On money.cnn:
- The young and the riskless
In the wake of the market meltdown of 2008, investors under age 35 are shunning stocks in stunning numbers.
Friday, January 07, 2011
Saying Tak Nak!!
Thursday, January 06, 2011
Wednesday, January 05, 2011
Regarding The Stock Market Again...
Posted this once b4....
ps: love this one bit..
1:22: .. you also enter a bit.. got money, let's make together.
Baltic Dry Index Plunges 4.5%
Blogged on the 23 Dec: The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) Is Not Too Happening
On Bloomberg:
- Freight costs fell as Queensland’s worst flooding for 50 years prompted buyers of the Australian state’s coal to cancel ship charters, intensifying competition for cargoes as the extra vessels become available.
Flooding has covered an area the size of France and Germany, damaging crops and cutting coal stockpiles for export as mines shut. Freight rates as measured by the Baltic Dry Index today slumped 4.5 percent to 1,693 points, taking the decline since Sept. 10 to 43 percent.
“There’s no doubt it’s going to be bearish,” said Stuart Rae, joint managing director of M2M Management Ltd., a London- based hedge-fund group that operates about 65 commodity transporters and trades freight derivatives. “It’s going to exacerbate a market that was already squirming.”
Queensland exports about 180 million metric tons of coal a year, or about a fifth of the global total, according to Sverre Bjorn Svenning, an analyst at Fearnley Consultants A/S in Oslo. The dry-bulk fleet expanded by 17 percent last year, outpacing an 11 percent increase in haulage demand, according to the research unit of Clarkson Plc, the world’s biggest shipbroker.
$18,697 a Day
So-called capesize vessels, the largest tracked by the Baltic Exchange, led declines today as daily rental rates slid 6.6 percent to $18,697. Costs fell 2.7 percent to $14,312 for panamaxes, lost 4.8 percent to $14,860 for supramaxes, and declined 2.9 percent to $11,805 for handysizes.
Total seaborne trade in dry-bulk cargoes, spanning commodities including coal, iron ore and grains, totaled 3.3 billion tons last year, London-based Clarkson estimates.
Queensland coal buyers already invoked force majeure, a legal clause giving them the right to cancel charters, according to Rae. The release of ships from charters will increase competition among owners for cargoes, he said.
Producers of power-station coal in Indonesia and South Africa are unlikely to have time to increase their output, potentially generating alternative vessel demand, because the Queensland disruption probably will be too short, according to Svenning at Fearnley.
“The coming four to six weeks are crucial,” he said. “I don’t think this is positive at all.”
There are 66 dry-bulk commodity carriers now located at Dalrymple Bay and Hay Point, coal-loading facilities about 490 miles north of Brisbane, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.
A capesize ship can haul more than 110,000 deadweight tons, according to Drewry Shipping Consultants Ltd. in London. By that definition, 31 of the vessels at Hay Point and Dalrymple Bay would be capesizes.
Today’s freight-rate assessments were the first published by the Baltic Exchange since Dec. 24. The Baltic Dry Index slid 41 percent last year after almost quadrupling in 2009.
Tuesday, January 04, 2011
Petra Perdana Upgraded To A Trading Buy
I just caught the following article on the Edge: Petra Perdana thrust back into the limelight
- Petra Perdana thrust back into the limelight
Written by Financial Daily
Tuesday, 04 January 2011 11:21
Petra Perdana Bhd
(Jan 3, RM1.10)
Upgrade to trading buy at RM1.06 with target price of RM1.09: Petra Perdana (Petra) has bucked our expectations of a further decline due to poor earnings, rising 40% since its 3Q results. Shares have been rising on talk of mergers and acquisitions as well as the recently dropped lawsuit instituted by former directors. On sentiments, we view that 2011 could be a better year for vessel players, as the many roll-outs of contracts to develop and redevelop offshore Malaysia will give rise to demand for vessels.
Petra reports that its latest total fleet utilisation stands at 55% for the 9MFY10 period. While no major long-term jobs have been inked, its newer vessels are seeing some spot charters, albeit not at attractive rates, hence the continued losses. Dragging down the group’s utilisation is its AHTS fleet, with old vessels largely idle. However, its workboat and work barge fleet is 65% engaged, as they are locked in for jobs. We view that AHTS charters will only have a chance of picking up when major jobs like Tapis or Malikai come into play offshore Malaysia. Otherwise, with major projects still in the planning stages, there will be no hurry to engage vessel fleets just yet. As such, we view that recovery in Petra’s earnings may materialise come mid to late-2011.
Given the company’s current loss-making situation, we view it unreasonable to use price-earnings ratios for valuation. Also, given talk of Petra being a takeover target, it further justifies using its net tangible assets as a valuation basis. As such, we now value Petra at its FY11 prospective NTA of RM1.09 (previous target price of 42 sen based on FY11 non-diluted earningsd per share pegging an 11 times PER).
With our change in valuation methodology, we are raising our call on Petra to a “trading buy”. Our rationale for the call is that there could be a corporate exercise on the cards. We view that while the group’s AHTS may not be an attractive sell at the moment, given slow demand in the market, its work boats and barges could pique the interest of potential suitors in the maintenance business. Further catalyst for a sale is that earnings are still precarious and Petra continues to need cash to meet its operating lease commitments. — ECM Libra Investment Research, Jan 3
This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, January 4, 2011
Err... upgrade to a trading buy at RM1.06 with target price of RM1.09?????
hello? hello? hello?
Here's the nice chart of Petra Perdana after today's trading.
A Quick Look At Malaysia's 2010 Nov Exports
On Business Times:
- Malaysia's total trade back to pre-crisis levels
Published: 2011/01/04
MALAYSIA'S total trade has returned to pre-crisis levels, led by increased demand from regional markets like China.
The International Trade and Industry Ministry said total trade during the period of January to November 2010 has surpassed the RM1 trillion mark with a value of RM1.064 trillion, increasing by 19.4 per cent from the same period in 2009.
Exports in November expanded by 5.3 per cent to RM52.70 billion compared to a year ago while imports grew by 6.1 per cent to RM43.79 billion.
Malaysia had enjoyed trillion ringgit trade for three consecutive years (2006-2008) before the recent crisis.
According to Miti, the increase in exports was largely due to higher exports of palm oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG), refined petroleum products, chemicals and chemical products, manufactures of metal, crude rubber as well as optical and scientific equipment.
Kenanga Investment Bank economist Wan Suhaimie Wan Saidi said November's trade performance was an indication of growth prospects for the first half of the year.
Exports in the fourth quarter of 2010 would be slower than the third quarter, leading to a slower GDP growth.
"At best, real GDP growth for the fourth quarter 2010 would be slightly higher than 4.0 per cent but we have estimated a growth of 3.6 per cent," he said, adding that GDP growth for the whole of 2010 is estimated at 6.8 per cent.
Exports would also face some strong headwinds going forward as it would be subjected to the slower external demand especially from Europe and the US, he added.
"The higher base effect may exacerbate the slower growth trend. However, exports of commodity namely crude oil and gas as well as palm oil and rubber may help to mitigate the slowdown of exports going forward."
Miti said exports to China increased by 14.2 per cent to RM7.19 billion from a year ago, on higher exports of palm oil, crude rubber, refined petroleum products, chemicals and chemical products, LNG and rubber products.
Exports to Japan surged by 17.3 per cent while exports to the European Union (EU) registered an increase of 2.0 per cent due to higher exports of palm oil, crude rubber as well as chemicals and chemical products.
Exports to the US saw a decline of 16.9 per cent from a year ago, mainly due to lower exports of E&E products while exports to Hong Kong also saw a decline of 7.1 per cent from November 2009 due mainly to lower exports of E&E products.
Sounds good eh?
Now compare to this : Pre_External_Trade_NovBI.pdf
Yes... Malaysia’s exports expanded by 5.3% to RM52.70 billion compared with November 2009 but what about that one very important statement underlined?
- Compared with October 2010, exports in November 2010 decreased by 4.1% while imports contracted by 9.2% and total trade declined by 6.5%.
See below.
Is that statement not important to even mention?
This is Star Biz version: Moderate growth in Malaysia’s November exports
- According to the Department of Statistics, November exports expanded 5.3% year-on-year (y-o-y) to RM52.7bil, meeting the general market consensus. But the numbers when compared with the preceding month was a decline of 4.1% due to comparatively lower demand from key developed markets, particularly for electrical and electronic products.
At least Star Biz takes the effort to highlight this point. Why did Business Times not highlight the fact that exports showed a decline when compared with the preceding month? Is that issue not important?
I dunno ... but here's the export data so far.
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