Tuesday, July 21, 2009

Featured Report: OSK Research On Astro All Asia

How a stock target price is raised from 2.00 to 4.20 in 5 months.

I chuckled as I was reading OSK's report on Astro All Asia. I do remember back in March OSK had a TP of only 2.00 for Astro. Anyway, with Astro hot in the news and the stock tumbling down, I thought it would do justice to highlight how OSK had been recommending Astro since Dec 2008.

If one had been following Astro, when Astro announced its earnings back in Dec, many were again disappointed with the amount of the losses from its overseas ventures.

  • 16-12-2008: Astro posts RM250m 3Q net loss
    by Lim Shie-Lynn

    KUALA LUMPUR: Astro All Asia Networks plc made a net loss of RM250.4 million from a profit of RM34.02 million for its third quarter (3Q) for the financial year ending Jan 31, 2009 (3Q09) on start-up losses in its overseas investments and further provisions in relation to its Indonesian venture. ....... (clip from Edge Financial Daily)

16th December 2008.

  • Stripping out the additional provisions made in 3QFY09 for the carrying value of certain broadcasting equipment and IP rights in Indonesia, Astro’s 9MFY08 core net earnings were in line with our expectations. We have left our FY09 forecast largely unchanged while cutting our FY10 forecast by 31%, assuming a further deterioration in the economic outlook. Accordingly, our DCF target price has been lowered to RM2.90 based on a WACC of 12%. We maintain our TRADING BUY call.

Yes, despite the clear deterioration, OSK stuck with their bold trading buy (maintained) at 2.90. ( I do recall that they were being more optimistic. Aseambankers had Astro at 2.50 and RHB had Astro only at 2.05)

Come 4th Feb 2009. Astro was trading around 2.14!

And guess what?

OSK did a downgrade. I kid you not!

And the TP was lowered from 2.90 to 2.20.
  • FY10 forecast cut further, 20% discount reinstated on SOP target. We downgrade the stock to a NEUTRAL from TRADING BUY given the dearth of re-rating catalysts and lingering concerns over additional provisions to be made in Indonesia in the medium-term. While Astro’s share price seems to have priced in the inherent risks on earnings to a certain extent, we think the market is not in a hurry to re-rate its shares for fear of more disappointments. Recall the negative surprise in its 3QFY09 results, whereby management had guided for further write-offs to the tune of RM75m in the final quarter for unsettled business in Indonesia......

On 17th Feb 2009. Astro falls to just 2.06. OSK maintains the recommendation and had the TP at 2.20.

On 4th March 2009, Astro is now 1.99 and OSK held firm. :D

March 17th 2009. Astro announced its earnings. They lost some 28.8 million!

OSK lowers their target price to just 2.00 but maintains their Neutral. Astro was only trading around 1.88 then!

But market was starting to get hot in March yes?

Let's highlight the call recommendations since Dec 2008.

  1. 16 Dec 2008. Trading Buy Maintained 2.90.
  2. 4th Feb 2009. Downgrade to Neutral. 2.20.
  3. 17th Feb 2009. Neutral maintained. 2.20.
  4. 4th March 2009. Neutral maintained. 2.20.
  5. 18th March 2009. Neutral maintained. 2.00.

On April 2009, Astro was moving much higher already.

Come 17th April 2009, Astro was trading at 2.41 and OSK upgraded Astro to a TRADING BUY with a TP of 2.92. (Back to Dec 2008 valuations eh? :p2 )

And the justification given? Astro was expected to retain its EPL rights. LOL! I mean suddenly EPL rights became an issue and because of this, Astro is suddenly worth some 92 sen more!


I wonder... if one day... if Astro ever loses its EPL rights, would OSK come out and downgrade Astro value by 92 sen?

21 May 2009, Astro now trades at 2.68. OSK maintains its call and target prices.

Then came that MAXIS story. LOL!

I kid you not. Posting that should be read: Maxis And Astro Slams OSK Speculative Report.

1st June 2009, Trading Buy maintained. TP increased to 3.50!!

Some two weeks later, Astro announced its report. Strange since Astro denied that BS Maxis thingee, OSK did not 'take back' the upgraded price. Instead it had a muddled target price between 3.20 and 3.50. LOL! I kid you not once more.

And what was so incredible was the header 'GROWTH SUSTAINED'!

I sure was confused!

The previous earnings reported in March 2009 saw Astro losing some 28.8 million! And the previous quarter before that in December 2008, Astro lost some 250 million.

Like this also can?

What growth was OSK talking about?

Fast forward to yesterday, OSK gave Astro another upgrade in its TP to 4.20!!

Now when I look back since Dec 2008.

  1. 16 Dec 2008. Trading Buy Maintained 2.90.
  2. 4th Feb 2009. Downgrade to Neutral. TP downgraded to 2.20.
  3. 17th Feb 2009. Neutral maintained. 2.20.
  4. 4th March 2009. Neutral maintained. 2.20.
  5. 18th March 2009. Neutral maintained. TP downgraded to 2.00.
  6. 17th April 2009. Trading Buy upgrade. TP upgraded to 2.92.
  7. 21st May 2009. Trading Buy maintained. 2.92.
  8. 1st June 2009. Trading Buy maintained TP upgraded to 3.50.
  9. 15th June 2009, Trading Buy maintained 3.20-3.50.
  10. 20th July 2009. Trading Buy maintained. TP upgraded to 4.20.

Nobody does it better eh?



MaxWealth88 said...

would you think that astro ex its international operations is a good buy?

Moolah said...

0758 GMT [Dow Jones] Astro All Asia (5076.KU) down 3.5% at MYR3.30 in heavy volume as investors exhibit disappointment after group denies it's planning corporate exercise to divest and house international assets under separate entity from listed Malaysian operations. Group also denied plans to pay a one-off special dividend of MYR1.00 per share. "I think investors left no stone unturned and came up with a host of possibilities for the group while rumors were circulating. The denial has taken the wind out of its sails," says one dealer. Expects stock to drift down to between MYR3.20 and MYR3.30 over next few days. (VGB)

Richard Cranium said...

I would buy the stock [again!] if it retraces further.

Their idea is to push the price further down before making the GO?

Please, please, please, be that, please.

Moolah said...

That will be good for speculators like you...

but... but... but... but....

for lonnnnnnnnng term INvestORs....

that ain't too nice.

Yeah... life could be cruel.... but could be ABSOLUTELY fantastic depending which side of the fence one is at.