Tuesday, March 01, 2011

Is RHB's Downgrade Of JCY And Fair Value Call Of Only 22 sen Too Harsh?

Posted this afternoon: How Was JCY's Earnings?

In that posting, I highlighted a snapshot of RHB's report on JCY's earning review. The recommendation and target price was a shocker for many.

Yes, as you can see RHB downgraded JCY to an underperform and gave JCY a target price of a mere 22 sen.

Why so low?

Is RHB over reacting?

Now if it was me.. here's what I will do.

Compare the recent earnings of JCY and then compare it with RHB's estimates.

Let's see.....

End Nov 2010, JCY reported a net loss of 22 million for its fy 2004 Q4 earnings.

On Friday, JCY said it made a net profit of 7.512 million for its fy 2011 Q1. Yes, a net profit of only 7.512 million.

And assuming ( I know.. I will make an ass of u and me! :P ) an annualised earnings estimate, at best we can assume that JCY will make 7.5 x 4, which works to a mere 30 million.

Now RHB's estimate earnings is 44 million. Which is much better than using an annualised estimate.

So is RHB's estimate a bit harsh?

Yes? Or maybe fair?

If it's fair... then based on a 10x earnings multiple, 22 sen is not too harsh is it?

And compare the issues JCY is having as per RHB's report:

  1. lower revenue (-16.9% yoy);
  2. higher cost of sales due to rising raw material prices (+12% pts yoy); and
  3. stronger RM vs. US$.

And RHB's outlook for the HDD sector.

  • we believe the outlook for the industry is waning as there could still be excess HDD inventory due to the persistent weaker-than-expected demand for desktop PCs and netbooks compounded by the rising demand for alternative storage (i.e. solid state drives (SSD).

Weaker demand for desktop? Is that true? How many are buying a desktop nowadays? And what about laptops too? Are the price of the new laptops getting cheaper?

Or how about the external HDD market? The prices are falling like crazy yes? And if the prices are getting cheaper, how much can these HDD makers make?

And the USD vs RM issue.

Does the USD look like getting some strength against the RM anytime soon?

And then you have raising raw material cost.

How are all these reasonings given by RHB Research? Are they too conservative?

And if the answer is no... what if RHB's projection is true?

And let's stretch it a bit more.... say RHB estimate is off. Let's say it's off by 100 percent! :)

Which means, let's assume JCY makes 88 million instead of 44 million. Now JCY has 2044 million shares. Based on earnings of 88 million, this would equate to an eps of around 4 sen only. An eps of 4 sen. How much do you think it's fair value?


Roy said...

good call. I sold JCY many moons ago. Made a loss..oh well...will avoid JCY like a plaque.