Friday, July 31, 2009

Featured Report: OSK On Astro All Asia Again!

Sometimes when you continue writing on a subject, your readers get tired of it and you, the writer also get sick of it too.

However, sometimes, it really gets so ...... stunning, that you are really left speechless.

I was left speechless when I saw OSK's report on Astro All Asia.

Back on 21st July 2009, I wrote the following.
Featured Report: OSK Research On Astro All Asia
And today, if I am not mistaken, it's only 31st July 2009.

Anyway, as I had summarised, the following were the recommendations from OSK on Astro since Dec 2008.

  1. 16 Dec 2008. Trading Buy Maintained 2.90.
  2. 4th Feb 2009. Downgrade to Neutral. TP downgraded to 2.20.
  3. 17th Feb 2009. Neutral maintained. 2.20.
  4. 4th March 2009. Neutral maintained. 2.20.
  5. 18th March 2009. Neutral maintained. TP downgraded to 2.00.
  6. 17th April 2009. Trading Buy upgrade. TP upgraded to 2.92.
  7. 21st May 2009. Trading Buy maintained. 2.92.
  8. 1st June 2009. Trading Buy maintained TP upgraded to 3.50.
  9. 15th June 2009, Trading Buy maintained 3.20-3.50.
  10. 20th July 2009. Trading Buy maintained. TP upgraded to 4.20.

Yes, their last report was titled 'Windfall for Shareholders?' (I wonder what's the question mark for. Isn't it redunant since OSK takes into consideration that it would most likely to happen?)

Here's the link to the previous screenshot again. here

And here's their today report.

  • In a swift move that is not totally unexpected, Astro said it will be raising the subscription price for its popular sports package by RM12/mth w.e.f. Aug 1. We estimate the price hike would increase our FY10/11 core earnings by 8.3%-16.2%, all else being equal. Historical precedence would suggest little down-trading activities from price hikes and where we expect the re-pricing to mitigate the pressure from escalating content cost going forward. Maintain TRADING BUY rating with a revised target price of RM3.92 based on DCF (WACC-10.5%).

I do not know to laugh of loud or cry.

The very same analyst that made the wild calls since Dec 2008, had forgotten that his last call, was on 20th July 2009 ( I wonder how many days ago) and on that day, he rated Astro to be a trading buy with a price target of 4.20.

Now he revised the price target to 3.92.

From 4.20 to 3.92, that's a rather hefty revision DOWNWARDS, yes????

And see how nicely he just mentioned as a 'revised price target'.

Now this isn't too accurate, eh?

Some might call it being snakey too!

If anyone did not read or follow his previous calls, would they have known that this is a price revision downwards????

And yeah... hey, it's still a TRADING BUY Maintained!

No one does it better hor?

And for the record again...

  1. 16 Dec 2008. Trading Buy Maintained 2.90.
  2. 4th Feb 2009. Downgrade to Neutral. TP downgraded to 2.20.
  3. 17th Feb 2009. Neutral maintained. 2.20.
  4. 4th March 2009. Neutral maintained. 2.20.
  5. 18th March 2009. Neutral maintained. TP downgraded to 2.00.
  6. 17th April 2009. Trading Buy upgrade. TP upgraded to 2.92.
  7. 21st May 2009. Trading Buy maintained. 2.92.
  8. 1st June 2009. Trading Buy maintained TP upgraded to 3.50.
  9. 15th June 2009, Trading Buy maintained 3.20-3.50.
  10. 20th July 2009. Trading Buy maintained. TP upgraded to 4.20.
  11. 31st July 2009. Trading Buy maintained. TP revised to 3.92.



2 comments:

teck chen said...

Hello friend,

You shouldn't be too hard on the OSK guy. Give him a break. After all, share price prediction is like the weather forecast. The weather is capricious, so too is the share market.

More so with Astro shares. What with the legal problem in their Indonesian venture and the uncertainties with their investment in India. Also, the speculation of AK taking it private and what not.

The OSK forecasts weren't all that bad. You see, analysts have to take into account the market sentiment when they make their calls. You would be crazy if you make a call 50% more than the market price in early March 2009. However, if your call is 50% more than the market price today, people will believe you and jump into the river.

I think the moolah is in Astro. Happy investing.

lps

Moolah said...

teck chen,

Perhaps you failed to see my point.

It's ok. My points are never important. :)

Anyway, if you would still like to indulge in me, for this incident, do look nicely at what is happening.

His latest revision was a downwards. The TP went from 4.20 to 3.92.

Now that's a lot, no?

And since this revision is to the downside, why can't the analyst be more transparent and tell it as it is?

Why can't he say it?

Calling it as a trading buy with just a price revision is not telling it as it is!

Some calls it less than true.

Won't you agree?

For the researcher is NOT telling the reader if this was an upward price revision or downwards price revision.

My issue?

I would like to see things improve.

Say it as it is.

No need to twist and turn.

That's my main intention to highlight all this stuff.

Don't you like to see things improve?

Sorry I would.