Firstly, I would like to state out that I am impressed with what SapuraCrest Petroleum has done over recent years. Before the earnings reported on Wednesday, I was looking at the following track record.
Now that's impressive, yes? Ok, there's no hiding that fy 2007 was an incredible shocker but other than that year, the growth for this company has been spectacular.
The table above and below are snap-shot from klsetracker.com
The q-q earnings was rather impressive too, yes?
So I was looking at a company with explosive growth and the latest rolling 4 quarters earnings ALREADY indicated that fy 2010 would be super duper year for SapuraCrest.
Then I saw SapuraCrest earnings on Wednesday.
Its net earnings was only some 38 million. I thought it was a shocker.
Needless to say, when compared to previous year same quarter earnings and when you add in the figure to SapuraCrest current fiscal year earnings, the set of earnings sure look GOOD.
But....
on a q-q comparison, the earnings contraction was a shocker for me.
Ah.. but then the local pros say... discount it. Such weakness is only seasonal.
From CIMB:
Quote:
- Like 1Q, 4Q is typically a weaker quarter for SapuraCrest due to the monsoon season which slows down offshore works.
Just a one liner. 1Q and 4Q typically weaker. That's all. Hmm.. so CIMB is already saying next quarter earnings should also be weak, yes?
From Maybank Investment Bankers:
Ah, this morning, I will not use OSK report.
Anyway both CIMB and MIB are saying 4Q is a seasonal weakness thingee.
So I decided to check it out.
Hey, doing some extra work, won't kill, yes? Surely, I cannot blindly follow what these pros are saying, yes? I mean, don't you think it make sense that I put my lazy bones and make my brains think a bit.
So 4Q seasonal weakness. How do I prove this theory? Compare each year's 3Q and 4Q yes?
Let me start with fy 2006.
Dec 2005: Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 31/10/2005
SapuraCrest earned 15.281 million for its fy 2006 Q3.
March 2006: Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 31/1/2006SapuraCrest earned 16.927 million for its fy 2006 Q4.
How? Won't you say that it appears that was no Q4 weakness?
fy 2007.
Dec 2006: Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 31/10/2006. SapuraCrest lost 38 million for its fy 2007 Q3. Yeah, that was a bad year for SapuraCrest.
Mar 2007: Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 31/1/2007. SapuraCrest earned 7.344 million for its fy 2007 Q4.
How? Won't you say that it appears that was no Q4 weakness?
fy 2008.
Dec 2007: Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 31/10/2007
SapuraCrest earned 23.329 million for its fy 2008 Q3.
Mar 2008: Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 31/1/2008
SapuraCrest earned 33.376 million for its fy 2008 Q4.
How? Won't you say that it appears that was no Q4 weakness?
fy 2009.
Dec 2008: Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 31/10/2008
SapuraCrest earned 36.925 million for its fy 2009 Q3.
Marc 2009: Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 31/1/2009
SapuraCrest earned 26.335 million for its fy 2009 Q4.
Aha. This is seasonal weakness, yes?
And we for 2010, we saw Q4 earnings much weaker than Q3!
How would you interpret the facts?
Let me summarise the facts.
From fy 2006 to fy 2008, these 3 fiscal years, SapuraCrest's Q4 earnings did not weakened compare to its Q3 earnings. However, the last 2 fiscal years, it did weakened.
So is this a convincing sign that SapuraCrest earnings have seasonal weakness characteristics?
And last but not least... this posting is not about how SapuraCrest the stock would perform. Would it go up? Would it go down? I have no random idea how it would perform. Ok?
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3 comments:
Wrong choice of word gua, preferably not to use seasonal weaknesses?? Too general...I would think that it is more of weather weakness and project risk.
Maybe I am wrong, but our local O&G companies should not relies to much on Petronas and need to look further than this horizon. We need a good branding other than Petronas...are we there now, I doubt so...how abt you, Moola?
LOL! Perhaps the wrong choice of words from two different brokers. Maybe they are correct or maybe they just based it on on the previous year trend only.
I highlight this because I did not want to do a OSK report thingee.
LOL! Folks might get the wrong idea that perhaps I have revenge on my mind.
Orite, SapuraCrest, perhaps it's argueable on how the brokeage houses brushed aside the sharp contraction in earnings as seasonal. Maybe they are correct. But some might based on a longer time frame and argue that's rather inclusive, for now.
Well that's about it I can pick on MIB and CIMB. (Oh the growth expectation is rather on the high side but that's my opinion and it's argueable.) Unlike that one.
"Revenge on my mind", I very much doubt you are so..ya maybe they are right their choice of words because they are short of another words??
The thought is to get perspective right by having deeper thought on a subject matter / analysis report. Don't report what everyone is doing....
So far, I think your writings are above the pack and you should be or used to be one of the top analyst in country (my guess)
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