Tuesday, August 09, 2011

And Who Made That Bet That US Credit Rating Wound Be Downgraded?

And on the Daily Mail:  http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2023809/Did-George-Soros-win-10-1-return-S-Ps-US-credit-rating-downgrade.html#ixzz1UVBb91fz

Who 'made $10bn on 10/1 bet that U.S. credit rating would be downgraded'?

Unknown investor or hedge fund 'made $850million bet'
Bet in futures market reportedly done at odds of 10/1
George Soros made similar bet on currency in 1992

But source says he wasn't involved in rumoured trade

By Mark Duell

Last updated at 12:08 AM on 9th August 2011

A mystery investor or hedge fund reportedly made a bet of almost $1billion at odds of 10/1 last month that the U.S. would lose its AAA credit rating.

Now questions are being asked of whether the trader had inside information before placing the $850million bet in the futures market, or if the bet happened at all.

There were mounting rumours that investor George Soros, 80, famously known as ‘the man who broke the Bank of England’, could be involved.

Was it him? George Soros, 80, has been mentioned as potentially being the mystery investor who won a $1billion bet that the credit rating would fall

He made more than $1billion on currency speculation when the British pound left the Exchange Rate Mechanism on Black Wednesday in 1992.

But a source with knowledge of the firm said Soros was not involved in the rumoured trade and questioned whether in fact there had been such a trade at all.

The latest bet was made on July 21 on trades of 5,370 ten-year Treasury futures and 3,100 Treasury bond futures, reported ETF Daily News.

Now the investor's gamble seems to have paid off after Standard and Poor’s issued a credit rating downgrade from AAA to AA+ last Friday.

Whoever it is stands to earn a 1,000 per cent return on their money, with the expectation that interest rates will be going up after the downgrade.

The link has been made to Mr Soros in part because he has been tied to President Obama’s administration since 2008, reported The Examiner.

He also recently stopped managing money for outside investors, meaning he is under less scrutiny from the Securities and Exchange Commision

But the mystery bet could easily have been made by another trader with similar resources, despite Mr Soros’s links with the Obama administration.

The bet also raises questions of whether President Obama and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner knew that a downgrade was on the cards.

Mr Geithner said in April there was ‘no risk’ of a downgrade - but the government now appears annoyed, not surprised, by last week’s decision.

He has since slammed S&P for showing 'terrible judgment' in their decision and a 'stunning lack of knowledge' of U.S. fiscal budget maths.


Moolah said...

No one commented on what a lousy article this is? :P

splinky said...

I think it is an interesting article. Frankly i dont really care if it is Soros or Tweedledee that made the $850 million bet. It is symptomatic of the underlying corruption that exist within the global financial markets.

Coincidentally, this story has a lot of similarities to the events leading up to the 911 attacks. Put options on AA, United, AXA etc spiked just a few days prior to the attacks. Coincidence? I think not..

Keep up the good work Moolah. Great blog.

Moolah said...

splinky: Forgot to reply your post.

From the mail online tabloid. "The latest bet was made on July 21 on trades of 5,370 ten-year Treasury futures and 3,100 Treasury bond futures, reported ETF Daily News."

Here's the 10 year treasury chart.