sorry folks, that idea was poor!'?

Well, this is the story of Tanjong's Tropical Island Resort Investment which despite making losses all these years, the company held on stubbornly to this rather poor investment idea. End result? Millions and millions lost. ( See Tanjong also. )

So how?

Could Astro continue to spend millions (and not make justified returns) in its overseas investments?

Me? I think there's a fair chance that Astro will continue to do so.

Featured Report: OSK On Astro All Asia Again!

Sometimes when you continue writing on a subject, your readers get tired of it and you, the writer also get sick of it too.

However, sometimes, it really gets so ...... stunning, that you are really left speechless.

I was left speechless when I saw OSK's report on Astro All Asia.

Back on 21st July 2009, I wrote the following. Featured Report: OSK Research On Astro All Asia
And today, if I am not mistaken, it's only 31st July 2009.

Anyway, as I had summarised, the following were the recommendations from OSK on Astro since Dec 2008.

1. 16 Dec 2008. Trading Buy Maintained 2.90.
2. 4th Feb 2009. Downgrade to Neutral. TP downgraded to 2.20.
3. 17th Feb 2009. Neutral maintained. 2.20.
4. 4th March 2009. Neutral maintained. 2.20.
5. 18th March 2009. Neutral maintained. TP downgraded to 2.00.
6. 17th April 2009. Trading Buy upgrade. TP upgraded to 2.92.
7. 21st May 2009. Trading Buy maintained. 2.92.
8. 1st June 2009. Trading Buy maintained TP upgraded to 3.50.
9. 15th June 2009, Trading Buy maintained 3.20-3.50.
10. 20th July 2009. Trading Buy maintained. TP upgraded to 4.20.

Yes, their last report was titled 'Windfall for Shareholders?' (I wonder what's the question mark for. Isn't it redunant since OSK takes into consideration that it would most likely to happen?)

Here's the link to the previous screenshot again. here

And here's their today report.

• In a swift move that is not totally unexpected, Astro said it will be raising the subscription price for its popular sports package by RM12/mth w.e.f. Aug 1. We estimate the price hike would increase our FY10/11 core earnings by 8.3%-16.2%, all else being equal. Historical precedence would suggest little down-trading activities from price hikes and where we expect the re-pricing to mitigate the pressure from escalating content cost going forward. Maintain TRADING BUY rating with a revised target price of RM3.92 based on DCF (WACC-10.5%).

I do not know to laugh of loud or cry.

The very same analyst that made the wild calls since Dec 2008, had forgotten that his last call, was on 20th July 2009 ( I wonder how many days ago) and on that day, he rated Astro to be a trading buy with a price target of 4.20.

Now he revised the price target to 3.92.

From 4.20 to 3.92, that's a rather hefty revision DOWNWARDS, yes????

And see how nicely he just mentioned as a 'revised price target'.

Now this isn't too accurate, eh?

Some might call it being snakey too!

If anyone did not read or follow his previous calls, would they have known that this is a price revision downwards????

And yeah... hey, it's still a TRADING BUY Maintained!

No one does it better hor?

And for the record again...

1. 16 Dec 2008. Trading Buy Maintained 2.90.
2. 4th Feb 2009. Downgrade to Neutral. TP downgraded to 2.20.
3. 17th Feb 2009. Neutral maintained. 2.20.
4. 4th March 2009. Neutral maintained. 2.20.
5. 18th March 2009. Neutral maintained. TP downgraded to 2.00.
6. 17th April 2009. Trading Buy upgrade. TP upgraded to 2.92.
7. 21st May 2009. Trading Buy maintained. 2.92.
8. 1st June 2009. Trading Buy maintained TP upgraded to 3.50.
9. 15th June 2009, Trading Buy maintained 3.20-3.50.
10. 20th July 2009. Trading Buy maintained. TP upgraded to 4.20.
11. 31st July 2009. Trading Buy maintained. TP revised to 3.92.

Featured Report: OSK Research On Astro All Asia

How a stock target price is raised from 2.00 to 4.20 in 5 months.

I chuckled as I was reading OSK's report on Astro All Asia. I do remember back in March OSK had a TP of only 2.00 for Astro. Anyway, with Astro hot in the news and the stock tumbling down, I thought it would do justice to highlight how OSK had been recommending Astro since Dec 2008.

If one had been following Astro, when Astro announced its earnings back in Dec, many were again disappointed with the amount of the losses from its overseas ventures.

• 16-12-2008: Astro posts RM250m 3Q net loss
  by Lim Shie-Lynn
  
  KUALA LUMPUR: Astro All Asia Networks plc made a net loss of RM250.4 million from a profit of RM34.02 million for its third quarter (3Q) for the financial year ending Jan 31, 2009 (3Q09) on start-up losses in its overseas investments and further provisions in relation to its Indonesian venture. ....... (clip from Edge Financial Daily)

16th December 2008.

• Stripping out the additional provisions made in 3QFY09 for the carrying value of certain broadcasting equipment and IP rights in Indonesia, Astro’s 9MFY08 core net earnings were in line with our expectations. We have left our FY09 forecast largely unchanged while cutting our FY10 forecast by 31%, assuming a further deterioration in the economic outlook. Accordingly, our DCF target price has been lowered to RM2.90 based on a WACC of 12%. We maintain our TRADING BUY call.

Yes, despite the clear deterioration, OSK stuck with their bold trading buy (maintained) at 2.90. ( I do recall that they were being more optimistic. Aseambankers had Astro at 2.50 and RHB had Astro only at 2.05)

Come 4th Feb 2009. Astro was trading around 2.14!

And guess what?

OSK did a downgrade. I kid you not!

And the TP was lowered from 2.90 to 2.20.

• FY10 forecast cut further, 20% discount reinstated on SOP target. We downgrade the stock to a NEUTRAL from TRADING BUY given the dearth of re-rating catalysts and lingering concerns over additional provisions to be made in Indonesia in the medium-term. While Astro’s share price seems to have priced in the inherent risks on earnings to a certain extent, we think the market is not in a hurry to re-rate its shares for fear of more disappointments. Recall the negative surprise in its 3QFY09 results, whereby management had guided for further write-offs to the tune of RM75m in the final quarter for unsettled business in Indonesia......

On 17th Feb 2009. Astro falls to just 2.06. OSK maintains the recommendation and had the TP at 2.20.

On 4th March 2009, Astro is now 1.99 and OSK held firm. :D



March 17th 2009. Astro announced its earnings. They lost some 28.8 million!

OSK lowers their target price to just 2.00 but maintains their Neutral. Astro was only trading around 1.88 then!


But market was starting to get hot in March yes?

Let's highlight the call recommendations since Dec 2008.

1. 16 Dec 2008. Trading Buy Maintained 2.90.
2. 4th Feb 2009. Downgrade to Neutral. 2.20.
3. 17th Feb 2009. Neutral maintained. 2.20.
4. 4th March 2009. Neutral maintained. 2.20.
5. 18th March 2009. Neutral maintained. 2.00.

On April 2009, Astro was moving much higher already.

Come 17th April 2009, Astro was trading at 2.41 and OSK upgraded Astro to a TRADING BUY with a TP of 2.92. (Back to Dec 2008 valuations eh? :p2 )

And the justification given? Astro was expected to retain its EPL rights. LOL! I mean suddenly EPL rights became an issue and because of this, Astro is suddenly worth some 92 sen more!

LOL!

I wonder... if one day... if Astro ever loses its EPL rights, would OSK come out and downgrade Astro value by 92 sen?

21 May 2009, Astro now trades at 2.68. OSK maintains its call and target prices.

Then came that MAXIS story. LOL!

I kid you not. Posting that should be read: Maxis And Astro Slams OSK Speculative Report.

1st June 2009, Trading Buy maintained. TP increased to 3.50!!

Some two weeks later, Astro announced its report. Strange since Astro denied that BS Maxis thingee, OSK did not 'take back' the upgraded price. Instead it had a muddled target price between 3.20 and 3.50. LOL! I kid you not once more.


And what was so incredible was the header 'GROWTH SUSTAINED'!

I sure was confused!

The previous earnings reported in March 2009 saw Astro losing some 28.8 million! And the previous quarter before that in December 2008, Astro lost some 250 million.

Like this also can?

What growth was OSK talking about?

Fast forward to yesterday, OSK gave Astro another upgrade in its TP to 4.20!!


Now when I look back since Dec 2008.

1. 16 Dec 2008. Trading Buy Maintained 2.90.
2. 4th Feb 2009. Downgrade to Neutral. TP downgraded to 2.20.
3. 17th Feb 2009. Neutral maintained. 2.20.
4. 4th March 2009. Neutral maintained. 2.20.
5. 18th March 2009. Neutral maintained. TP downgraded to 2.00.
6. 17th April 2009. Trading Buy upgrade. TP upgraded to 2.92.
7. 21st May 2009. Trading Buy maintained. 2.92.
8. 1st June 2009. Trading Buy maintained TP upgraded to 3.50.
9. 15th June 2009, Trading Buy maintained 3.20-3.50.
10. 20th July 2009. Trading Buy maintained. TP upgraded to 4.20.

Nobody does it better eh?

:D