Thursday, March 04, 2010

English Lessons

Time for some English lessons I guess.

  • SS said...
    hey momo,you said "........an impressive PER means nothing. Really. It's either a High PE or low PE."
    then you said "....I am not saying such an investing would not work ......
    This is what Hokkien call " LanPhar = PharLan" means "talk cock" in simple English
    Seriously, you have written some good article in the past. But if you have nothing to write dun need to squeeze your brain lah.

Let's see. My comments ""........an impressive PER means nothing. Really. It's either a High PE or low PE." was from the posting Some Opinions.

English lesson number one.

I guess I need English lesson to understand the meaning of impressive PER. Right now, all I understand is a high PE or maybe low PE.

English lesson number two.

Or is it hokkien lesson! LOL! Really.

So where and where did I use the word "I am not saying such an investing would not work" It was used in the posting Investing In A Stock For Its Dividend Yields and Investing In A Stock For Its Dividend Yields II.

I really need lesson on hokkien, eh? One minute it is IMPRESSIVE PER, next it is such an investing would not work.

Which is which? I have no idea. How to answer such creative mindset?

Oooops!

Better stop, else I would be randomly reprimanded for losing my sanity!

LOL!

Yeah and such a waste of webspace too. :p4

Oh, many thanks for giving credit too.

:D

Investing In A Stock For Its Dividend Yields II

I guess some people refuse to read or they cannot or they read only what they want to read or they lack the intelligence to understand simple English.

  • SS said...
    You duk main tepi-tepi lubang everyday, so PER cannot use, Div Yield also cannot pakai, so how

In the posting Investing In A Stock For Its Dividend Yields

In my exact words again.

  • Of course, these are 2 examples where investing a stock for its dividends failed. My point? Simple. I am not saying such an investing would not work and I am pretty sure many could provide me with full data where investing a stock for its dividends are proven successful. However, all I am saying is the investor should be careful. There are many incidents where such an investing can fail! The sustainability of the company's earnings is just as important. The reasoning is simple, without sustained earnings for the company, how could the company afford to continue paying so much dividends?

Perhaps I need to put in bold yet again: "I am not saying such an investing would not work and I am pretty sure many could provide me with full data where investing a stock for its dividends are proven successful. "

Perhaps some are mind less open and they simply refuse to want to see.

LOL!

So rather pathetic, yes?

Anyway, let's not waste time on such small ones.

In that blog posting, I made 2 assumptions. Yeah, ass-u-me is ass-u-me is assume. Let paste it here again "Firstly, a buyer for Uchi its dividends in 2007 will be in between Jan to April 2007. Lowest traded price of Uchi then was 2.98. I would use simply use 2.98 as a reference point. With a past dividend yield of 20 sen, at 2.98 one would be looking at a yield of 6.7%. The second assumption is a purchase price 2.40 based on the lowest price for 2007. That would be a yield of 8.3%."

Two reference points were used. 2.98 and 2.40. Both of them, yielded extremely poor results if an investor purchased Uchi solely for its dividends.

The end result is there for all to see. Investing in a stock for its dividend yields can fail and I have provided a clear example with actual facts.

And again, I am not saying investing for dividends will NOT work. It's just this strategy is NOT a 100% sure win thingy.

But many could also provide me with examples where it will work!

And we do not have to look for. We also can use Uchi as the very sample where dividends do pay!

No joke!

Let me show an example where investing for a company's dividends can work!

For its IPO, Uchi was sold to public at a price of rm 4.80. So let's assume INVESTOR DY has the hindsight to buys 10,000 shares of UCHI after its IPO was listed at 5.50. ( Do allow me to use a higher number at 5.50 and not the IPO price of 4.80)

Cost of investment 55,000. Number of shares 10,000

ps: do verify each data with link provided. Uchi's dividends are tax exempts

Dividends collected: 300 x 10 = 3000.00

Number of shares after bonus: 10,000 x 11/10 = 11,000

Dividends collected: 120 x 11 = 1320. Total dividends collected = 4320.00. Number of shares = 11,000. Cost of investment = 55,000. Yield = 7.8%.

Number of shares after bonus now = 11,000 x 7/5 = 15,400.

Dividends collected: 15.4 x 250 = 3850.

Total dividends collected = 3850 + 4320 = 8170.00

Dividends collected: 15.4 x 203.2 = 3129.38.

Total dividends collected = 8170 + 3129.38 = 11,299.38.

Cost of investment = 55,000. Current yield = 11299.38/55000 = 20.5%!!

Dividends collected = 15.4 x 220 = 3388.

Total dividends collected = 3388 + 11,299.38 = 14687.38

Number of shares held now = 15.4 x 11/10 = 16,940

Dividends collected = 16.94 x 273.2 = 4628.

Total dividends collected = 4628 + 14687.38 = 19315.38

Number of shares now held = 16,940 x 5 = 84,700

Dividends collected = 84.7 x 64.4 = 5454.68.

Total dividends collected = 5454.68 + 19315.38 = 24770.06.

Dividends collected = 84.7 x 118.80 = 10,062.36.

Total dividends collected = 10,062.36 + 24770.06 = 34832.42

Dividends collected = 84.7 x 118.80 = 10,062.36.

Total dividends collected = 10,062.36 + 34832.42 = 44894.78.

Dividends collected = 84.7 x 94.40 = 7995.68.

Total dividends collected = 7995.68 + 44898.78 = 52890.46.

Dividends collected = 84.7 x 97.20 = 8232.84.

Total dividends collected = 8232.84 + 52890.46 = 61123.30.

* Cough * It's only 2006 and the total dividends received is already more than the investment outlay of 55000!

Dividends collected = 84.7 x 97.20 = 8232.84.

Total dividends collected = 8232.84 + 61123.30 = 69356.14.

Dividends collected = 84.7 x 164.60 = 13941.62.

Total dividends collected = 13941.62 + 69356.14 = 83297.76

Another bumper year!

Total dividends collected = 84.7 x 100 = 8470.

Total dividends collected = 8470 + 83297.76 = 91767.76

Total dividends collected = 84.7 x 100 = 8470.

Total dividends collected = 8470 + 91767.76 = 100237.76.

Total dividends collected = 84.7 x 60 = 5082.

Total dividends collected = 5082 + 100237.76 = 105319.76.

Total dividends collected = 84.70 x 90 = 7623.

Total dividends collected = 7623 + 105319.76 = 112942.76.

How? Yes, you need to verify my data and my counting, for I could always make a mistake.

Now if numbers are correct, what do we have?

One had made an investment outlay of buying 10,000 shares in Uchi back in 2001 at a cost price of 5.50. Cost of investment = 55000. Total dividends since then is a whopping 112,942.76!

And from the bonus and splits since buying in 2001, the investor would now hold 84,700 shares. Uchi last traded at 1.26 yesterday. Meaning these shares are now worth 106722.00. Meaning the shares are sitting on a paper profit of 56722.00!

How?

Well, if one had bought in 2001 at a price of 5.50, how could I say that investing in a stock for its dividends would not work????

Confused?

This very same stock, in the posting Investing In A Stock For Its Dividend Yields, yielded a terrible investing result.

How?

My point?

Well... let me repeat again... "However, all I am saying is the investor should be careful. There are many incidents where such an investing can fail! "

And in this stock, Uchi, I have showed that dividend investing yielded two very contrasting end results!

So next time, someone whispers to you, that Ah Bang Bang Company, is a super stock, and if one had invested in the stock since listing, one would be super duper rich and because it had such a wonderful track record, one should invest in it NOW for its dividends too.

Yeah, it could work. There's always a possibility it could work but do bear in mind, it could always fail too.

Just like Uchi, it could also fail. Despite its track record, investing in Uchi in 2007 for its dividends yielded a poor result unlike investing in 2001.

Wednesday, March 03, 2010

OSK's What If Blue Sky Valuation!

Randomly dedicated. :p4

I seriously wonder if history will repeat itself!!!!

Back in December 2009, I wrote this
A Stock Called Ramunia And A Research Report Titled 'The Big IF'

Did you see the report? The Big IF!

Today the same writer is pulling the very same stunt!



Truly amazing la.

Is it too much asking to ask the writer to come up with a better seduction method? As it is, it's rather same old, same old.

Anyway, what do we have?

Today we have What IF.

Oh, he added the BLUE SKY valuation!

OMIGOD! OMIGOD!

I kid you not!

I guess this is the first of the kind in the world.

Ho ho ho ho!

Mr. Blue Sky!

ROFLMAO!

First he states the risk in one small passage...


Then he comes out with his gun banging...



So if my Blue Sky comes, the fair value is rm 3.26. Else it's a plain boring price of 2.41 with an un-seductive target price of rm 2.80!

I kid you not!

ps: stock had already done very well considering its recent history.





ps/ps: How come so boring one? No new style to cook meh?




Tuesday, March 02, 2010

Comments On Success Transformer

  • MaxWealth88 said...
    appreciate your comment on Success Transformer.

I actually wrote on Success Transformer before, way back in 2006, Regarding Success Transformer

So how have Success Transformer done since then?

2009* includes the earnings announced from Success Transformer last week.

Now what do you see from the compiled table? Me? As randomly mentioned before, Success Transformer has been doing remarkably well since its listing. The earnings growth is certainly commendable.

Of course some might prefer a better balance sheet.

The receivables does not appear to be an issue at all for now, in my flawed opinion.

Point to note, from the table, fy 2007 showed the tremendous jump in earnings growth. If one is a long term investor, understanding why would be useful.

Feb 2008: Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 31/12/2007

From its notes:

  • The Group recorded revenue of approximately RM 44.2 million and RM 146.1 million espectively for the current quarter and financial year ended 31 December 2007 under review as compared to RM 21.5 million and RM 81.0 million in the previous corresponding quarter and financial year ended 31 December 2006, a strong increase of approximately 105.9% and 80.4% respectively. This substantial increase was mainly due to higher sales volume from both local and export sales with Seremban Engineering Sdn Bhd (SESB) contributes approximately RM 17.0 million and RM 50.0 million respectively.

    Profit after tax (PAT) improved to approximately RM 5.4 million and RM 17.9 million for the current quarter and financial year ended 31 December 2007, increased by approximately 47.4% and 48.4% respectively as compared to previous corresponding quarter and financial year ended 31 December 2006 of RM 3.7 million and RM 12.1 million. This was achieved on the back of higher sales volume from transformer and industrial lighting segment coupled with SESB’s profits contribution of approximately RM 1.2 million and RM 3.7 million respectively.

Some news clip. ( Sorry cannot provide links - the links are outdated!)

  • Wednesday April 2, 2008

    Success to buy remaining stake in SESB

    PETALING JAYA: Success Transformer Corp Bhd, which owns a 60% stake in Seremban Engineering Sdn Bhd (SESB), has proposed to acquire the remaining 40% of the latter.

    The company will acquire the 40% stake for RM21.78mil cash from its vendors, Wong Choon Cheong, Tan Tian Seng, Wong Poh Chee and Wong Chee Kian.

    The vendors would guarantee that SESB earn a profit after tax of RM7.5mil and RM9.0 mil for the years ending Dec 31, 2008 and 2009 respectively, Success said in a statement yesterday.

    The manufacturer of low-voltage transformers and electrical lighting products completed its initial acquisition of 60% of SESB in March last year, two years after its listing on the Bursa Malaysia second board. It has since transferred to the main board.

    The acquisition of SESB, a manufacturer of process equipment such as pressure vessels and heat exchanges, had been a good experience, managing director Tan Ah Ping said in the statement.

    “We are glad the entire 100% of SESB is now under our umbrella. It is almost a year since our first acquisition of a 60% share in SESB.

    “During the period, we were impressed with the aggressive expansion plans and long term profitability of SESB as well as the full commitment of the vendors and their management,” he said.

    In view of the long-term prospects in the palm oil and oil and gas sectors, Success decided to acquire the remaining 40% stake, which would also enable it to fully consolidate SESB's earnings.

    It was agreed that the vendors would continue in their management roles in SESB to spearhead its growth for a period of no less than 10 years after the acquisition.

    “With the continued support from this high calibre management team, we are confident that SESB will elevate to the next level of success,” Tan said.

    As a 60%-owned subsidiary for 10 months last year, SESB contributed revenue of RM50mil and a net profit of RM3.7mil to Success' group earnings.

    SESB's products are used in the palm oil, oleochemical and oil and gas industries in Vietnam, Indonesia, Singapore, China, Japan and the Netherlands.

    The company secured an initial contract from a Singapore company last week, marking its entry into the waste management industry.

    SESB had earlier acquired 2.6 acres in Senawang, Negri Sembilan for a new production facility to complement its existing four factories.

    The new factory will increase SESB's total capacity by about 20% to cater to its rising order book from the process equipment sector.

22nd May 2008, on Star Business, Success Transformer net profit up 63% in Q1

26th May 2009.

  • Tuesday May 26, 2009
    Success expands in economic downturn
    By YEOW POOI LING

    Firm’s sixth factory to begin contributing in second half

    PETALING JAYA: Success Transformer Corp Bhd’s process equipment subsidiary, Seremban Engineering Sdn Bhd (SESB) is constructing its sixth factory at a time when the country’s manufacturing sector is still grappling with the slowdown.

    According to a company official, SESB’s fifth factory was ready late last year and has started contributing positively to the group this year.

    The setting of the sixth factory is currently underway and expected to be completed in July.

    “The sixth factory is likely to start contributing to the group in the second half of this year,” he told StarBiz in a phone interview.

    SESB also added capacity last year when it subscribed to a 60% stake in Sepen Engineering Sdn Bhd, which manufactures process equipment. The group’s process equipment is mainly for the food industry where demand has not contracted.

    The official said SESB’s first four factories are currently running at 80% capacity while the fifth plant is running at 30% to 40%. Its projects in hand are worth some RM39mil.

    Success first bought 60% of SESB in March 2007 and upped the stake to 100% a year later as the acquisition proved to be profitable.

    The acquisition has worked well as SESB had three plants at that time, and under Success, it will grow to six.

    Yesterday, Success reported its results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2009. Net profit rose almost 19% to RM6.1mil compared with RM5.1mil in the preceding year.

    Revenue increased to RM45.5mil from RM42.6mil previously. Earnings per share improved to 5.08 sen against 4.25 sen previously.

    In the filing with Bursa Malaysia, it attributed the improvement to increase in sales from process equipment segment and an additional contribution from SESB after the acquisition of the remaining 40% stake in SESB.

    Net profit in the first three months was also higher than the fourth quarter thanks to an increase in sales from the process equipment division, savings in production cost, operating expenses and improved production efficiency.

    The group’s transformer and industrial lighting division produced an operating profit of RM5.2mil, down from RM5.8mil in the first quarter last year, while SESB contributed RM3.1mil, up from RM2.1mil in the corresponding quarter last year.

    Despite the challenging global economic environment, the company’s strategies would continue to be leveraging on its extensive customer network, competitive products, quality services and wider range of products.

    The group was optimistic to achieve comparable results in the present financial year from the previous year, it added

7th Oct 2009

  • STC unit to offer 19.9m shares in IPO
    Written by Financial Daily
    Wednesday, 07 October 2009 10:37

    KUALA LUMPUR: Success Transformer Corporation Bhd’s (STC) subsidiary Seremban Engineering Bhd (SEB) will undertake a public issue of 19.93 million new shares, representing 24.91% of its enlarged paid-up capital pursuant to its proposed listing on the Main Market.

    In a statement yesterday, STC said it had submitted the applications to the relevant authorities to seek their approvals for the proposed flotation exercise involving an enlarged paid-up capital of RM40 million comprising 80 million shares of 50 sen each.

    It said of the IPO shares, a total of 9.93 million, or 12.41% of the enlarged paid-up capital, would be reserved for bumiputera investors approved by the Ministry of International Trade and Industry by way of private placement.

    SEB group’s eligible directors and employees, and persons who have contributed to the success of the group will be offered 3.5 million shares, while another 6.5 million shares will be offered to the public. STC said the issue price would be determined later after getting the approvals from the relevant authorities for the proposed listing.

    Simultaneous with the proposed public issue,
    STC itself will make a restricted offer for sale of 8.07 million shares, representing 10.09% of SEB’s enlarged paid-up capital.

    Of these, eight million shares will be reserved for STC shareholders on the basis of one SEB share for every 15 shares of 50 sen each held in STC, while 72,000 shares will be reserved for bumiputera investors approved by the ministry.

    Prior to the IPO, SEB proposed a bonus issue of 58.07 million shares of 50 sen each on the basis of about 2,904 bonus shares for every 100 existing shares.

    STC said the proceeds from the public issue would be used for the purchase of property, plant and equipment, for repayment of borrowings, as working capital and to defray expenses. It expects the listing exercise to be completed by the first quarter of next year.

    RHB Investment Bank has been appointed as the principal adviser, managing underwriter and placement agent for the proposed flotation.

    SEB group is involved in the fabrication of process equipment such as unfired pressure vessels, non-pressurised tanks and heat exchangers; metal structures such as plant fabrication and installation, steel structures, piping and ducting systems and other products and services; and the provision of maintenance and shutdown services.

    For the six months to June 30, 2009, SEB group posted an unaudited net profit of RM4.52 million on the back of revenue totalling RM36 million. It posted an audited net profit of RM7.88 million and revenue of RM62 million in FY08.


    This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, October 7, 2009.

And that's about it. So how?

Success Transformer, had indeed done fantastic since listing but one needs to point out that the last three fiscal year, Success Transformer's earnings has gone up another level, thanks to its subsidiary, SEB.

Now Success wants to list SEB. As a shareholder of Success, as mentioned on the Edge Financial Daily, "eight million shares will be reserved for STC shareholders on the basis of one SEB share for every 15 shares of 50 sen each held in STC".

Now obviously, the norm speculation is the stock should perform well since Success Transformer shareholders will be gaining some 'bonus' share - in the form of one SEB for every 15 shares held in Success. Naturally the hope is, once Success is listed, both Success and SEB could trade higher. That's the hope, that's the objective.

Will it work?

I do not know. Market is not mine. I have no idea what the market will or will not do. Sorry.

But if this is the sole reasoning you are buying this stock, perhaps you could be extremely hardworking by digging out information on recent listing of subsidiaries in the market. Did such a strategy work out?

Oh Ramunia

On the Star Business: Ramunia slips into PN17

Ramunia?

Where's that recent blog posting of mine?

A Stock Called Ramunia And A Research Report Titled 'The Big IF'

ps: Ramunia hit a low of 18 sen yesterday!

Monday, March 01, 2010

Having Deep Pockets

In the posting: Investing In A Stock For Its Dividend Yields

  • Kris said...
    Buy and hold looks nice on people like Warren Buffet who has deep pockets.

The deep pockets issue is so rather risky.

In my flawed opinion, having a deep pocket does not guarantee one success in the stock market. One can buy and buy and buy and buy and buy as much as they want because they have a deep pocket.

But what is one really doing in reality?

Well for me, in my flawed opinion, they are only buying and buying and buying and buying more of the same stuff.

It has no relationship to whether the decision to buy the stock is correct or not in the first place.

Same with holding the stocks just because one have deep pockets. What's one doing? Me? I only see one holding a stock just because they have money. That's all. Again, it does not even say if their reasoning to buy and to hold the stock is correct.

And I am sure you know that if a stock selection is really bad, holding on to it for as long as possible or buying more, usually does not correct the initial mistake to buy the stock!

A Look At Kumpulan Fima's Earnings

Blogged the other day: Fima Corporation Again!

Now Kumpulan Fima owns about 60% of Fima Corporation. As expected, Kumpulan Fima earnings was also great.

It made some 18.919 million for its fy 2010 Q3. Last quarter it made 9.872 million. The previous same period it made 9.504 million.

And here's a compiled table of what Kumpulan Fima has done since fy 2007.


ttm = trailing twelve months or most recent 4 quarters/

It's rather impressive, no?

Here's the company's current assets.


The cash balances totals some 110 million. Which is much more than its previous years total of 51 million. Which is comforting to see since the company is enjoying a nice bout of fortune with earnings increasing steadily since fy 2007. The company's cash balances is showing the good fortune Kumpulan Fima is enjoying! ( I am sure if you watch many company's earnings, sometimes you get companies with great earnings but these great earnings are not reflected in their balance sheet!)

And here is the company's liabilities.



Company is well diversified according to its segmentals results and it appears to me that the strong earnings growth is driven by the plantation sector.



And the earnings comments from the company mentioned that there was a capital gain made from a disposal of Banding Island Resort.


Randomly dedicated to tk.

ps: I do not know if stock will go down or up. Ask tk. he knows. :P2

Stock last traded 0.865.



And yes, Kumpulan Fima share price has done very well the past one year!

Are You Impressed With Uchi's Earnings Recovery?

Blogged the following posting the other day: Investing In A Stock For Its Dividend Yields

Uchi Tec announced its earnings the other day. There was some improvement. It made some 10.3 million. (previously it made some 9.187 million only). For sure, one can say that there is great improvement if one looks at its recent quarterly earnings result. Here's a snapshot of Uchi's earnings provided by KLSE Tracker.


Reading left to right, one can see Uchi's earnings improving from 2.771 mil to 4.665 million to 9.187 million to 10.3 million.

And if one based their reasonings on just these set of numbers, surely one would have proudly proclaim that the numbers are very impressive. Some would even call it as growth.

So what's wrong with such numbers?

Almost a year ago, on 25 Feb 2009, I wrote this Yet Another Update On Uchi.

  • We are no longer talking about slowing growth but now we are talking about DECLINING earnings!

Uchi used to be a fantastic growth stock.


Look at that awesome track record. From making 23 million in its fy 2000, Uchi managed to earn a whopping 83.888 million in fy 2006. And with a net margin of 54%, it was truly awesome and the stock flew up, up and away.

People bought the stock because it was a growth stock.

But as most would and should realise that it's highly unlikely such a growth could last forever.

Fy 2007, Uchi made 78.228 million,
FY 2008, Uchi made 58.748 million.

And the following chart highlighted in the posting,
Yet Another Update On Uchi, showed the great decline.


And the earnings made recently showed Uchi made only 26.953 million for its fy 2009.

So despite the strength seen in its quarterly earnings, the overall decline in Uchi's earnings is a concern, yes? Here's a compiled table.


How?

The very first table clearly showed promise in Uchi's last 4 quarterly earnings but as impressive as they were, the numbers simply paled in comparison. Besides declining profits, net margin and sales revenue have been declining drastically too!

Of course, the optimistic might bet on this stock because they like what they have seen in Uchi's recent earnings. They believe and argue that the worst is over for Uchi.

Some are still cautious and skeptical. These numbers simply pales in comparison to what Uchi had done before and they are skeptical and doubt if the current recovery is sustainable.

Some believe the worst is over for Uchi but on the other hand, they reckon the recovery growth could very soon taper out.