Thursday, February 12, 2009

Plunging Export Numbers!

Caught this on Dow Jones.

Malaysia December Exports Plunge The Most In 7 Years

  • KUALA LUMPUR (Dow Jones)--Malaysia's exports slumped the most in seven years in December, as the global economic downturn curbed demand for the country's key products.

    Economists say exports will likely continue to fall in the first quarter of this year, hurting the trade-driven economy.

    "The numbers just went off the cliff," said David Cohen, director of Action Economics in Singapore.

    Malaysia's exports fell 14.9% to MYR46.09 billion ($12.79 billion) in December from a year earlier, worse than market expectations, due to lower shipments of electrical and electronics products and chemical products, data released Thursday showed.

    The contraction was the most severe since September 2001, when exports plunged 21%.

    Imports fell 23.1% on year to MYR34.42 billion, sharply weaker than MYR40.28 billion in November, the Ministry of Trade & Industry said in a statement.

    The trade surplus in December, however, rose to MYR11.67 billion from MYR11.49 billion the month before.

    The median forecasts of 12 economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires had called for a 9.0% contraction in December exports, a 11.9% fall in imports and a trade surplus of MYR9.6 billion.

    Cohen said the sharp slowdown wasn't a complete surprise. "The pattern in Malaysia follows that in the rest of the region and reflects the collapse in global demand," he said.

    He said demand and trade will not likely recover in the near term and this will affect the country's growth rate.

    "The economy will do well if it manages between 0% and 1% growth this year," he said.

    Standard Chartered economist Alvin Liew said exports from Malaysia would likely "suffer" this year from declining demand for manufactured goods such as electronics and falling commodities such as crude petroleum and palm oil.

    "We project Malaysia exports will likely contract by 11.9% in 2009," Liew said, noting that the last time exports contracted by such a magnitude was in 2001, by 10.4%.

    On month, exports declined 11% in December while imports were lower by 14.5%.

    Shipments of electrical and electronics goods, the country's biggest export, fell 25.6% on year to MYR17.0 billion.

    Chemical and chemical products exports dropped 28% to MYR2.40 billion while palm oil exports eased 6.1% to MYR3.55 billion.

    For the full year, Malaysia' exports rose 9.6% to MYR663.51 billion, while imports grew 3.3% to MYR521.5 billion.

    Liew said Malaysia's exports fared better than regional counterparts like Singapore largely thanks to the huge commodities boom in the first half of last year.


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