Received the following comments on the following posting, A Look At iCapital's Buy Call on NasionCom!
- 廖福深 said...
I feel sad for TTB because some people here just like to bash people on some small mistakes. TTB has been in the market for a long long time and I don't think his record is anything is be ashamed of. Depending on how you look at your portfolio, I believe you can allow for some 100% writeoffs in your stocks (just like structured warrants expiring worthless). For every Nasioncom, our friend has a few LionDIV. If you strcutured your investment to allow for such eventuality, no need to say sorry!
Dear 廖福深,
Let me explain what has transpired here on this blog.
I had been noticing that Mr. Tan Teng Boo has been rather bullish on the mass media early this year. Several articles have been quoted that Mr. Tan had declared himself to be bullish on the markets. And in his OWN subscription editorial, he had stated that he was a long term bull on the local markets and that his long term targets for the KLCI is at 2000 pts.
(ps if you see this posting here one would notice that in iCapital own words "Instead of boring our subscribers with our LONG-HELD and CONSISTENTLY BULLISH VIEWS...!" )
Which was fine with me.
That's his opinions and views as an independent investment advisor.
I am not even challenging whether his views are correct or not.
Now what I found discovered in the quarterly earnings during this very same period that he had been telling the Malaysian public he was bullish, he contradicted what he said by selling some rm50 million worth of shares.
Everything else aside, is such actions correct?
Why tell everyone one you are bullish when you are actually disposing a lot of shares?
If it wasn't Mr. Tan and it was me. Imagine me blog about Hai-O and imagine me saying that Hai-O is a wonderful stock. And while I am singing my praise to you, I sell my shareholdings in this very same. Now is this correct?
Don't you think that this shouldn't be?
Now if I am wrong, then what about Mr.Tan Teng Boo?
Let's not judge who I am but judge the actions!
Which is why What Do You Think of ICap's Recent Disposal Of Shares Held? was posted. And then followed by More Rumblings On Tan Teng Boo's ICapital's Disposal Of Shares. Which lead to a blogger commented that Tan Teng Boo Declares Warren Buffett to be a lousy Economist! and Is iCapital Views Consistent? Is Warren Buffett a Lousy Ecomist?
Which comes to NasionCom, a stock that I had blogged a couple of times before. NasionCom Founder Charged With Bribery!
And I was shocked to read iCap recommended a BUY call on this stock.
Why was I shocked? I knew NasionCom was a terrible stock. That was a fact.
Let me repeat what I had posted on More on iCapital Buy Call On NasionCom
- A lot of folks like to rate investment advisors based on their accuracy, which is bench marked against the said stock movement.
I do have a differing opinion.
When one is focused on benchmark issues like accuracy and the performance of the said stock, then it renders the actual usefulness of the investment analysis/report. Focus is on performance, right? So what's the difference between a report/analysis with the basic stock tipster?
Is there any difference?
I see zero difference then because everyone is judged on how that stock performs, which ultimately renders the analysis/report useless.
And more so when one considers that in the market, sometimes some stocks go mysteriously higher after a report is published. Which makes one wonder if the analysis was really good or perhaps the dark force was simply stronger?
So what do I prefer?
I prefer to rate the analysis/report based on the reasoning why a certain call is made on the stock.
Yes, I do not want to see contradictory buy calls made despite the glaring issues within the stock.
In short, it's not about how the stock call or recommendation performs but how the call is made.
Yes for me, most important is how the call is made.
Look at NasionCom.
The BUY call totally contradicts the glaring weakness in the stock. How could one well known and good independent investment advisor company like iCapital not able to acknowledge the weakness in the stock?
Am I bashing without a reason?
Or am I merely pointing out what is happening here?
Is it wrong for me to point this out?
ps... I actually feel sad to see all this happening.
21 comments:
Why let your call cloud the facts? Why let your judgement cloud the facts?
Too much cigar smoking?
Good comment I totally agree.
Gone are the days where we can buy penny stocks & hope greater fool will take it from us.
Latest news Bursa is working on delisting Nasioncom.
Hope are diminishing !
Hi Moola,
Good on you for posting this. Full support from me. TTB is certainly some one worth listen to BUT he is not Warren Buffett or Charlie Munger. Warren Buffett is very humble and quick to admit mistake. TTB is quite aggressive in pushing his ideas. However, he is an above-average investor that certainly worth paying to get his reports. BUT, the call on NasionCom is a really bad call. There is other bad calls too - like BIG industries, DRB-Hicom, Mieco and much more. It still works out that he got 67% right where as the average analyst is below 50% when they made a lot of calls
Dear David,
Thanks for sharing your views.
One comment, you said " It still works out that he got 67% right where as the average analyst is below 50% when they made a lot of calls"
David for me, most important is the reasoning behind the stock call..
Dear Grahamsmun,
Yes, come next month Nasioncom should be delisted.
End of a truly shambolic episode!
rgds
My Dear Peisheah,
Call cloud facts, judgemen clouds facts....
Cloud here, cloud there... so many clouds everywhere...
:sweat: :sweat:
Don't you think too many clouds makes it a challenge to see where the cigar is?
:P
Hi all sifus,
New to this blog. Obviously, all of you are very very experienced investors.
I just have some doubts. From your comments, it seems that all the analysis is done by Tan Teng Boo himself. I went for interview once and it seems he does have analysts working for him. Some background check, he has a telco analyst. Nasioncom is a telco, and it seems to me that it is the analyst that screwed up, and not Tan himself. It seems rather unfair to bash him, since it is uncertain whose call it was
Hello,
This is a simple blog - sifu only exist in a movie and they tend to die early in the movies.
So do note there is NO sifu.
You said the following:
I just have some doubts. From your comments, it seems that all the analysis is done by Tan Teng Boo himself. I went for interview once and it seems he does have analysts working for him. Some background check, he has a telco analyst. Nasioncom is a telco, and it seems to me that it is the analyst that screwed up, and not Tan himself. It seems rather unfair to bash him, since it is uncertain whose call it was.
Do note that there are 2 issues here.
1. http://whereiszemoola.blogspot.com/2008/04/what-do-you-think-of-icaps-recent.html
That above posting showed the SHOCKING discrepancy between what Mr.Tan said on the press (He was quoted to be bullish on the news media from Jan - March) and despite being bullish, iCapital, the closed-end fund Mr.Tan manages, turns around and SELLS some rm50 million worth of shares in the same time.
Extremely contradictory between what's said and what's been done!
2. Nasioncom issue.
Three postings were made.
a. http://whereiszemoola.blogspot.com/2008/05/look-at-icapitals-buy-call-on-nasioncom.html
b. http://whereiszemoola.blogspot.com/2008/05/more-on-icapital-buy-call-on-nasioncom.html
c. This one.
Nothing was mentioned that Mr.Tan wrote the article. All was mentioned was iCapital's BUY recommendation on NasionCom.
So do note, I did NOT lump and BASH Mr.Tan on the utterly incrompehendable BUY call on NasionCom.
On the other hand, do give it a thought.
Mr.Tan owns iCapital.biz.
Look at the 3 mottos printed hugely on their main website: http://www.icapital.biz/english/
Independence, Intelligent and Integrity.
So now I ask the following two question...
Do you think that Mr.Tan as the owner of this company should take more care to ensure integrity on the buy recommendations issued by the company?
And now, clearly this buy call has gone terriblely wrong for so long already. Why hasn't iCapital and Mr.Tan acknowledge this mistake made in this report and issued a SELL recommendation on NasionCom? Why?
rgds
Oh btw.. did you notice their welcome message??
Quote:
We sincerely thank you for taking the time to learn about us. If you are tired of getting investment advice and analysis that is tainted with conflicts of interest, hidden agendas and hyped up, i Capital is a refreshing change. It is truly independent
At the end of the day, TTB is still accountable for any calls made by his analysts.
But let's not forget TTB only listed his funds in the last 3yrs. Before this, he probably only managed a couple of millions; and he is managing hundred of millions today --- and all within a short time span of 3 years! Inevitably, there would be a lot of growing pains & it's never going to be an easy transition.
guess everyone has their fair share of successes and mistakes. maybe he should sack the analyst.
btw, moola, how did you get the soft copy of the webpage? my fren tried to forward me but no avail.
Soft copy of the webpage?
Sorry do not understand what you are meaning here.
Just wondering out loud too.
1. Since if Mr.Tan do not write them reports, then what good is their website? This is because from the comments received, they are plenty of questionable reports.
2. And since there exists not too few questionable reports, what makes iCapital reports so special?
Meaning if one compare to the normal brokerage house like RHB Caap (which is free if you trade with them) or OSk or Aseambankers, what's the difference?
Why pay for iCap reports when they are not even written by Mr.Tan??
Just wondering out loud..
rgds
To be fair, they have more right and good calls than wrong and bad calls.
As in you can capture the screen of the content, whereas my friend can't.
Hello again.
1. To be fair, they have more right and good calls than wrong and bad calls.
my opinion: When one is focused on benchmark issues like accuracy, how many right/good calls it then renders the actual usefulness of the investment analysis/report.
Focus is on performance, right?
So what's the difference between a report/analysis with the basic stock tipster?
For me, most importance is always the reasoning behind the stock call
Getting a stock call correct is rather pointless if the reasoning to buy the stock is as flimsy as seen in NasionCom!!
2. As in you can capture the screen of the content, whereas my friend can't.
=> Screen copy of iCap report was forwarded to me by someone else.
rgds
Well, frankly; making a wrong call is no big deal.Everyone made mistakes.
However,if he refused to acknowledge this mistake in regards to NasionCom , I personally felt quite disgusted with the so called , , "truly independent" , , as claimed by him for so many years.Well, did he made acknowledgment on Mieco last time when Mieco at the end trade so bad? I don't think so. In fact, one of the portfolio (Eclectric Trader if I am not mistaken) just sold off without any reasons. Mieco until today was rating as "hold". Similar to the previous comment by Moola.... Mieco was recommended as 'hold' while the said portfolio sold it off long time ago. Why ah? ha......
well, I still have the luxury to access Icap biz (internet edition). Nasioncom;s latest recommendation is: , , "Stay Order Against Listing" , , . What does it mean? Kind of acknowledgment? Ha
Dearest Alex,
Many thanks for you feedback mate!
How have you been doing?
I fully agree with your main point that you had pointed out "Well, frankly; making a wrong call is no big deal. Everyone made mistakes"
Yes everyone makes mistakes but sadly from the very basic investing perspective, I truy cannot understand how a stock like NasionCom could ever been a BUY recommendation.
It's like perhaps from a trading setup, you see a stock or a chart, or a situation where the most likely direction of the stock is down BUT a reputable trader comes out with guns blazing with a totally illogical recommendation that the stock would most likely to move up. I bet you would have said 'Huh? How can?'
Well this is exactly how I feel when I read the screenshot of iCapital's 2006 buy recommendation on NasionCom.
It just does not make any investing sense at all.
It's not even close.
Even the most basic investor would have seen all the deep concerns within this stock.
And yet iCapital went against all rational investing logic and branded this stock a buy!
This makes me truly wonder... why!
Which is why I decided to make these postings to highlight what has happened?
Am I bashing iCapital here?
Or am I merely pointing out what has happened?
rgds
http://www.mediafire.com/?ubfoynnd1mm
Dear Moola,
The above txt file contains analysis from Icap of NYSE.
The focus of my search for the various dated article is crude oil.
i'm sure you can find something interesting. :)
As for better economist than WB even soros???
i don't know.
Decoupling????
Rgds,
http://img2.freeimagehosting.net/image.php?84dd9d692e.jpg
KL analysis, release 23 May 2008, decouple??
Maybe i'm blind. :)
http://img2.freeimagehosting.net/image.php?214dba956e.jpg
Hong Kong analysis release 24 May 2008. Today they are not so sure now, with an escape clause "if it is correct."
actually even if it is wrong, it doesn't matter. we are just checking only nia!
If not mistaken, ICAP have make few stock changes. from petdag to padini and also dispose liondiv which mr tan feel the industry not promising. If that make you feel that he is not consistent with his own view.
From the news letter can see that, ICAP havent dispose any counter except liondiv, and added on PIE.
Dearest Wanderer,
http://www.mediafire.com/?ubfoynnd1mm
The above txt file contains analysis from Icap of NYSE.
---------
Many thanks!
Dearest InsiderGuide,
Many thanks for the update.
And as I have said to others, I am not here to judge iCapital's performance as a fund. It's not much of my business really.
All I am interested is how the recommendations were made.
You know, for me, I do not care if an investment advisor is able to produce 100% ACCURATE RESULTS from their recommendations IF THE VERY JUSTIFCATIONS OF THEIR RECOMMENDATIONS ARE FAULTY!
rgds
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