And the Dow Theorist, Tim Woods reckons that we are a long way from being out of the woods.
Mr. Woods wrote the following in FinancialSense market wrap on Friday.
- Now the question at hand is, did the October 2007 top mark THE top of this entire bull market advance up from the 1974 low? If so, then we are now operating within the context of a much longer-term secular bear market that should serve to correct the entire 1974 to 2007 bull market. Also, based upon the historical bull and bear market relationships of the past, the 33 year bull market period should be corrected by a 10 to 12 year bear market, which, based on the 2007 top, would take the bear market down into the 2017 to 2019 timeframe. Another point I want to make here is that back in 2000 the bull market from 1974 was only 26 years in duration and one-third of that would have been some 8 to 9 years, which means that if they would have let the bear market that tried to begin back then unfold, we would now be coming out of a natural bear market bottom in which a real advance could have occurred. Rather, they fought it tooth and nail and were ultimately able to extend the bull market into 2007. As I said all along, this only served to make matters worse. We now have a 33-year bear market to correct and we are only one year into it. Point being, if we have truly seen THE bull market top, then we still have some 9 plus years to go based on these typical bull/bear market relationships and fighting it will only extend the inevitable and make matters worse.
Source: Why Opinions Differ and Brief Update (Fully recommend you to read the full article!)
Also Double T had also highlighted me the following: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/shiller-crisis-may-run-for-years-and-years/