According to Sources

Let me ask what I have been asking all this while.

What purpose does our financial news serve when it publishes nothing but based on unconfirmed sources?

Think about it.

Or is our financial news merely a tool to push up shares in the share market?

How?

Have a look at this article: Taking Mycron private - Melewar considers taking company off Bursa Malaysia.

• MELEWAR Industrial Group Bhd may be looking to take its subsidiary Mycron Steel Bhd private, sources familiar with the matter tell BizWeek.
  
  It is understood that Melewar is likely to make an offer of between 70 sen and RM1 for the shares in Mycron Steel it does not already own.

According to what sources?

The tea-lady? Or the driver? Or the toilet cleaner?

What sources?

It is understood. Say, who is understanding what??? Based on what facts?

• “Many things might happen, they might even hive off Mycron Steel, as the price could be attractive, with the strong rates for cold rolled coil steel, which is Mycron Steel’s bread and butter,” an industry source says.

Huh?

Com on.

Financial news should be based on facts, right?

If our entire financial news reporter started writing based on 'Many things might happen', just imagine the consequences of such blatant reporting.

And of course, you would note the 'Industry source'.

And when so much sources is added, have a look at this announcement:

MYCRON STEEL BERHAD - ARTICLE ENTITLED : "Taking Mycron private"

• We refer to the query letter dated 27 November 2006 issued by Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad in respect of the article appearing in The Star, Bizweek Section, Page BW3, Saturday, 27 November 2006.
  
  The Company wishes to inform that the Company is not aware of such intention to privatise the Company.

How?

For whom does the news article serve?

Or can our financial news reporter write as they fancy??

And sometimes, don't you think it is a waste of time that the plc mentioned has to divert their time from daily business schedule just to reply to the Bursa Malaysia.

Wouldn't it better if such reporters would refrain from writing such articles?

Perhaps, they might consider writing for a comic where all mystical sources live in their fantasy world? The best of sources, eh?

Now that would be an excellent idea, wouldn't it?

Or perhaps how about their news editorial posting a disclaimer such as this below:

• Disclaimer
  
  The following news article is based on sources which really could be anyone. It might be the tea lady, the driver or even the toilet cleaner. The reporter is allowed as creatively as possible for this creates the much needed excitement in the stock. Now think about it. Who wants a dead market right? Hence, the editorial feels that it is ok that our financial news is based on sources and more sources.
  
  And because of this, the editorial would like to remind all readers to take our financial news as seriously as possible.
  
  Thank you

Show Me the Money Dude!!!

Lion Diversified's quarterly earnings is interesting.

Did you see what I am seeing?

No?

Let me show you the money!!

Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 30/9/2006

Have a look at their balance sheet.

See the Moola?

rm1,710,045.00!!!!

Filthy rich, if you ask me!

So if you are an investor, and considering that this is the SHARE market, is Lion D sharing its wealth with you?

Is it?

All I remember that there is a news report posted on the Edge stating the following:

• 6 Nov 2006: Corporate: Lion Div's DRI plant to cost RM1 bil By Siow Chen Ming
  Lion Diversified Holdings Bhd (Lion Div), the shining star of the Lion Group, is forking out as much as RM1 billion to put up a direct-reduced iron (DRI) plant in Banting. Sources say the plant, which is integrated with the existing flat steel or hot-rolled coil (HRC) plant of Megasteel Sdn Bhd, is expected to be ready by the second quarter of next year. The DRI plant will supply feedstock to Megasteel, which now uses scrap metal or hot briquetted iron (HBI) as feed stock.

US Dollar, Housing & Stock Market

Saw a report stating that one should not to sweat about the US Housing Market ( here ). Wow. No worries? Just be happy?

The US Market slumped to their biggest one-drop since July 2006. ( CNN report: here )

Most interesting note is:

• Having rallied since the summer, stocks were probably vulnerable for a bit of a pullback Monday, analysts said. That was exacerbated by some negative news Monday, including a slide in the U.S. dollar to a 20-month low versus the euro, a nearly 2 percent jump in the price of oil, and a big run up in gold prices.

Rob Kirby has an interesting editorial called It's All About the Dollar .

• IT'S ALL ABOUT THE DOLLAR
  

  While America celebrated Thanksgiving, foreign exchange markets behaved in an unruly fashion with the U.S. Dollar Index precipitously dropping to 83.60 – falling out of a range between 85.10 and 85.71 which had held for some four weeks between October 26 and November 21.

  
  

  The following is a synopsis of the Dollar’s predicament - derived largely from the Privateer's most recent weekly newsletter.

  
  

  This precipitous drop in the Dollar was conveniently attributed, by the mainstream financial press, as reaction to yet another Chinese monetary official making the case for diversification of sovereign Chinese forex reserves – which had ballooned to $U.S. 1 Trillion on November 6.

  
  

  "Firstly, long-term interest rates are falling (meaning lower returns on bond investments). Secondly, the exchange rate of the US dollar, which is the major reserve currency, is going lower, increasing the depreciation risk for east Asian reserve assets," Wu said.

  
  

  Sounds like a credible explanation, doesn’t it?

  
  

  Other media outlets tried to explain the Dollar’s drop to the “anticipated narrowing” of interest rates between the U.S. and Euroland – with the European Central Bank [ECB] widely expected to raise their benchmark lending rate 3.50% on December 7 when they meet with the Fed, whose FOMC meets one week later, is widely expected to leave rates unchanged.

  
  

  Still other reasons proffered run the gamut from the cessation of the Yen Carry Trade to thin markets resulting from North American traders being on vacation.

  
  

  Who’s to argue with any of these reasons – here’s what happened:

  
  

  

  
  

  Now For The Real Reason

  
  

  As the Privateer’s editor - Bill Bucker - so eruditely points out,

  
  

  “The [real] reason why the US Dollar is weak is that it is a fiat currency backed by nothing. True, so is every other currency in the world. But the US, along with having a fiat currency, also has a level of debt - “public” and private - unapproached by any other nation.”

  
  

  The chart of the 35 year history of the U.S. dollar since President Nixon closed the Gold Window in August of 1971 tells the story:

  
  

  

  
  

  And Here’s Why It’s Different This Time:

  
  

  Once again, I’ll defer to the words of Bill Bucker:

  
  

  The US has had a fiat currency for thirty-five years - since August 1971 when federal government debt was $US 400 Billion. It has been a net international debtor for more than twenty-one years - since March 1985 when federal government debt was just under $US 2 TRILLION. The present Bush Administration, now halfway through its second term, has already amassed nearly HALF of all Federal Government debt borrowed since 1787. But the Bush Administration (and the US Congress) have done more than that. They have also destroyed the reputation of the United States of America in the eyes of the world.

  
  

  And HERE lies the REAL danger to the US Dollar.

  
  

  As analysed in this issue and the previous issue of The Privateer (Numbers 565 and 566), US foreign policy is in tatters. The downward spiral of US global influence and clout in the less than three weeks since the mid-term elections on November 7 has been awesome to behold.

  
  

  It is inevitable that this loss of “clout” and this examination of the ever widening gulf between the words and DEEDS of the US federal government will spill over into the financial system in general and into US markets in particular. We have now seen the start - with the sudden dive of the USDX this week.

  
  

  In a nutshell folks, for all of the reasons above – this is why Jim Puplava and Financial Sense crew are such ardent advocates of proper asset diversification among ALL asset categories – including foreign currencies, precious metals and resources.

Advice Given For Magnum Shareholders

Yes, one should NEVER had invested in Magnum given all the questionable issues and perhaps one should really LEARN the lesson of never investing in a company whose management are questionable.

Anyway, let me NOT rub it in anymore for you Magnum shareholders.

Here is an investment advice given by RHB Reserach.

---------------------------

27 November 2006 - RHB RESEARCH INSTITUTE SDN. BHD.

Magnum Corporation

Offer Not Attractive For Minorities

Share Price : RM2.26 Fair Value : RM2.30 Recom : Market Perform (Upgraded).

Analyst : Low Yee Huap, CFA Tel : (603) 9280 2175 E-mail : low.yee.huap@rhb.com.my

. MPHB make offer for Magnum. Multi-Purpose Holdings Bhd (MPHB), the parent of Magnum, has served a notice of offer to acquire the remaining 60% stake in Magnum that MPHB does not own. The offer price is RM2.30 per Magnum share amounting to RM1.976bn. It is the intention of MPHB to increase its stake in Magnum from 40% to 60% and maintain the latter’s listing status. The offer is expected to complete in 1Q07.

. Magnum to take Magnum 4D private. In another separate announcement, Magnum said that it has served a notice of offer to acquire the remaining 23.89% in Magnum 4D (M4D) that Magnum does not own. The offer price is RM3.00 per M4D share amounting to RM119.5m. Magnum does not intend to maintain the listing status of M4D. The offer is expected to complete in 1Q07.

. A faster avenue for MPHB to reach its target. MPHB has stated previously that it is the group’s intention to make Magnum a subsidiary (from the current associate stake). However, to prevent a GO, it is limited to an incremental increase of 2% per annum. With the current stake of 40%, it will take MPHB another five years to achieve its goal. This offer would be a faster avenue to achieve its target.

. Don’t take the MPHB offer. Although the offer price is higher than our previous fair value of RM1.90, we are recommending that shareholders DO NOT take the offer for the following reasons:

1. Offer price is below our conservative SOP of RM2.53. Note that we have assigned zero value for its investments and properties as well as a 50% discount to its loan debtors. If we add back these assets at cost (as at Sep 06), it will boost our SOP by circa 70 sen.

2. Our conservative SOP and previous 25% discount to SOP were premised on concerns about its non-operating risks and higher luck factor risk as well as inability to unlock low yielding assets (properties). Although there is value in the stock, we believe that without a massive clean up (loan debtors and investments), clear cash management policy and return of excess cash, it will be hard to crystalise the values.

3. Despite that, investors should not opt out of the stock cheaply and reduce their rights to have a more effective "check and balance".

. Earnings enhancement to privatise M4D. With elimination of minority interests, Magnum’s earnings are expected to rise by about 4-5% per annum.

. M4D shareholders should take the offer, in our view. This is due to the following reasons:

1. The structure between the two companies, M4D’s earnings are very volatile as it has to fund the prize payout. Prize payout is eratic given that it has relatively higher luck factor risk (arising from bigger bet size).

2. The above has contributed to M4D’s lacklustre share price performance.

Average transacted price of M4D over the last one year was only RM2.48, way below the offer price of RM3.00. Moreover, over the last 20 months, M4D’s share price only briefly crossed the RM3.00 mark three times.

3. M4D lacks liquidity as Magnum already own 76.1% of the stock.

. Upgrade to Market Perform. We remain wary about its opaque cash management policy as well as other non-operational risks. However, in view of the offer, we believe share price is likely to be sticky at around the offer price level. Thus, we have raised our fair value for the stock to RM2.30 and upgrade our recommendation to Market Perform..

Update on the Whacking of the US Dollar.

Here is an update to previous day post topic US Dollar Getting Whalloped.

Update:

November 24 2006: 2:56 PM EST
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The dollar took a plunge Friday as there were signs that the European Central Bank would likely continue to raise interest rates next year, sending American markets tumbling and giving a boost to Treasury bonds.

The euro rose to $1.3105 against the dollar, reaching a one-and-a-half-year high, up from $1.2940 Wednesday. The dollar bought ¥115.78, down from ¥116.74 in the previous session.

source:
http://money.cnn.com/2006/11/24/markets/bondcenter/bonds/index.htm?postversion=2006112414


other Links (AP): Dollar Falls Against Major Currencies

other link (CBS): http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/dollar-slumps-19-month-euro-low/story.aspx?guid=%7BB1219ADF%2DA78D%2D47C8%2DB692%2D8DE0FB576697%7D&siteId=

Some charts posted by Gary Tanashian: http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/tanashian/2006/1124.html




USD is breaking down from a bearish flag and a test of the major lows around 80 looks likely.




Euro breaking out of bullish flag on the way to a possible test of major highs.




Swissy is even more bullish then the Euro. See our short-term chart from 2 days ago.




Aussie dollar sporting something of a rising wedge up to a double top?




Now here is a large and bearish rising wedge on the Canadian Dollar in the process of breaking down.




Finally we find our favorite basket case, the Yen, actually looking bullish in the bigger picture

And some comments posted by Ashraf Laidi of CMC Markets NA.

===========================

The US Dollar drops to:

- 19-month lows against the euro at 1.31, down 2.5% on the month and 10.6% on the year

- 3 month lows against the yen at 115.62, down 1.1% on the month and 2.0% on the year.

- 23-month lows against sterling at 1.9348, down 1.4% on the month and 12.4% on the - year.

- 5-month lows against the Swiss franc at 1.2072, down 2.6% on the month and 8% on the year.

The dollar damage deteriorates in thin trading activity on a combination of the following:

1. Escalating optimism in Europe and inflation vigilance by the European Central Bank officials, particularly following Thursday's unexpectedly strong German IFO business climate survey matched a 15-year high in November at 106.8 from 105.3, overshooting expectations of a 105.2 reading. The survey not only increased speculation of further ECB rate hikes, but also dispelled speculation that the region's largest economy will be unfazed by next year's 3-point increase in the VAT tax. 5-month highs in French consumer confidence have also helped boost the euro.
   

2. Heavy unwinding of yen carry trade positions against the higher yielding currencies of the USD and AUD. As we have repeatedly warned before, the unwinding of USD/JPY carry trade positions particularly ensues as the Japanese yen -- largest currency provider of global capital reduces USD positions in anticipation of slower growth in the US, reduced risk appetite and anticipated reduction in stock market complacency seen through sub-10 levels in the VIX.
   

3. Comments from People's Bank of China warning about the risk to Asian currency reserves from further dollar slide, suggests that shifts from USD is already underway. The rise in the yen is also boosted by increased expectations that China will make more concrete decisions in its currency on reports that Fed Chairman Bernanke will join Treasury Secretary Paulson in a trip to China next month.
   

4. Talk of sovereign Mideast accounts buying euros is also accelerating the EURUSD rise, after the central bank of the United Arab Emirates and Qatar have long stated their intentions to shift towards EUR and gold in their currency reserves.
   

5. Increased expectations that the ensuing slowdown in the US will produce earlier than expected interest rate cuts in the US, with market odds of a March easing as high as 42%. Next week's array of US data increases the probability of not only increased evidence of slowing housing market but also dissipating inflationary pressures signaled through the October core PCE price index (expected down to 2.2% from 2.4%).
   

6. Gold prices have hit a fresh 21/2 month highs at 638.80 per ounce, breaching the 50% retracement of the major move from the May 2006 high of $730 per ounce to the June 2006 low of $549 per ounce.

The pace of the dollar downfall is highlighted by current losses in US stock futures, reflecting worries about foreign financing of the US trade deficit instead of producing the usual optimism fed on US exports. Japanese officials are unlikely to intervene today as the momentum in dollar selling has not yet receded.

The current euro rally/dollar sell-off may stabilize before end of the day but is unlikely to end in the short term as the fundamentals and market flows are increasingly stacked up against the US currency as clarified by the aforementioned factors -- which are seen long term in nature. Unlike in the EURUSD rallies of January 2004 and January 2005 when the ECB was NOT in a tightening cycle, today's euro rally is vitalized by current rate increases as well expectations of 50-bps of tightening in the next 4 months.

=============================

And Peter Schiff is saying that The U.S. Dollar is the Week's Biggest Turkey

Maxtral

Maxtral was listed in Aug 2003 via a RTO of General Lumber and in the restructuring exercise it involved the exchange of 10 Lumber shares into1 maxtral share and also there were some ICULs involved. Back then some 149.9M ordinary shares and 144.6M ICPS were issued. At the moment of writing, Maxtral has some 210.099 million shares and it has some 84.415 million shares of ICUL outstanding. (ICP can converted on 1-1 basis)

And another worthwhile point is that Maxtral has a private placement exercise of 88.354 million shares. This exercise had been approved but for some reason or another, it has been delayed and in its latest announcement back in Aug 2006, this pp has been granted extension till March 2006.

Couple of things - PP always dilute earnings and this 88.354 pp represents a possible dilution of close to 30% - assuming full conversion of iculs. Secondly, why not laku? Perhaps a bad manager for this exercise? (PM Securities is handling Maxtral's PP woh). PP in a hot market, could sometimes do strange stuff to a stock woh - i guess Unker will know what i mean. But timber is now hot. Perhaps, Maxtral could find some buyers for this PP.

Anway, this is Maxtral background according to surff-fatt-fatt back in 2003.

Tawau-based manufacturer of plywood, veneer and moulding products. Tawau-based Maxtral commenced business in 1990. Its plywood and veneer capacity was last doubled to 8,000 cu m per month in 2002, while the monthly capacity for moulding products has remained at 1,500 cu m in the past five years. Based on the latest available information, Maxtral operates at about 70% of its plywood capacity, and less than 20% of veneer.

Multi-sourcing for log supply. Maxtral has a log supply agreement for 15,000 cu m per month from Aug 2002 to Jul 2005 (with option to extend to Jul 2008), which is sufficient for its current log requirements. In the past, Maxtral has sourced logs from Indonesia, Brazil and New Zealand to capitalize on supply and pricing opportunities, and expects to still do so in future. We understand that it also intends to acquire its own timber concession while developing alternative wood sources such as from oil palm tree trunks or forest plantations.

US the main export market. Maxtral derives about 70% of its revenue from the export market, of which about 30% goes to the US. This followed a switch from predominantly Japan previously. Maxtral has a fairly high customer concentration with its top five customers accounting for more than 50% of revenue.

Maxtral has a two-year contract (beginning Nov 2002) to supply between 2,000 cu m to 5,000 cu m of FSC certified (timber certification for quality and environment practices) products per month to a Hong Kong-based customer, and a one-year contract to sell up to 3,000 cu m of veneer per month to a Korean company. Taking the lower end of the first contract and assuming half the maximum commitment for the second, Maxtral would have secured about two-thirds of its actual output in 2002 through the two new contracts. As both only started in late-2002, Maxtral should look towards higher profitability in 2003.

Couple of things.. the log agreement thingy. the option to extend to 2008. If Maxtral exercised that option it should be recording some decent profits. However, on the other hand, one should realise that Maxtral, like a couple of other timber/plwood stocks, it does not own its own timber concession. Hence Maxtral needs to source for its timber.

That was then.

So what has Maxtral done since?

     Sales    Earnings
2003 36.918 3.830
2004 100.354 5.880
2005 158.247 11.502
ttm 194.724 14.810

ttm = trailing tweleve months or most recent 4 quarters.

The ttm is indicating that Maxral should have a really decent fy 2006. So far, Maxtral last reported earnings was on 30th Aug 2006 and it reported its first half (2 quarters) earnings for fy 2006 to be at 6.973 million (which is much more than what Maxtral did last year (3.551 million) (and histroically, Maxtral q3 and q4 earnings is much stronger). And with most timber stocks showing really decent earnings, Maxtral earnings should be strong.

Here is the snapshot of earnings.. (note how Q3 and Q4 earnings is always stronger)...

Here is Maxtral's Balance sheet and Cash Flow

Maxtral is covered by ... and this is a snippet of what they wrote back on 1st Sept 2006.

Friday, 1 September 2006

BUY Price RM0.280 Target RM0.330

Mervin Chow Yan Hoong

Growing Up Well On Fertile Soil

Above expectation. Maxtral’s 1H06 turnover and net profit grew a massive 55.5% and 95.6% y-o-y respectively. Quarterly comparison, we saw a 60.3% and 25.9% YoY improvement in turnover and net profit as compared to 2Q05. Annualised net profit came in at RM13.5m, 43.8% above our forecasted figure.

Benefiting from high demand for timber products and shortage of logs. Growing up in an environment of shortage of logs which has led to increased demand for logs and other timber products, Maxtral is poised to gain and grow favourably since the recent run-up of prices for these products (Figure 3). Maxtral also has an exclusive access to 10,000 hectares of natural forest which will provide the Group with a steady large supply of logs for about 7 years. In addition to the benefit that Maxtral’s logs in the market will be able to fetch a very good price, availability of these in-house logs will also have significant and favourable impacts on the logs and timber products division’s earnings as its log input costs will be lower. In addition, we believe that the Group’s veneer and plywood division still has an excess capacity of about 40%-30%, which will also enable it to continue to meet the high and growing demand for these timber products.

Going for further expansion. The Group is issuing a RM100m Islamic Securities Facilities in which part of the proceeds will be utilised to finance the purchase of raw materials, capital expenditures and working capital of Maxtral. As part of the Group’s strive to upgrade its expertise, plant and machinery and range of products to meet the needs of its customers, Maxtral is investing RM15m to purchase a wood chip fuelled plant to mitigate the hike in diesel and upgrading of the mill infrastructure and facilities.

Venturing into oil palm industry. As part of the Group’s diversification strategy, Maxtral is planning to venture into the oil palm industry, which will give it positive contribution to top and bottom lines in the near future. However, things are still are not firmed yet as discussions are at their preliminary stage.

Reiterating BUY at RM0.33 target price (Figure 5). At current share price, Maxtral could still offer a further potential upside of 19.5%. As the Group is still in need of large working capital to grow, Maxtral is yet to pay any dividends to-date. However, management has indicated that it could potentially establish a longer-term dividend policy soon.

Ok, so what we have?

The OSK report surprising reports that ..

Maxtral also has an exclusive access to 10,000 hectares of natural forest which will provide the Group with a steady large supply of logs for about 7 years. In addition to the benefit that Maxtral’s logs in the market will be able to fetch a very good price, availability of these in-house logs will also have significant and favourable impacts on the logs and timber products division’s earnings as its log input costs will be lower.

Interesting because surf-fatt-fatt said Maxtral has to source for its logs.

And another interesting issue is that MAxtral was at 28 sen when Osk wrote the report back on 1st Sept 2006.

Maxtral is now .. 0.40/0.405.

Maxtral share price has appreciated quite a bit and the next driver for the stock is how Maxtral perform in its q3, which would be released these few days.

Would it be a blow-out quarter as seen by most other timber stocks?

As it is, Maxtral's ttm profit is at 14.8 million, which equates to an eps of 7 sen (fully diluted eps - assuming full conversion of icul is at 5 sen).

yesterday, tekala, announced its earnings. For a rather lacking timber stock, tekala too had a blowout earnings. q-q earnings improved from 1.645 million to 4.035 million.

So perhaps.. i would have to agree with you that Maxtral earnings has a pretty decent chance to outperform as well.

rgds

The Billionaire Next Door

Missed Warren Buffett interview on CNBC?

Here is the video clip link on MSN. Enjoy!

http://video.msn.com/v/us/v.htm??g=3f17d298-3f27-415e-b9f5-45ae17ce41f4&f=rssmoney&fg=rss&f=15/64rssmoney

US Dollar Getting Whalloped!

In today's market wrap, Michael Hartman talks about Economic Reports and White House Say Economy Will Slow .

• Investors are jamming the exit doors for the U.S. dollar this morning as three economic reports came out with a negative bias, with the only positive report coming from the Energy Department. Stock prices are struggling to move higher from yesterday’s close and bond prices are catching a modest bid to push yields lower with the economic slowdown moving into the spotlight. Most investors, including myself, expected lower volatility today going into the holiday weekend, but this development in the foreign exchange market is quite significant. The dollar is really getting whacked! Yesterday the U.S. dollar index closed at 85.12, but this morning it gapped-down to open at 84.77 and is still getting pounded lower to 84.32, touching a six-month low versus the euro.
  
  The first surprise that seemed to have the biggest impact on the dollar was the increase in unemployment claims from 309,000 to 321,000. Analysts’ consensuses were looking for a number closer to 310,000. To add fuel to the fire, Alcoa announced they would be sending another 13,000 workers to the unemployment lines with a reduction of workforce. The unemployment numbers hit the dollar, but stock futures were not affected much.
  
  Thirty minutes before the bell rang on the floor of the NYSE the University of Michigan released their index of consumer sentiment. Last month the index had a reading of 93.6 and analysts were expecting 93.3 for November, but the number came in lower than expected at 92.1. The slumping consumer confidence numbers aided the dollar decline, but this time around stock futures also moved lower.
  
  The third report adding fuel to the dollar decline came from the Mortgage Bankers Association saying their application index was 3.7% lower last week even though the 30-year fixed rate dropped to 6.13%. This is the lowest rate since January and below the rate from a year ago at 6.26%, but mortgage applications are declining nonetheless.
  
  The only report that would have offered some support for the dollar came from the Energy Department with an unexpected build in crude oil and unleaded gasoline inventories. Analysts expected a build of approximately 500,000 barrels in crude, but the number came in much higher than expected at 5.1 million barrels. Prior to the report, some analysts were expecting energy prices to rise as traders cover their short positions to square-up prior to the long weekend. Just the opposite is actually occurring. As I write, crude is down $1.42 to $58.75. I expect these low prices to last for another month, and then we move higher into the first quarter around the $60 to $65 a barrel range, but no blow-out back to $80 until later next year.

So how weak is the USD.

Have a look...