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Mr. Soros: I'm only rich because I know when I'm wrong.

Thursday, July 31, 2008

Peter Lynch Lyrics: Beware the Whisper Stock

The following notes was taken from a forum posting. If not mistaken the original writings were posted at Wallstraits.com.

Lynch Lyrics

Beware the Whisper Stock

"I get calls from people who recommend solid companies for Magellan, and then, usually after they've lowered their voices as if to confide something personal, they add: 'There's this great stock I want to tell you about. It's too small for your fund, but you ought to look at it for your own account. It's a fascinating idea, and it could be a big winner'."

"These are the longshots, also known as whisper stocks, and the whiz-bang stories. They probably reach your neighborhood about the same time they reach mine: the company that sells papaya juice derivative as a cure for slipped-disc pain (Smith Labs); jungle remedies in general; high-tech stuff; monoclonal antibodies extracted from cows (Bioresponse); various miracle additives; and energy breakthroughs that violate the laws of physics. Often the whisper companies are on the brink of solving the latest national problem: the oil shortage, drug addiction, AIDS. The solution is either (a) very imaginative, or (b) impressively complicated."

"My favorite is KMS Industries, which, according to the 1980-82 annual reports, was engaged in 'amorphous silicon photovoltaics', in 1984 was emphasizing the 'video multiplexer' and 'optical pins', by 1985 had settled on 'material processing using chemically driven spherical implosions', and by 1986 was hard at work on the 'inertial confinement fusion program', 'laser-initiated shock compression', and 'visual immunodiagnostic assays'. The stock fell from $40 to $2.50 during this period. Only an eight-for-one reverse split kept it from becoming a penny stock."

"What all the longshots had in common besides the fact that you lost money on them was that the great story had no substance. That's the essence of a whisper stock. The stockpicker is relieved of the burden of checking earnings and so forth because usually there are no earnings. Understanding the p/e ratio is no problem because there is no p/e ratio. But there's no shortage of microscopes, Ph.D.'s high hopes, and cash from the stock sale."

"What I try to remind myself (and obviously I'm not always successful) is that if the prospects are so phenomenal, then this will be a fine investment next year and the year after that. Why not put off buying the stock until later, when the company has established a record? Wait for the earnings. You can get tenbaggers in companies that have already proven themselves. When in doubt, tune in later."

SEC Extending Short Selling On Financial Stocks!!

Yes! This is what they are doing!

  • SEC Extends Short-Selling Rules

    The Securities and Exchange Commission voted to extend the temporary rules it put in place to restrict short-selling of a handful of financial stocks.

    The SEC commissioners didn't take additional steps opposed by Wall Street to expand the number of stocks affected by the rules or make them permanent.

    The temporary rules were set to expire Tuesday, and the SEC extended the order on the 19 stocks until Aug. 12. It won't be extended beyond then.

    .......

    So far, the rules have had mixed results. Shares of the 19 financial firms targeted by the SEC soared after the rules were announced, but some, such as Merrill Lynch & Co., Fannie Mae and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., have fallen again, approaching their previous lows. That undercuts the arguments that short-sellers drove the decline of the shares. SEC economists are studying the effects of the emergency action on those stocks.

    SEC chairman Christopher Cox said he looks forward to the analysis and said he believes the emergency order "helped to control illegitimate rumor-mongering and other techniques of market manipulation."

Totally incredible!

By placing restriction on short selling on these shares, isn't this a form of manipulation too?

Where is the free market?

Regarding The Plunge Of Axis!!

Posted on Mootaktrade: The Plunge Of Axis

The plunge was incredible.



This stock was trading around 2.00 on 11th July 2008.

It closed yesterday at 0.35!

And what's most worrying is the following announcement on Bursa website. AXIS INCORPORATION BERHAD (“Axis” or the “Company”) - Submission of the Audited Financial Statements for the financial year ended 31 March 2008 (hereinafter referred to as “AFS”)

  • The Board of Directors of Axis (“Board”) wishes to announce that at the Board of Directors’ meeting held on 30 July 2008 at 6.40 p.m., the Board has unanimously resolved that the Company would not be able to submit its AFS by the deadline on 31 July 2008 as a result of material unresolved issues raised by our external auditors, Messrs Horwath during the Audit Committee meeting held at 3.35 p.m. on 30 July 2008. The Management of Axis requires time to resolve these issues.

    The Audit Committee has proposed and the Board has approved the need to appoint an independent firm of auditors to carry out a special audit immediately to address these issues.

    The Company will make necessary announcements upon the outcome of the special audit.

    This announcement is dated 30 July 2008.

Accounting problems??????

And what's even more worrying was their answer to Bursa regarding the plunge of the stock. AXIS INCORPORATION BERHAD (“the Company”) - Unusual Market Activity

  • We refer to Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad (“Bursa Securities”) letter dated 30 July 2008 in relation to the unusual market activity of the Company’s shares.

    Pursuant to Paragraph 9.11 of the Listing Requirements of Bursa Securities, the Board of Directors of the Company wishes to announce that to the best of their knowledge,
    they are not aware of any of the following that may have contributed to the unusual market activity:

    1) Any material corporate development relating to the Group’s business and affairs not previously announced;

    2) Any rumours or report concerning the business and affairs of the Group; and

    2) Any other reasons to account for the unusual market activity.

    The Company will make the necessary announcement to Bursa Securities of any material information should it falls under the Listing Requirements of Bursa Securities in particular Paragraph 9.03 on disclosure of material information.

    This announcement is dated 30 July 2008.

How can they be not aware????????

Here is the link to their most recent quarterly earnings report: Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 31/3/2008

Check out the rather godzilla sized trade receivables!

Incredible!

Part II: The Story Of Garmet Player Wanting To Be Oil And Gas Player

Blogged recently: Garment Maker Wants to Turn Into An Oil & Gas Player?

Yes, this is the story of Baneng Holdings. Baneng Holdings, the garment maker wanting to transform itself to an oil and gas player!

Now due to this incredible tale, the stock soared. The chart below on the date of the blog was posted show how everyone on the Baneng tale flew up, up and away.


The stock closed yesterday at 0.70.

Which was an incredible performance for a stock. It even outperformed the KLCI and many other stocks.

This morning, Business Times carried another article on it, Baneng moves into oil sector with Atmos buy

I was shocked to see that headlines. I had stated the terribly weak balance sheet for Baneng Holdings on my earlier blog posting. Garment Maker Wants to Turn Into An Oil & Gas Player?

  • See their cash balance of only 4.914 million? And long term borrowings totals 36.486 million and short term borrowings is at a whopping 98.944 million!

So I thought they finally pulled something amazing off when I saw the headlines. Perhaps they are getting a massive loan or perhaps it's something where an oil and gas player pumps their business into Baneng, yeah a reverse listing of some sort.

So I was much eager to read it's fairy tale.

  • GARMENT maker Baneng Holdings Bhd has bought an engineering and fabrication company for RM800,000 to diversify into the oil and gas sector.

Huh? Only rm800,000 for this company? I thought it was a massive purchase? So where's the justification for the stock's huge run up then?

  • Executive director Albert Lim Meng Hong said Atmos Engineering Sdn Bhd, the firm that it is buying, has secured jobs worth a combined RM20 million from various oil majors, which will bolster Baneng's earnings. Atmos is also bidding for contracts that are worth up to RM200 million in total, he said.

Wahh! They bought a company for rm800,000? But the company got rm20 million of job order???? Wow? Am I reading it correctly?

Why is Atmos Engineering selling their company so cheap? Why?

The last sentence... bidding for contracts? Ahem. Bidding for contracts just means bidding for contracts, yes? There isn't much value till the contracts are won and after winning, the jobs from the contracts need to be translated to earnings!

  • With a paid-up of RM500,000, Lim said, Atmos has had limited resources and needed to tap onto Baneng's access to the capital market as a public-listed company to raise funds for its projects.

Huh? Huh? Ok, so Atmos has limited resources but yet it can secure jobs worth rm20 million! WOW! Incredible story or what!

  • He did not elaborate on Baneng's plan to raise money, but said that it is talking to bankers.

And this is so incredible. Obviously Baneng would need to raise money big time too!

  • "Atmos will contribute to our earnings from next year. We are still negotiating and there will be more acquisitions to come," he told reporters after signing with Atmos in Kuala Lumpur yesterday.

    Baneng will still retain its core business of manufacturing, knitting and dyeing of fabrics and other apparels, he said.

    "We will position ourselves in garment manufacturing and oil and gas for now, but will still look for any other businesses that can bring in more income," he added.

    Baneng has been on the lookout for strategic purchases in the last three years, he added.

    Shares of Baneng have risen 59.1 per cent this year, a stark contrast to the 19.7 per cent fall in the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index over the same period.

    The usually thinly-traded stock has also seen some active transactions recently.

    Baneng closed 1.4 per cent lower at 70 sen yesterday.

LOL!

Loved the second last line. "The usually thinly-traded stock has also seen some active transactions recently. " So let me attempt to interpret that sentence. This stock used to be thinly-traded (tak-laku or pak-woo-ying?) but lately the stock is moving up and the trading is rather active lately. Hmm.. is it because of this wonderful tale? I wonder.

Wednesday, July 30, 2008

Update On EcoFirst

Blogged last year: EcoFirst (Kumpulan Emas) and Update on EcoFirst.

Ecofirst announced its earnings tonight. It wasn't nice at all. It lost some 24 million for the current quarter. Total fiscal year loss totals more than 35 million!


And the balance sheet was extremely weak!


Peter Lynch Lyrics: Earnings, Earnings, Earnings!

The following notes was taken from a forum posting. If not mistaken the original writings were posted at Wallstraits.com.


Lynch Lyrics

Earnings, Earnings, Earnings!


"What you're asking here is what makes a company valuable, and why it will be more valuable tomorrow than it is today. There are many theories, but to me, it always comes down to earnings and assets. Especially earnings. Sometimes it takes years for the stock price to catch up to a company's value, and the down periods last so long that investors begin to doubt that will ever happen. But value always wins out-- or at least in enough cases that it's worthwhile to believe it."

"Analyzing a company's stock on the basis of earnings and assets is no different from analyzing a local laundromat, drugstore, or apartment building that you might want to buy. Although it's easy to forget sometimes, a share of stock is not a lottery ticket. It's part ownership of a business. Here's another way of thinking about earnings and assets. If you were a stock, your earnings and assets would determine how much an investor would be willing to pay for a percentage of your action. Evaluating yourself as you might evaluate General Motors is an instructive exercise, and it helps you get the hang of this phase of the investigation."

"Like the earnings line, the p/e ratio is often a useful measure of whether any stock is overpriced, fairly priced, or underpriced relative to a company's money-making potential. The p/e ratio can be thought of as the number of years it will take the company to earn back the amount of your initial investment-- assuming, of course, that the company's earnings stay constant. If you but shares in a company selling at two times earnings (a p/e of 2), you will earn back your initial investment in two years, but in a company selling at 40 times earnings (a p/e of 40) it would take forty years to accomplish the same thing."

"Some bargain hunters believe in buying any and all stocks with low p/e's, but that strategy makes no sense to me. We shouldn't compare apples to oranges. What's a bargain p/e for Dow Chemical isn't necessarily the same as a bargain p/e for Wal-Mart. If you remember nothing else about p/e ratios, remember to avoid stocks with excessively high ones. You'll save yourself a lot of grief and a lot of money if you do. With few exceptions, an extremely high p/e ratio is a handicap to a stock, in the same way that extra weight in the saddle is a handicap to a racehorse."

"There are five basic ways a company can increase earnings: reduce costs; raise prices; expand into new markets; sell more of its product in the old markets; or revitalize, close or otherwise dispose of a losing operation. These are the factors to investigate as you develop the story. If you have an edge, this is where it's going to be most helpful."

Ranhill Privatisation Rumours: What's Up With The Owner Disposing?

Blogged the other day: Ranhill: Our Financial News Being Used To Drive The Stock Higher! and Ranhill Answers: Our Financial News Being Used To Drive The Stock Higher!

Let's recall what has happened so far.

Last week, an incredible story was published on the Business Times suggesting that Ranhill could be taken private by the owners. It was all based on unnamed sources.

I found it hard to believe. Why would the owners be interested in this deal worth some 420 million? Why would they want to take it private when Ranhill is in a nett debt of 2.569 Billion? It simply did not sound rational at all.

And worse still, the article came out with a bunch of unnamed analysts suggesting a 'sum of private parts' valuation technique. I was amazed by such creativity!

And when questioned by Bursa, I posted Ranhill's reply on the second posting, Ranhill Answers: Our Financial News Being Used To Drive The Stock Higher!. All the management could answer to the Bursa query was the following.

  • we are constantly exploring opportunities in seeking for any proposals that may contribute to our objectives to enhance and boost our shareholders’ value

It was truly vague.

And less us not forget that the stock soared some 47.9% during these 2 trading days!

And yesterday there was another shocking development.

The owner announced a massive disposal of shares! ( See Changes in Director's Interest (S135) - Hamdan Mohamad )
  • Disposed 23/07/2008 29,000,000

Yes, Tan Sri Hamdan Mohamad had disposed some 29 million shares on the 23rd July, a couple of days before that article was published.

So why would Tan Sri Hamdan Mohamad want to take Ranhill Bhd private when he was disposing/reducing his shares?

This wouldn't make sense yes?

And since he was disposing/reducing his shares, why didn't Ranhill Bhd management deny that privatisation rumour? Why?

Peter Lynch Lyrics: Don't invest if you don't understand the story

The following notes was from a forum posting. If not mistaken it was from Wallstraits.com.


Lynch Lyrics

Don't invest if you don't understand the story


"Getting the story on a company is a lot easier if you understand the basic business. That's why I'd rather invest in panty hose than in communications satellites, or in motel chains than in fiber optics. The simpler it is, the better I like it. When somebody says, "Any idiot could run this joint," that's a plus as far as I'm concerned, because sooner or later any idiot probably is going to be running it."

"If it's a choice between owning stock in a fine company with excellent management in a highly competitive and complex industry, or a humdrum company with mediocre management in a simpleminded industry with no competition, I'd take the latter. For one thing, it's easier to follow. During a lifetime of eating donuts or buying tires, I've developed a feel for the product line that I'll never have with laser beams or microprocessors."

"'Any idiot can run this business' is one characteristic of the perfect company, the kind of stock I dream about. You never find the perfect company, but if you can imagine it, then you'll know how to recognize favorable attributes, the most important thirteen of which are as follows:

  • 1. It sounds dull--or, even better, ridiculous
  • 2. It does something dull
  • 3. It does something disagreeable
  • 4. It's a spinoff
  • 5. The institutions don't own it, and the analysts don't follow it
  • 6. The rumors abound: it's involved with toxic waste and/or the Mafia
  • 7. There's something depressing about it
  • 8. It's a no-growth industry
  • 9. It's got a niche
  • 10. People have to keep buying it
  • 11. It's a user of technology
  • 12. The insiders are buyers
  • 13. The company is buying back shares

Tuesday, July 29, 2008

Bina Puri: Sources Were Spot On!

Amazing!

Truly amazing.

The sources speculation on the news that Bina Puri will win a contract from MRCB were spot on!
Bina Puri - The Sources Strikes Yet Again!

Bina Puri just made the following announcement.

  • Bina Puri Construction Sdn. Bhd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of Bina Puri Holdings Bhd. has received a letter of award from MRCB Engineering Sdn. Bhd. to undertake the subcontract works for the proposed Eastern Dispersal Link (EDL) Johor Bahru, Johor - design, construct and complete main line bridge, Ramp A, Ramp B, Ramp C and Ramp D at a contract sum of RM293 million. The project is expected to be completed within thirty-three months. With this new award, the current book order of the Group stands at about RM2.0 billion, which will sustain the Group until 2011.

    Please note that no directors, substantial shareholders and/or persons connected with them have any interests, direct or indirect, in the above transaction.

Well...

Since the sources were spot on, isn't this INSIDER info?

Why and how were the insider info leaked to the press?

Surely this is not legal, is it?

Did anyone profit from this news leakage directly?

How?

Bina Puri - The Sources Strikes Yet Again!

Published on the Edge. 29-07-2008: Bina Puri close to landing RM290m EDL job


  • 29-07-2008: Bina Puri close to landing RM290m EDL job
    By Jose Barrock

    KUALA LUMPUR: Bina Puri Holdings Bhd is said to be close to bagging a RM290 million highway construction contract from Malaysian Resources Corp Bhd (MRCB), sources say.

    The contract is understood to be a portion of the Eastern Dispersal Link (EDL), the RM980 million highway which will connect the tail-end of the North-South Expressway at Pandan to the Customs, Immigration and Quarantine complex in Tanjung Puteri, Johor Bharu.

    Last June, the federal government awarded MRCB a 34-year concession for the design, construction, operation and management, and maintenance of the EDL, which is slated to be a three-lane dual-carriageway, 8.1km road with about 4.4 km elevated.

    It is learnt that MRCB would be giving out the letter of award to Bina Puri in the next few days, with an announcement to be made to Bursa Malaysia shortly after.... ( click here for rest of the article )

Oh my gosh!

The sources strikes yet again!

Last year, on June 23rd, I blogged the following, Regarding Bina Puri Article on Star Bizweek (Last year article was truly appalling since the reporter made several misleading statements in that article on Star Bizweek. Total debts were mis-stated making the company appear much healthier financially! - do read that blog posting!)

It's that same reporter.

Apparently now he's writing on the Edge.

Same again to sources yet again!

Sigh!

Just look at the quality of our financial press. It's simply depressing and more so, the same so-called reporter gets away by publishing articles after articles after articles based on unnamed sources!

One day... perhaps our financial press should be named the UNNAMED SOURCES NEWS!

Sigh!

Let me say again.. if there is any credibility in the sources of this news, then why is the source afraid to be named?? Why??

My Favourite Peter Lynch Articles

My favourite article written by Peter Lynch was Use Your Edge.


  • Use Your Edge

    By Peter Lynch

    What's the best way to invest $1million?

    Tip one: Don't buy stocks on tips alone.

    If your only reason for picking a stock is that an expert likes it, then what you really need is paid professional help. Mutual funds are a great idea (I ran one once) for folks who want this sort of assistance at a reasonable price. Still, I'm not convinced that having 4,000 equity funds in this country is an entirely positive development. True, most of the cash flooding into these funds comes from retirement and pension contributions, where people can't pick their own stocks. But some of it also has to be pouring in from former stock pickers who failed to invest wisely on their own account and have given up trying.

    One of the oldest sayings on Wall Street is "Let your winners run, and cut your losers."

    When people find a profitable activity -- collecting stamps or rugs, buying old houses and fixing them up -- they tend to keep doing it. Had more individuals succeeded at individual investing, my guess is they'd still be doing it. We wouldn't see so many converts to managed investment care, especially not in the greatest bull market in U.S. history. Halley's comet may return times before we get another market like this. If I'm right, then large numbers of investors must have lost money outright or badly trailed a market that's up eightfold since 1982. How did so many do so poorly? Maybe they traded a new stock every week. Maybe they bought stocks in companies they knew little about, companies with shaky prospects and bad balance sheets. Maybe they didn't follow these companies closely enough to get out when the news got worse. Maybe they stuck with their losers through thin and thinner, without checking the story. Maybe they bought stock options. Whatever the case, they failed at navigating their own course.

    Amateurs can beat the Streat because, well, they're amateurs.

    At the risk of repeating myself, I'm convinced that this type of failure is unnecessary -- that amateurs can not only succeed on their own but beat the Street by (a) taking advantage of the fact that they are amateurs and (b) taking advantage of their personal edge. Almost everyone has an edge. It's just a matter of identifying it.

    While a fund manager is more or less forced into owning a long list of stocks, an individual has the luxury of owning just a few. That means you can afford to be choosy and invest only in outfits that you understand and that have a superior product or franchise with clear opportunities for expansion. You can wait until the company repeats its successful formula in several places or markets (same-store sales on the rise, earnings on the rise) before you buy the first share.

    If you put together a portfolio of five to ten of these high achievers, there's a decent chance one of them will turn out to be a 10-, a 20-, or even a 50-bagger, where you can make 10, 20, or 50 times your investment. With your stake divided among a handful of issues, all it takes is a couple of gains of this magnitude in a lifetime to produce superior returns.

    One of the oldest sayings on Wall Street is "Let your winners run, and cut your losers." It's easy to make a mistake and do the opposite, pulling out the flowers and watering the weeds. Warren Buffett quoted me on this point in one of his famous annual reports (as thrilling to me as getting invited to the White House). If you're lucky enough to have one golden egg in your portfolio, it may not matter if you have a couple of rotten ones in there with it. Let's say you have a portfolio of six stocks. Two of them are average, two of them are below average, and one is a real loser. But you also have one stellar performer. Your [Image]Coca-Cola, your [Image]Gillette. A stock that reminds you why you invested in the first place. In other words, you don't have to be right all the time to do well in stocks. If you find one great growth company and own it long enough to let the profits run, the gains should more than offset mediocre results from other stocks in your portfolio.

    Look around you for good stocks. Down the road, you won't regret it.

    A lot of people mistakenly think they must search far and wide to find a company with this sort of potential. In fact, many such companies are hard to ignore. They show up down the block or inside the house. They stare us in the face.

    This is where it helps to have identified your personal investor's edge. What is it that you know a lot about? Maybe your edge comes from your profession or a hobby. Maybe it comes just from being a parent. An entire generation of Americans grew up on [Image]Gerber's baby food, and Gerber's stock was a 100-bagger. If you put your money where your baby's mouth was, you turned $10,000 into $1 million. Fifty-baggers like [Image]Home Depot, [Image]Wal-Mart, and Dunkin' Donuts were obvious success stories to large crowds of do-it-yourselfers, shoppers, and policemen. Mention any of these at a party, though, and you're likely to get the predictable reaction: "Chances like that don't come along anymore."

    Ah, but they do. Take Microsoft -- I wish I had.

    You didn't need a Ph.D. to figure out that Microsoft was going to be powerful.

    I avoided buying technology stocks if I didn't understand the technology, but I've begun to rethink that rule. You didn't need a Ph.D. in programming to recognize the way computers were becoming a bigger and bigger part of our lives, or to figure out that Microsoft owned the rights to MS-DOS, the operating system used in a vast majority of the world's PCs.

    It's hard to believe the almighty Microsoft has been a public company for only 11 years. If you bought it during the initial public offering, at 78 cents a share (adjusted for splits), you've made 100 times your money. But Apple was the dominant company at the time, so maybe you waited until 1988, when Microsoft had had a chance to prove itself.

    By then, you would have realized that [Image]IBM and all its clones were using Microsoft's operating system, MS-DOS. IBM and the clones could fight it out for market share, but Microsoft would prosper regardless of who won. This is the old combat theory of investing: When there's a war going on, don't buy the companies that are doing the fighting; buy the companies that sell the bullets. In this case, Microsoft was selling the bullets. The stock has risen 25-fold since 1988.

    The next time Microsoft might have got your attention was 1992, when Windows 3.1 made its debut. Three million copies were sold in six weeks. If you bought the stock on the strength of that product, you've quadrupled your money to date. Then, at the end of 1995, Windows 95 was released, with more than 7 million copies sold in three months and 40 million copies as of this writing. If you bought the stock on the Windows 95 debut, you've doubled your money.

    If you missed the boat on Microsoft, there are still other technology stocks you can buy into.

    Many parents with children in college or high school (I'm one of them) have had to step around the wiring crews as they installed the newfangled campuswide computer networks. Much of this work is being done by Cisco Systems, a company that recently wired two campuses my daughters have attended. Cisco is another opportunity a lot of people had a chance to notice. Its earnings have been growing at a rapid rate, and the stock is a 100-bagger already. No matter who ends up winning the battle of the Internet, Cisco is selling its bullets to various combatants.

    Computer buyers who can't tell a microchip from a potato chip still could have spotted the intel inside label on every machine being carried out of the computer stores. Not surprisingly, [Image]Intel has been a 25-bagger to date: The company makes the dominant product in the industry.

    Early on, it was obvious Intel had a huge lead on its competitors. The Pentium scare of 1994 gave you a chance to pick up a bargain. If you bought at the low in 1994, you've more than quintupled your investment, and if you bought at the high, you've more than quadrupled it.

    Physicians, nurses, candy stripers, patients with heart problems -- a huge potential audience could have noticed the brisk business done by medical-device manufacturers Medtronics, a 20-bagger, and Saint Jude Medical, a 30-bagger.

    There are ways you can keep yourself from gaining on the good growth companies.

    There are two ways investors can fake themselves out of the big returns that come from great growth companies.

    The first is waiting to buy the stock when it looks cheap. Throughout its 27-year rise from a split-adjusted 1.6 cents to $23, Wal-Mart never looked cheap compared with the overall market. Its price-to-earnings ratio rarely dropped below 20, but Wal-Mart's earnings were growing at 25 to 30 percent a year. A key point to remember is that a p/e of 20 is not too much to pay for a company that's growing at 25 percent. Any business that can manage to keep up a 20 to 25 percent growth rate for 20 years will reward shareholders with a massive return even if the stock market overall is lower after 20 years.

    The second mistake is underestimating how long a great growth company can keep up the pace. In the 1970s I got interested in [Image]McDonald's. A chorus of colleagues said golden arches were everywhere and McDonald's had seen its best days. I checked for myself and found that even in California, where McDonald's originated, there were fewer McDonald's outlets than there were branches of the Bank of America. McDonald's has been a 50-bagger since.

    These "nowhere to grow" stories come up quite often and should be viewed skeptically. Don't believe them until you check for yourself. Look carefully at where the company does business and at how much growing room is left. I can't predict the future of Cisco Systems, but it doesn't suffer from a lack of potential customers: Only 10 to 20 percent of the schools have been wired into networks, and don't forget about office buildings, hospitals, and government agencies nationwide. [Image]Petsmart is hardly at the end of its rope -- its 320 stores are in only 34 states.

    Whether or not a company has growing room may have nothing to do with its age. A good example is [Image]Consolidated Products, the parent of the Steak & Shake chain that's been flipping burgers since 1934. Steak & Shake has 210 outlets in only 12 states; 78 of the outlets are in St. Louis and Indianapolis. Obviously, the company has a lot of expansion ahead of it. With 160 continuous quarters of increased earnings over 40 years, Consolidated has been a steady grower and a terrific investment, even in a lousy market for fast food in general.

    Sometimes depressed industries can produce high returns.

    The best companies often thrive even as their competitors struggle to survive. Until recently, the airline sector has been a terrible place to put money, but if you had invested $1,000 in [Image]Southwest Airlines in 1973, you would have had $460,000 after 20 years. Big Steel has disappointed investors for years, but [Image]Nucor has generated terrific returns. [Image]Circuit City has done well as other electronics retailers have suffered. While the Baby Bells have toddled, a new competitor, [Image]WorldCom, has been a 20-bagger in seven years.

    Depressed industries, such as broadcasting and cable television, telecommunications, retail, and restaurants, are likely places to start a research list of potential bargains. If business improves from lousy to mediocre, investors are often rewarded, and they're rewarded again when mediocre turns to good and good turns to excellent. Oil drillers are in the middle of such a recovery, with some stocks delivering tenfold returns in the past 18 months. Yet it took a decade of lousy before they even got to mediocre. Readers of my column in Worth learned of the potential in this long-suffering sector in February 1995.

    Retail and restaurants haven't been performing well -- but they're two of Lynch's favorite areas.

    Retail and restaurants are two of the worst-performing industries in recent memory, and both are among my favorite research areas. I've taken a beating in a number of retail stocks (some of which I still like and have continued to buy), but the general decline hasn't stopped Staples, [Image]Borders, Petsmart, [Image]Finish Line, and [Image]Pier 1 Imports from rewarding shareholders. Two of my daughters and my wife, Carolyn, have continued to shop at Pier 1, reminding me of its popularity. The stock has doubled in the past 18 months.

    A glut in casual-dining outlets didn't hurt [Image]Outback Steakhouse, and a surplus of pizza parlors didn't bother [Image]Papa John's, whose stock was a double last year. [Image]CKE Restaurants -- whose operations include the Carl's Jr. restaurants -- has been a profitable turnaround play in California.

    You can even find bargain stocks in this market that have been overlooked.

    So far, we've been talking about growth companies on the move, but even in this so-called extravagant market, there are plenty of bargains among the laggards. Of the nearly 4,000 IPOs in the past five years, several hundred have missed the rally on Wall Street. From the class of 1995, 37 percent, or 202 companies, are selling below their IPO price. From the class of 1996, 33 percent, or 285, now trade below their offering price. So much for the average investor's never having a chance to profit from an offering. In more than half the cases, you can wait a few months and buy these stocks cheaper than the institutions that were cut in on the original deals.

    As the Dow has hit new records week after week, many small companies have been ignored. In 1995 and 1996, the Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index was up 69 percent, but the Russell 2000 index of smaller issues was up only 44 percent. And while the Nasdaq market rose 25 percent in 1996, a lot of this gain can be attributed to just three stocks: Intel, Microsoft, and Oracle. Half the stocks on the Nasdaq were up less than 6.9 percent during 1996.

    That's not to say owning these laggards will protect you if the bottom drops out of the market. If that happens, the stocks that didn't go up will go down just as hard and fast as the stocks that did. I learned that lesson in the 1971Ð73 bear market. Before the selling was over, companies that looked cheap by any measure got much cheaper. McDonald's dropped from $15 a share to $4. I thought Kaiser Industries was a steal at $13, but it also fell to $4. At that point, this asset-rich conglomerate, with holdings in aluminum, steel, real estate, cement, fiberglass, and broadcasting, was trading at a market value equal to the price of four airplanes.

    Wondering when you should exit the market? Use Lynch's rule of thumb.

    Should we all exit the market to avoid the correction? Some people did that when the Dow hit 3000, 4000, 5000, and 6000. A confirmed stock picker sticks with stocks until he or she can't find a single issue worth buying. The only time I took a big position in bonds was in 1982, when inflation was running at double digits and long-term U.S. Treasurys were yielding 13 to 14 percent. I didn't buy bonds for defensive purposes. I bought them because 13 to 14 percent was a better return than the 10 to 11 percent stocks have returned historically. I have since followed this rule: When yields on long-term government bonds exceed the dividend yield on the S&P 500 by 6 percent or more, sell stocks and buy bonds. As I write this, the yield on the S&P is about 2 percent and long-term government bonds pay 6.8 percent, so we're only 1.2 percent away from the danger zone. Stay tuned.

    So, what advice would I give to someone with $1 million to invest? The same I'd give to any investor: Find your edge and put it to work by adhering to the following rules:

    With every stock you own, keep track of its story in a logbook. Note any new developments and pay close attention to earnings. Is this a growth play, a cyclical play, or a value play? Stocks do well for a reason and do poorly for a reason. Make sure you know the reasons.

    Stocks do well for a reason, and poorly for a reason.

    *Pay attention to facts, not forecasts.

    *Ask yourself: What will I make if I'm right, and what could I lose if I'm wrong? Look for a risk-reward ratio of three to one or better.

    *Before you invest, check the balance sheet to see if the company is financially sound.

    *Don't buy options, and don't invest on margin. With options, time works against you, and if you're on margin, a drop in the market can wipe you out.

    *When several insiders are buying the company's stock at the same time, it's a positive.

    *Average investors should be able to monitor five to ten companies at a time, but nobody is forcing you to own any of them. If you like seven, buy seven. If you like three, buy three. If you like zero, buy zero.

    *Be patient. The stocks that have been most rewarding to me have made their greatest gains in the third or fourth year I owned them. A few took ten years.

    *Enter early -- but not too early. I often think of investing in growth companies in terms of baseball. Try to join the game in the third inning, because a company has proved itself by then. If you buy before the lineup is announced, you're taking an unnecessary risk. There's plenty of time (10 to 15 years in some cases) between the third and the seventh innings, which is where the 10- to 50-baggers are made. If you buy in the late innings, you may be too late.

    *Don't buy "cheap" stocks just because they're cheap. Buy them because the fundamentals are improving.

    *Buy small companies after they've had a chance to prove they can make a profit.

    *Long shots usually backfire or become "no shots."

    *If you buy a stock for the dividend, make sure the company can comfortably afford to pay the dividend out of its earnings, even in an economic slump.

    *Investigate ten companies and you're likely to find one with bright prospects that aren't reflected in the price. Investigate 50 and you're likely to find 5.

And my favourite interview on Peter Lynch was the one posted on pbs website: http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/betting/pros/lynch.html

It's a rather long interview which I fully recommend!

Flashback: Integrax: My Earnings Has Shrunk!

The following posting was initially posted way back on May 2006. I am reproducing it here again.

I was told that this stock was recommended by a fund when it was trading around 1.38 back in Aug 2003.

Did they NOT know about the MASSIVE dilution impact from the conversion of the ICPs? They should have known, yes?

As of today, this stock still carries a HOLD recommendation.

It's now July 2008.

Stock trades at around 0.79.

Buy and Hold Forever?

Well? You tell me.

--------------------------


The following post is dedicated to Anon who asked about the dilutions effects caused by placement shares, esos etc.


One of the best example I could really think of is a past discussion I had on this one stock called Integrax.

On 28th feb 2003, Integrax announced its fy2002 Q4
quarterly earnings.

It made a total net earnings of 16.159 million from a sales revenue of 25.244 million for its fiscal year.

I got a message in July 2003 asking about this stock:

==>

I have made some studies on this counter and noted some good points:

  1. stable assure income from TNB power plant (future earning will double)
  2. closely link to state goverment
  3. potential aluminiam plant project (will add on the coal transportbusiness)
  4. low PE (really fantastically low)
  5. proposed to transfer to main board.
here was my reply then.

<<==>>

my comment on integrax ...

1. those listed port stocks, their fundamentals are ok, meaning they are companies that operates on a very high profit margins. in which you have also choices like Bintulu Port. So far, from its only earnings (Integrax was a newly listed stock, which was listed via a reverse takeover of a stock called Ganz) , in its
02 Q4 earnings report, Integrax had figures like this...



2. now as you would see the numbers were fantastic. (the eps is based upon 115.656 million shares, which was stated in that quarterly earnings report). And if you annualised such performance for fy 2003, then the potential is there.. cos one is looking at a potential eps of 38-40 sen for fy 2003. And yes, I did note that folks like Ah Goh (GK Goh) was projecting 03 earnings to be lower, at around 30 million, or an eps of 26 sen based on 115.656 million shares.

( Back then Integrax trading around 1.15-1.30 and based on the projected 03 earnings, Integrax at 1.15 was trading at a super duper low PE of 4.4x based on Ah Goh's estimates.. and at such a low PE multiple, surely this would have been an ideal hidden gem right? In fact, Surf 88 back then, had a super positive research calling it a Lumut Gem!)

3. But after researching more, i found out that there were lots of ICP shares being converted into ordinary shares. This was part of the agreement under Integrax's takeover of Ganz. Now I do NOT know know the exact restriction (if any) on how these ICPs were converted but judging from KLSE announcements, they were converted on quite a regular basis. So what's important is, if you wanna invest in this stock, you need to figure out how many total ICP's were issued.
(here is where the DILUTION of shares has such an impact on the share price.)

Now these ICPs, they have this dilution effect. As I had checked out the other day (back in July 2003), the number of shares in Integrax stands at 196,762 million shares!!

Now based on the projected earnings of 30 million, Integrax projected DILUTED eps is now 15 sen. Which now means, at 1.15 Integrax is trading at a forward PE of 7.6! (compared to a pe between 4.4).

See how greatly the eps has been diluted by these ICP's?

So... if you are not carefull.... you might have actually invested in Integrax had a much higher PE multiple than you have imagined...


4. Is Integrax an average company or an excellent company? I dunno.

Too early for me to determine, plus there is really too limited info i can dig up on Integrax itself.... so i cannot comment on it.

<<==>>

That was in July 2003. Now Integrax was in a nice rally mood.

And soon in Oct 2003, it was trading around 1.90++ (which turned out to be its peak today)


And here is another extremely interesting point.

Integrax Loan Stocks and its Irredeemable Convertible Preference (ICP) shares were still constantly being converted into ordinary shares. (here is one announcement indicating
the conversion of ICP shares )

Which meant that the earnings per share were constantly being diluted at a very rapid pace.

But the share price was rocketing.

How?

Would an investor cash out back in Oct 2003? (remember, they had an opportunity to buy just in July 2003 at around 1.15)

A year later, on 27th Feb 2004, Integrax announced its fy 2003 quarterly earnings.

It made a total net earnings of 28.819 million from a sales revenue of 93.434 million for its fiscal year.

Integrax's results is pretty impressive really. And in fact it does look like a decent and very profitable company... but i guess the main question is why the share price is performing so poorly was explained clearly by the company.

  • PATMI changes are reflective of the above while EPS changes reflect the impact of a larger share capital base this quarter.

Ahh... the EPS shrunk!!

Diluted!

The dilution effects from the conversion of Integrax's ICP shares and loan stocks. And the more conversion are made, the large the share base becomes, hence Integrax share base is growing each quarter, which meant that unless Integrax earnings grow at a much faster than how its share base expands, the eps would become smaller each quarter and when the E in PE becomes smaller, the price 'usually' goes down to reflect the lower E.

To fully illustrate how diluted the earnings become:

Integrax number of shares now is 263.882 million shares!! (back in Feb 2004)

Which meant Integrax eps is only 10.9 sen for its fy 2003! (a huge cry from Ah Goh's estimate of 26 sen eps!.. and most important see how the net profit increased a lot BUT yet the EPS 'dropped drastically?)

Which meant that the traded shares of Integrax is now much more expensive despite a pretty impressive fiscal year earnings? (In Feb 2004, at 1.50, Integrax was trading at a PE of 13.7x!!)

Perhaps it is better to take note of all those ICP shares, right?

Example
(done on 28th Feb 2004)

Integra has 263.882 million shares
Integra LA has 31.890 million shares
Integra PA has 10.570 million shares.
Full dilution = 263.882 + 31.890 + 10.570 = 306.342 million shares.
Fully diluted eps = 28.819 / 306.342 =
9.4 sen.

So do remember.. this bugger just got soooooo many shares out there.... that you dun really know what is going.... plus since this is a RTO listed company.... so you never know the true cost of those ICP shares, etc, etc..... and do take one step back ... dig deeper back into history.... look at Ganz last reported earnings report. Ganz had only got 19.8 million shares. Compare it to now. 263.882 million shares. A lot of new shares has been issued.

<<==>>

So in July 2003.. Integrax was trading around 1.15-1.30.

It peaked in Oct 2003 around 1.90++

On Feb 2004 it traded in the 1.50 region.

now on May 2006? Less than 0.70!

The below pix says it all...
(long term buy and hold? if your initial reasoning is wrong.. holding it longer is holding in hope!)



So if one purchases a share in a company and discounts the effect of the dilution of earnings, see the drastic end result?

Of course not all companies are like that. And as mentioned in the case of IOI, the conversion of warrants did not have a negative impact on the share price. Why? IOI Corps earnings grew at a much faster pace.

It's pretty simple actually.. take the blog posting
ROI on Uchi: Part III - the ESOS issue

<<==>>

Now if you add both figures up, you will get 82,820,992 new shares, assuming full exercise of ESOS.

Currently Uchi has 372,392,800 shares. Which means there is a possible dilution in earnings per share of 22% assuming full exercise of all these ESOS.

Now let's be realistic and ask ourselves this... is 22% dilution in earnings per share a lot or not?

Simple way to look at this dilution.

Say U** has a current eps of 100 sen.
Say U** has a possibility to trade at a price earnings multiple of 18x.

Which means U** could be worth some 18.00 in market price.

Now a 22% dilution means... the eps would be 78 sen.
And using the same pe multiple assumption of 18x, U** should be trading at a market price of 14.00.

See how disadvantage it is to the minority shareholder?

<<==>>


Flonic Expects To Return To The Positive!

On the Business Times today, the article on Flonic Hi-Tec caught my attention, Flonic expects to be back in the black

Flonic was another of them Messdaq stocks that caught my attention much earlier. It was listed back in 2005. And on its first full year after listing, it made a mere 1.3 million in earnings. However, the next year, it reported losses of more than 6 million. And yet again for me, it made me wonder truly about the quality and the relevancy of the Messdaq stock exchange.

Anyway, it was the company's annual meeting, and of course as expected, the company made promises that it would do better.

From Business Times article:

  • Flonic expects to be back in the black

    By Zaidi Isham Ismail Published: 2008/07/29

    FLONIC Hi-Tec Bhd, which specialises in precision cleaning for electrical and electronics (E&E) components, expects to return to the black in the current financial year ending January 2009, after registering losses in the previous financial year.

    The Shah Alam-based company made a net loss of RM6.6 million in the financial year ended January this year compared with a net profit of RM1.3 million before.

    It also registered a lower revenue of RM8.5 million this year compared with RM18.5 million a year before, due to a decrease in orders from major customers, labour and overhead costs arising from factory expansion activities.

    Flonic executive chairman and chief executive officer Yen Yoon Fah said last year
    was the worst for the company, because the world's E&E sector slowed due to the global economic slump and the US subprime crisis.

    "This year, we expect to return to the positive because as of now we already have an order book of up to RM9 million, which is half of what we secured for the whole of last year.

    "Demand has picked up with more frequent enquiries from existing and new customers, and orders, which were deferred in the previous year, are coming in now," Yen told reporters after the company's 4th shareholders meeting in Selangor yesterday.

    Flonic cleans sensitive E&E components such as computers, hard disk drives, keyboards, laptops, semiconductor, mobile phone parts, digital cameras and others.

    He said while older models of computers and electronic devices are being phased out, upgraded and newer innovative models are being launched, which require precision cleaning at the production stage.

    Yen said, the company, which exports 70 per cent of its products and expertise, is also affected by the weakening US dollar, which trims its export earnings, but the pressure was offset by its exports to Europe due to the strengthening euro.

    Yen said the company prefers to consolidate and grow slowly rather than grow all out and then later exhaust itself.

    He said the management has also taken steps to control rising cost by intensifying marketing activities, improve the design department, outsource and find the best machines.

The following statements caught my attention.

  • last year was the worst for the company, because the world's E&E sector slowed due to the global economic slump and the US subprime crisis.

I felt that wasn't too accurate.

Flonic started reporting losses for the period ending 31/1/2007 - see Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 31/1/2007 and if you add in the quarterly report made recently on June 2008, Flonic would have had reported 6 consecutive quarters of losses!

Here is the link to its most recent earnings: Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 30/4/2008.

Sales revenue of only 1.59 million and losses were 1.605 million! Balance sheet is in a terrible state.

Cash balances of 665k versus total loans of 7.239 million!

And with such a weak balance sheet, it carries a massive trade receivables of over 5 million!

I, for one, cannot simply understand how the company is managed in such a fashion. Company is clearly in dire need of cash and yet it allows such a huge receivables account! Why isn't the company attempting to collect what is due to them? Why?

So now the company states that it has a order book of 9 million and expects to return to the black.

Well, I do hope so, for the sake of its minority shareholders and I would keep track of the company's progress!

Flonic last traded at 0.045!! (Flonic once traded above 61 sen!)

Monday, July 28, 2008

Ranhill Answers: Our Financial News Being Used To Drive The Stock Higher!

Blogged on Saturday, Ranhill: Our Financial News Being Used To Drive The Stock Higher!

The stock closed up 15 sen or 11% at 1.42.


On Thursday, the stock was worth a mere 96 sen!

So thanks to that report where unnamed sources suggested that Ranhill could be taken private, the stock gained 46 sen in two trading days or 47.9%!!!!!!!!!!

Ranhill today gave an absolute incredible reply in my opinion!

  • We refer to Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad (“Bursa”)’s letter dated 25 July 2008, querying on the article that appeared in The New Straits Times, Biz News section at page 40 on Friday, 25 July 2008, particularly the caption below –

    “Ranhill Bhd is close to being taken private by controlling shareholder Tan Sri Hamdan Mohamad in a deal that can be worth about RM420 million,…”

    “…is working out the details to take it private within the next three to four months.”

    As we have advised in our response to Bursa’s query on similar nature of newspaper article sometime in January 2008, we are constantly exploring opportunities in seeking for any proposals that may contribute to our objectives to enhance and boost our shareholders’ value. The requisite announcement to Bursa will be made in accordance with Bursa’s Listing Requirements once a decision has been reached on the appropriate proposal and strategy.

The reply to the query was simply vague and inadequate.

Said by Ranhill management..

  • we are constantly exploring opportunities in seeking for any proposals that may contribute to our objectives to enhance and boost our shareholders’ value.

Constantly exploring opportunities?

Huh?

What exactly does it mean?

Why can't the management acknowledge or deny the rumours?

Why?

Is that so hard to answer?

Goldman Downgrades Bulk Shippers!

My last posting on the Baltic Dry Sector was on June 17th 2008: The Collapse of the Baltic Dry Index

On the Financial Edge, it reports that Goldman Sachs is downgrading Asia Bulkers:

28-07-2008: Goldman downgrades MBC and other Asia bulkers



  • HONG KONG: Goldman Sachs downgraded shares in China Cosco, the country's largest shipping firm, to a sell rating from neutral on Monday, citing an oversupply of freight capacity in coming years and weaker expectations for 2009 and 2010.

    Shares in China Cosco lost 1.7% after the report, underperforming a 0.6% gain on the index for Chinese shares listed in Hong Kong.

    The US investment bank, which also downgraded STX Pan Ocean, Malaysian Bulk Carriers (MBC) and U-Ming Marine on Monday to sell from neutral, said freight rates will decline with the global Capesize fleet set to double by 2011.

    "We advise investors to sell bulker stocks now, well ahead of the correction in the freight market and decline in earnings that we anticipate from 2009 onwards," the bank said in a research report on Monday.

    Goldman cut Pacific Basin to neutral from buy and sent the stock down 2.8%.

    Strong demand for energy and raw materials mainly from China have sent freight rates to record highs in the past two years and fuelled strong orders for new ships.

    The sector's order book stands at a record and the Capesize fleet, large bulk cargo ships that mostly carry iron ore and coal, is set to double by 2011, which implies very significant downside risk to the freight market, Goldman said.

    "We expect the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) to decline 40% year on year in 2009 and a further 47% in 2010," it added.

    But there are bright spots among listed Asian bulkers.

    Goldman upgraded China Shipping Development's yuan denominated A shares to buy from neutral as it is more defensive with 60% of its revenue from domestic shipping.

    It also upgraded Precious Shipping to buy from neutral because of its more attractive valuation relative to peers and on expectation of greater forward fleet coverage.

    China Shipping edged up 0.83% in Hong Kong at 0316 GMT and Precious Shipping also rose 1.6%. -- Reuters

Here is the Reuters report: Goldman downgrades COSCO, Asia bulkers

  • HONG KONG, July 28 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs downgraded shares in China COSCO (1919.HK: Quote, Profile, Research), the country's largest shipping firm, to a sell rating from neutral on Monday, citing an oversupply of freight capacity in coming years and weaker expectations for 2009 and 2010.

    Shares in China COSCO lost 1.7 percent after the report, underperforming a 0.6 percent gain on the index for Chinese shares listed in Hong Kong .HSCE.

    The U.S. investment bank, which also downgraded STX Pan Ocean (028670.KS: Quote, Profile, Research) Malysian Bulk Carriers (MBCB.KL: Quote, Profile, Research) and U-Ming Marine (2606.TW: Quote, Profile, Research) on Monday to sell from neutral, said freight rates will decline with the global Capesize fleet set to double by 2011.

    "We advise investors to sell bulker stocks now, well ahead of the correction in the freight market and decline in earnings that we anticipate from 2009 onwards," the bank said in a research report on Monday.

    Goldman cut Pacific Basin (2343.HK: Quote, Profile, Research) to neutral from buy and sent the stock down 2.8 percent.

    Strong demand for energy and raw materials mainly from China have sent freight rates to record highs in the past two years and fuelled strong orders for new ships.

    The sector's order book stands at a record and the Capesize fleet, large bulk cargo ships that mostly carry iron ore and coal, is set to double by 2011, which implies very significant downside risk to the freight market, Goldman said.

    "We expect the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) to decline 40 percent year on year in 2009 and a further 47 percent in 2010," it added.

    But there are bright spots among listed Asian bulkers.

    Goldman upgraded China Shipping Development's (600026.SS: Quote, Profile, Research) (1138.HK: Quote, Profile, Research) yuan denominated A shares to buy from neutral as it is more defensive with 60 percent of its revenue from domestic shipping.

    It also upgraded Precious Shipping PSL.BK to buy from neutral because of its more attractive valuation relative to peers and on expectation of greater forward fleet coverage.

    China Shipping edged up 0.83 percent in Hong Kong at 0316 GMT and Precious Shipping also rose 1.6 percent. (Reporting by Parvathy Ullatil and Alison Leung; editing by Jonathan Hopfner)



Saturday, July 26, 2008

FDIC Takes Over 1st National Bank of Nevada and First Heritage Bank

Posted on MSNBC news:


  • FDIC takes over two more failed banks

    CARSON CITY, Nev. - The 28 branches of 1st National Bank of Nevada and First Heritage Bank, operating in Nevada, Arizona and California, were closed Friday by federal regulators.

    The banks, owned by Scottsdale, Ariz.-based First National Bank Holding Co., were scheduled to reopen on Monday as Mutual of Omaha Bank branches, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. said.

    The FDIC said the takeover of the failed banks was the least costly resolution and all depositors — including those with funds in excess of FDIC insurance limits — will switch to Mutual of Omaha with “the full amount of their deposits.” ( click here for full article:
    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25857049/ )

Over On Washington Post.

  • Regulators Close Two More National

    "All depositors, including those with deposits in excess of the FDIC's insurance limits, will automatically become depositors of Mutual of Omaha Bank for the full amount of their deposits," the FDIC said.

    The banks, owned by First National Bank Holding Co. of Scottsdale, Ariz., are the sixth and seventh to fail this year as the financial-services industry grapples with failed loans stemming from the worst housing slump since the Depression. ( click here for rest of article:
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/07/25/AR2008072503815.html )

On Wall Street Journal: Two More Banks Fail

  • First National Bank of Nevada had $3.4 billion in assets and $3.0 billion of deposits, making it a relatively large failure by historical standards -- but much smaller than the $32 billion of assets that IndyMac Bank of Pasadena, Calif., had when it failed earlier this month. First National Bank of Nevada had 25 branches, some of which came from its June 30 merger with the First National Bank of Arizona.

    The OCC said First National Bank of Nevada "was undercapitalized and had experienced substantial dissipation of assets and earnings due to unsafe and unsound practices."

    According to regulatory filings, the Arizona-based bank that was folded into First National Bank of Nevada had a net loss of $131.3 million in the first quarter. The bank socked away $95.9 million in loan-loss provisions, a sign that it was being overwhelmed by problem loans. First National Bank of Nevada had a first-quarter net loss of $7.3 million, hurt by a loan-loss provision of $18 million.

    First Heritage had a first-quarter net loss of $1.9 million, according to a regulatory filing.

    During the housing boom, First National Bank of Arizona made mortgage loans throughout much of the U.S. Even as the housing market was weakening, the bank revved up its riskier mortgage lending, an analysis of lending data by The Wall Street Journal showed last year.

    A bank executive said at the time that much of the jump reflected borrowers who got second mortgages. The bank subsequently scaled back that business.

    First National Bank of Nevada had spent months trying to dig out of trouble. James Claffee, who recently joined the company as president and chief executive officer, told the Arizona Republic less than two weeks ago that he was hopeful the bank would be able to raise capital.

    "We're working diligently to correct our capital situation, focusing on our customers and continuing to provide the same quality of good service they've had in the past," he told the newspaper.

    On Friday night, the home page of the bank's Web site included a link to real-estate listings for more than 100 residential properties owned by the bank, likely as a result of foreclosures.

    The second failed bank, First Heritage, was much smaller, with three branches, $254 million, of assets and $233 million of deposits. The OCC said it closed First Heritage Bank because it was undercapitalized.

    "The OCC also found that the bank had incurred and is likely to incur losses that will deplete all or substantially all of its capital, and there is no reasonable prospect that the bank will become adequately capitalized without federal assistance," the OCC said.

    A deal that would have essentially spun off First Heritage to a private-equity firm fell apart last December.

    Seven banks have failed so far this year, including three having more than $1 billion of assets.

    The number of failed banks this year has already surpassed the total from 2004 through 2007, but it is nowhere near the pace set during the savings and loan crisis in the 1980s and early 1990s, when several thousand banks failed.

    Regulators have been preparing for more bank failures by adding staff, bringing on contractors, and intensifying training. The FDIC, which was created in 1933, has made a concerted push in recent months to educate bank customers about the deposit insurance rules. The FDIC insures accounts up to $100,000 per depositor, or $250,000 for some qualified retirement accounts.

    The FDIC said Friday night's failures would likely cost the FDIC's deposit insurance fund roughly $862 million.

    Mutual of Omaha Bank has more than $750 million in assets and operates 14 retail branches in Nebraska and Colorado, as well as commercial lending offices in Dallas and Des Moines, Iowa. The bank, a unit of insurer Mutual of Omaha, has said it plans to build a network of community banks in fast-growing U.S. markets where its parent has an existing base of insurance customers.

    "We would first like to reassure all customers of First National Bank of Nevada and First Heritage Bank that all their deposits are safe and accessible," Jeffrey R. Schmid, Mutual of Omaha Bank's chairman and chief executive, said in a statement. "Their deposits will automatically transition to Mutual of Omaha Bank and we will be open for business on Monday morning. (Source: here )

Ranhill: Our Financial News Being Used To Drive The Stock Higher!

The best performing stock yesterday was Ranhill who surged a whopping 30.5 sen or 31% to close at 1.27.

All thanks to yet another rumour being spun by our country's top financial news, Business Times,
Ranhill said close to being taken private

  • By Sharen Kaur Published: 2008/07/24

    RANHILL Bhd is close to being taken private by controlling shareholder Tan Sri Hamdan Mohamad in a deal that can be worth about RM420 million,
    says a source.

    The source told Business Times that Hamdan, who controls the engineering firm and is also the group's president and chief executive officer, is working out the details to take it private within the next three to four months.

    Hamdan and Ranhill executive director Datuk Chandrasekar Suppiah could not be reached for comment.

    Analysts said the controlling shareholders of Ranhill had toyed with the idea to take it private as the stock has relatively underperformed.

Now if the source and the analysts mentioned by the reported is credible then why is the source being afraid to be named?

Is it wrong to question who the source is?

Or does the source represents funds whose sole objective is to drive the stock higher?

Care to prove me wrong?

Now let's put some simple commonsense thinking also.

If Ranhill Bhd is really worth so much more and if the owners really want to take it private, why would they leak the news to the public? And when such news is leaked, surely the stock would be driven much higher, thus eliminating whatever privatisation value there might be! Would such reasoning be flawed?

So surely it wasn't the owners who leaked such news out.

But if it wasn't the owners, who then?

And why?

  • Ranhill shares have dipped by some 70 per cent this year trading as low as 79 sen in the last few weeks from a RM2.65 high in January.

Why has Ranhill dipped so much?

Perhaps one should ask why did Ranhill traded so high in the first place?

That the stock used to trade so high simply is not a justification that the market valuation was fair!

How about the incredible incident last year when the local press blatantly suggested Ranhill had struck oil? A move which saw the stock gaining a whopping 29% in one session of trading?

Yeah, do refer to the following postings, According to Sources: Ranhill Strikes Oil!!!!!!!! , According to Bloomberg: Ranhill Denies! and Do you think that Bursa should take action against misleading reporting?

Ok and how about Ranhill's performance as a company?

Here is the link to its latest earnings report, Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 31/3/2008.

It lost some 31.7 million for the quarter. Annualised earnings indicates earnings of around 38 million, giving a rough earnings per share of 6.4 sen only. So that Ranhill Bhd was trading at around 79 sen and given the fact that Ranhill cash balances were rather weak and extended, the low stock price had some just reasoning yes?

The article then continues..

  • "Even if we assume there is no value attached to its construction and EPCC business and only assigned value to its 100 per cent stakes in Ranhill Utilities Bhd (RUB) and Ranhill Power Bhd (RPB) based on their respective privatisation valuations of RM1.1 billion and RM258 million respectively, coupled with debts of about RM100 million at holding company level, Ranhill's theoretical sum or parts fair value works out to about RM1.98 apiece," the analysts said.

    "This is very close to its net tangible asset of RM1.91 a share as at March 31 2008," they added.

    For the 12-month period to June 2007, Ranhill posted a profit of RM117 million and revenue of RM1.47 billion

OMG! A new valuation method - sum of private parts? LOL! Wonder where they learned this new one from?

And that very last line..

  • For the 12-month period to June 2007, Ranhill posted a profit of RM117 million and revenue of RM1.47 billion.

That said 12-month period to June 2007 was last reported on Aug 2007. Here is the link to that earnings report. Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 30/6/2007

It's now July 2008.

Why was the current earnings performance being left out?

Why was such an outdated earnings being used as reference in the news?

If it was outdated, surely it's not 'news' anymore, yes?

And consider the following. Latest earnings from Ranhill showed a huge loss of 31.7 million! Ytd earnings for its 3 quarters of this current fiscal year only totals 28.8 million. Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 31/3/2008

It pales in comparison to a company earning 117 million!

So won't you ask if this was the reasoning why the information was blatantly left out?

And by whom?

Was it the reporter or the said same analysts?

Would you consider this as utterly horrific and appalling reporting of information where actual current facts are blatantly left out?

And when the stock soars more than 30%, don't you think it's simply more sickening?

Are our local press ruling the stock market?

Now let's consider the privatisation story again.

Let's look at Ranhill as it is. Look at some of its key balance sheet items. ( Let's refer to this Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 31/3/2008 earnings report)

Deposits, bank and cash balances... 960,154
Short-term borrowings..................... 297,174
Long-term borrowings................... 3,232,196

Let's look from an ownership perspective. The moment the boss buys everything, the boss would be in full control over the cash and debts. Yes, Ranill has a nice 960 million in its piggy bank but its total loans totals a whopping 3.529 billion! Yes, Ranill Bhd is in a whopping net debt of 2.569 billion! Which means by buying this company as it is, the boss would be effectively 2.569 billion in debts!

So how much do you reckon the boss would fork out to buy this company which is in a net debt of 2.569 billion?

I wonder.

And you know, some folks views public listed debts in a different perspective. As a public listed company, the debts owned by the plc is public. And when it's a private company, the debts become theirs!

And then, another very interesting thing for me. I was looking at some recent shareholder buying/selling activities.

Changes in Sub. S-hldr's Int. (29B) - Hamdan Mohamad

Changes in Sub. S-hldr's Int. (29B) - Hamdan Mohamad

Changes in Sub. S-hldr's Int. (29B) - Hamdan Mohamad

Look at those recent disposals of shares by Ranhill Corporation Sdn Bhd. which dilutes the boss Tan Sri Hamdan Mohamad's stake in Ranhill Bhd.

I am confused.

Macam mana ni?

If there is intent by Tan Sri Hamdan Mohamad to take Ranhill Bhd private, surely all these disposals would not have taken place, yes?

How lah?

What do you think of this privatisation story on Ranhill?

You think got any substance, ah?

Or do you think it will turn out to be yet another 'According to Sources: Ranhill Strikes Oil!!!!!!!! , According to Bloomberg: Ranhill Denies!' fiasco?

Sigh!

Friday, July 25, 2008

Playstation 2 And Its African Conflict!

I was reading this extremely interesting article posted on Yahoo regarding Sony playstation. You see there's a component inside the game console that's causing concerns.



  • According to Toward Freedom, during the 2000 launch of the PS2, the electronics giant was having trouble meeting consumer demand. To pump out more units, Sony required a significant increase in the production of electric capacitors, which are primarily made with tantalum. This helped drive the world price of the powder from $49/pound to a whopping $275/pound, resulting in the frenzied scouring of the Congolese hills known for being ripe with coltan.

    Sony has since sworn off using tantalum acquired from the Congo, claiming that current builds of the PS2, PSP and PS3 consoles are sourced from a variety of mines in several different countries.

    But according to researcher David Barouski, they're hardly off the hook.

    "SONY's PlayStation 2 launch...was a big part of the huge increase in demand for coltan that began in early 1999," he explained. "SONY and other companies like it, have the benefit of plausible deniability, because the coltan ore trades hands so many times from when it is mined to when SONY gets a processed product, that a company often has no idea where the original coltan ore came from, and frankly don't care to know. But statistical analysis shows it to be nearly inconceivable that SONY made all its PlayStations without using Congolese coltan."

    Currently, the Playstation 2 is the best-selling video game console of all-time, having sold through over 140 million units.

From $49/poound to a whopping $275/pound??? Holy moly!

And with high price, comes greed at all costs! Sigh!

  • Allegedly, the demand for coltan prompted Rwandan military groups and western mining companies to plunder hundreds of millions of dollars worth of the rare metal, often by forcing prisoners-of-war and even children to work in the country's coltan mines.

    "Kids in Congo were being sent down mines to die so that kids in Europe and America could kill imaginary aliens in their living rooms," said Ex-British Parliament Member Oona King.

Link to article: http://videogames.yahoo.com/feature/playstation-2-component-incites-african-war/1231745

Pakson Holdings Share Buybacks

Previously blogged: Are Share Buybacks Scams?

This morning, I had decided to take a deeper look into Parkson Holdings share buybacks.

As argued by Mr. Eric Englund:


  • Repurchasing shares weakens a company’s balance sheet in three key ways in that cash, working capital, and equity are diminished by the dollar amount of the shares repurchased. When a company’s stock-buyback program, over time, adds up to billions of dollars, the negative financial impact can be staggering.

Parkson Holdings started its share buybacks on 1st April 2008.

Let's look at Parkson Holdings balance sheet before it started its share buybacks and the previously reported earnings report was made on Feb 2008, Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 31/12/2007.

A quick look at their cash balances versus their borrowings.

Deposits, cash and bank balances.. 1,917,255
Long term borrowings & notes....... 2,183,393
Short term borrowings....................... 52,791

And on their income statement, the following is the direct impact of their cash/loans balances

Finance income 34,674
Finance costs (46,699)

Which means, Parkson is incurring a net 12.025 million (46.699 - 34.674) in financial costs for the quarter.

On 1st April 2008, Parkson embarked on its share buybacks. Notice of Shares Buy Back - Immediate Announcement

And I have compiled a table.

And as mentioned in the earlier blog posting, Parkson then had the following announcment made on the 29th April 2008: PARKSON-Conversion of RM195,200,000 Nominal Value of 3.5% Redeemable Convertible Secured Loan Stocks 2007/2010 into 48,800,000 New Ordinary Shares (“Conversion”) and as mentioned, what if one suspect that there might be an ulterior motive for the share buybacks?

Anyway, Parkson continued it's share buybacks. The following table shows Parkson continued share buybacks.


And if I tally the figures, as of yesterday, Parkson Holdings has purchased some 9,483,000 shares valued at a whopping 49,844,402.44.

Averaging this figure out, Parkson Holdings has bought back shares at an average price of 5.256.

As of yesterday closing price of 4.58, the CURRENT value of these shares that are bought back is 43,432,140.00

Which means, currently the 'paper loss' of these shares bought back is some 6,412,262.44.

And get this, IF and IF Parkson Holdings retest the recent low of 4.28 and assuming Parkson buys back no more, at 4.28, the value of these share bought back would only be worth 40,587,240.00. Which means Parkson Holdings would have squandered some 9,257,162 million in its share buybacks!

Ah of course, some would dare argue that Parkson Holdings should be adopting a buy and hope strategy for its share buybacks. LOL!

But seriously, don't you think that Parkson Holdings had spend far too much on its share buybacks? As of yesterday, money spend was 49,844,402.44!

Let's look at Parkson last reported earnings on May 2008. Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 31/3/2008

A quick look at their cash balances versus their borrowings.

Deposits, cash and bank balances...... 2,007,898
Long term borrowings & notes........... 2,104,058
Short term borrowings.......................... 40,702

And on their income statement.

Finance income 33,303
Finance costs (47,190)

What's a better alternative to these share buybacks? Well for starters, Parkson is not 'truly' cash rich! Yes, it has tons of money in its piggy bank but not less us not forget the mountain of debts it has too!

For it to be spending so much money in its share buybacks is rather insane in my opinion. As can be seen above, Parkson Holdings incurred some 13 million due to its massive financial costs for its most recent quarterly earnings. Wouldn't a better alternative is for Parkson Holdings to improve its balance sheet? ( Yup, such money ah? Bayar hutang la! )

Was Parkson Holdings shares really dirt cheap when it recklessly started buying back shares when Parkson was trading around 6.20 in April 2008? It last traded at 4.58 yesterday!

Do you really think that Parkson Holdings' share buybacks has given back 'value' to its shareholders or do you think that Parkson Holdings is simply being reckless in its management of its money?

How?

Thursday, July 24, 2008

Spinning that Wheel For Wells Fargo

The following passage from FinancialSense market commentator, Chris Puplava, highlights the spin put on Wells Fargo.


  • One of the main problems with the financial media is selective reporting of information where the ugly details of economic and company data are blatantly ignored while their emphasis is primarily, if not entirely, on the positive details. This is exactly what we saw last Wednesday (07/16/08) with the earnings release by Wells Fargo that propelled the stock northward by 33% at one point, and also boosted the financial sector to see one of their biggest daily rallies in more than a decade. The media emphasized two points on the Wells Fargo earnings report, which were an earnings surprise and a 10% dividend increase, while ignoring two glaringly negative tidbits.

    The financial media reported that Wells beat earnings but they did not say HOW the company beat analyst estimates. Wells Fargo earned $1.8 billion in the last quarter beating analysts polled by Thomson Financial who expected earnings of $1.6 billion. The media conveniently left out that the company changed their policy of writing off home equity loans where payments were more than 180 days late, rather than 120, thus deferring $265 million in charge-offs. Subtracting the $265 million from the company’s earnings would have led to earnings of $1.535 billion, or 4.1% BELOW analyst estimates. Second, the company quadrupled its provision for loan losses, another tidbit that was conveniently left out on many CNBC segments commenting on the company’s earnings.

    Make no mistake, things are not improving for either the economy or financial markets as the credit crisis and housing depression move up the food chain as evidenced by American Express’ earnings report this week (emphasis added).

    American Express reports 38% drop in net income
    Market Watch, 07/21/08

    American Express reported a 38% drop in second-quarter earnings Monday and warned that it won't be able to meet long-term financial targets until the economy improves.

    The credit card company said that even its most creditworthy, long-standing customers felt the effects of the economic slowdown that's currently sweeping the U.S…

    "With bad debt occurring even in the superprime card segment, AmEx's earnings clearly show that the credit crisis is going upscale, which does not bode well for the U.S. economy," Red Gillen, a senior analyst at consulting firm Celent, commented via an email exchange…

    The environment has weakened significantly since then, particularly during the month of June," Chenault (CEO) added…

Read the rest of the brilliant write-up here: Banking on Foolishness: Financial Spinsters At It Again

Wednesday, July 23, 2008

Dr. Marc Faber Update: Nigtmare and Global Bust?

Here are some scary opinions.

Nightmare on Bourke Street

  • Answering questions at the end, Faber relaxed and said what he really thinks: “I think the whole world will totally collapse. This is a completely unprecedented situation. Financial institutions have no idea what they own any more.

    “The Nasdaq is still 50 per cent below its 2000 peak, and I don’t think financial stocks will go back to their 2007 peaks.

    “My advice (to the chartered financial analysts at the dinner) is to buy a farm and learn how to drive a tractor.”

    These days Marc Faber lives Chiang Mai in northern Thailand, although he travels a lot making presentations and promoting his newsletter.

    His key point is that a synchronised global boom is now leading to a synchronised global bust.

    Of the United States, he says that its entire monetary and fiscal policies have been aimed at consumption rather than capital formation, as a result of which its competitiveness has declined.

    He says the secular uptrend in commodity prices remains intact, but that sharp corrections can be expected along the way.

    Central banks have fallen hostage to inflated asset markets, so that his recommended cure for the world’s ills – tight money – is impossible to implement.

    And as with all of his presentations, he spent a lot of time talking about the prospect of increasing geopolitical tensions and wars as a result of resource nationalism and shortage, focusing on central Asia. ( click
    here for rest of article )

On Bloomberg news: Freddie, Fannie Should Split, Not Get Aid, Faber Says

  • ``They should close down Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac or what they should do is split them into 10 different companies and let them run as private companies,'' said Faber, who forecast the so-called Black Monday crash in 1987, in an interview with Bloomberg Television from Chicago. ``What Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae should right away do is not obtain any federal aid, but issue additional shares'' to avoid using taxpayers' money in a rescue plan, he said.

    Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which own or guarantee about half of the $12 trillion of U.S. mortgages, have fallen 31 percent and 41 percent respectively this month, on concern the companies have insufficient capital to cover writedowns and losses amid the mortgage-market collapse.

    U.S. lawmakers reached agreement on a rescue plan for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac that the House may vote on today, Representative Barney Frank said. Under a modified version of proposals made by the Bush administration, the Treasury Department would gain authority to inject capital into the two largest U.S. mortgage finance companies, through loans and equity investments.

    Fannie Mae gained $1.84 to $15.25 at 7:45 a.m. New York time, before the official open of U.S. exchanges. Freddie Mac added $1.80 to $11.50.

    `Colossal Bust'

    Faber said the ``world may already be in recession,'' and reiterated a prediction for a ``bust'' in global markets.

    Markets may enter ``a vicious cycle on the downside'' whose worst scenario is a ``colossal bust with inflation,'' as central banks are unable to manage the economic slowdown and faster growth in prices.

    Still, Faber forecast the Standard & Poor's 500 Index may climb about 5.7 percent from current levels, to 1,350. Oil may drop $30 a barrel to ``about'' $100 in the near term, he said, although the ``long-term'' prospect for oil prices is to remain ``tight.''

Are Share Buybacks Scams?

I was alerted vie email by my buddy on the following editorial by Eric Englund called Stock Buybacks Are a Scam.

------------------------------------

Stock Buybacks Are a Scam

by Eric Englund

When a talking head, on CNBC, proclaims that Company X has announced a stock buyback, it is unfailingly hailed as good news for shareholders. After all, in the world of high finance, cash is trash, leverage is good, and stock buybacks can boost earnings per share and the price of the stock itself. When stock buybacks are executed judiciously, shares are purchased when management recognizes that the stock is undervalued – as it is preferable to buy while the price is low (at least that’s the theory). All of this is done, of course, under the guise of enhancing shareholder value. Hence, what is good for the shareholder (i.e., a stock buyback) must be good for the company itself. This is exactly what the charlatans, of Wall Street, want you to believe; and it is a lie.

The financial distress, besieging America’s largest financial institutions, exposes the pernicious nature of stock buybacks. Call me old fashioned and financially conservative as I have never agreed with the idea that weakening a company’s balance sheet is beneficial for the company and its shareholders – yet, it does benefit a very select group of shareholders and this will be covered below. Repurchasing shares weakens a company’s balance sheet in three key ways in that cash, working capital, and equity are diminished by the dollar amount of the shares repurchased. When a company’s stock-buyback program, over time, adds up to billions of dollars, the negative financial impact can be staggering.

The stock prices, of America’s largest banks and brokerages, have been getting hammered. Yet the declining stock prices fly in the face of the "wisdom" of buying back shares in that a scarcer number of shares should lead to higher stock prices. The following table, comprised of seven high-profile American financial institutions, neatly exposes the falsehood that stock buybacks increase shareholder value.

From fiscal-year 2001 through fiscal year-end 2007, these seven companies have repurchased $127.3 billion of their common stock. I would argue that each company’s stock-buyback program actually intensified the downward pressure on the price of their respective common shares.

It is well known that there is a global credit crisis and that investors are nervous about which financial institutions will or will not survive through these uncertain times. Top-notch financial strength, consequently, is viewed as a virtue. Thus, it stands to reason that had each of the above-mentioned companies not engaged in such reckless stock buybacks, each company would possess a dramatically stronger balance sheet. In turn, better financial strength provides a company with a greater chance of surviving difficult economic circumstances and, accordingly, would be reflected favorably in the price of its common shares. Return, to any one of these companies, the money it squandered on stock buybacks and you’d see a company with a higher stock price than currently bestowed by the marketplace.

Let’s test, a little more, Wall Street’s "logic" with respect to share repurchases. If a stock buyback is good for a company, shouldn’t buybacks take place when times are tough? After all, during tough times, shouldn’t management do good things for a company? Moreover, if stock prices have dropped precipitously, shouldn’t management be repurchasing shares hand-over-fist? The actions, of the seven aforementioned companies, speak volumes about such questions; and exposes stock buybacks as nothing more than a Wall Street scam.

Through the first five months of 2007, these seven financial institutions bought back $14.4 billion of their common stock. Through the first five months of 2008, the same exact companies repurchased only $786 million of their shares – a reduction of nearly 95%. It is painfully clear that each company’s management team has determined now is not the time to further weaken their respective balance sheets. Corporate survival may be at stake. After all, share repurchases would further erode the balance sheet and the share price may suffer even further. So, when is it ever a good time to weaken a company’s balance sheet?

In Berkshire Hathaway’s 2005 annual report, Warren Buffett criticized executive compensation schemes in his letter to shareholders. In the following example, Mr. Buffett makes it quite clear that a company’s top executives and managers can be compensated handsomely even if the company’s performance is mediocre or poor. At the epicenter, of such a compensation scheme, is management’s control over whether or not to engage in stock repurchases. Read it and weep:

Too often, executive compensation in the U.S. is ridiculously out of line with performance. That won’t change, moreover, because the deck is stacked against investors when it comes to the CEO’s pay. The upshot is that a mediocre-or-worse CEO – aided by his handpicked VP of human relations and a consultant from the ever-accommodating firm of Ratchet, Ratchet and Bingo – all too often receives gobs of money from an ill-designed compensation arrangement.

Take, for instance, ten year, fixed-price options (and who wouldn’t?). If Fred Futile, CEO of Stagnant, Inc., receives a bundle of these – let’s say enough to give him an option on 1% of the company – his self-interest is clear: He should skip dividends entirely and instead use all of the company’s earnings to repurchase stock.

Let’s assume that under Fred’s leadership Stagnant lives up to its name. In each of the ten years after the option grant, it earns $1 billion on $10 billion of net worth, which initially comes to $10 per share on the 100 million shares then outstanding. Fred eschews dividends and regularly uses all earnings to repurchase shares. If the stock constantly sells at ten times earnings per share, it will have appreciated 158% by the end of the option period. That’s because repurchases would reduce the number of shares to 38.7 million by that time, and earnings per share would thereby increase to $25.80. Simply by withholding earnings from owners, Fred gets very rich, making a cool $158 million, despite the business itself improving not at all. Astonishingly, Fred could have made more than $100 million if Stagnant’s earnings had declined by 20% during the ten-year period.

Indeed, stock repurchases benefit a narrow group of corporate insiders. Not only can such insiders benefit while the company remains stagnant, they can financially benefit while simultaneously demolishing the company’s balance sheet. A perfect example can be found at Citigroup.

As you saw above, Citigroup was the most aggressive company when it came to repurchasing shares. Over the past three quarters, Citigroup has suffered a cumulative net loss of $17.4 billion. To be sure, these losses were "baked in the cake" ten to fourteen quarters ago when Citigroup was speculating in mortgage-backed securities, extending shaky loans, entering into risky transactions with the monoline insurers, and participating in speculative leveraged buyouts. Credit standards were set irresponsibly low so that revenues and net earnings would go sky high. And, in order to goose Citigroup’s stock price and executive compensation, Citigroup engaged in nothing short of an orgiastic stock buyback program. It worked for a while with the stock peaking at nearly $56 per share in December of 2007. Now, the chickens have come home to roost as Citigroup’s share price has collapsed by approximately 65%.

Since Vikram Pandit became Citigroup’s CEO eight months ago, he has been instrumental in raising $40 billion in new capital for Citigroup. As stated in this July 15, 2008 International Herald Tribune article, Mr. Pandit "…is trying to turn around Citigroup as the banking industry struggles through one of its most challenging periods since the Depression. His task is particularly difficult because many Citigroup bankers, paid with stock and options for years, have seen their fortunes vanish. Morale is low." I have no sympathy for these demoralized Citigroup executives and managers as their "fortunes" were built upon a financially destructive stock-buyback program pyramided upon intellectually bankrupt business and credit practices.

The next time you hear a CNBC talking head gush over a company’s stock-buyback announcement, think of Fred Futile and his self-dealing management style. To praise the weakening of a company’s financial condition reveals the vapid nature of financial reporting. More importantly, the incredible amount of stock repurchased by the seven above-mentioned financial institutions exposes the intellectual and moral rot of countless business managers and their Wall Street enablers. Not a single analyst has cried "foul" and questioned the grotesque balance sheet mismanagement of any of these financial powerhouses (or, more accurately, former powerhouses). To me, this further reinforces my core belief that Wall Street exists to redistribute wealth from the poor and the middle-class to the wealthy. To deny this is to remain comfortable dealing with liars and thieves.

---------------

Me too have blogged about stock buybacks locally.

Take Green Packet's share buybacks. Regarding Green Packet's Share Buybacks.

  • So, from Dec 26th 2007 to Jan 2nd 2008, Green Packet's share buybacks saw it paid a lowest price of 2.38 and a highest price of 2.93!

It was shocking. The share buybacks fried the stock much higher!!

It's now July 2008. Green Packet only trades for 1.17. Has Green Packet's share buybacks failed?

Take Regarding Top Glove share buybacks.

Top Glove share buybacks started last year. If not mistaken this was their first buyback on 21/9/2007. : Notice of Shares Buy Back - Immediate Announcement. Highest price paid then was 6.00. Less one month later, on 10/10/2007 : Notice of Shares Buy Back - Immediate Announcement Highest price paid was 6.70!

Again, wasn't Top Glove using it's share buybacks to fry the stock higher?

And how much is Top Glove's shares worth now? 4.04!

And how every one's beloved Parkson Holdings?

Yes that stock!

Now, you can hate me for posting this but these are the bare facts.

Parkson first buyback I saw was on 1/4/2008. Notice of Shares Buy Back - Immediate Announcement Maximum price paid was 6.35

In the every same month, there was this announcement. PARKSON-Conversion of RM195,200,000 Nominal Value of 3.5% Redeemable Convertible Secured Loan Stocks 2007/2010 into 48,800,000 New Ordinary Shares (“Conversion”)

Reasons for one to suspect that there might be an ulterior motive for the share buybacks?

And the price of Parkson today? Parkson is now worth 4.70 (it rallied 20 sen higher this morning!)

I could dig for more but from these three examples, would you not say that money is clearly squandered by reckless share buybacks programs??

How?

Garment Maker Wants to Turn Into An Oil & Gas Player?

Yes, this is the story of Baneng Holdings. Baneng Holdings a garment maker wants to transform itself to an oil and gas player!

And how nice, our local press decides to promote this incredible story!

Published on Business Times: Baneng plans to ride on oil and gas boom

  • Baneng plans to ride on oil and gas boom

    Published: 2008/07/23

    The garments maker has explored this business for some time, and this will be a good opportunity for it to move into the oil and gas sector this year, says its executive director

    GARMENTS maker Baneng Holdings Bhd is mulling to venture into the oil and gas industry to expand its earning base, executive director Albert Lim Meng Hong said.

    "We are negotiating and finalising with several parties on our foray into this sector within the next few months," he said in a statement.

    Lim said some of the areas in which Baneng is interested in are bunker services, floating storage vessels, fabrication and engineering, and trading in marine fuel and petrochemical products.

    "We have been exploring this business for some time and this will be a good opportunity for us to move into oil and gas field this year," he added.

    The group is now engaged in the manufacturing, knitting and dyeing of a range of fabrics, apparels, garments and related products.

    "Venturing into the promising oil and gas industry is attractive for the group to ride the oil and gas boom and to expand its earnings base," Lim said.

    Shares of Baneng have risen 73.9 per cent this year, a stark contrast to the 23.2 per cent fall in Kuala Lumpur Composite Index over the same period.

    The usually thinly-traded stock has also seen some active transactions in the past few days.

    About 4.8 million Baneng shares changed hands on Bursa Malaysia yesterday. This is seven times the stock's average volume in the past 15 days, and 14 times of its 30 days average volume.

    Baneng closed 10 per cent higher at 76.5 sen yesterday.

And how the stock flew!

Truly surreal. The company is ONLY mulling and exploring opportunities in the oil and gas sector and yet the stock is up a whopping 79%!!!!

I wonder if being a garment maker is truly bad business for Baneng.

Let me check some of the more recent quarterly earnings from Baneng Holdings.

Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 31/3/2008 : Net earnings 638 thousand!

Here is their balance sheet.

See their cash balance of only 4.914 million? And long term borrowings totals 36.486 million and short term borrowings is at a whopping 98.944 million!

Mountain of debt.

Look at the insanely high trade receivables of over 77 million. Why so high?

Here's the previous quarterly earnings.

Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 31/12/2007: Net loss of 3.82 million!

Oh my, such quality! Do I even want to look at more details?

Perhaps one day I shall turn my barnyard into a luxury resort with cows singing some Elton John tunes.

Investment Lessons We Can Use: III

The following passages were taken from this great forum posting: http://www.wallstraits.com/community/viewthread.php?tid=1231&page=1

See also
Investment Lessons We Can Use and Investment Lessons We Can Use: II

-----------------------

When I identify an opportunity, I would classify them into one one of the above categories. For each category, I have established arbitrary maximum allocation limits (eg. 30% for Cat 1, 20% for cat 2 & 10% for cat 3).

If I identify a Cat 1 stock, instead of buying 30% at one go, I would buy say 20% and only if the stock price falls by 20% would I purchase the balance 10%.

In addition, if the stock continues to fall after I have acquired 30% and assuming this fall does not change my view of the stock I would not acquire any more shares, for the reason that taking too large a position in any company would constitute a gamble no matter how save I think the investment is.

The basic idea is that you do not want to be wiped out by any single decision and there should always be a limit to how much exposure we have to any company, no matter how save the investment appears or how low its price.

[ Comments: Ahhh... One of the better advice in my opinion. The very basic idea is that we are liable to make mistakes! As no matter how good we are we can make mistakes and logically, it would be darn silly to be wiped out by a mistake! And sadly, I do see this as a major problem with most local 'investors'. Having enjoyed one incredible bull run, many stuck to the idea that stocks must be held for the long run. Yes, I do agree but sometimes we need to question if we had erred in our stock selection!!! Did we make a poor judgement? And sometimes the stock might be good but overpaying for the investment would also yield a very poor result in the long run!

There were some chatter that "But most successes come from extreme mentality, those who practice stop-loss or target-win end up being average investors."

Here's my simple reasoning on the stop-loss thing.

So if we made a wrong stock selection, this is an investing mistake, yes?

So if it's a mistake, what's next?

Shouldn't one correct the mistake?

And would one do that?

Isn't the one and logical way to do is to admit to the mistake and correct it? And isn't this done by selling that stock (ie a stop-loss)?

And extreme mentality is simply hazardous. There's no point being a hero with extreme mentality if there is no logical reasoning in being extreme. It's like contrarian investing. I guess being a contrarian investor would makes one feel special but there's no point in being special if the reason to be contrarian is flawed.

Well, that's my opinion and obviously my opinion could be flawed. ]

The limits used for the various categories can be modified to suit the individual investor's risk appetite and comfort level, eg. you may set a limit of 20% for Cat 1 stocks and acquire an initial stake of 15% and the balance of 5% if the stock falls substantially. Once the 20% is hit, acquire no more shares of that company.

Personally I would not allocate more than 10% of my portfolio to any one China stock. From fundamental analysis these companies appear to be cash-rich with strong growth potential.

But for many of us we have not even seen the products they manufacture. Nor do we understand the Chinese business environment the companies operate in. How then can we claim to have sufficient understanding of the company to justify a significant allocation of funds.

[ Comments: Yet another good advice! How well do we really understand the business of the company that we want to invest in?]


Tuesday, July 22, 2008

BankAtlantic Sues Firm, Analyst Bove for Defamation

Here's an extremely interesting development!

BankAtlantic Sues Firm, Analyst Bove for Defamation

  • BankAtlantic Sues Firm, Analyst Bove for Defamation

    By Edvard Pettersson

    July 21 (Bloomberg) -- BankAtlantic Bancorp Inc. sued Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. and analyst Richard Bove for a report on possible bank failures called ``Who is Next?,'' alleging the institution was defamed by its inclusion.

    BankAtlantic, a unit of BFC Financial Corp., sued for defamation and negligence in a complaint filed today in state court in Broward County, Florida. BankAtlantic, based in Fort Lauderdale, jumped as high as 31 percent.

    ``While Bove's report purports to consider which banks might fail, he failed to examine the health of the banks and thrifts in his report,'' BankAtlantic Chairman Alan Levan said in a statement. ``He only examined holding company data which, in at least our case, is meaningless information.''

    The Florida lawsuit follows a North Carolina appeals court ruling in April holding that analysts couldn't be sued for expressing opinions. In that case, Nucor Corp., the largest U.S. steelmaker by market value, lost a bid to reinstate a libel and unfair trade practices lawsuit against Prudential Equity Group LLC and two former analysts for comments made in a report.

    The Charlotte, North Carolina-based steelmaker sued Prudential and analysts John Tumazos and Paretosh Misra in 2007 after they wrote Nucor may trigger antitrust lawsuits and had ``monopoly dreams.''

    107 Institutions

    BankAtlantic's shares fell 25 percent to close at 90 cents on July 14, the day after Bove's report was published. The bank said at the time that the analyst mistakenly looked to the finances of its holding company instead of those of the bank.

    ``As an analyst, I feel that I should be able to say what I choose to say as long as it is objective and based upon fact,'' Bove said today in an interview with Bloomberg Television. ``In the banking industry, there is a fear that statements by analysts which are very negative could have an impact.''

    Bove, 67, added that he wasn't aware of any other analyst ``that's been sued for writing something about the industry.''

    ``This isn't a matter of opinion, it's a misrepresentation of fact,'' Gene Stearns, a lawyer for BankAtlantic, said in a telephone interview.

    click here for rest of article.. here

Video clip from cnbc: http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=799544641

Regarding MK Land Again.

Blogged recently on July 14th and July 15th 2008: Yet Another Privatisation Story! This Time MK Land! and MK Land Denies The Privatisation Story


  • Trading volume on 10th July 2008 was 18,996 and on the trading volume on the 11th July was a mere 12,496 million. And many thanks to this malicious, baseless rumour published on Business Times, trading volume surged to an incredible 113,720 million!
Saw this news article on Star Biz: US fund sells 3.4m MK Land shares


  • Tuesday July 22, 2008 MYT 11:47:17 AM
    US fund sells 3.4m MK Land shares

    KUALA LUMPUR: US-based fund Liberty Square Asset Management continued to reduce its shareholding in MK Land Holdings Bhd with the recent disposal of 3.46 million shares.

    A filing with Bursa Malaysia showed Liberty Square had sold the shares in the open market on July 17, reducing its total stake to 4.88% or 58.79 million shares.

    The fund had on July 9 disposed of 1.85 million shares.

    MK Land share price closed at 22.5 sen on July 16. The share price surged to a 52-week high of RM1.20 on July 23 last year and its 52-week low was Monday at 19.5 sen.

How now about that privatisation story told by Business Time? (See Yet Another Privatisation Story! This Time MK Land! )

  • TAN Sri Mustapha Kamal Abu Bakar, a co-founder of MK Land Holdings Bhd, may take the troubled property developer private as part of plans to turn it around, a source close to him said.

    The businessman holds 47.4 per cent of MK Land and he has taken over the company's leadership as chief executive on June 25.

    He replaces his partner Datuk P. Kasi who was redesignated as a non-executive director. Kasi holds 25.4 per cent of MK Land.

    "As a majority stakeholder of MK Land, it's logical for him to come back and return the company to the black," the source said.

Won't a reader like me be suspicious on the intention of the initial report by Business Times?

Did the source gave Business Times the story with the sole intention of facilitating Liberty Square disposal disposal of shares?

How?

Don't you think our financial press are badly abused for personal vested interests?

Investment Lessons We Can Use: II

Previously posted: Investment Lessons We Can Use

Here is another posting which I thought was rather educational, one that we can learn and profit from.

~~~~~~~~~~~

I agree that averaging down is a scary thing. When you buy a stock like you buy a business (which means price is only one small component of your overall analysis) and the price falls-- what I do is ask myself "if the business is failing"? A falling stock price may be a sign of danger as other savvy investors see flaws with the business model, increasing competition (usually seen as narrowing profit margins), etc. Or, sometimes it is an over-reaction to what you believe is a temporary setback, like rising commodity prices.

If, after raising your skeptical antenna, you continue to believe your business is on track to continue its long term growth and build shareholder value... than the proper (if corageous) thing to do is buy more shares at the now more attractive price. After all, it is the same business you previously liked at a higher price.

If, on the other hand, your heightened skepticism results in some important questions needing answered-- maybe about intensifying competition or rising raw material costs-- you might want to sit back and wait and study further. But, cut loss on rumors and whims isn't likely to make you wealth. Often, you will be selling into weakness with the irrational crowd without confirming any business weaknesses. A cut-loss system, or any other system that doesn't require careful analysis and thought, is not very wise and not very FA-ish.

An example... Warren Buffett accumulated shares of the Washington Post during the 1970s recession, and bought more during a newspaper union employee strike. He saw these as temporary troubles, while others were cutting losses. He is now up more than 10-fold. He bought American Express during troubled times, he bought Geico Insurance when it was in trouble too. He looked at the falling share prices in each case, and decided to buy more, because he believed the businesses were sound and their troubles temporary. He was usually right.

Most important aspect of FA... be careful you only buy good businesses at fair prices (our 8-step screen, built on Mr. Buffett's wisdom). If you get this right, you eliminate most worries about cutting losses. Step 2... remember Ben Graham's advice... "Never buy a stock simply because it has risen sharply in price or sell one because it has fallen sharply in price. The opposite advice would be wiser."

Sage


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Comments:

1. The average down issue.

Recently, the past couple of months, I had witnessed many so-called good stocks falling down hard. For me, I think it's more important to distinguish if there are indeed real changes in the business economics. To simply brush it off and proclaim as poor market sentiments and over-reaction would be rather unhealthy in a less than matured market such as ours. And to simply average down without truly understanding what is happening is simply suicidal.

2. Buffett and Washington Post and Amex.

Yes Warren Buffett was right because these 2 companies had a very strong competitive advantage in its business. Washington Post had a monopoly-like business because it dominated the media business in the Washngton area. Amex is Amex is amex! So one needs to understand why Buffett did not cut-loss. These 2 companies had extra-ordinary strong competitive advantage. Do compare with the companies locally. Do they really have the same edge at all??? Are they even close? If no, then it's never quite the same as what Buffett did!

Monday, July 21, 2008

Investment Lessons We Can Use

Read this incredible posting here: http://www.wallstraits.com/community/viewthread.php?tid=1231&page=1

----------------------

Investment lessons learnt this year and advice for newbies

When I just started investing late last year, this was the first investment website I stumbed upon. I was greatly influenced by its FA bent and the eloquent arguments from fellow forummers.

I have some advice for newbies from personal experiences as a newbie.

There are certain practices advocated by FA proponents that newbies need to be careful of. (If you are a grandmaster like d.o.g or Sage, you can ignore the warnings below. I need your advice more than you need mine. This post is more for the benefit of newbies)

The first one is with regards to averaging down. FA proponents like to say when the share price of one of your holdings goes down, you should buy more because it has become cheaper. So, when prices are depressed, you should be happier because you can buy more of the same good thing more cheaply.

You could try that if you have sufficient grounds to be so confident of your investment. But if you are just starting out as a newbie like me, please cut your losses and don't compound your mistake. You make a purchase, the share price goes down -> probably you made a mistake. Who are you, little junior, to argue against the market? If you are a newbie, assume you are an idiot waiting to pay school fees and don't average down. Cut your losses!!

Perhaps the most valuable advice that I have received from FA proponents is to know your investments very well and avoid those which you only vaguely understand. If you know your investments with the depth that Warren Buffett has with his, then you can average down with less worry.

One of my mistakes was to make investments based on superficial understanding. True, I read prospectus, annual reports and even taught myself accounting so that I could understand financial reports better. Most of my investments were made based on favourable financial ratios without a deep understanding of the business nature. I did not try out the company's goods and services. I don't know if the company's customers, employees, suppliers are satisfied with it.

My main fault as a newbie was to be over-confident. I thought after reading and learning so much, I was ready. I thought I could be as good as the masters and followed one of their strategy -- concentrate your eggs in one basket and watch that basket carefully. Once again, I reiterate that such a strategy is meant for the masters. If you are an amatuer, it is safer to assume that you are an idiot and to protect yourself from stupidity, please diversify. By putting all your eggs in one basket, you may have fatally injured yourself by catching all the falling knives with one hand.

Some FA practitioners do not have a stop-loss policy. They use a similar argument - if a good thing becomes cheaper, I should buy more instead of selling it away.

The TA approach "Cut your losses and let your profits run" is worth considering. It is a safe way to protect your capital. Sell after your losses reach 10% of the intial capital outlay no matter what. After all, he who fights and runs away may live to fight another day. In fact, by adopting such an approach, you could protect yourself against CAO, Informatics and Auston.

Unfortunately, I did not follow the advice above. I waited until fundamentals have clearly decayed before thinking of selling. In the meantime, I continued to average down as the price slided down. When the financial report was out, fundamentals did look bad but ALAS!!, it is too painful to sell now.

This is one of the problems with FA. You can only make decisions an a quarterly or half-yearly basis which by then, the price may have slid to a psychological unacceptable level to sell.

FA proponents like to say making decisions based on price movement is nonsense. Say, the management has been trying to hide important fundamental data from the financial reports for as long as they can. The silent accomplices - auditors and independent directors - who are on their payroll prefer to close one eye or both eyes as long as they have ready excuses to plead ignorance and other disclaimers when the situation implodes.

The poor FA practioner will continue to average down, thinking that he is profiting at the expense of the foolish irrational market. Meanwhile, the insiders are selling the stock down to the sucker - that foolish guy averaging down.

In such a situation, the TA practioners will be safe. Having observed that the price has been in a downtrend caused by insiders selling down, they would have already sold out before the bombshell explodes. In the cases of CAO, Informatics and Auston, the price chart has shown an obvious downtrend before the explosive truth was out.

Are there any other advice and warnings fellow forummers can share with future newbies?

PS: I do not want to get into a TA vs FA debate. If any FA proponent thinks I am wrong, please point it out objectively without making personal remarks. I am still learning and am considering using a mixture of both FA and TA at the moment.


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Comments:

Excellent advice!!!

Remember who we are!

Sometimes, when a so called good share goes down after we purchase, we have to be realistic and ask ourselves a simple question: Did we screw up in our stock selection?

And if you did, averaging down means u are buying more shares in a wrong investment! Doesn't make sense, does it? Remember CUT YOUR LOSSES!!!!

Saturday, July 19, 2008

Blodget Calls It Wall Street Self-Defense

Reading past Warren Buffett's Letters on the issue of the professional money managers reminded me of the series of articles written in 2004 by one Mr.Henry Blodget. Oh yeah, that bugger Henry Blodget, that bugger that made that amazing Amazon BUY call from US150.00 to US400.00 a share in Dec 1998.

Anyway, I thought it would do me good to re-read some of the stuff Blodget wrote when he was asked to post at the Slate website in 2004, during the trial of one Martha Stewart.

Here is some interesting stuff written in
Part IV

  • And this isn't even the real problem. The real problem is that, in any stock-picking effort, you and your adviser will be competing with thousands upon thousands of full-time professionals engaged in nothing but trying to find and exploit tiny information advantages that other full-time professionals miss. These full-time professionals are smart, nimble, experienced, well-trained, well-equipped, and deeply plugged in, so much so that they often finish exploiting valuable information before you (or CNBC) even know it exists (and, even so, most of the pros still can't beat the market!). To beat the market, you have to capitalize on other investors' mistakes, and, in this effort, no matter how alert and dedicated your adviser is, the two of you will be at a major disadvantage.
  • So what are financial advisers good for? The best ones, in my opinion, will do less, not more. They will be decent, trustworthy people you feel comfortable with. They will help you allocate your assets appropriately and keep your costs low—a strategy that will usually generate less compensation for the advisers but higher returns for you.

In Smart? Skillful? Probably Just Lucky

  • Because stocks and markets can only go up or down, analysts, strategists, and investors often have at least 50-50 odds of being "right." (The odds that any specific stock will rise are likely worse than those for the S&P 500, but on average, they are probably still close to 50-50.) Fifty-fifty odds are pretty good odds—better than any you'll find in Las Vegas, for example (and it is worth noting that ubiquitous awareness of this doesn't stop millions from jetting to the desert and gleefully throwing money away). Because the stock market is not random, moreover, but loosely tracks the growth of profits and dividends, forecasters who predict the market is going to rise have better than 50-50 odds (over time, profits and dividends usually increase). Here's the catch, though. Human psychology being what it is, stock forecasters—and those who evaluate them—almost never factor these odds into their assessments of the forecasters' skills. (In 1998, when I suggested that Amazon's stock might eventually hit $400 a share, some media observers reacted with first shock and then adulation, as though the odds against this were 1,000-to-1; given the conditions at the time, I thought they were better than even). Similarly, those who buy stocks and make money almost never realize that a monkey should win about 50 percent of the time. Instead, they congratulate themselves on their acumen—they were right!—and double down. In a bull market, when the odds that the market, at least, will rise are even better than 2-in-3 (from 1982 to 1999, the S&P 500 rose 15 out of 18 years, or 83 percent of the time), most people forget their "mistakes" and increasingly come to believe that the next investing best seller should be titled George Soros, Warren Buffett, and Me.

  • This is not to say that all investing success is luck—it isn't. Some people are better than average, and, over time, some of them will generate superior returns. (According to John Bogle's Common Sense on Mutual Funds, approximately one in six mutual fund managers has enough skill to consistently beat the market after costs—1 in 6.) This skill, however, has little to do with the simplistic price predictions that dominate most market discourse. It stems from discipline, patience, experience, and methodologies that lead to a rare ability to determine when the odds are distinctly good or bad. Skilled investors aren't immune from losses—far from it. They are just talented enough that eventually, gradually, their skill allows them to win.

And in another more shocking piece, Blodget writes What Stock Analysts Are Good For

  • If this is so, then what the heck are stock analysts for? Why are thousands of analysts being paid zillions of dollars to do work that, on average, apparently isn't worth the cost of the chairs the analysts sit on?
    The answer is complex. First, it turns out that stock analysts are valuable—sometimes very valuable—but not in the way that most of the public and financial press think. Specifically, casual observers view analysts simply as "stock-pickers," when stock-picking is often one of the least helpful services they provide. An
    analyst's goal is to help investors make decisions, a mission that encompasses not only rating stocks, but also providing industry expertise, trend-spotting, evaluating scuttlebutt and gossip, interviewing management and customers, and shaping mountains of raw data into coherent projections
  • Which brings us back to the original question: If, despite all these efforts, the market is so hard to beat, why have analysts at all? The simple answer—a tautological one—is that as long as there are investors who try to beat the market, there will be analysts who, one way or another, try to help them. The more profound answer is that one of the reasons the market is so hard to beat, even for professionals, is that, in aggregate, analysts and investors are good at what they do (evaluating, distributing, wringing the profit out of every piece of information). After an 18-year bull market, of course, the number of analysts has ballooned beyond what is needed to get the job done—the world probably doesn't need 24 analysts covering Microsoft, for example—but Wall Street is nothing if not laser-focused on the bottom line. Over time, if the market stays stagnant, many analysts will eventually be exploring other professions. But there will always be Wall Street jobs for the best of them.

And in The Trouble With CNBC and Smart Money and …

  • The sad truth is that sound investment policy is boring. Diversify, reduce costs, aim to earn the market rate of return—even Stephen King would have trouble telling stories about that. But for the financial media to survive—at least the financial media devoted to helping you "profit" from reading/watching/listening—they have to suggest, over and over again, that there are exciting new places to put your money or dangerous places to remove it from. They have to tantalize you with the latest, greatest mutual funds or the "Ten Hot Stocks for 2005." They have to make you drool by observing, again and again, that every dollar invested in Microsoft's IPO in 1986 would be worth about $300 today. (Next time, it will be you!) They have to enumerate new ways to refinance your house, consolidate your debt, track your investments, pick better stocks, beat the pros, buy treasuries, retire rich, or make millions. They have to keep you watching, listening, and reading, or else they—not you, they—will go bankrupt.
    Unfortunately, the underlying message of such commentary—Do something!—is often hazardous. Once you have gotten the investing basics right, you should do almost nothing. Every time you make a change, you incur costs—transaction costs, tax costs, psychological costs, and opportunity costs. You also, in many cases, decrease your odds of success. The least predictable investment decisions are those focused on the short term (months and years). The most predictable, meanwhile, are those focused on the long term (decades). To the media, of course, the long term is death. How often will you pay or tune in to be told that you shouldn't do anything, that nothing has changed? Answer? Never. So the media must find other ways to keep you entertained.

And in Born Suckers , Blodget states the following!!!!!

  • This self-defense guide would not be complete if I did not address the greatest Wall Street danger of all: you.
    Human beings, it turns out, are wired to make dumb investing mistakes. What's more, we are wired not to learn from them, but to make them again and again. If there is consolation, it is that it's not our fault. We are born suckers.

Self-attribution Bias: We attribute our successes to ourselves, and we blame our losses on others or bad luck. This hobbles us in two ways. First, we don't learn from our mistakes because we don't see them as mistakes. Second, we assume we are skilled or smart when we're just lucky.


The Gambler's Fallacy: We tend to believe, incorrectly, that if a flipped coin has come up heads three times in a row it is more likely come up tails next time. Similarly, just because a stock or market has gone up or down for a while doesn't mean it is more likely to go the other way soon.

Prospect Theory: We have an irrational tendency to sell our winners to lock in profits and keep our losers to avoid taking losses. This causes us to sell too early when the market is going up and too late when it is going down. We also feel the pain of loss more than the pleasure of gain and, therefore, blow out losing positions in panic when we should just hang on.

Conservatism Bias and Confirmatory Bias: Once we form opinions, we tend to overvalue information that reinforces them and undervalue information that undermines them (conservatism bias). We even tend to seek out supporting information (confirmatory bias). Thus, we irrationally cling to incorrect conclusions, and, to paraphrase Simon and Garfunkel, hear what we want to hear and disregard the rest.

Overoptimism: We tend to be overoptimistic and overconfident. According to James Montier, when students are asked whether they will perform in the top half of their class, an average of 80 percent say yes. This tendency makes it easier for part-time hobbyists to dismiss a century's worth of academic research showing that only a tiny fraction of full-time professionals can beat the market.

Outcome Bias: We tend to evaluate decisions based on outcomes instead of probabilities. Thus, we congratulate ourselves for stupid choices that happen to turn out well and vow to never again make smart choices that happen to turn out badly. Our errors get reinforced, and our wise decisions rejected.

Buffett's "Rearview Mirror": We base our expectations for the future on what has happened in the recent past. Thus, we are most bullish at the end of long bull markets, when we should be most bearish, and most bearish at the end of long bear markets, when we should be most bullish.

Hindsight Bias: When we reflect on the past, we imagine that we knew what was going to happen when we didn't. As James Montier puts it, "You didn't know it all along, you just think you did." This allows us to imagine, for example, that we knew that the tech boom of the late '90s was a bubble and that everyone who suggested otherwise was an idiot or crook. It also makes us overconfident about our ability to predict what will happen next.

Friday, July 18, 2008

Investing: Learn from Your Mistakes!

Blast from Past: My favourite investing articles.

Published on MSN Money back in 2003. Learn from your mistakes -- without going broke

  • Mr. Market doesn’t give scholarships. Making mistakes in investing is how you learn. The trick is learning to limit the costs of your mistakes.

    By Bill Fleckenstein

    In the investing business, it's very easy to misjudge things and then find yourself in a situation where something you expected to happen didn't happen or happened in a way different from what you expected. That is, you were wrong.

    Being wrong in this business comes with the territory. The real trick in the investment business is making sure that your mistakes don't kill you.

    Unfortunately, my experience has been that the way you learn is by making mistakes. It's the tuition you pay to Mr. Market, if you will. I have made every mistake imaginable, some more than once. But thanks to having done so, I make fewer of them now than I used to.

    Readers of my daily Market Rap column know that I stand behind my motto: "Often wrong, never in doubt." I have a lot of conviction, but I make plenty of mistakes. So, when you factor what I think into what you think, you should factor in the possibility that I might be wrong, and then consider how you will deal with that.

    Finding the way to control the risks
    I often am asked how I decide whether to be short a stock or own puts, or how I pick a stock to short in the first place. Often, I make my decision based on how best to control my risk. I rarely ever short a stock unless I think I have a specific catalyst that would drive the share price lower. Then, if I can find an inexpensive way to use put options, I do. Usually I can't, and I short the stock. If I am going into an earnings announcement or something like that, I find it much safer to own puts rather than to short the stock, but that is often not possible. To repeat, the idea is to find ways of controlling your risk so that, if you’re wrong, you don't get killed. Your winners tend to take care of themselves.

    Walking a fine line on whether to sell
    Let's take a second to talk about winners. One mistake that I’ve made in the past is, I get long a stock, and it turns out to be a big winner. At some point in the cycle of rising, it goes up faster than I anticipate or can understand. So, I sell it or begin selling too aggressively, and the next thing I know, I’ve been left behind.

    I think some people are going to do that with gold stocks. They’ll say that gold stocks have gone up too fast or they’re overvalued, or whatever. You might do that successfully once or twice, but it's very easy to wind up having lost your position. (Of course, there is a difference between a core position and a trading position that I use in something like gold.)

    But some people might now find themselves with too big a position in the metals; in that case, selling some to spare yourself angst is a wise decision. In managing a portfolio, you face a constant battle of controlling your risk while not wanting to cut off your winners too soon -- and while battling your own emotional baggage.

    Investing is a complicated subject even when done right. None of us has all the answers, and we all make mistakes.

    Despite my being constructive last spring, the present surge in the market has been bigger and better than I imagined. But I really couldn’t care less that the market is going up and I didn't catch it. The risk/reward has been all wrong, in my opinion (even though it has worked).

    It’s as if you’ve been playing poker and continually drawn to an inside straight. Odds say you lose, but if you do it and win, you’ll have made money even if the risk/reward was poor. And that’s been the story with the stock market.

    Down the road, I'll have an opportunity to buy stocks at reasonable prices, and everyone else will, too. You shouldn't have a lot of angst if a stock or a market with poor risk/reward characteristics went up "without you."

    I feel very strongly, as I have stated frequently, that this is a rally in a bear market and that the economic strength is transitory. Folks who want to be rational will find a juncture down the road to get long stocks, with a lot less risk.

    It’s OK to sit on cash
    In the meantime, while it's no fun holding cash that pays scant interest, you should take some solace in that you've got pretty good company. As an Oct. 27 Barron's interview with Warren Buffett recounted, it's what one of the world's greatest investors is doing. He’s sitting on $24 billion. Cash is not trash. People work so hard to earn it. But once they have it in their portfolios, they act as if it's going to give them a communicable disease. It’s not a disease to be gotten rid of as soon as possible. It does need to be cared for. I hope this little discussion of the fundamental and psychological variables inherent in the investment business is useful.

Hear that? Cash is not trash! And it's ok to sit on cash!

And here's more wise words said.

  • 1. I have always found it profitable to study my mistakes.

    2. If a man didn't make mistakes he'd own the world in a month. But if he didn't profit by his mistakes he wouldn't own a blessed thing.

    3. I was wrong; and the only thing to do when a man is wrong is to be right by ceasing to be wrong.

    4. The recognition of our own mistakes should not benefit us any more than the study of our successes. But there is a natural tendency in all men to avoid punishment. When you associate certain mistakes with a liking, you do not hanker for a second dose, and, of course, all stock market mistakes wound you in two tender spots - your pocketbook and your vanity. But i will tell you something curious: A stock speculator sometimes make mistakes and knows that he is making them. And after he makes them; and after thinking over it cold bloodedly a long time after the pain of punishment is over he may learn how he make them, and when, and at what particular point of his trade; but not why. And he simply calls himself names and let it go at that.

    Of course, if a man is both wise and lucky, he will not make the mistake twice. But he will make any of the ten thousand brothers or cousins of the original. The Mistake familiy is so large that there is always one of them around when you want to see what you can do in the fool-play line
    .

    5. Losing money is the least of my troubles. A loss never bothes me after i take it. I forget it overnight. But being wrong - not taking the loss - that is what does the damage to the pocketbook and to the soul.

    6. In addition to trying to determine how to make money one must also try to keep from losing money. It is almost as important to know what not to do as to know what should be done.



A New Legendary Investor, Ken Heebner

Here's an interesting feature article on Fortune Magazine on Ken Heebner, America's hottest investor!!

The following are some of the interesting passages for me.


How good is he?

  • Just how good has Heebner been? We may well be witnessing the most dazzling run of stock picking in mutual fund history. Since May 1998, Focus has an average annualized return of 24%, the best ten-year record of any U.S. mutual fund, compared with only 4% for Standard & Poor's 500. Focus, which has $7.4 billion in assets, is already up 15% in 2008 (as of May 19), but it is 2007 that will be remembered as Heebner's pièce de résistance. Fueled by big bets on energy, fertilizer, and metals, Focus soared 80% last year, vs. 5% for the S&P 500. "I told Ken it was like he was walking between the raindrops," says CGM president Bob Kemp, who oversees sales and marketing at the firm, of the year Heebner had in 2007. "It amazes even us." Last year marked the fourth time since 2000 that the fund returned 45% or better. And it's not as if Heebner has needed the big years to make up for a lot of losses: Launched in late 1997, Focus has had only one money-losing calendar year (2002).
He's one that seeks information rather opinions and one's that known to engage in short-selling too and is described as a true contrarian.


  • Even more remarkable than the raw numbers is how Heebner has earned them. Heebner is a true contrarian, who says he's most confident as an investor "when everyone else thinks I'm nuts." He works long hours trying to identify emerging trends in the economy. When he finds a promising one, he'll go all in, making huge bets on the stocks poised to benefit. Asked how long it takes him to identify those stocks, Heebner answers, "About ten minutes. I've been at this a long time." It's an investing style that will never be taught in business schools and is definitely not something any amateur should try at home. But Heebner, blessed with uncanny instincts, has managed to see around just about every corner in a market that has befuddled just about everyone else.

Identifying emerging trends in the economy!!

( There's a new posting on Cows Don't Trade this morning. It's called Be On The Right Side of The Long Trend. Do give it a read and I am sure you won't be disappointed. )

The Fortune article then continues.

  • A league of his own
    Spend some time with Heebner, and it becomes clear why. His brain is wired differently. His ideas come faster, his focus is more intense, and his ability to sift through massive quantities of information and zero in on what matters is downright spooky. Pity the Salieris of the investing world who have to compete with this guy.

    There's no simple formula that captures his investing principles, and explaining his approach is something even Heebner struggles with - which may be why CGM manages only $13 billion (including private accounts), a relatively modest amount given Heebner's track record. Basically, he's the last of the gunslingers - a go-anywhere manager who can be investing in left-for-dead U.S. value stocks one day and red-hot Brazilian growth stocks the next. But he's not just playing hunches. He knows from years of experience, for example, that when steel scrap prices soar - as they have of late - steel stocks usually follow. And Heebner is a workaholic who's up at 5:30 a.m. reading stock reports and checking business news and who never leaves the office at night without a stack of articles and research that make up his bedtime reading.

    CGM is pretty much a one-man show. Heebner's entire investment team consists of two traders - Elise Schaefer and Sue Small - and Columb, the U2 fan. Being an analyst for Heebner is a bit like being a beauty consultant for Halle Berry, so Columb knows better than to try to suggest stocks. She operates more like a sleuth. Heebner will ask her to dig up the latest information on, say, scrap steel prices in China or deep-sea oil rig leases, and within an hour or two her findings are on his desk.

    These days Heebner is keeping close tabs on the latest economic data out of China, because China is the key to his enormous bet on commodities. As of March, 64% of Focus's assets were invested in commodities-related stocks. His biggest stakes are in steel (ArcelorMittal, Nucor, and United States Steel) and in oil (Apache, Devon Energy, Petrobras, and Schlumberger). Petrobras, the Brazilian oil company that has announced two giant offshore oil discoveries, is his favorite. "Petrobras could become the biggest stock in the world," he says.

    Heebner thinks steel prices could double and oil could blow past $200 a barrel. (He also thinks inflation will hit double digits within the next five years: "I don't know why anyone would buy a bond.") Yet he is constantly on the lookout for any sign that the economic slowdown in the U.S. may be infecting emerging economies abroad. That would deep-six his whole investment thesis, which hinges on China and other emerging nations using more energy and building more infrastructure. "I'm not waiting for Morgan Stanley to tell me there's something wrong in China," Heebner says. "By then it's too late."

LOL! Heebner is obsessed with making money!

  • Jeff Heebner says that his brother has always been a little obsessed with making a buck - even though spending it has never been his thing.

This sounds so like Warren Buffett for Buffett is known for his ambition to make money.

  • "They didn't know him well enough," counters John Henry (a retired Philadelphia businessman, not the Boston Red Sox owner of the same name), who knew Heebner at both Amherst and Harvard. "Ken did march to his own drumbeat, but he was absolutely brilliant. I never, ever doubted that he was going to be a great investor." Henry, himself a long-time shareholder in Heebner's funds, says what first impressed him about Heebner was a little gambit he had going in finance class. Classmates would bring him silver dollars, which Heebner would exchange for dollar bills. Says Henry: "Ken was hoarding silver dollars on the idea that silver was going to keep appreciating, which would eventually force the Treasury to stop issuing new silver coins." And that's exactly what happened. "It was funny as hell - he'd be sitting there with piles of silver dollars on his desk - but Ken had it nailed," Henry says. "He saw something the rest of us didn't. That's Ken - that's always been Ken."

  • In Heebner's early days at Loomis, he was forced to make all his stock picks from a list of 300 names approved by the firm's research department. Heebner was so frustrated by this restriction that he'd occasionally give Lynch stock ideas he wasn't permitted to use himself. Lynch confirms this, adding that in those days he, Heebner, and several other top Boston money managers used to talk stocks at a monthly dinner. Lynch says he even tried to recruit Heebner to Fidelity, an opportunity Heebner says he passed up because he would have been managing separate accounts instead of a mutual fund. "Ken is an incredible fundamental analyst," says Lynch. "He's very thematic, and he stays with things for a very long time, but once he's convinced that something is deteriorating, that's it."

    Lynch says he never really thought of himself as competing with Heebner, but evidently that feeling was not mutual. "The day Peter retired, I thought Ken was going to cry," Hermsdorf says. "Ken thought he was catching up to Peter."



Thursday, July 17, 2008

Barry Ritholtz Lets Rip!

Here's a an extremely interesting piece written by Barry Ritholtz, Idiots Fiddle While Rome Burns

  • The collection of ne'er do wells, clueless dolts, political hacks, and oh, let's just be blunt and call them what they are -- total Idiots -- expands into an ever larger circle.

    While the Republic burns due to the unsavory combination of incompetence, ideological rigidity, and crony capitalism, the fools and assclowns seem ever more determined to avoid any personal responsibility for the damages they have wrought. Instead, they flail about blindly, blaming everything and everyone -- except their own horrific negligence.

    This is financial incompetence writ on a scale far grander than anything seen for centuries.

    As a nation, our institutions have failed us: Under Alan Greenspan, the Federal Reserve slept through the most reckless and irresponsible expansion of bank lending in history for reasons of ideological purity. His opposition to the Fed’s regulatory role reached the point of malfeasance long ago. History is unlikely to be kind to the Maestro.

    There is a choice to be made: Either we regulate the Banks, or leave it to the vagaries of the free markets to punish those who trade with, or place their assets in the wrong institutions. But for God's sake, do not give us the worst of both worlds -- do not allow banks the freedom to make horrific but preventable mistakes (i.e., only lending money to those who can pay it back), but then expect the taxpayers to foot the trillion dollar bill.

    That's not capitalism, its not socialism, its not regulation, and its sure as hell isn't what free markets are. Our language is insufficient to describe this hodge-podge system, other than to call it a random patchwork of quasi-capitalism, quadrennial-socialism, and politics as usual. Ideological idiocy is the only phrase I can muster that has any resonance with the daily insanity.

    We have entered into a fit of Orwellian madness: The American Capitalists, long the globe's leading advocates for free markets, have become near Socialists. Halfway around the world, the Chinese Communists have picked up the baton, and are moving rapidly towards a form of Capitalism. Ironically, it is the once largest communist nations -- the Chinese and the Russians -- who holds much of Fannie and Freddie's paper.

    Hey comrades, who's selling the rope to whom?

    Perhaps the rescue of "Phony and Fraudy" are not so much a bail out of American homeowners as it is a desperate attempt to stay in the good graces of our friendly global bankers. We are the world's largest debtor nation, and as such, we depend upon the kindness of strangers -- be they Japanese or Europeans or Abu Dhabians -- or even former communists.

    Back in the States, something beyond cognitive dissonance is occurring -- this is full blown case of dementia unfolding in the public sphere. When this era of excess and absurdity is treated by historians in the future, the question I expect to be asked most is not why many of these people weren't jailed for their financial felonies. Rather, I expect them to wonder why so many of these folk weren't placed in protective custody, and heavily medicated, for the only rational explanation for their statements and behaviors is that they have gone so far beyond the bend as to be completely and totally insane.

    Massively over-leveraged companies? Blame short sellers.

    Wildly under-capitalized financial firms? Blame rumors.

    Heinously poor corporate management? Blame a Senator.

    It is as if someone is running around Washington D.C. with a ball-peen hammer, smacking senior government officials on their skulls. If you find the standard finger pointing hard to fathom, perhaps blunt head trauma is a better explanations for the absurdities proferred.

    Books will be written about this period of time, and our descendants will wonder in awe as to how this was allowed to happen. Tulips got nothing on us! Its not just the total dollar value of the losses that have exceeded all other global fits of financial madness combined, but rather, how so many warning signs were so blithely ignored by so many and for so long. What was wrong with these people, the authors and historians will wonder. Did the antibiotics in the food supply drive them mad? Did the High Fructose Corn Syrup compromise their ability to think? Some form of viral plague? Roid rage? What else could have created such a mass delusion amongst not just the populace, but their leadership and institutions?

    Indy Mac goes belly up, having lost $900 million this year alone. Its shares fell 87% in 2007 and then its value dropped (on top of last year's collapse) another 95% this year-to-date. The stock fell to 28 cents yesterday. Some estimates of the total bad loans made by this somewhere in the neighborhood of $30 billion dollars -- and the Office of Thrift Supervision blames a senator who is investigating how much of the FDIC's $53 Billion this is going to eat up, with Wall Street estimates ranging from 15% to 30%. The towering incompetence of OTS is incomprehendable, but it is their colossal gall that is truly stupefying.

    From beyond the grave, Adam Smith does not know whether to weep or retch.

Wednesday, July 16, 2008

Stock Chart Of Scan (SCN) Since Listing

Here's the chart of Scan Associates (SCN) since listing.



Yes, it looks like it once traded above 2.30!

As it is now, SCN last traded at 0.09!!!!

More Shocks At Scan's Other 'Financial' News!

If you were shocked reading this morning's posting, Regarding Scan Associates!, you would be even more disappointed at the version posted on Star papers, Scan sees more revenue from abroad

  • SHAH ALAM: Scan Associates Bhd expects its overseas revenue contribution to increase to 40% this year from 30% in 2007.

    Executive director Prof Datuk Dr Norbik Bashah Idris said this was partly supported by the continuous growth of its business in the Middle East.

    “We hope to grow the managed security services (MSS) contribution to our overseas revenue. The majority of our overseas business currently comes from the MSS segment,” he said.

    Norbik said this after an agreement signing yesterday that will see Scan providing MSS to Credit Guarantee Corp Malaysia Bhd (CGC).

    The three-year contract covers network security monitoring services as well as the monitoring of CGC's information and communications technology (ICT) devices.

    “Being chosen by CGC is a testimony of our overall expertise, commitment and reputation as the leading ICT security solutions provider in Malaysia,” Norbik said.

    “The contract with CGC is expected to contribute positively to Scan's bottom line, providing recurring income over the next few years.”

    The MSS division contributed 44% of the group's total revenue last year, up from 25% in 2006. It recorded a subscriber growth of 15% due to strong take-up from the banking, finance and public sectors.

    CGC managing director Datuk Wan Azhar Wan Ahmad said strategic control of information and information technology (IT) infrastructure was critical to CGC's business growth and success.

    “By having a technically sound IT infrastructure and workforce, we will be able to be more customer-centric and focus on enhancing our services further,” he said.

By this article alone, wouldn't the reader gets the impression that perhaps Scan Associates is a gem of a company?

Look at how growth is splashed all over the article!

  • The MSS division contributed 44% of the group's total revenue last year, up from 25% in 2006. It recorded a subscriber growth of 15% due to strong take-up from the banking, finance and public sectors.

No where did it state that Scan Associates lost a whopping 10.4 million for it's first full fiscal year after listing.

No where did it state that Scan Associates lost money for the first quarter of this fiscal year.

No where did it state that for its last report earnings, Scan Associates only had a mere sales revenue (note: revenue and not profits!) of only 3.9 million!

How?

Regarding Scan Associates!

The following article on Business Times caught my attention, SCAN Associates expects quick return to the black


  • SCAN Associates Bhd, a security software provider expects to make a quick return to the black, as well as increase overseas contribution to group sales by as much as 10 per cent this year.

    Currently, some 30 per cent of SCAN's RM25.2 million revenue comes from abroad and the increase is due to expected sales from the Middle East.

    SCAN had sunk to the red last year due to bad debt provisions for a business deal in the Middle East, resulting in the group suffering a net loss of RM10.2 million, versus a net profit of RM10.6 million in the year before.

    Chief technical officer and technology director Datuk Dr Norbik Bashah Idris said SCAN hopes to move stronger in Middle East after forming a partnership with Al Fanar Group, which is among the top 100 companies in Saudi Arabia.

    "The Saudi market is not so much affected by the weak market situation happening in most countries today and the partnership helps to strengthen our presence there," he said in Kuala Lumpur yesterday.

    On the home front, SCAN has bid for some RM25 million worth of projects, but Norbik said the group will review the situation now that the government is cutting down on spending.
Quick return to the black? Eh? This stock was just listed not too long!

Scan was listed on Sept 2006. I know because I was amazed at how folks at RHB were willing to value Scan during its IPO based on a rather optimistic and very generous fy 2007 earnings projections. And due to these generous projections, this small software was granted an extremely rich market valuation of around 115 million soon after listing. The following passage was from RHB's IPO notes on Scan on Sept 2006.

  • Valuations. We project FY12/06-07 net profits to grow at 3.4% and 26.4% respectively underpinned by: 1) Growing ICT security industry; 2) Business focus in high margin ICT security consulting and managed security services; 3) Strong presence in government projects; and 4) Revenue growth in the private sector. Indicative fair value is RM0.77 based on 9x FY07 EPS, in line with our target PERs for Heitech Padu and Mesiniaga but more than 50% below international peers such as Symantec.

For some reason I just could not understand why RHB made such an extremely high growth projections. ( see this forum posting http://sahamas.net/forum10/720.html )

And how ironic now! Scan NOT only did not deliver such a growth but instead it recorded a whopping loss of 10.4 million for its fy 2007!

So could one have seen this mess coming?

Yes, were there indications for the investor?

Did you now after listing on Sept 2006, it reported a loss on May 2007!

No joke!

The third quarterly earnings reported by Scan showed a loss! Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 31/3/2007

And the receivables suck out like a sore thumb! Here is a quick snapshot of its balance sheet.

For a company with a current sales revenue of around 5.95 million, a trade receivables of around 23.209 million is highly suspect!

And the rest was history. Come fy 2007 Q4 earnings,
Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 31/12/2007 , the company said it was 'prudent' and decided to provide for a portion of these receivables!
  • Being prudent, the Group provides allowance for doubtful debts amounted to rM9,945,420 and foreign exchange loss of RM1,644,064 during the year. As a result, the Group has recorded a loss of RM10,410,735. Without such provisions, the group is expected to make a profit of RM1,178,749.

And the following is Scan's last reported earnings, Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 31/3/2008, on May 2008.

As it is, its trade receivables are still insanely high at 15.093 million when you consider the company's extremely smallish sales revenue of 3.9 million!


What if more 'prudent' provision is required?

Consider this, in the first year of listing (2 quarters), Scan said it earned some 10.7 million. How ironic, for the next fiscal year, Scan made provisions of doubtful debts close to 10 million!

Isn't this like wiping out all its earnings?

Let me show you another appalling issue.

Recently there was this article posted on the Daily Edge.
21-04-2008: SCAN sees growth prospects in Middle East
  • 21-04-2008: SCAN sees growth prospects in Middle East
    by Lim Shie-Lynn

    KUALA LUMPUR: MESDAQ-listed SCAN Associates Bhd sees a growth opportunity in the Middle East for its security outsourcing services and managed security services (MSS), its chief executive officer Datuk Aminuddin Baki Esa said.

    Last year, it entered into a joint venture with Saudi-based AlFanar Co to enhance its footprint in the Middle East. The AlFanar group would hold a 51% stake, while SCAN would take up the remaining 49% in the JV.

    Aminuddin said the partnership was pending approval from the Saudi Arabian General Investment Authority. “We are anticipating to receive the approval this month and our target would be to set up the security operations centre (SOC) by June this year.”

    He said the SOC would provide IT security solutions to the Alfanar group and SCAN’s clients in Saudi Arabia. It would also carry out the set up of a data-centre network, application and testing support.

    SCAN would also be entering into a joint venture with a telecommunications company based in the Middle East, where the company’s outsourcing security services would be offered to small-medium industries via its telco partner, Aminuddin told The Edge recently.

    He declined to elaborate on details of the JV but said both companies would be signing a memorandum of understanding in May at the World Congress on Information and Technology in Kuala Lumpur.

    Aminuddin said the business nature in the Middle East provided a window of opportunity for SCAN as there was a tendency for the local manpower to focus mainly in strategic planning and policy development of a company.

    “They leave it to folks like us to develop and manage the IT security infrastructure. As such, we see a higher requirement for our services in the Middle East than in Malaysia,” said Aminuddin.

    Through its expansion into the Middle East, Aminuddin said its overseas contribution to revenue would increase to 60% from its current 30%.

    SCAN is also expanding its MSS services by developing a device management service, called the “NEXUS” initiative, with a Korean partner. The Nexus’ software development is expected to be completed by early next year.

    Aminuddin said NEXUS would provide clients with various operational options such as profiling, data warehousing, data filtering and analysing network surveillance data automatically to further strengthen SCAN’s existing MSS system.

    For the financial year ended Dec 31, 2007, SCAN posted a commendable growth in the MSS segment where revenue grew 18% to RM11.2 million from RM9.5 million in FY06. For 2008, the company is targeting a revenue growth of over 30% from RM11.2 million in 2007 with the NEXUS initiative.

    SCAN has also targeted to go for a global services benchmarking certification, “Global Services 100 Companies” next year that would enable SCAN to gain more exposure internationally, said Aminuddin.

The passage in red is so misleading.

Here is Scan's said quarterly earnings for the financial year ended Dec 31st 2007. Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 31/12/2007

Could someone please tell me what the article is saying?

What revenue growth?

Why didn't the article state that Scan had recorded a whopping loss of 10.4 million?

Why?

Was there an intention to mislead?

Sigh!

Tuesday, July 15, 2008

Shadow of Doubt Over Citigroup's earnings?

The following passage from the following article on Bloomberg News, Citigroup's $1.1 Trillion of Mysterious Assets Shadows Earnings caught my attention.

  • July 14 (Bloomberg) -- At an investor presentation in May, Citigroup Inc. Chief Executive Officer Vikram Pandit said shrinking the bank's $2.2 trillion balance sheet, the biggest in the U.S., was a cornerstone of his turnaround plan.

    Nowhere mentioned in the accompanying 66-page handout were the additional $1.1 trillion of assets that New York-based Citigroup keeps off its books: trusts to sell mortgage-backed securities, financing vehicles to issue short-term debt and collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs, to repackage bonds.

    Now, as Citigroup prepares to announce second-quarter results July 18, those off-balance-sheet assets, used by U.S. banks to expand lending without tying up capital, are casting a shadow over earnings. Since last September, at least $100 billion of assets have flooded back onto Citigroup's balance sheet, accompanied by more than $7 billion of losses.

    ``If you start adding up all the potential exposures, it's a huge number,'' said Sam Golden, a former ombudsman for the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency who now heads the financial-industry practice for restructuring adviser Alvarez & Marsal in Houston. ``The banks will say that it was disclosed. Investors are saying, `Yeah, but it was cryptic. We really didn't know what you were telling us.'''

    U.S. banks already are reeling from more than $165 billion of writedowns and credit losses, so shareholders are wary of unknown obligations that might force them to take responsibility for additional troubled assets. The risks have become so obvious that accounting officials are proposing new rules -- some of which Citigroup opposes -- that would force many assets back onto balance sheets.

    On the Hook

    Seven of the biggest U.S. banks, including Citigroup, are on the hook for at least $300 billion of credit and liquidity guarantees for off-balance-sheet loans and bonds, according to a June 30 report from consulting firm RiskMetrics Group Inc. in Rockville, Maryland. Such guarantees were remote when pledged as an inducement to bond buyers. Now, the first year-over-year decline in housing prices since the Great Depression and rising home-loan, commercial-mortgage and credit-card delinquencies have begun to trigger them.

    ``You will rapidly realize what a farce these off-balance- sheet things are,'' said Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. analyst Richard X. Bove. ``You could pick up a lot of loan losses with the stuff you're putting back on.''

    It's impossible to predict what the losses might be from off-the-books assets or liabilities because disclosures are thin relative to what is required for balance-sheet assets, said Neri Bukspan, chief accountant for Standard & Poor's in New York.

    ``A lot of information tends to disappear or becomes second or third class,'' Bukspan said.
    Second-Quarter Loss

    Citigroup has had to bail out at least nine investment funds in the past year, including seven structured investment vehicles, or SIVs, whose funding withered. The bank had to assume $45 billion of securities from those SIVs, which are now included in the $400 billion of on-balance-sheet assets Pandit says he's trying to unload in the next three years.

    The bank probably will report a second-quarter net loss of $3.7 billion later this week, according to the average estimate of seven analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. A loss would be the company's third straight and add to $15 billion of losses recorded during the previous two quarters.

    Citigroup plunged 69 percent in the past year in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. It closed at $16.19 on July 11, down 52 percent from April 6, 1998, when Citicorp agreed to form the modern company by merging with Sanford ``Sandy'' Weill's Travelers Group Inc.

    JPMorgan, Merrill

    JPMorgan Chase & Co., which has more than $400 billion of off-balance-sheet assets, also reports second-quarter results this week. The New York-based bank, the largest U.S. bank by market value, may say second-quarter profit fell 55 percent to $1.9 billion, analysts estimate.

    Merrill Lynch & Co., the third-biggest U.S. securities firm by market value, also reports results this week. New York-based Merrill had to buy about $4.9 billion of mortgage-linked assets last year from an off-balance-sheet financing vehicle, resulting in a $170 million loss. It may post a second-quarter loss of $1.56 billion after reporting about $14 billion of net losses in the previous three quarters, according to a Bloomberg survey of 11 analysts.

    ``The riskiest assets we had, our CDOs, weren't even on our balance sheet,'' Merrill Chief Executive Officer John Thain said on a June 11 conference call with investors. Merrill would have to provide $15 billion in financing for CDOs and related obligations under a ``severe stress scenario,'' according to a Merrill regulatory filing published in May.

    VIEs, QSPEs

    The Financial Accounting Standards Board, the five-member panel in Norwalk, Connecticut, that sets U.S. accounting rules, voted earlier this year to eliminate ``qualifying special- purpose entities,'' or QSPEs, a category of off-balance sheet financing exempted from tighter standards enacted following the collapse of U.S. energy trader Enron Corp. FASB also plans to clamp down on ``variable interest entities,'' or VIEs, that banks used when their vehicles couldn't qualify as QSPEs. And it voted June 11 to force banks to consolidate off-balance-sheet assets whenever an ``obligation to absorb losses can potentially be significant.''

    Banks are required to disclose their off-balance-sheet assets in annual reports. According to Citigroup's most recent financial statement, filed in May, the bank's $1.1 trillion of off-the-books assets as of March 31 included $760 billion of QSPEs and $363 billion of unconsolidated VIEs.

Oh Freddie Mac

There were many who were clearly unhappy to see the bailout of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.

Jim Rogers was clearly annoyed. Published on the UK Telegraph,
Jim Rogers attacks Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac bail-out


  • Reaction to the Treasury and the Federal Reserve's bail-out plan was mixed but Mr Rogers was the most vocal. He argued that Fannie and Freddie, America's largest mortgage finance companies which own or guarantee some $5 trillion of mortgage debt, are "basically insolvent".

    He said: "I don't know where these guys get the audacity to take out money, taxpayer money, and buy stock in Fannie Mae." He added that the US government should instead have allowed Fannie and Freddie to go bankrupt.

And here is a link to a Bloomberg video, http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vIQvD7yNni2I.asf

George Soros wasn't too impressed either.

  • "Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae have a solvency crisis, not a liquidity crisis," said Soros. "There's no problem in their borrowing. And in fact, insofar as there is a problem, the Fed is there to provide the liquidity."

    That said, both Fannie and Freddie are "extremely leveraged," he said.

    "The deterioration in the housing market, the foreclosures, are going to cause losses which exceed their equity," said Soros, whose famous bet against the British pound earned his Quantum Fund $1 billion in 1992.

    In afternoon trade on Monday, Fannie Mae shares were down 3.75 percent while Freddie Mac shares were down 12 percent.

    "This is a very serious financial crisis and it is the most serious financial crisis of our lifetime," Soros said. "It is inevitable that it is affecting the real economy. It is an idle dream to think that you could have this kind of crisis without the real economy being affected," he added.

The ideal dream mentioned by Mr. Soros, reminded me of the following passage I had read from iCapital.

  • While the current US housing contraction has caused plenty of fears and worries, not just in the US but throughout the whole world, most do not realise that the direct impact of the housing contraction on the broad US economy has actually been rather limited. A lot of the damage has been at the psychological level. This is due partly to the fact that house prices, which have risen substantially, have been dropping recently. Another factor has been the constant media attention given to scary forecasts that the current housing contraction is the worst since the 1930 Great Depression and that this time round, it could be headed that way. Fortunately, the facts of the matter do not support such a negative view.

Facts of matter do not support such a negative view? Hmm.. I wonder if George Soros is referring to such ideal dreams from iCapital.

And yes, Warren Buffett used to own Freddie Mac. And the following passage from this past WashingtonPost article is most interesting.

  • Buffett said he was troubled in part by a Freddie Mac investment that had nothing to do with its business.

    "I follow the old dictum: There's never just one cockroach in the kitchen," Buffett said.

    The government is trying to show that Brendsel's promises of double-digit earnings growth set Freddie Mac on a dangerous path, and Buffett said they were another key reason he sold.

    Sometimes, when executives offer earnings projections and cannot make the numbers, "they start making up the numbers," he said.

    Trying to deliver smoothly increasing earnings "can lead to a lot of trouble in any company," and it is "unachievable" at a company like Freddie Mac, whose business is inherently unpredictable, Buffett testified........

    Buffett said he bought stock in Freddie Mac in the 1980s because "it looked ridiculously cheap." He said his company became one of Freddie Mac's largest shareholders before it began liquidating its stake in the late 1990s at an eventual profit of about $2.75 billion.

    Buffett said he met with Brendsel and former Freddie Mac president David W. Glenn five or six times over the years at Brendsel's request, initially at a summer house Buffett had in Laguna Beach, Calif. Brendsel requested and followed some of his recommendations on whom Freddie Mac should appoint to its board, Buffett said.

    Buffet said he became troubled when Freddie Mac made an investment unrelated to its mission. He wasn't clear on the specifics but said he "didn't think that made any sense at all" and "was concerned about what they might be doing . . . that I didn't know about."

    Achieving "mid-teens" earnings growth "seemed to become more and more a mantra of the organization," giving him greater cause for concern, Buffett said.

    Buffett said he reviewed Freddie Mac's annual reports every year he held stock in the company. Presented with excerpts from reports for as early as 1992, he agreed with Brendsel's lead attorney, Kevin M. Downey, that he held onto his shares while Freddie Mac repeatedly affirmed its earnings goals.

    Buffett said he thought he expressed his concern to Brendsel in several conversations but added that he didn't keep notes or a diary and couldn't recall details.

    Downey said the specific wording about mid-teens earnings growth did not appear in a disclosure Freddie Mac filed in 2001, but Buffett rejected the implicit suggestion that Brendsel was responding appropriately to his concern.

    "He may have seen the writing on the wall," Buffett said.

    Downey suggested that Freddie Mac properly tempered its projections, pointing to warnings in an annual report that its earnings could be affected by various adverse developments. Buffett said the cautionary words were merely legal boilerplate.

    "I would not be particularly impressed by them," he said.

    Asked by the judge, William B. Moran, whether he felt his concerns were vindicated, Buffett said, "I think they were fully vindicated."

MK Land Denies The Privatisation Story

As expected MK Land made a clear denial to the privatisation rumours published on Business Times. See posting, Yet Another Privatisation Story! This Time MK Land!

Trading volume on 10th July 2008 was 18,996 and on the trading volume on the 11th July was a mere 12,496 million. And many thanks to this malicious, baseless rumour published on Business Times, trading volume surged to an incredible 113,720.

Tell me, how can one not be suspicious if that news article was not published to facilitate heavy trading for some unknown party for their own vested interests? Yes, would it be wrong for one to accuse that the press was used as a tool to illegally promote a stock?

Of course readers should exercise caution on such article(s) which refuses to give any credibility to their articles by not naming their sources.

But this happening way too often and it really gives our financial press a bad name. Heck, I feel ashamed just reading such news! Don't you?

Monday, July 14, 2008

Yet Another Privatisation Story! This Time MK Land!

I read with utter disgust as yet another privatisation rumours being splashed over our financial papers!

What's wrong with these people??

Posted on Business Times:
MK Land to be taken private?


  • TAN Sri Mustapha Kamal Abu Bakar, a co-founder of MK Land Holdings Bhd, may take the troubled property developer private as part of plans to turn it around, a source close to him said.

    The businessman holds 47.4 per cent of MK Land and he has taken over the company's leadership as chief executive on June 25.

    He replaces his partner Datuk P. Kasi who was redesignated as a non-executive director. Kasi holds 25.4 per cent of MK Land.

    "As a majority stakeholder of MK Land, it's logical for him to come back and return the company to the black," the source said.

    Mustapha could not be reached for comment.

    However, it is learnt that he will study the company's situation before making major moves.

    Contractors and consultants for some of MK Land's projects are expected to be called for a meeting soon.

    "After leaving MK Land for so long, Mustapha Kamal wants to study the nitty-gritty of the company," the source said.

    In May, MK Land asked its bondholders for permission to delay debt repayments by up to a year.

    The company had in 2001 and 2002 issued two tranches of RM150 million each of serial bonds, with the final maturities due in August this year and September 2009.

    MK Land said it was seeking an indulgence from bondholders to defer payments for a total of RM60 million to two separate sinking fund accounts.

Yet another article written based on sources who are unnamed!

So let me ask a simple question, how do we know if this yet another grandmother story cooked up by a certain party to drive the stock higher?

As it is, MK Land is a troubled company. The following news article was published on May MK Land’s share price falls to 52-week low

  • MK Land Holdings Bhd’s share price fell to a 52-week low of 34 sen yesterday, following news it might defer its obligation to place RM60 million into sinking fund accounts (SFA) for bonds totalling RM300 million.

And their last reported earnings in May was terrible. Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 31/3/2008

As it is, MK Land has lost some 18 million for the first 3 quarter of the current fiscal year and the company has a mountain of debts in its balance sheet. Would Tan Sri Mustapha Kamal Abu Bakar take this company now given the terrible state the company is in?

Well at the rate of these stories are being published and no much action are taken against such reporting, pretty soon our financial news would conjur an article stating that perhaps Bursa Malaysia could be privatised too! Yeah, why not? According to sources what.

Are you still not watching SC? Do you even know who are all these sources?

-------

ps. I usually read about companies being taken private because the owners felt the company was worth so much more as a private entity. As it is, I reckon not for MK Land!

Friday, July 11, 2008

Selling A Stock: Denial And Loss

Here's a great article saved in my computer. I do not have the link. Sorry.

------------------------------

Denial and loss
Posted on 24th September 2005
by Chetan Parikh

In an investment classic “It’s When You Sell That Counts”, the author, Donald L. Cassidy, writes about the problems associated with the decision to sell.

“The process of deciding to sell a stock is a difficult one at best unless an investor has developed a discipline or methodology and adheres to it faithfully to avoid inevitable internal mental battles. When a loss is involved, the sell decision is even more difficult because the issue of pain avoidance is now present. It is human nature to seek self-preservation, and pain signals to us a danger to our well-­being. Some investors may be obsessed with safety, while most are reasonably bal­anced in their tolerance of the risks involved in seeking to earn a profit. But every investor has some threshold at which pain must be avoided, sometimes at ridiculous cost.

One of the most convenient ways to avoid the pain of loss - or even of profit squandered - is denial. Dealing with an investment or trading loss involves not only financial pain but also ego pain, a blow to our self-sense of value. A majority of stockholders at some point attempt to avoid both pains by failing to deal with the reality of their losses. They prefer not to think about it, or they minimize it. When specific stock positions go bad, the pain avoider becomes a longer-term holder, who is more accurately a collector of stocks. He has no real investment motive or astuteness of value judgment and is, in fact, simply denying the pain of potential (or already apparent) loss.

Unfortunately, most investment brokers are of very little or no help to their clients in dealing with losses - they are unwilling or unable to break down client denial or avoidance behavior. Part of brokers' inability to help stems from the bias of their training, which is strongly focused on gathering new assets and then persuading clients to buy, not sell, securities. But the broker problem goes much further.

The broker, too, as a human being is a pain avoider. He or she needs to re­main on cordial and constructive terms with clients. A successful sales person must listen to customers and act on all resulting feedback. So, naturally, when a customer indicates an unwillingness to deal with losses, his or her broker hears that message loud and clear-and heeds it. An unspoken contract between investor and broker develops: "I will not complain about my problem if you will please do me the favor of not reminding me of it."

There are several rationalizations that investors use to deny losses, or the im­portance of their losses. One relies on the rubric of the U.S. Tax Code. Investors are well aware that, for tax purposes, no loss is recognized as having occurred until a closing transaction actually takes place (and the 31-day "wash-sale rule" is not vio­lated). Using this tax reality as a psychological crutch, many investors actually talk themselves into believing that they do not have a loss until they actually take one. On objective examination, of course, such reasoning is absurd. Few such investors, holding a pleasant 200 percent paper gain, would say they have no profit!

It is, of course, possible that price might recover and today's paper loss might be reduced or recovered-or might even become a paper (or real) profit in the fu­ture. But the truth is that if the stock is quoted below what was paid, there is a loss of capital because wealth is measured by the current value of assets less liabilities. Liquidate investments under duress, value an estate, or switch investments to obtain maximum current income from available assets, and reality prevails. A stock is cur­rently worth only what it can be sold for now-not what it was bought for, what the owner wishes it would be, or what he thinks it should sell for. If current price is be­low cost, a loss exists. Period.

If an investor is too smart or too logical to attempt self-deception with the "paper-loss-isn't-real" farce, he may rely instead on a less disprovable assertion: the stock will come back given enough patience. Hope springs eternal, and once in a great while a terrible loser does reverse and rise phoenix like from the ashes. Then, the investor who has sold out at a loss and later sees the price recover says, "See, if only I'd been smarter or more patient and followed my instinct and held on, I would not have had that loss."

Closing out a position, especially when at a loss, represents the process of coming to closure.Optimistic by nature, we prefer to see our options remain open rather than have them closed off. Buying a stock involves the grand opening of new possibilities, but selling closes the final chapter. Many clo­sure processes in our lives carry sadness: graduating from and leaving our alma mater, admitting a failed marriage via divorce, burying a departed friend, cleaning out great-grandmother's attic. These represent some pretty heavy baggage, of a kind we'd prefer to avoid lifting if possible. Selling a stock conjures up such feelings, at least at a subconscious level. Holding it allows us potential for greater profit or re­claiming a current loss. If our stock is down, selling brands us with a sign of failure, which we'd like to avoid.

Actually placing a sell order and taking the loss on a final basis goes even further in that it sets up our investor for a second source of pain by being "wrong again": watching the stock move higher without being on board for its recovery. This possi­ble double horror show can be avoided by refusing to take the loss in the first place, says the denier.

What psychologists call denial is, in the investment arena, an umbrella de­scription for a variety of rationalizations and self-deceptions. All are designed to al­low possessors of losing investments to justify doing nothing about them.

There are several variations on the denial theme. One springs from the mem­ory of the purchase price, the highest price ever reached, or the best achieved since purchase. Old best price levels can each act as a high-water mark that becomes a once-was, a could-be-again, a should-be, then a will-be, and all too often a gotta-be. It does not matter how many months or years ago that high-water mark was made. It does not matter that the company's fundamentals or general market psychology has been eroded seriously. It does not matter that a rise of several hundred percent from current prices may be necessary for full recovery. To avoid accepting and dealing with the loss, the denier waits (and waits and waits some more) for recovery, denying the long adverse odds.”

The ScuttleBug Approach

How does one get a more accurate picture of the strength and weakness of a company?

Both Mary Buffett and P. Fisher talks about the scuttlebutt approach.

  • Fisher : 'It is amazing what an accurate picture of the relative points of strength and weakness of each company in an industry can be obtained from a representative cross-section of the opinions of those who in one way or another are concerned with any particular company'.

    This is an investigative technique in which the prospective investor calls the competition and customers of a business and asks them about the company in question.

    Accordingly Buffett actually gets on the phone and calls the competition and asks them what they think of a particular company. All one would need to do is to spend some time in the library reading and make a few phone calls. Don't be shy. After all, it is your money, and if you are not willing to do at least a little work on your investment decisions, then it probably wouldn't be your money for very long. (M.Buffett, chapter 18, Buffettology)

    According to Fisher, the business 'grapevine' is a remarkable thing. And most people, particularly if they feel sure there is no danger of their being quoted, like to talk about the field of work in which they are engaged in and will talk rather freely about their competitors. Go to five companies in a industry, ask each of them intelligent questions about the points of strength and weakness of the other four, and nine of ten a surprisingly detailed and accurate picture of all five will emerge.

Here are some of my views.

The scuttlebutt approach ultimately gives us only the impression of a company's business. It's a perception which is not backed by any financial facts.

For example, a visit to any market would tell us that eggs sells like hot cakes in any market. But is eggs a good business to be in?

Now if we don't take a look at the financial data of the company itself, we would never know the true profitability of the business. For example, a look at any of the poultry financial data would only show that they are managed in a poor manner. Capex is spend way beyond what the earnings can actually bring in.

These stuff can't be known via scuttle butting alone.

However, on the other hand, if a company reports great set of earnings and let's assume that for example, company ABC claims that their products is generating million in sales. However if an investigative scuttlebutt approach gives one a totally different impression because the visits to ABC stores paints a totally different picture, a business that's rather quiet and worse still the stores salesperson compounds the issue more by issuing conflicting views by stating that business has been rather poor. So in this instance, the scuttlebutt contradicts ABC financial data. And if this is the case, shouldn't one have doubts over the company's financial data?

Speaking to employees is a good scuttlebutt approach but it has its limitations because the integrity of the employee is in doubt too! This is because all kind of folks exist and if we are not lucky, we could run into a big talker who gives us nothing but distorted information! Or what the possibility that the employee we talked to has a personal vendetta against the company? And what about the position of the employee? Is it safe to assume the higher the position in the management level, the more accurate the information we will get?

So for me, the danger of scuttle butting is the accuracy of our scuttlebutt itself. Just how accurate is our info? And not forgetting our own ability to decipher the info accurately ourselves.

In conclusion, I do agree that the scuttlebutt is a good exercise to do but it should not be abused, for it has its limitations. Meaning to say, I reckon that one should not base their investment decisions solely on scuttle butting.

Thursday, July 10, 2008

Puplava's Who Should You Believe?

FinancialSense's market commentator, Chris Puplava, has written a very good piece today called Who Should You Believe?

  • Those most pessimistic on the economy and stock market have been proven right over and over again over the last year and a half, with those who listened to their calls for caution preserving their wealth instead of watching it evaporate, which has been the fate of those following the permabulls. Wall St. economists, financial pundits, and government talking heads have been dead wrong and led many astray, though what has been most surprising is that investors continue to follow the advice of those who didn’t even see this train wreck coming, with examples provided below. (click here for rest of the article )

Wednesday, July 09, 2008

Tribute to Sir John Templeton


As a tribute to one of the great investing legend,
Sir John Templeton who had just passed away, here's a compilation of articles written on the legend.

Quote: "A $10,000 investment in the storied Templeton Growth Fund (TEPLX) in 1954 would have grown to $2 million by 1992, when Templeton sold his company to Franklin Resources, (BEN) the San Mateo, Calif.-based fund giant."

  • By LINDSAY THOMPSON

    Guardian Business Editor

    lthompson@nasguard.com

    Months after the luxury liner Titanic sank off Newfoundland in 1912 with several millionaires on board, on a small farm town in Tennessee, John Templeton, who was to become one of the wealthiest investors in Bahamian history, was born.

    Citing hard work as the key to his success, Sir John Templeton, 91, started at the tender age of six in his backyard.

    On a cool Saturday morning in the comfort of his office at the Templeton Foundation, which houses Templeton Global Advisors Ltd., at Lyford Cay, Sir John told The Guardian how he obtained his wealth and his status as an international business icon.

    "At six years old, I said I want to earn some money, so my mother set aside a small piece of garden and told me to grow whatever I wanted to grow and sell it at the grocery store.

    "So my first joy was earning money, and saving money is the second thing; hard work and thrift."

    Sir John said people do not save enough money; it was always his plan to save 50 cents of every dollar he earned. Eventually, he invested in the stock market and "although you don't get rich quickly that way, by the time you're 91, you do."

    His name has become synonymous with business, finance and investments, the latter not so much any more, because his focus has shifted to exploring spiritual wealth and the purpose of being.

    For more than 30 years, he has shared his talent and success with The Bahamas, a place he calls home.

    Asked why did he decided to invest in The Bahamas, he said:

    "Thirty-one years ago, I investigated all the places in the world, very attractive places and decided that the Lyford Cay (Club) in The Bahamas was the most attractive place on earth."

    As to what made him decide to start investment management fund, Templeton Growth Ltd., in 1954, Sir John simply said he was searching for ways to invest outside his country, as he always advises young people to do.

    "I recommend to all young people, to try hard and find out how they can be most beneficial to humanity. The talent I seemed to have is to be able to help people to invest outside their own nation."

    When Sir John entered Yale University, he met many wealthy people and for the first time became acquainted with those who owned shares.

    "But during that time there were all these shares in just one nation. So I thought that if I could become an expert and help people who have some assets to invest worldwide, that would produce better results in the long run; why limit themselves in one area."

    Sir John studied economics at Yale and earned a degree at Oxford, and eventually landed a job on Wall Street at a stock-brokerage firm. His job entailed advising wealthy families on how to select the right investments outside America.

    "I did that nights and days for 50 years and towards the end of that time I decided that while I was helping a few thousand wealthy families, I wasn't going to have the tremendous benefit to humanity in the long run. So I gradually decided that I would sell out all businesses totally, 12 years ago, and since then I have been busier than I have ever been in my life."

    In October, 1992, the Templeton funds were acquired by the Franklyn Group for $440 million.

    Sir John now dedicates his time to trying to change attitudes toward discoveries. He was amazed that "no religion has been enthusiastic about new discoveries... they all look back at ancient scriptures and prophets."

    This led Sir John to set up three foundations worldwide to facilitate scientists in making discoveries of a spiritual nature.

    For Sir John, there are no major regrets in his career, other than that "no one" has found ways to increase spiritual information. He wished he had started back in his garden at age six, instead of growing vegetables, to discover why he was created, why he was human.

    "Nobody ever explained it to me," he said. "I used to look up at the stars and wondered why they existed."

    Sir John no longer considers himself an investment expert, but as the industry becomes more challenging, he advises that this is the time to "play it safe."

    "Nowhere in my lifetime has there been a period when it has been so hard to find a share to buy at a bargain price. When I started to do this in 1936, there were only 17 professional security analysts on earth. Now, the Society of Security Analysts has 32,000 official members in the United States alone.

    "So, at the same time, if you are thrifty and save money, you have to put it somewhere, in real estate, gold, bank accounts or in shares, which is probably the best investment in the long run."

    When asked what is the most significant change since he came to The Bahamas, Sir John said it is that progress is so rapid.

    "More books have been printed in the last 20 years, more has been discovered in medicine in the last 50 years... that is speeding up in The Bahamas, too."

    "These 31 years in The Bahamas have been absolutely amazing in every way. The number of people who have been educated is amazing; when I came here, few people had a radio or a television set, and certainly, nobody had a computer.

    "Also, the prosperity has been wonderful, the whole world has become more prosperous. People in The Bahamas were very poor when I came here."

    Sir John said the country should welcome impending world trading blocs such as Free Trade Area of the Americas and the World Trade Organisation, as the prospects look beneficial for The Bahamas.

    "Discoveries are being made in all industries all over the world and The Bahamas can't make those discoveries itself; it has to learn from other people. The Bahamas should try harder to get information by television, radio and the Internet. The Bahamas should have young people study everything worldwide and prepare themselves to be leaders, not just in one nation, but worldwide."

    Caption TALKING BUSINESS – Sir John Templeton, founder of the Templeton Foundation, speaks to Guardian business editor Lindsay Thompson at his office in Lyford Cay. Staff photo by Donald Knowles

    Posted: Monday December 22, 2003

Here's another.

Sir John Templeton, the founder of the Templeton organization (i.e., Templeton Global Investment Funds) is widely regarded as one of the pioneers of global investing. He has retired from active management of the Templeton funds, but has left managers who follow these 16 immortal principles of his investment process:

  • 1. If you begin with a prayer, you can think more clearly and make fewer mistakes.
  • 2. Outperforming the market is a difficult task. The challenge is not simply making better investment decisions than the average investor. The real challenge is making investment decisions that are better than those of the professionals who managed the big institutions.
  • 3. Invest---don't trade or speculate. The stock market is not a casino, but if you move in and out of stocks every time they move a point or two, the market will be your casino. And you may lose eventually---or frequently.
  • 4. Buy Value, not market trends or the economic outlook. Ultimately, it is the individual stocks that determine the market, not vice versa. Individual stocks can rise in a bear market and fall in a bull market. So buy individual stocks, not the market trend or the economic outlook.
  • 5. When buying stocks, search for bargains among quality stocks. Determining quality in a stock is like reviewing a restaurant. You don't expect it to be 100% perfect, but before it gets three or four stars you want it to be superior.
  • 6. Buy low. So simple in concept. So difficult in execution. When prices are high, a lot of investors are buying a lot of stocks. Prices are low when demand is low. Investors have pulled back, people are discouraged and pessimistic. But, if you buy the same securities everyone else is buying, you'll have the same results as everyone else. By definition, you can't outperform the market.
  • 7. There's no free lunch. Never invest on sentiment. Never invest solely on a tip. You would be surprised how many investors do exactly this. Unfortunately there is sometimes compelling about a tip. Its very nature suggests inside information, a way to turn a fast profit.
  • 8. Do your homework or hire wise experts to help you. People will tell you: investigate before you invest. Listen to them. Study companies to learn what makes them successful.
  • 9. Diversify---by company, by industry. In stocks and bonds, there is safety in numbers. No matter how careful you are, you can neither predict nor control the future. So you must diversify.
  • 10. Invest for maximum total real return. This means the return after taxes and inflation. This is the only rational objective for most long-term investors.
  • 11. Learn from your mistakes. The only way to avoid mistakes is not to invest---which is the biggest mistake of all. So forgive yourself for your errors and certainly don't try to recoup your losses by taking bigger risks. Instead, turn each mistake into a learning experience.
  • 12. Aggressively monitor your investments. Remember, no investment is forever. Expect and react to change. And there are no stocks that you can buy and forget. Being relaxed doesn't mean being complacent.
  • 13. An investor who has all the answers doesn't even understand all the questions. A cocksure approach to investing will lead, probably sooner than later, to disappointment if not outright disaster. The wise investor recognizes that success is a process of continually seeking answers to new questions.
  • 14. Remain flexible and open-minded about types of investment. There are times to buy blue-chip stocks, cyclical stocks, convertible bonds, and there are times to sit on cash. The fact is there is no one kind of investment that is always best.
  • 15. Don't panic. Sometimes you won't have sold when everyone is selling, and you will be caught in a market crash. Don't rush to sell the next day. Instead, study your portfolio. If you can't find more attractive stocks, hold on to what you have.
  • 16. Do not be fearful or negative too often. There will, of course, be corrections, perhaps even crashes. But over time our studies indicate, stocks do go up...and up...and up. In this century or the next, it's still "Buy low, sell high."

Here's an interview with Sir John Templeton.

  • Interview with Sir John Templeton
    by Eleanor Laise
    1 April 2004 SmartMoney

    Sir John Speaks --- He bought low during the Depression, sold high during the Internet boom and made more than a few good calls in between; Sir John Templeton, dean of contrarians, tells us where to invest now

    Spend five minutes in Sir John Templeton's offices and you'll learn a lot about the legendary value investor. It's not the imposing portrait, the honorary degrees or even the certificate of knighthood. It's the books. Crisis Investing shares shelf space with Eat Right for Your Type. The Hand of God sits near Invest for Retirement and Natural Capitalism. Several thick volumes occupy substantial real estate on the top shelf. An investing bible? No -- it's the 1991 edition of the London Central Yellow Pages.

    A 1934 Yale graduate and Rhodes scholar, Templeton has a voracious appetite for information. The small-town Tennessee native became known as the Marco Polo of his Oxford class, thanks to a round-the-world postgraduation jaunt. In his late 20s he opened his own money-management firm and began to put international investing on the map. His flagship Templeton Growth fund has posted a 13.8 percent annualized return over 50 years, well ahead of the Standard & Poor's 500's 11.1 percent.

    Templeton's track record is full of prescient moves. In 1978, when Ford was near bankruptcy, he was a buyer. When everyone else piled into tech in 2000, he was a seller.

    Though he now lives in Lyford Cay, a decidedly well-heeled corner of the Bahamas, Templeton maintains a surprisingly modest lifestyle. He tools around at the wheel of a Lincoln Town Car. Orchids and bougainvillea upstage his whitewashed home. It's the ideal setting for a quiet retirement, but that's not Templeton's cup of tea. Since Franklin Resources bought his funds in 1992 for $440 million, he has devoted most of his time to philanthropy. The John Templeton Foundation gives $40 million a year to projects that explore the intersection of science and religion. Templeton's longtime philanthropic efforts earned the naturalized British citizen a knighthood in 1987. In his spare time, he hunts for global bargains, and at 91, he's clearly as curious as ever. As SmartMoney sat down in his cluttered conference room, it was Templeton who fired off the first question: "Have you written any books I can read?" Well, no. But enough about us.

    ---

    SmartMoney: How did a kid from rural Tennessee become a pioneer of global value investing?

    John Templeton: In Tennessee I didn't meet anybody who owned a share of anything. At Yale there were hundreds of boys from wealthy families, but not a single one who was investing outside one nation. I thought that was just not sensible. Surely they'd get better results if they searched everywhere rather than limiting their search to one country. Then I investigated the investment counsel profession and couldn't find any investment counselor who specialized in helping people invest outside America. So I saw a wide-open opportunity.

    ---

    Q: In 1939 you bought $100 worth of every New York Stock Exchange listed stock that was trading under $1 per share. There were 104 names, and 37 were already in bankruptcy. Why did you do it?

    John Templeton: I was sitting in my office at 30 Rockefeller Plaza in Manhattan when the news came out that Hitler had invaded Poland. It was obvious within a few days that it was going to lead to the Second World War. During war, everything that was in surplus, and therefore unprofitable, becomes scarce and profitable. Three years later I had a profit on 100 out of the 104.

    ---

    Q: What signs helped you see that the U.S. technology bubble was about to burst back in 2000?

    John Templeton: If you want to have a better performance than the crowd, you must do things differently from the crowd. Four years ago the crowd was piling into tech stocks. The prices went sky-high. I sold my clients' technology stocks, and sold a lot of them short. I have put these philosophies into a simple statement: Help people. When people are desperately trying to sell, help them and buy. When people are enthusiastically trying to buy, help them and sell.

    ---

    Q: That's a good way to look at it.

    John Templeton: That's mainly a joke.

    ---

    Q: In 1992 you predicted that "the next 10 years will be the happiest period, and the most progressive," with "rapidly increasing prosperity for both Europe and America." Are you as optimistic about the next decade?

    John Templeton: Very few people realize how fortunate we are to live in the most glorious period in world history. There has been more progress in prosperity than in any previous century. The Dow Jones Industrial Average never went above 100 until a century ago. Now it's up to 10700, a hundredfold increase in one century. Probably in the next century, the increase will be equally great, if not greater. But I have to say that we are starting from an unusually high price for shares, not just in one industry, but in practically all industries and all nations.

    ---

    Q: What is your view of current U.S. stock valuations?

    John Templeton: Over the next five years, the chances are about 50/50 that the stock market will be lower. There is a risk that stock indexes will go down by over 30 percent or they'll go up 30 percent. Share prices are remarkably high right now. The Nasdaq Composite index is trading at 36 times next year's earnings and 95 times last year's earnings. That's high. For most of my lifetime I found bargains one place or another below 12 times earnings.

    ---

    Q: How does this environment compare with the market of 1972, when the Dow regained its late '60s highs of around 1000 but didn't break through that level again until 1982?

    John Templeton: That was a period of stock market optimism, which goes in cycles. There are at least five of these cycles every century. The one in those years you mentioned was a normal cycle. This one seems to be more exaggerated. Prices in those years never went as high as they are now.

    ---

    Q: Are there any sectors in the U.S. that look cheap?

    John Templeton: No. I wish there were, but I can't find them. The answer is to play safe. And playing safe means diversifying among nations, industries and types of securities. At present I don't think anybody should have over half their assets in common stock.

    ---

    Q: And you believe that no one should have more than 50 percent of his or her portfolio in a single country?

    John Templeton: Yes. And no more than 25 percent in one industry.

    ---

    Q: Do you think there is a real estate bubble in the U.S.?

    John Templeton: Yes. Real estate is very different from the stock market because it's so local and separate in terms of type. But in many locations and many types of real estate, prices are dangerously high right now. And in real estate it's easier to say what's dangerously high. You just look at what it costs to rebuild. Right here in the Bahamas, I have recently seen people pay four or five times for a house what it would cost to rebuild.

    ---

    Q: Do U.S. bonds look more attractive than equities?

    John Templeton: Compared to the cost of living [measured by inflation], you can still buy American bonds. But at present there are bonds of other nations that seem safer. It's wise to invest in nations that do not have an unfavorable balance of trade or a government deficit.

    ---

    Q: Which countries seem the safest?

    John Templeton: There are not many. There are almost 200 nations on earth and about 150 different currencies, and most of them have problems even greater than America's. But Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea, New Zealand, Australia and Russia don't have big problems.

    ---

    Q: A few years ago you were buying STRIPs, or Treasury bonds with the coupons cut off. Do you still like them?

    John Templeton: I bought STRIPs because the yield to maturity was about 10 percent better than what you could get on Treasury bonds. But I found I did better by changing from U.S. Treasury STRIPs to STRIPs of nations with stronger currencies, like the ones we just talked about.

    ---

    Q: Where do you think the U.S. dollar will go from here?

    John Templeton: The chances of the U.S. dollar going down in relation to the euro are no more than 50/50. The euro has already gone up 47 percent in the last two years. But the yen is up only 25 percent. Japan has put hundreds of billions of dollars into buying American money. The quantities are so great that that can't continue much longer. Japanese money is likely to go up in the future.

    ---

    Q: Are you concerned about inflation?

    John Templeton: Long term, because we have more and more democracies in the world, we're going to have more and more inflation. Politicians who are willing to spend too much are the ones who get reelected. Look back at history. Inflation has averaged about 2 percent a year. Probably, it will average somewhat more than that in the next century. But from a short-range standpoint, there does not yet seem to be a shortage of almost any product. Until there's a shortage, you're not likely to see higher prices.

    ---

    Q: What do you see as the biggest threat to economic recovery in the U.S.?

    John Templeton: We don't need an economic recovery because we're already operating at a very high level. The greatest threat to maintaining this level of economic activity is debt. There's never been a time when people worldwide, and especially in America, had such a high proportion of debt. I think 20 percent of people who have mortgages on their homes are likely to lose them in foreclosures. When a home goes into bankruptcy, it's sold at auction. That pushes the price down and affects the prices of other homes.

    ---

    Q: Does the U.S. government's debt level worry you?

    John Templeton: Oh, yes. There has never been any government anywhere in the world that has such a big deficit in the federal budget. And there's never been a nation in history that had such an adverse balance of trade. However, if you look at those debts and balance of trade as a percentage of gross national product, they're bad, but not unprecedented.

    ---

    Q: What does that mean for investors?

    John Templeton: It's one more reason why this is a dangerous time to own stocks.

    ---

    Q: Even foreign equities?

    John Templeton: Yes. In my long history I could always find some nation where people were desperately trying to sell. Now I can't find a place where people are trying desperately to get out of equities.

    ---

    Q: So what do you think about the rush to invest in China?

    (MORE)

    John Templeton: The cycles will be much wider and more frequent in China because of the lack of information. Having said that, if you're investing, you should put a fairly large part of your total assets in China because within as short a period as 30 years, China is likely to have the largest gross national product any nation has ever had.

    Q: Is India as great an opportunity as China?

    John Templeton: Yes. You could say almost the same thing about India, except in terms of speed. The improvement in India is wonderful but not as fast. But the Indian market is up more than 80 percent in 12 months. That's a danger signal. It means you're going to take a lot of risk that you wouldn't have taken a year before.

    ---

    Q: What's the world's best stock market now?

    John Templeton: The best answer is none. There are so many securities analysts working on that question that the prices in different markets are less out of line than normal.

    ---

    Q: So an influx of information has made life difficult for global value investors?

    John Templeton: When I became an investment counselor, there were only 17 security analysts on earth. Now, in America alone, there are more than 32,000, and they do have an effect on prices by doing research on where to find bargains.

    ---

    Q: If you were starting out in the investing world today, what would you do?

    John Templeton: Play safe. If you don't have your money in equities, it's very difficult to find a place to put it. Gold has already gone up. . . . People also tend to think it's safe to put your money in the bank. When I was studying in the U.K., people swore that it was safe to put your money in pounds sterling. But within a few years, sterling went down from $5 a pound to $1.50 a pound because of the war. If gold and bank accounts are no longer safe, where can you put it? Diversify. Don't put too much in any one thing.

    ---

    Q: What have you been buying lately?

    John Templeton: I believe there are fewer opportunities than I've ever seen in 91 years. In the last year I've been using market-neutral hedge funds, whose policy is to have always the same quantity of longs and shorts. I have invested lately in two funds that are managed by people who worked for me when I was in the investment business: Jane Siebels-Kilnes' Siebels Multi-Fund and Mark Holowesko's Holowesko Global fund. They aren't registered with the SEC, however, so American stockbrokers can't sell them.

    ---

    Q: After the corporate scandals of recent years, how can we restore trust in the markets?

    John Templeton: The answer is comparison. When you're worried about those scandals, stop and think, what nation would you feel safer in? At what time in world history could you feel safer? I don't think you'll find any time when the degree of information, the degree of honesty, is higher than it is today.

    ---

    Q: You don't think there's anything the government should do to restore trust?

    John Templeton: Yes. Keep their hands off. It has been proven over and over that the best regulation is free competition. Those that are not doing a good job for the public get squeezed out. I can't think of any nation where the quantity of regulation is already not too high.

    ---

    Q: A couple of days ago, Franklin Resources, the firm that bought your funds, was accused of participating in market-timing arrangements. What's your take on the fund scandal?

    John Templeton: Everything I've just said applies double to that. Can you think of any industry or any nation where there are fewer questionable practices than there are in American mutual funds? I can't. If all the claims in the news were added up, what would it cost a mutual fund owner? One cent.

    ---

    Q: You've lived here in the Bahamas for 31 years . . .

    John Templeton: Yes. I've found my results for investment clients were far better here than when I had my office in 30 Rockefeller Plaza. When you're in Manhattan, it's much more difficult to go opposite to the crowd.

Tuesday, July 08, 2008

The Said Article Suggesting Gamuda Could Be Privatised And The Rebuttal from Gamuda

Here's the link to the said article insinuating that Gamuda might be privatised,h7 July 2008: Corporate: Gamuda to be privatised?

  • 7 July 2008: Corporate: Gamuda to be privatised?
    By Siow Chen Ming

    With the market plunging, talk of Gamuda Bhd being taken private has surfaced.

    Several groups of investors, with the help of Middle Eastern funds, are said to be working out a deal to take the construction giant private, it is learnt.

    With its market value having declined from RM11.5 billion earlier this year to RM4.55 billion, Gamuda offers investors a golden opportunity.

    Its share price closed at RM2.27 last Friday.

    "If things pan out, there should be some developments in a month or two,"
    says a source.

    Given Gamuda's few shareholders, a takeover would only succeed if there is support from the two existing substantial shareholders.

    The Perak royal family, through Generasi Setia (M) Sdn Bhd, is still the largest shareholder of Gamuda with a 7.51% stake. Close behind is Platinum Investment Management Ltd, which held a 7.49% stake as of June 26.

    Sources do not discount the possibility of Platinum participating in a takeover of Gamuda. It is believed that the Australian investment firm is aligned to an investment group which is backed by a Middle Eastern fund. It is said that the fund investors are keen on Gamuda because of its construction expertise.

    Platinum has been active in acquiring shares in Gamuda. It emerged as a substantial shareholder in early June with a 5.3% stake. Over the past month, it has increased its equity interest to 7.49% and is likely to keep accumulating shares, which indicates it could have more in mind.

    There may be other groups eyeing Gamuda as well, sources say. If indeed several offers emerge, including one by Platinum to take Gamuda private, Generasi Setia would determine who gets to make a successful offer.

    Generasi Setia would have to be convinced before a privatisation or even takeover can materialise.

    The company, which had been gradually selling down its stake in Gamuda from the beginning of the year, stopped disposing of the shares from May 23.

    Presumably, it is waiting for a good price from prospective parties. According to industry officials, it is no secret that Generasi Setia wants to divest or reduce its holdings in Gamuda. This became more evident after Gamuda's managing director Datuk Lin Yun Ling reduced his stake in the company from 5.23% to 1.73% in February.

    There are no other substantial shareholders in Gamuda apart from Generasi Setia and Platinum. Fidelity's FMR LLC & FIL Ltd recently sold down its holdings to a non-substantial level following the reduction in Lin's interest in the construction giant.

    The sparse shareholding structure has created a power vacuum in Gamuda, which makes it an appealing target for takeover apart from its depressed market valuation.

    "Gamuda does not have a controlling shareholder now. While Lin is still in control of management, the perception is that he may not give the same level of commitment after he sold down his stake,"
    says a fund manager.

    However, Lin and his management team have dispelled such a notion numerous times. A source says the management team is against the idea of a takeover that may result in changes in the company's direction.

    Two weeks ago, Lin entered into a fresh five-year contract to stay on as Gamuda's managing director. The message sent is that the management team is here to stay no matter what the shareholders have in store for the company.

    Sources say the idea behind the privatisation of Gamuda surfaced after attempts to merge the company with IJM.

    The idea was to create a bigger construction group, with Middle Eastern funds and the Employees Provident Fund (EPF) as major shareholders, which could make a larger impact on the Middle East construction sector. The EPF is currently the dominant shareholder of IJM with a 19.74% stake.

    Presumably, the benefit of having a Middle Eastern fund as shareholder is to help open doors when bidding for mega projects in the Gulf region.

    However, sources say the proposal to merge the two construction giants was difficult as it was too big a deal for either management to digest. There was also the view that the merger would not necessarily add value.

    The promoters felt that without the endorsement of management, it would be difficult for a merger to be carried out, even if the shareholders wanted it.

    Gamuda, however, is an attractive takeover target. It has concession assets such as the Sprint and Kesas highways and interest in water treatment plants.

    The tricky part is still management. While the interested parties could acquire shares on the open market and increase their shareholding to a significant level or close enough to take Gamuda private, could they win over the existing management team?

    And people are the key assets for companieslike Gamuda.

    As Lin put it in an interview a few months ago, construction is a people-driven business. While he admitted that Gamuda could become a takeover target if its market valuation continued to be depressed, he said it would not be a straightforward proposition due to management issues.

Everything based on sources.

If there is any credibility to such reporting, why doesn't the Edge states precisely who the sources are?

And posted on Bursa Malaysia, Article Entitled: "Gamuda To Be Privatised?"

  • We refer to the above article which appeared in The Edge, pages 1 & 17, on Monday, 7 July 2008 where it was quoted as follows:-

    "Several groups of investors, with the help of Middle Eastern funds,.....to take the construction giant private,......"

    We wish to clarify that as at the date hereof, Gamuda Berhad ("the Company") has no knowledge and has not been notified of any change in the substantial shareholders of the Company. We will make the appropriate announcement in accordance with the Listing Requirements in the event that there is any corporate exercise or change in substantial shareholder.

    This announcement is dated 8 July 2008.

Now that Gamuda had made rebuttal to this privatisation story told by this sources and now that Gamuda had surged, what are we going to do?

How?

Do you reckon that our financial press should be allowed the freedom to write as they wished based on unnamed sources?

And to top it off, the daily Edge carried another article!!!!!
08-07-2008: Gamuda's share price rises on privatisation talk

  • 08-07-2008: Gamuda's share price rises on privatisation talk
    by Nadia S Hassan

    KUALA LUMPUR: Construction player Gamuda Bhd saw its share price spike yesterday on news that the company may be taken private and that a buyout offer for its stake in the Selangor state water concession is in the offing.

    The counter jumped 20 sen or 8.8% to RM2.47. This is a turnaround for the stock, which has been languishing over the past few months due to a slew of negative analyst reports as well as fears that the construction sector is facing a slowdown.

    Gamuda's share price closed at a 52-week low of RM2.13 on June 23.

    Over the weekend, The Edge weekly reported that several groups of investors, with the help of Middle Eastern funding, were working on a plan to buy out the company.

    In a separate development, Kumpulan Darul Ehsan Bhd (KDEB) announced last Friday that it had been given the federal and state authorities' go-ahead to consolidate four water concessionaires in the state to be managed in a holistic manner by KDEB.

    On the news of the privatisation, CIMB Research noted that the speculation was not new.

    "We view the potential privatisation of Gamuda by a Middle East fund as positive however. Though we deem the news as purely speculative at this point with scanty details on the pricing and structure of the deal, one key advantage should this plan materialise is that it could enhance Gamuda's presence in the Middle East," said CIMB.

    At the moment, about 7% of Gamuda's outstanding order book comes from the Gulf region.

    Macquarie believed that Gamuda's loose shareholding structure and depressed valuations make it a prime takeover target.

    "We believe that the acquisition of Gamuda might make sense for Middle East investors, as the company does have strong civil infrastructure skills, which most of the Middle East construction companies currently lack," said Macquarie.

    Another added bonus is that Gamuda's managing director Datuk Lin Yun Ling has only recently signed a five-year management contract with the company.

    "Hence the buyer of Gamuda would be assured of management continuity, a key factor for the company," said Macquarie.

    The Perak Royal Family currently holds a 7.5% stake in Gamuda via Generasi Setia, while Platinum Investment Management holds another 7.5%.

    Both CIMB and Macquarie have an outperform call on Gamuda. CIMB's target price for Gamuda is RM3.55, while Macquarie's target price is RM3.08.

Ref: Rumours Why Gamuda Shares Is Moving Higher! and Why Sources Must Be Quoted In A Financial News.



Why Sources Must Be Quoted In A Financial News.

The following are comments posted on the blog posting, Rumours Why Gamuda Shares Is Moving Higher!

1. bursatradingideas said...
My friend,Seriously, if it's misleading to the uninformed, it's irresponsible reporting.


2. Victor AY said...
The quality of reporting by The Edge had become bad to worse. This is not the 1st time they had cite unnamed sources about the issue. Another perfect example of buy on rumour and sell on fact...let's hope whoever done this be investigated by SC...where's the justice ?


3. Fesserie said...
From my experience with Bursa and several counters that are in the midst of corporate restructuring. There is no smoke without fire!Usually, the prices and details of the deal that you read in the media is a watered down version


4. Fesserie said...
Dear Moola,The press is a medium for various parties to further their interests.Insider trading is evident everywhere,just that is is more rampant in Malaysia.Moreover, publishing such "rumours" in the press will jack up the share price, thus giving the seller more bargaining chips.


5. Fesserie said...
From what I can see, the regulatory authorities has not initiated any actions against the various prepetuators. Perharps everyone is making good $$ from it?


6. The Great Game said...
Ever since Moola highlited this "according to sources" issue, I have paid attention on this unnamed sources on the international financial papers that I read regularly. No real surprise, even Wall Streets Journal and Financial Times do use this unnamed sources for imminent / possible M&As from time to time.The only publications that I have yet found any "unnamed source" is Economist, which is understandable since it's a weekly publication.


Talking about rumours, there's this conspiracy theory behind Bear Stern's collapse by Byran Burrough (the author of 'Barbarians at the Gate'), where claimed Bear Stern was literally killed by rumours.

http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/features/2008/08/bear_stearns200808

Rumours are just part and parcel of the game.Maybe some person with the relevant legal knowledge could correct me; but one only consitutes 'insider trading' if he actually use the information for profiteering; actual leaking in itself does not constitute any 'insider trading'

----

I would like to respond to The Great Game's reply here for it feels extremely crowded in the reply page for the original posting.

Dear Great Game,

1. I do not see the need to compare yet again.

Yes, rumours always existed but why should our financial press be used as a tool to distribute the rumours?

2. My issue is on these Unnamed sources.

If the financial press insists on publishing a news based on rumours, why aren't they brave enough to quote their sources? Why? Are they afraid they the story carries no weight?

So all I am asking is 'Where's the credibility to the news when the source is NOT named'?

Take a political news. Is there any credibility to a political news when it's quoted based on unnamed sources? The answer is none.

So why should it be different from the stock market?

In the financial market, when a stock is driven higher because of news from some unnamed sources, how would we know if the story is NOT cooked for one's personal interest?

In the financial market, when a stock is driven higher because of news from some unnamed sources, how do we know if the story is not fabricated and used as tool to drive stock higher?

Monday, July 07, 2008

Dr. Marc Faber Is Very Bearish On Global Economy And Thinks Malaysia Stocks Will Go Down And China Stocks Could Go Down More!

Published on Bloomberg News, Faber Says Malaysian Stocks May Fall as Sentiment Is Negative

  • By Chua Kong Ho

    July 7 (Bloomberg) -- Marc Faber, founder and managing director of Marc Faber Ltd. in Hong Kong and publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, comments on the outlook for Malaysian stocks.

    As many as 15,000 people gathered outside the Malaysian capital city of Kuala Lumpur yesterday to protest last month's increase in fuel prices in a rally led by opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim. Anwar has said he would be able to put together enough lawmakers to topple the government by September.

    The Kuala Lumpur Composite Index has fallen 21 percent this year.

    ``You can argue that Malaysian equities are relatively inexpensive compared to bond yields and money market rates, but I own some Malaysian shares and I think they'll go down. I don't think they'll go up.''

    ``By and large sentiment will be negative in Malaysia. I'm very bearish about the global economy and I think that the recession that is coming will be very vicious and knock down a lot of share prices and property prices.''

And Dr. Faber reckons that the worse is not over for Chinese Stocks! China Bulls Wrong; Stock Rout to Worsen, Says Faber

  • China Bulls Wrong; Stock Rout to Worsen, Says Faber

    July 7 (Bloomberg) -- Investors betting on a rebound in China's tumbling stocks are setting themselves up for more losses, according to Marc Faber, who told investors to bail out of U.S. stocks before 1987's so-called Black Monday crash and correctly predicted last August the U.S. would enter a bear market.

    Faber's forecast contrasts with local stock analysts, who are as bullish as ever even after a 51 percent plunge in the CSI 300 Index since its October record. ``Buy'' calls still make up two-thirds of all recommendations for Chinese stocks, virtually unchanged from the market's peak, according to Bloomberg data.

    ``I just wouldn't buy,'' Faber said in an interview from Bangkok July 4. ``When a bubble bursts, you only hit bottom when people totally give up and vow they'll never buy stocks again. People are still more worried they'll miss the next rally.''

    China's rout has wiped out more than $2 trillion in market value after the government raised interest rates six times last year to cool the economy and commodities prices surged, fanning inflation. The CSI 300 more than doubled in 2006 and 2007, making its shares the world's priciest and prompting the government, Alan Greenspan, Warren Buffett, and Faber, to warn of a bubble.

    Investor Confidence

    The last time Chinese stocks fell by half -- from a June 2001 high -- the Shanghai Composite Index took four years to reach its low. More than 60 percent of China's retail investors are ``confident'' about the performance of the nation's stock market in the next two years, the Shanghai Securities News reported July 4, citing a survey it conducted with StockStar.com, a provider of financial data via the Web.

    The declines sent valuations for stocks on the CSI 300 Index to their lowest in more than two years last week, with the benchmark trading at 19.9 times reported earnings, a level last seen in April 2006. Liu Yang, managing director at Atlantis Investment Management Ltd., which oversees about $4 billion in assets, expects a rebound.

    ``Fundamentals are very strong in China compared to any other Asian nation,'' said Hong Kong-based Liu. ``Chinese stocks are trading at crisis valuations. Do they deserve to trade at crisis valuations? The answer is no. The market deserves a very good rebound from here.''

    The CSI 300 Index rose as 5.1 percent today, the most in more than two weeks.

    Record Oil

    China, the world's fastest-growing major economy, grew 10.6 percent in the first quarter. That's the ninth straight quarter growth has exceeded 10 percent. Record oil prices have eroded earnings, with Chinese industrial companies increasing profits at half the pace in the first five months compared to a year earlier, official data show. Inflation was 8.1 percent in the first five months, the fastest pace since 1996.

    Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, also said Chinese shares could bounce off lows, though only temporarily.

    ``We could have rebounds of 20 to 30 percent, but I wouldn't bet on it,'' Faber said. ``I would rather use rebounds as a selling opportunity.''

    Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average plunged 60 percent in two and a half years from its December 1989 high; today it's slightly more than a third its peak of 19 years ago. The Nasdaq Composite Index plunged 78 percent in 31 months from its March 2000 record.

    ``Like the Nasdaq when the bubble burst in 2000, it rebounded but we're still 50 percent lower today than we were in 2000,'' said Faber. ``This is eight years later.''


Rumours Why Gamuda Shares Is Moving Higher!

Makes you wonder why our financial newspaper is publishing articles stating that certain shares are going up because of rumours.

I mean shouldn't our financial news be reporting news instead of rumours?

Or are our financial news represent a tool for those who wants to push their shares higher?

Take Gamuda.

The shares moved higher this morning based on rumours.

Let's have a look at the chronology of events that had taken place so far.

Posted 7.55am.

  • 1. KUALA LUMPUR (Dow Jones)--Several groups of investors, with the help of Middle Eastern funds, are working out a deal to take construction giant Gamuda Bhd. (5398.KU) private, The Edge reported Monday, citing an unnamed sources.
    "If things pan out, there should be some developments in a month or two," said
    one of the sources.
    Sources
    do not discount the possibility of Platinum Investment Management Ltd., one of Gamuda's two biggest shareholders, with a 7.49% stake, participating in the takeover, the financial weekly reported.

Unnamed sources! Just who are these sources?

Posted 8.51 am.

  • 2. 0051 GMT [Dow Jones] Gamuda (5398.KU) may rise to MYR2.41 (recent high) vs Friday close at MYR2.27 (flat) as The Edge weekly reports several groups of investors with help of Middle Eastern funds planning to strike deal to privatize construction firm. "If things pan out, there should be some developments in a month or two," report cites unnamed source saying. Also, not ruling out possibility of Platinum Investment Management Ltd., one of Gamuda's 2 biggest shareholders, with a 7.49% stake, participating in takeover, the financial weekly reported. "Since the steep retreat in Gamuda's share price (from year-high of MYR5.75 to current price), all sorts of rumors have been swirling around the company, including the possibility of the company being privatized. This fresh report may create some excitement in early trade and boost Gamuda's share price," says dealer. (VGB)

Incredible! A target price is also mentioned!

Posted at 10.34 am.

  • 3. 0234 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Affin Investment keeps Buy on Gamuda (5398.KU) but trims target to MYR2.94 from MYR3.15; follows 1.7%, 5.2% cut in FY09, FY10 EPS forecasts, lowering of property bookings by MYR100 million for both years. Adds, news report about several groups of investors with help of Middle East funds working out deal to take company private, not unexpected. Notes, Gamuda had no controlling shareholder, after sale of 70 million shares by managing director earlier this year, who further dispersed shareholding structure. "Any attempts to privatize the company at a price closer to the fair value should help investors realize potential capital gains earlier," says analyst Ong Keng Wee. Shares +4.4% at MYR2.37. (SJO)

See the point where it's mentioned that Gamuda had no controlling shareholder?

Posted 11.11am.

  • 4. 0311 GMT [Dow Jones] Gamuda (5398.KU) +3.5% at MYR2.35 in heavy volume, off intraday high of MYR2.44; initial surge in share price attributed to The Edge report earlier about several group of investors planning to take company private, funded many middle eastern investors. "Talk of privatization has surfaced a number of times. Rumors on such exercise have emerged a number of times following (MD) Lin Yun Ling's decision to sell down his stake in the company to 1.7% from 5.2% in February," says dealer. However, Lin entered into afresh 5-year contract to stay on as Gamuda's MD 2 weeks ago, putting to rest fears of his departure. Dealer also notes power vacuum due to fragmented shareholding structure; Perak Royal family owns 7.5%, Platinum Investment Management owns 7.4%. Given "such depressed share prices and no controlling shareholder, Gamuda looks very appealing as a takeover target," dealer adds. Stock expected to trade within MYR2.30 to MYR2.40 for rest of day. (VGB)

Oh now this unnamed dealer says that Gamuda looks very appealing as a takeover target. I wonder why this dealer so shy to be named!

And published on Business Times, Gamuda climbs

  • A newspaper reports that investors, backed by funds from the Middle East, are working on a plan to buy out the construction company

    SHARE prices of infrastructure group Gamuda Bhd were higher today following reports by a local newspaper that the company may be a buyout target by a group of investors from a Middle East Fund, dealers said.

    Its projects range from mega projects such as the internationally acclaimed SMART (Stormwater Management and Road Tunnel).

    It is also well-known for intra-urban highways, the Kaohsiung Mass Rapid Transit system in Kaohsiung, Taiwan, the Nam Theun 1 (NT1) hydropower project in Laos, the Dukhan Highway in Qatar, and airfield and road tunnel works for the New Doha International Airport in Qatar.

    There are also rumours that the company may be taken private.

    As at 10.20am, Gamuda rose nine sen to RM2.36. - Bernama

How nice!

On yet another very depressing day on the local stock stock market, Gamuda traded against the general downtrend to close at 2.40, up by some 5%.

And it all started from rumours based on unnamed sources!

How blatantly nice!

Publish some articles based on rumours from unnamed sources and the stock soars!

Are you EVEN watching SC?

Gamuda's Current Receivables Issue

Here is the link to Gamuda’s earnings report announced in March 2008, Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 31/1/2008

It reported quarterly net earnings of 90.107 million.

What interested me most was their Balance Sheet.



Now Gamuda latest earnings was reported on 25th June 2008,
Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 30/4/2008, where it reported a net earnings of only 76.105 million.

Yes, the quarterly decline in net earnings was a worry but the most troubling issue was the receivables. Take a look at their balance sheet reported below.

Receivables soared to 1.012 Billion. Up a whopping 419.447 million if compared to the previous quarter! (Amount due for construction works fell from 514.410 million to 373.335 million when compared to the previous quarter)

Rather baffling if you ask me since Gamuda revenue for the quarter was only 562 million, so how could receivables raise so much for the quarter?

How?

If you are an 'investor' would this be a real issue for you?

Saturday, July 05, 2008

Market Predictions & Outlook

Featured on Star Bizweek: Better predictions

The following passage was so interesting for me.

  • Airy-Fairy projections

    The worst kind are airy-fairy ones. For example: “The KLCI will reach 2000 over the next few years.”

    What good are such statements!? What does “few years” in this context mean? Three? Maybe 5 years? Could it even mean 7 years? These are the predictions one ought to be wary of, as the pundit is trying very hard to avoid making the wrong call whilst seemingly issuing a strong call/statement.

    Talking about big calls, here’s one - Goldman Sachs’ recent prediction that oil prices will reach US$200 within the next 12-18 months.

    On the other hand (deliberate use of that phrase here), making a forecast that the market will hit 2000 is a very weak call. One might as well not make one. I’ll tell you why. Let’s start with the 1300 point level. Based on a 10% annual compounded gain, we could see the CI in 2008 at 1430 points; 2009 at 1573; 2010 at 1730; 2011 at 1903; 2012 at 2093.

    See what I mean? It’s not a major call at all, and definitely not when used alongside an ambiguous time horizon of a “few years” or even worse still “in future”.

    Predictions are meant to be useful to guide investors to make investment decisions. Vague calls that are essentially hedged bets serve no such purpose.

    There seems to be just too many well-hedged views by analysts, fund managers, economists as well as CEOs. The media fraternity should probe more when faced with such vague calls.

I chuckled for I had just read a forwarded weekly market commentary from iCapital.

  • Strength from weakness ? Subscribers must have been shocked when we wrote that in last week’s i Capital. Since then, it looks like not only is Malaysia getting strength from weakness, but the weak is getting stronger. Don’t ask us how it can be done but our Malaysian magician politicians are of world-class standards, at least as world-class monkeys instead of world-class administrators. As the price of oil refused to budge, our politicians have also refused to budge.

That world-class monkeys statement certainly raised my eye-brows!

However, I was so confused about the the statement: Malaysia getting strength from weakness, but the weak is getting stronger. What are they talking about?

  • With the latest sodomy charge emerging, our political monkeys, both in the ruling coalition and the opposition, have managed to turn the whole country in just a few months into a zoo, a zoo full of asses (pardon the pun). With one leader having to defend his back (again pardon the pun) and another leader having to face statutory declarations, the weak is actually getting stronger. For now, Malaysians are not bothered with this twist of event. Malaysians are more interested in wanting to know (or rather to gossip) who did it and why. The two most obvious persons that coffee-shop talk is focusing on are the 4th prime minister and the current prime minister. Both have a lot to gain.

    The list of “who done it” does not stop there. There are so many possible politicians, all with plenty of political mileage to gain, who would gain from this sodomy addiction. There are so many theories as to who did it and all of them seemed plausible. Since you guys, aka political monkeys, are having so much fun at our expense, let us Malaysians have some fun too by gossiping. While your fun destroys the whole country and make all us poorer, at least our fun is harmless and helps to establish the truth behind this political hedonism. Business at coffee shops should be roaring. Can we do a coffee shop IPO ? At least its NAV would not drop. So, please do not sue us or make us sign statutory declarations of all kinds. Some theories are so interesting that we would not dare to publish it. Some even say that it is a powerful woman who did it. He…he…. As everyone is gossiping and no one is managing the country and the economy, we better stop here, as we need to pay attention to the economy and the stock market. One thing is for sure though. Looking at how dirty and unscrupulous our politicians can be, the May 1969 riot was certainly orchestrated by our unscrupulous politicians.

    As Malaysia gets deeper into an oily patch, the price of crude oil gets deeper into stratosphere. The Malaysian government has promised no more price hikes after the recent jump. Can we afford it ? Can Malaysia with years of budget deficit afford to live beyond its means ?

    When the government raised the price of petrol and diesel, many protested. Why should we have to pay higher oil price when Malaysia is an oil producer and net oil exporter ? The argument of the protestors is that we should not compare our oil price with Thailand’s or Singapore’s as they are net oil importers. Malaysia should compare its price with those of the oil producers which are absurdly low. Is this argument complete ?

    Due to the unproductive and wasteful spending under the 4th prime minister, Malaysia has been “enjoying” many years of budget deficit. Although Badawi has been controlling it and reducing it gradually, by 2007, it was still 3.2% of GDP. When we were asked to compare our petrol price with those of the oil producers, how many of us know that these oil producers are running massive budget surplus in contrast to Malaysia’s budget deficit ?

    Instead of protesting the rise in petrol and diesel price, Malaysians, be they from the opposition or ruling coalition, should be asking where are all our spending going to ? Why are oil-producing countries like Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Kuwait, Libya, etc all enjoying massive budget surpluses when Malaysia, an oil producer and a net oil exporter, is suffering from its 11th year of budget deficit ? Where are we spending our taxpayers money ? Why is our spending more than our revenue ? Get our budget into surplus, then, we can talk about our “high” petrol and diesel prices.

    In Malaysia, the price of flour is still controlled. In Indonesia, the price of flour is not. In 2007, the price of flour in Jakarta jumped more than 100%. Incidentally, the Jakarta stock market is holding up very well despite the global turbulence and inflation and interest rates rising in Indonesia. Pakistan, with a budget deficit expected to rise to 6.5% of GDP, is getting her people ready to totally phase out fuel subsidies by Dec 2008. When is Malaysia getting ready to do the same ?

    When will our political monkeys remember that they have a duty and responsibility to all Malaysians to ensure that the economy is managed successfully and responsibly ? Are there not effective and better ways of having a democracy AND a better economy ? Do not turn this beautiful country into a zoo.

I do understand the point of argument stated by iCapital as they see much wrong with the country.

However, I was truly baffled by their conclusion.

  • First, the KLSE was sodomised by worries of a global meltdown. Then, it was sodomised by the 2008 election results. Now, the KLSE looks like getting it again. Maybe after getting sodomised so many times and with investors getting sore, the KLSE may already be numbed. i Capital revises its immediate-term outlook of the KLSE to a range of 1,150 to 1,300. For the short-term, i Capital retains its outlook to a range of 1,150 to 1,400. For the medium and long-term outlook of the KLSE, i Capital still expects the KLSE CI to hit 2,000 points. With the 2008 election results now history but with the political comedy still being acted out, i Capital will review its medium- and long-term outlook at a relevant time.

It's immediate-term outlook of the KLSE to range from 1150 to 1300? ( Despite all the issues mentioned, iCapital's immediate outlook was adjusted from 1200-1300 to 1150-1300! Major adjustments?)

Short-term outlook is at 1150 to 1300?

And medium to long-term outlook of the KLSE to hit 2000?

Seriously, what is immediate-term? And what's the difference between short-term and immediate? I mean, isn't immediate a relatively short term period?

And what exactly is medium to long-term outlook?

What time period are we talking about? What are they even talking about?

Perhaps they could be more precise, yes? As it is, from a immediate (or short) to a long term outlook, iCapital is saying KLSE outlook is from 1150-2000 pts. Now this is simply way to vague, yes?

ps. Hmm.. the lowest range starts from 1150. Looks like iCapital is not covering its rear as it is stating boldly that KLSE would not be below 1150!

Fundamental Reasons To Sell A Stock

When does one SELL a stock?

Given the fact that the market has been falling non-stop for the past few days (6 days and counting), perhaps now is a good time to make a review on why an investor should sell a stock.

Time for that reality check.

In my opinion, to discounting everything as poor market sentiments is simply suicidal. It's best one face reality and ask ourselves if the business economics had seriously changed. Would the fundamentals of the business be impacted by such changes?

Anyway my opinion matters not. What's more important is your own reasoning to hold the stock.

Anyway, I do have a collection of articles written on why one should sell a stock.

One of the best logical reasoning to sell is we want to sell the stock before it turns into a loser and one of the best checklist of telltale signs that a stock could be a potential loser are mentioned in a Wallstraits article,
Market Rules: Let Winners Run

  • 1. Declining sales quarter-to-quarter and year-to-year
  • 2. Rising debt levels
  • 3. Declining profit margins
  • 4. Rising inventory levels
  • 5. Changes in regulatory or legal environment
  • 6. Emerging competitors or technologies
  • 7. Rising interest rates
  • 8. An emerging overall bear market
  • 9. Events that negatively impact future earnings
  • 10. Mergers and acquisitions
  • 11. Management changes
  • 12. Institutional or insider selling
  • 13. Dividend cut or elimination
  • 14. Concerns over accounting procedures

(Some simple fast questions I would ask myself now. Let's see, a high inflationary environment, profit margins have a strong possibility to be impacted greatly and would this result in lower profits? Would this have ultimately result in a long period of declining profits? Changes in political environments? If inflationary pressure continues, would interest rates raise? An emerging overall bear market? (do a simple check-list, how are the major markets faring since the start of this year? ( A couple weeks ago, Dr.Brett did a simple posting A Worldwide Bear Market - do consider that most markets have fared worse since then - are they justifiable reasonings why most global markets are performing so alarmingly poor?) Any big fund selling? )

There's another wonderful article written by Ms.Teh Hooi Ling back in 2005 on Singapore Business Time.

  • Published October 15, 2005

    When to sell a stock can be a tough call
    Find out why you own that stock and never wait to catch the top of a rising trend

    By TEH HOOI LING

    'WHAT's a good question,' a private equity investor said when I asked him when he would rebalance his portfolio. 'Sembawang Kimtrans has gone up so much it's now a big part of our portfolio. We still don't know what to do with it yet.'

    He runs a pretty focused portfolio, consisting of about 10 stocks. Let's say he started with $1 million three months ago which was equally invested in ten stocks. In other words, each stock had a 10 per cent weighting in his portfolio.

    Assume that the remaining nine stocks did not move. Logistics company Sembawang Kimtrans, which tripled its share price from June to the end of September, now constitutes about 25 per cent of his portfolio. To have 25 per cent of one's funds concentrated on one stock is quite a risky proposition.

    There has to come a time when he would have to cut back on his holdings of SembKimtrans. The question is when. But at least his problem is a happy one.

    Take another example of Inter-Roller Engineering. In November 2001, it was a loss-making company trading at as low as 7.3 cents a share. Today, those same shares are worth $1.14 apiece.

    If you had bought the stock at 7.3 cents in 2001, by August 2003, when it had risen to 45 cents for a whopping gain of more than 500 per cent, it would have been tempting to just take the profit and run.

    And if you had, you would have missed out on another 900 per cent return on your initial capital. But had you held on, and again assuming that Inter-Roller made up 10 per cent of your portfolio five years ago, it would now constitute 63 per cent of your stock-holding, if the others stayed put.

    Again there has to come a time for the sell decision. If not, any falter in the company could deal a severe blow to your portfolio.

    Thus the decision to sell a stock is just as important, if not more, than a buy decision.

    I've read through some literature on when to sell a stock and I've found those in the Morningstar Investing Classroom to make a lot of sense.

    According to the articles, the best way to know when to sell a stock is to know why you own it in the first place.

    For a disciplined investor, there are usually a few reasons for buying a stock.

    Fundamental question

    One is you like the fundamentals of the company. If this is the case, you should sell when the fundamentals change.

    According to Philip Fisher, author of the important book Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits, 'It is only occasionally that there is any reason for selling at all.'

    And the occasional reason is the deterioration of a company's underlying business. 'When companies deteriorate, they usually do so for one of two reasons. Either there has been a deterioration of management, or the company no longer has the prospect of increasing the markets for its product in the way it formerly did,' he says.
    ( so very important this issue! )

    Eastern Asia Tech is one example of how a company's fundamentals can change over time. The Taiwan-based company used to be a promising enterprise, being voted by Forbes Global magazine as one of the world's 200 best companies under US$1 billion for 2002 and 2003.

    In 2003, it was the largest original design manufacturer of DVD Home Theatre in a Box combo systems, with more than 20 per cent of global market share. It was also the largest original equipment manufacturer for speaker systems, with about 23 per cent market share. And it was gaining market share.

    But it was still clinging on to its vertically integrated business model of producing most of the parts it needed on its own. The manufacturing sector as a whole meanwhile was moving towards focusing on only one's core competence and outsourcing other operations.

    As it turned out, Eastern Asia Tech found it could not keep up with its competitors in terms of cost structure and has sunk deep into the red. It is now trying to restructure its business. Its share price has plunged by some 60 per cent in the past year.

    Whether Eastern Asia Tech can gain back its market share after its restructuring remains to be seen. But for the company's investors, it's probably a tad too late now to sell. As of yesterday, the share price is trading at some 60 per cent discount to net asset value.

    However, if a stock's fundamentals remain intact but the stock price is battered - due to, say, a major shareholder selling part of his stake - one may not want to panic unnecessarily.

    There could be other reasons not related to the business prospects that had prompted him to cut his stake. It could be that the major shareholder wanted to diversify his holdings, or that he needed to raise cash for something else.

    But always be willing to cut loss if you find flaws in your initial buy analysis.

    ( ah.. this is something I see too often and I think it is the biggest flaw amongst investors. Admit your mistakes! It's never a shame to admit that we made a flaw in your stock selection. It happens to everyone.

    We were wrong. Admit our mistakes. And CORRECT our mistakes!

    If you do not correct our mistakes... when will we be right?

    Even the great Warren Buffett do admit when he is wrong....

    So why can't we do so? )


    Another reason we might buy a stock is because we like the industry it is in. An industry could be just at the cusp of the next wave of growth. A rising tide lifts all boats. So a company in the right sector is likely to do well. Witness the oil and gas and marine-related sectors in the last couple of years.

    Industry cycles tend to last a few years. The growth came because there had been a neglect of that sector for a period. Few were investing in the sector and thus production capacity was limited. And when suddenly a surge of demand materialises, established companies can increases their prices and enjoy super normal growth.

    But slowly, more companies would join the industry, and established companies would invest to increase their output. This would continue until one day the supply would again exceed demand, and the industry would head south.
    (cycles... the earnings cycle...in a cyclical environment, the good times would not last forever and this is a very good point to remember!)

    So if you buy a stock because of the industry it is in, it is crucial to monitor such things as the inventory level of the industry and its current and future demand.

    And thirdly, we may buy a stock not because of its fundamentals but because we think that it is cheap and is trading at a significant discount to its net asset value.

    For example the likes of Orchard Parade, Hong Fok, and Bonvests were trading at more than 50 per cent discount to their net asset value.

    In these situations, you might want to decide to set a target for selling when the share price climbs to, say, 70 per cent or 80 per cent of asset value.

    Watch the P-E ratios

    Meanwhile, too much of a good thing can be bad. Examples would be stock prices which have run ahead of their fundamentals because investors are pricing in all the good news and more.

    Keeping an eye on a company's price-earnings ratio vis-a-vis the industry's and its earnings growth is one indicator to look out for.

    And finally, how much a stock will move is a function of, among other things, the market cycle as well as its business cycle. If prices are coming off a very severe bear market which had lasted two or three years, a 200 to 300 per cent gain is not out of reach.

    Similarly, if a company had so much bad news and was dumped indiscriminately, any signs of a turnaround could send its stock price back on a recovery trend, and if things continue to be on the mend a doubling or tripling of its price is achievable.

    But there's no certainty of catching the top of a rising trend. Perhaps the consolation is, it is better to sell an undervalued stock at a profit than to buy an overvalued stock and suffer losses.

    To sell now or not to sell: Always be willing to cut loss if you find flaws in your initial buy analysis

Here are some reasons to sell a stock from some investing legends.

  • The Graham Way

    Graham was an advocate selling a security when it reached its intrinsic value. He reasoned that a security had little or no profit potential past that point, and that one would be better of finding another undervalued situation.

    So, if he bought a stock for $15 a share and assigned an intrinsic value with a range of $30 to $40 a share, when the stock reached the $30 a share, he would sell it. And he then reinvest his proceeds in another undervalued situation.

    To safeguard his interest against time, in which he would loses out against annual compounding rate of return, Graham would always buy if and only if the stock is selling at a market price which is sufficiently below the stock's intrinsic value, his margin of safety.

    But what if the stock never rises to its intrinsic value? Yup, what if tak laku? Wait 2 years? 5 years? How long should one wait?

    Graham's solution was 2-3 years. He reasons that if the stock hadn't reach its intrinsic value then, it probably never would. So, it is better off to SELL and find a new situation.

  • Warren's Way

    Well Buffett found that these remedies did not really solve the REALIZATION-OF-VALUE problem. He found that more often than other, he was left holding stocks that never rose to their projected intrinsic value. And even if it did, once he sold them, the IRS would slap him with capital gains.

    So Munger and Fisher advocated another solution to this problem. They argued that if the one bought an excellent business that was growing, and that the management functioned with the shareholders' financial gain as their primary concren, then the time to sell was NEVER - unless these circumstances changed or a better solution availed itself. They believed that superior results could be had by following this strategy, which allowed for the investor to fully benefit from the compounding effect of the business profitably employing its retained earnings.

    So, Warren had to stop buying any situation solely on the basis of price. He began to base his investment decisions on the economic nature of the business. The excellent business with a high rates of return on equity, identifiable consumer monopoly and shareholder-oriented management became his primary target.

    Price, still dictated whether the stock would be bought and what the annual compounding rate of return would be. But once the purchase was made, it could be held for many years as long as the economics of the business didn't change dramatically for the worse.

    One removes the weeds from the garden but not the shoots of greens that are flowering and bearing fruit.

  • The Mr.Market's Way

    Many investors continually fall victim to the threat that the next bear market is around the corner. The common adage is to take the defensive position which would means that selling to turn your investment into cash.

    Well, Fisher thought that this was a stupid way to conduct your affairs.

    But when will the Bear Market ever occur on schedule?

    Yup, could anyone ever predict correctly what Mr.Market would do? Cause if you sell your great investment, that the bear market just around the corner may end up as being a bull market instead, and you, you just missed it! How?

    But you argue, wait, I'll just get back into stock market if the bear market doesn't materialize, and even if the bear market does materialize then I can buy back at a lower price.

    Now, first of all, if you sold your stock, you will get whacked for your broker commission, which means you will lose some value of your money. And for you to rebuy your stock back, then your stock has got to drop considerably in a price to make up for your broker commission.

    Then if the bear market doesn't materialize then you would want to get back into the market again, in which you would end coughing out more money for your investment.

    Fisher also argues that people he knew seldom gets back into their original investments even if the Mr.Bear market does show up. For people, who reacts to fear usually are left in a state of paralysis when the soothsayers' predictions does come true.

    Well, Bernard Baruch summed up his feelings on this subject by saying "Don't try to buy at the bottom and sell at the top. This cannot be done - except by liars."

    Buffett solution to all these bear/bull market twaddle? Just ignore them!

    His solution is, he buys into a business on the basis of the price. If the price is too high, then the investment won't offer a sufficient rate of return and he won't buy it - regardless of how good the business is. For him, the right price is always very important.

    Now Buffett is aware that great buys can show up even in a raging bull market, but he has found that in a bear market, lots of great companies are sold cheap. And this would offer him his greatest opportunities to find a really spectacular deal. As in 1987, when the market went crazy, Buffett was standing at the bottom of the abyss waiting for a business he was in love with to drop by.

Friday, July 04, 2008

Difficulties In Selling A Stock

One of the best single advice on selling a stock is to the following...

  • (1) A stock begins to show decaying fundamentals, such as lower profit margins or lower return on invested capital,
The decaying fundamentals would suggest that company that we had invested isn't the same anymore. It used to be good but the decaying fundamentals could turn the company to a poor company. Yes, there's always a chance that this decay in fundamentals is only a temporary setback but the longer we hold on to the stock, the greater the chances the market could punish our mistakes and furthermore there is always the greater chance that the setback faced by the company could be permanent.

And the market is always very unforgiving to the investor holding on to such stocks.

And sometimes it could wipe the investor out of the game.

Having said that, knowing what needs to be done and actually doing it is rather difficult.

All of us have different emotions and for many emotions is a deadly hindrance in the stock market for it prevents the investor of doing what needs to be done, which is acknowledging and rectifying the mistake(s) made in the investment(s).


The following passage is taken from the following book, Investor Therapy by Richard Geist.
  • “Behavioral problems with selling can often be traced to difficulties, conscious or unconscious, in handling the emotions of loss. Loss is associated with selling a stock in a variety of ways, not all of them purely financial. If a stock retreats below its buy price, investors become concerned not only with taking a loss, but also with how much of a loss is reasonable to bear and when to bailout and accept the loss. To one degree or another, the loss at issue involves more than money. At least as important are loss of time, loss of self-esteem, and loss of validation by others. Similar emotions of loss can also play a role when a stock has appreciated, since letting go evokes fears of foregoing future upside potential in the stock being sold, as well as lost opportu­nities elsewhere in the market if the stock isn't sold. More subtly, and sometimes unconsciously, investors become concerned with loss of their connection to a company they know well. This can also involve fear of losing a close working relationship with admired members of the company's management. Sometimes we also have difficulty letting go of a stock that we experience as an important possession. Stock ownership can provide a valuable attachment, and such a sense of belonging can be difficult to relinquish.

    Many investors will deny that the idea of emotional loss enters into their investment decisions. As one investor commented, "I don't have to deal with emotions because I use a computer system that tells me when to sell." In other words, a system obviates the need for emo­tional involvement. However, my qualitative research into investment errors in both amateur and pro­fessional investors suggests otherwise. In fact the strength of these denials seems generally proportional to an investor's resistance to introspection. It betrays the fear that a glance inward at our psycho­logical reactions will destroy our capacity to concentrate on the exter­nal reality of everyday buy and sell decisions. While all systems are designed to eliminate emotions from buy and sell decisions, if strong enough, those emotions can overrule any system at just the wrong moment.

    LOSS SYNDROMES THAT INTERFERE WITH SELLING DECISIONS

    The specific ways our feelings about loss impact investment decision-­making, particularly selling, have not been well studied. We do know, however, that all adults were once children and that we cannot grow up without experiencing either emotional or real losses on many lev­els. In general the fewer losses we experience, and the more help we get in dealing with those that do occur, the stronger our sense of self in adulthood. Feelings of loss, when unrecognized, have the potential to seriously interfere with the selling process, as the following exam­ples illustrate.

    Separation Anxiety. One very intelligent investor who consulted me about his difficulty selling stocks realized he frequently lost profits because, as he stated, "I know intellectually when to sell, but I just can't seem to let go of the stocks when I should." Carl provided numerous examples dating back several years of how he failed to sell his holdings in a timely fashion, each time ending his example with "I just could not seem to let go." I finally told him that I was struck by his repetitive use of those words-could not seem to let go-and won­dered if they had some unusual importance in his life. He smiled and told me he hadn't remembered this in a long time, but when he was young he had difficulty leaving his mother when going to school. Other kids used to tease him about "not being able to let go of her." And "teachers used to tell me that I had to let go of her. I always thought something terrible would happen if we were apart." Carl's "separation anxiety," to use the psychological jargon, hadn't been par­ticularly severe and hadn't lasted very long. But as Carl realized that day, his feeling that something terrible would happen if he "let go" was influencing his behavior in the stock market.

    The obvious question from this example is whether Carl's insight into his "separation anxiety" would cure his inability to sell when he knew the time was right. While intellectual insight rarely cures all ills, the investor in this case was able to make more timely sell decisions. His recognition of an important organizing lens-letting go leads to disaster-didn't remove it. He still felt anxious when he sold stock. Yet at least he could say to himself, "I know I'm feeling anxious, but that anxiety belongs to a time in my childhood that is unrelated to current market realities. Letting go here actually leads to protecting myself." This was a happy ending, since it involved an expansion of his orga­nizing lenses or emotional convictions, and it turned out to be one of the keys to his future investing success.

    Unresolved Losses. Investors who have grown up experiencing unre­solved losses often have specific difficulties in selling their stocks. Where feelings of loss are still raw and exposed, the idea of losing money in the stock market can be intolerable. Any potential loss in the market telescopes all former nonmonetary losses into the present. As a result, these investors are likely to sell too early. Their decisions are not based on the fundamentals of their investment but on the need to avoid rekindling the emotion of loss. As one investor said, "I just can't tolerate the feeling of loss. It has nothing to do with my stock; I just sell before a price drop gets too big so I don't have to confront the feeling." Arbitrary rules to sell when your stock retreats 7 percent or 8 percent below your buy price may prove to be the right choice in some cases or exactly the wrong choice in others. Either way it often reflects a technical rationalization of an emotional need to avoid feel­ings of loss and disappointment at any cost.

    On the other hand, emotional conflicts from unresolved losses can also steer investors in the opposite direction. Where the conflict is from the denial of painful losses, an investor is more likely to hold on to a losing position well beyond the time indicated by the fundamen­tals. These are the investors who are likely to say, "It isn't a loss until I've actually sold my position, so I think I'll just hold on for a while longer." In other words, as long as we can deny that our loss is real until we sell, we tend to hold on to our losers while selling our win­ners, just the wrong strategy for success in the market. Selling the win­ners too early convinces us that we are not playing a loser's game, while reinforcing our denial that keeping our losers avoids a real loss.

    The effects of this type of unresolved loss on investing decisions are most dramatic on the anniversaries of the emotional losses, even if they occurred many years earlier. These anniversaries can be repre­sented symbolically when they become associated with particular sea­sons, holidays, or months. Many investors do best not making important investment decisions during those anniversary periods.”



Thursday, July 03, 2008

Parkson Retail Group Buys Stake In Subsidiary.

The following news article on Star Business caught my attention. Parkson unit buys 9% stake in Xi’an Lifeng

  • Thursday July 3, 2008

    Parkson unit buys 9% stake in Xi’an Lifeng

    PETALING JAYA: Hong Kong-listed Parkson Retail Group Ltd, a subsidiary of Parkson Holdings Bhd, is acquiring a 9% stake in Xi'an Lucky King Parkson Plaza Co Ltd (Xi'an Lifeng) for 55 million yuan (RM26mil).

    It already owns 91% interest in Xi'an Lifeng through wholly owned indirect subsidiary Hong Kong Fen Chai Investment Ltd.

    Parkson told Bursa Malaysia that Parkson Retail, via wholly owned indirect subsidiary Golden Village Group Ltd, bought from Wang Lawrence the entire equity stake in Duo Success Investments Ltd, which in turn owned Huge Return Investment Ltd, the holder of the 9% shareholding in Xi'an Lifeng.

    Xi'an Lifeng is the owner and operator of two Parkson department stores in Xi'an City, Shaanxi Province.

    In addition, it owns a 51% stake in Xi'an Chang'an Parkson Department Store Co Ltd and Xi'an Shidai Parkson Store Co Ltd respectively, which each own and operate one Parkson department stores in Xi'an City.

    The remaining 49% stake in Xi'an Chang'an Parkson is owned by Parkson Retail through an indirect subsidiary. On March 27, it has entered into an agreement to buy the remaining 49% stake in Xi'an Shidai Parkson.

    Upon completion of the various acquisitions, Parkson Retail will own indirectly 100% interest in four department stores in Xi'an City.

You know the following part is way too complicated for me to decipher.

  • Parkson told Bursa Malaysia that Parkson Retail, via wholly owned indirect subsidiary Golden Village Group Ltd, bought from Wang Lawrence the entire equity stake in Duo Success Investments Ltd, which in turn owned Huge Return Investment Ltd, the holder of the 9% shareholding in Xi'an Lifeng.

And since I had blogged on Lion Diversified Acquisition of Subsidiary at RM61.55 million! the other day, this acquisition by Parkson Retail Group makes me wonder why this group of company has a habit of making acquisitions of subsidiaries?!

Don't believe? Here's another recent acquisition. Just in May 2008.

  • 23-05-2008: Parkson transfers assets
    by Sharmila Ganapathy

    KUALA LUMPUR: Grand Parkson Retail Group Ltd, a 53.52%-owned subsidiary of Parkson Holdings Bhd, is proposing to acquire the entire interest in another Parkson subsidiary Jet East Investments Ltd for RM110.4 million in a combination of cash and new shares.

    Parkson told Bursa Malaysia yesterday Parkson Retail was acquiring Jet East from East Crest International Ltd to be satisfied via RM55.2 million cash and the balance RM55.2 million via the issuance of 1.99 million Parkson Retail shares priced at HK$0.10 each.

    Parkson Holdings wholly owns East Crest. Jet East owns Victory Hope Ltd, which in turn holds 70% and 100% of the Tianjin Parkson and Nanning Parkson stores, respectively.

    Parkson Holdings said the disposal was in line with terms under a deed on non-competition entered into between Parkson Holdings, East Crest and Parkson Retail last September.

    The deed provides for a call option exercisable by Parkson Retail on certain unlisted subsidiaries of East Crest in China including the Tianjin and Nanning stores.

    It said proceeds from the disposal would be used as working capital and general investments. Prior to its suspension yesterday pending the announcement, Parkson Holdings Bhd shares’ were last traded at RM6.60.

    Parkson Retail, which was listed on the Main Board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2005, manages a large network of Parkson department stores in China.

Won't you agree?

It's like don't they have other BETTER business to do besides having one subsidiary buying yet another subsidiary?

No other business meh?

WOW! I am RICH!

Just got this in email box.

  • THIS IS FOR YOUR ATTENTION.

    We wish to notify you again that you were listed as a beneficiary to the
    total sum of
    £10,600,000.00GBP (Ten Million Six Hundred Thousand British Pounds) in the codicil and last testament of the deceased. (Name now withheld since this is our second letter to you). We contacted you because you bear the surname identity and therefore can present you as the beneficiary to the inheritance.

    We therefore reckoned that you could receive these funds as you are qualified by your name identity. All the legal papers will be processed in your acceptance. In your acceptance of this deal, we request that you kindly forward to us your letter of acceptance; your current telephone and fax numbers and a forwarding address to enable us file necessary documents at our high court probate division for the release of this sum of money.

    Please contact me via my private email so that we can get this done immediately.
    johnmax_cgs@yahoo.com


    Kind regards,
    Mr. JOHN MAX.

Dear John,

What ELSE can I say?

It's not like everyday anyone can inherit £10,600,000.00GBP (Ten Million Six Hundred Thousand British Pounds!

What can I possibly do with all these money???

Shall I donate all of it randomly?

No Risk No Gain But Risking Too Much To Gain Too Little Makes No Sense Either!

Peter Bernstein has published a wonderful piece of article on New York Times a couple of weeks ago, What Happens if We’re Wrong?. It was featured by Chris Puplava, FinancialSense's market commentator, on his wonderful market wrap today, Don't Forget Newton's First Law!

  • What Happens if We’re Wrong?

    “The key word is ‘consequences.’ I learned this lesson many years ago from studying Blaise Pascal, a French mathematical genius in the 17th century who spelled out the laws of probability more clearly than anyone before him. This was a thunderclap of an insight that, for the first time, gave humanity a systematic way of thinking about the future.

    Pascal was both a gambler and a religious zealot. One day he asked himself how he would handle a bet on whether ‘God is or God is not.’ Reason could not answer. But, he said, we can choose between acting as though God is or acting as though God is not.

    Suppose we bet that God is, and we lead a life of virtue and abstinence, and then the day of reckoning comes and we discover that there is no God. Well, life was still tolerable even if less fun than we might have liked. Here, the consequences of being wrong would be acceptable to most people.

    Suppose, however, we bet that God is not, and lead a life of lust and sin, and then it turns out that God is. Now being wrong has put us into big trouble.”

    RISK management, then, should be a process of dealing with the consequences of being wrong. Sometimes, these consequences are minimal — encountering rain after leaving home without an umbrella, for example. But betting the ranch on the assumption that home prices can only go up should tell you the consequences would be much more than minimal if home prices started to fall.”

The key assumption here is ONLY.

And Bernstein then continues by explaining the issue of risk management.

  • In this assumption, the word “only” is ridiculous. There are no “onlys” in the future. More things can happen than will happen.

    Under those conditions, risk management should concentrate either on limiting the size of the bet or on finding ways to hedge the bet so you are not wiped out if you take the wrong side — if home prices do start to go down, or even stop rising. Risk management is fundamentally different from managing volatility, which is how many investors view it. Volatility is often a symptom of risk but is not a risk in and of itself. Volatility obscures the future but does not necessarily determine the future.

    Effective risk management starts with the recognition that any forecast can be wrong, then weighs the consequences of being wrong. Only then can we decide whether to make a bet, whether to hedge that bet and how to execute the hedge if needed. ( Do read rest of Bernstien article
    here )

A couple of months ago, I wrote Understanding My Investment Risks.

  • Investing in any stock(s) is risky.

    There is no investment which carries absolutely zero risk.

    Which is why before I make any investment decisions, I always, always weigh out all the pros and cons.

    Investment should never be about investing based on yardsticks and numbers. As mentioned before a low PE stock does not the stock a good stock. It simply means that the stock is traded cheaply in comparison to its earnings.

    Do you see that it is so common that most tend to equate a LOW PE stock as a great investment? And the whole bias-ness is based on the fact that it's a lowly traded PER stock.

    Which I feel it's so badly twisted.

    One should invest in a GOOD QUALITY stock that a cheap price. However, it does not mean that all cheap stocks are GOOD QUALITY stocks. Some stocks are cheap because of the risk within the stock. You cannot use the cheapness in the traded stock price to justify that the stock is good!

    Too confusing?

    Flip it the other way around.

    How about them high PE stocks? Does a high PE stock make the stock a lousy stock? Does it? I don't think so. It only means that it's an expensive stock and from an investing perspective it only means that our chances of being rewarded in such an investment is rather slim. ( Dali had also written recently on PER and here is his take,
    PER – simple but limited )

    Anyway, back to the pros and cons of the stock.

    And because I tend to consider all the concerns and risks within a stock, folks tend to consider myself a critical cynic.

    But my reasoning is simple, if we don't know and we don't consider all the risks and concerns within a stock, how can we fully justify the risk in our investments?

    Should the fact that the stock trades at a low PE over weighs all risks?

    Well, if that's the mindset, then I have one great example, Megan Media. It showed clearly the risk when one gets fixated on the investment yardsticks and ignores all the risk.