Wednesday, September 19, 2007

And how about China Again?

Here is a fantastic article written by David Webb on the Chinese stock market.

  • What else can you call a US$3.2tn market which has gained 358% in 20 months and trades on a historic P/E of over 60, which is probably closer to 80-100 excluding stock-market and real-estate revaluations from "E". We look at the bubble, the impact on HK, the thru-train, the calls in HK for an A-H arbitrage mechanism, and how the bursting may affect the socio-political system. The absence of a free media is itself contributing to the bubble.

Do give it a read:

  • By definition, bubbles are markets whose valuations are unsupported by fundamentals. There is nothing to fall back on. Bubbles never just plateau and go sideways - because that would not satisfy investors who bought in expectation of continued rapid gains. As soon as the momentum runs out, those investors head for the exit, and with nobody willing to take their place, the market crashes, usually overshooting fundamental value on the downside. Just a return to the index level of 20 months ago, when valuations of some stocks were beginning to look reasonable, would be a drop of 78%.

    Like avalanches and other non-linear phenomena, nobody can exactly predict when a bubble will burst. All they can do is look at the accumulating snow on the mountain, and decide that it is not a good time to go skiing. By staying indoors, they might miss out on some great skiing, but they can be certain of avoiding burial in an avalanche.