Friday, August 08, 2008

Baltic Dry Index Keeps Falling!

The Baltic Dry Index closed much lower again!

I have now lost count already how many consecutive days this index has closed lower!



And the downgrades is flying out left, right and center!

  • Mitsui O.S.K. Leads Shipping Lines Lower After UBS Ratings Cut

    Aug. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Mitsui O.S.K. Lines Ltd. fell the most in a year, leading Japanese shipping lines lower in Tokyo trading, after UBS AG cut its rating on the stock and an index of fees for transporting iron ore and coal fell for a 20th day.

    Mitsui O.S.K., Japan's second-largest shipping line by sales, dropped as much as 8.2 percent to 1,171 yen and traded at 1,197 yen as of 9:26 a.m. in Tokyo. Nippon Yusen K.K., Japan's largest shipping line, declined 5.3 percent to 824 yen. Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd., Japan's third-largest, fell 6.4 percent.

    UBS cut its ratings on Kawasaki Kisen, Mitsui O.S.K. and Nippon Yusen to ``neutral'' from ``buy.'' The Baltic Dry Index had its biggest drop in two months yesterday, extending its decline to the longest since 2005,
    as Chinese demand declined in the run-up to the Olympic Games and commodity prices fell.

    ``The drop in the Baltic index is accelerating,'' said Yoshihisa Miyamoto, an analyst in Tokyo at Okasan Securities Co.
    ``Shipping stocks may fall another 20 percent.''

    China closed construction sites and shuttered factories in and around Beijing to clear smog while athletes and tourists are in the city. The country's manufacturing industry contracted for the first time in at least three years in July. ( source of article
    here )

See also previous update : Update of Baltic Dry Index and also older posting of interests: Goldman Downgrades Bulk Shippers! and The Collapse of the Baltic Dry Index

How?

If you own a dry bulk shipping stock such as Maybulk, would you still HOLD the stock?


2 comments:

random said...

NO.

alpha said...

If one really understands how the freight market works, one would have dumped the stock long ago. The cycle for freight is rather long, I suspect between 10-15 years or longer. Not sure though but if you know things move in cycles, you should avoid shipping stocks now as the global economy has peaked, now probably heading into a sharper than expected slowdown or recession.