Monday, September 13, 2010

Reply From BullBear: Don't Waste Time On What Is Not-Knowable

Got the following comments from the posting: "More On Stock Mutual Fund Cash Outflows"

  • bullbear said...
    Mr.Moolah dear... I am looking for 5 or 10 stocks, which will provide me with fantastic returns over the long term, in my portfolio.

    One should focus on investing in individual stock, rather than the overall market. Adopting such a philosophy and strategy allows one to ignore the flow of funds and other asset classes which one may be less knowledgeable in. Don't waste time on what is not-knowable.
    Can anyone predict where the interest rate will be next year? What about the rate of inflation? ...etc. etc.

Ah BB:

It's now Mr.Moolah dear? I am no longer a female? LOL!

Many thanks for sharing your personal strategy and your kind word of advice.

However, you should know, I have no motivation and interest to blog on my personal investment strategy because I am a flawed nobody. Yes. I am always wrong.

Now just sharing some of my thoughts.

And as you are aware, this is a blog of my writings on my free time and many of which has no bearing of what I will or will not do in the market. Is it a waste of my time blogging on what is not-knowable? Perhaps but as long as I have the time and motivation, this blog shall continue as it is. I do hope it's not a waste of your time reading.

And it appears that this series posting highlighting the fact that American have redeemed a lot of money from their equity mutual funds have caused some unease.

Yeah, our local markets is hot and certain quarters do not want to see me highlighting this fact.

I find it rather amusing, more so because I state not what the market will or will not do.

:-)

16 comments:

bonny b said...

Bull=Male-beef
Cow=Female-beef
So, BB+MooCow= Husband+wifey,
Straight or not?
Or both not-so-straight?
Haizzz, this is more complicated than investing...

Moolah said...

Aiiiikzzzz!

Now I am con-fuse-eeeeeed.

:P

Gamelion said...

Food 4 thought:
Is it possible 2 see & blog now
if not 4 some crazy persons wasting all their time long ago dreaming everyday about how 2 invent this screen u r watching now ?

Moolah said...

WOW!

Why so deep? :P

TK said...

Walau.. got 5 to 10 stocks which give fantastic return... don't have to bother the market some more...

BB post it in your blog or email me can arr? I wanna buy. (If you stingy, give me 5 stocks enuf, I no greedy)

Btw, how many % return can be consider fantastic arr?


P.S. Where is the drooling smillies?

investbullbear said...

Aisehman, Moo. You have mis-interpreted my remark.

"Don't waste time pondering on what is not-knowable" is a quote and advice.....I think, from Buffett.

I was just contributing an alternative idea to your thesis .... take this as a natural process in a healthy discussion of your present topic.

Cheers.

Moolah said...

bb: noted.

Actually, here's a simple thing you can do.... for a moment.

Remember how some track money flows into the Malaysian market? ( CIMB does a monthly report)

And whenever there is money flowing into the markets, ppl go gaga.

Now ... think of the Americans redeeming from their equity funds.

How?

:-)

investbullbear said...

Yes, your point is noted too.

This strategy requires staying only with very "good quality stocks".

Ass-um-ing one is able to pick these stocks, their short term price fluctuations are actually small blips in its long term ascending price trend lines which reflect their earnings power.

Look at the 10 years charts for companies like Nestle, Petdag, Dlady, PPB, PBB, ....etc.

Moolah said...

LOL!

Nothing doing with strategy.

I mentioned it cos I am bemused by human behavior.

:-)

hhc1977 said...

yo mm,

AS the saying goes

"new bull starts when the bear is in tight grip".

BTW, US trading volume has been consistently below average (new normal??) and i am not very convince with US side of story (as i m sidelined for quite some time).
The reverse is true for ASIA markets.

I do like markets which consistently getting attention (money). All boats rises when the tide is high. Everyone (almost) makes money during bull run.

Moolah said...

Quote: US trading volume has been consistently below average

Ah.... at least someone else is acknowledging this issue.

So why?

Could it be because the equity hedge funds have been seen rather significant amount of redemption?

A simple question: 'Less funds for mutual funds equals ...... ? '

:D

yaaa.... u can gauge it so easily. Stocks are shooting for the orbit for the silliest of reasons.

Yesterday massive run... err.. aparently markets cheering for Basel III.

So what have Basel III done?

Does it solve anything?

What's the potential leveraging for banks?

What's the so-called 'value' of 'ass-ets' carried on their books?

What prices are they marked to?

And .... what happens to the bankers bonus?

And if it doesn't solve anything.. where arre heading back to?

Life is wonderful, eh?

:D

Moolah said...

hhc: Yeah.. when market is hot.. we get to be priviliged to read the following such articles...

http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIMES/articles/20100914010304/Article/#ixzz0zSWqU4VY"

LOL! Sure make 'sense'.

tklaw said...

After reading the article...are you indirectly suggesting us to sell off our shares and empty our bank account follow by buying into commodity like crude oil, gold, silver...LOL

I suppose it does providing helpful information about the future theme for investment in stock market. If I believe that hyperinflation will hold true, I may focus in certain sector ie, plantation, oil n gas...

Moolah said...

tklaw: That hyperinflation article was viewed negatively by Mish.

Well, if you have the time, enjoy the following...

Debating the Flat Earth Society about Hyperinflation

:-)

Now that would be complete... we have both sides of the coin.

Mr ICICI said...

don't u guys understand? ppl r redeeming money from US market to come to our dearest Malaysia!!

Malaysia is the best!

This Hari Raya has been fantastic.

Let's hope klci reach 2000 by xmas or deepavali!

Moolah said...

huhuuuu.... are you sure yo be happy with a 'mere' 2000 pts?

:P