Wednesday, April 12, 2006

It's the calculations that counts.. !!

Hmmm ... remember this blog posting: It's the business.. Part IV

Let me show something really interesting...

  • Remember I mentioned that if an investor made an investment into Yi-Lai at a cost of 1050 back in 2003, the investor would have received 450.00 in dividends and I went on to calculate in the following manner.

    So from an investment outlay of 1050, the investor would have gotten a 450.00 in dividends or 43% back of their investment outlay. Which means that the investor current holding cost of Yi-Lai is 600.00.

    Currently Yi-Lai last traded at a share price of 1.30. Which means the investor is holding on to an investment gain of 117%!!!

    Which works to an annual compounded return of 29.4% for holding this investment for 3 years!!!

Did everyone realise that I am really cheating here?!

LOL!!!!!

Ah... let me show why. The invested capital is 1050. The return in dividends is 450.

Current market price = 1.30.

Current market price + dividends received = 1300 + 450 = 1750. Or a 'current' gain of 67%. (and not 117%!!!)

Which works out to a mere 18.56% compounded annual return for holding the stock for 3 years.. and not 29.4%.

See how I managed to glorified everything when I deducted the dividend received from my investment cost?

Ahh.... do you notice that Insider Asia write-ups... and do you notice how they deduct the dividends received from their investment cost?

The below is the snapshot of their portfolio published...

See how they have their 5,000 shares of Yi-Lai 'purchased' in 2003 has an average cost of a mere 61.5 sen?

And by doing so.... lol.... it just makes everything look so much nicer.... :p

Ahem.... it'sthe calculations that counts.. !!!

9 comments:

hhc1977 said...

nm,

that's why i never trust this kind of calculation.

when u bring forward the dividen u r had received, u r effectively ignoring the time value of money.

Eg,

Ex, i buy stock A at RM10 and it pays RM1 dividen per year.

IF using inside asia cal,

at year number 10, my cost will be RM0... So my return is INFINITY!! Where got infinity return one..... Where is the time value of money??

Moolah said...

well said dude!

:D

Moolah said...

ps...

another way to put it....

based on the same yilai example...

say the investor decided to cash out.. at 1.30...

the investor would have gotten 1.300 back from selling the share for a net gain of 250. Dividends received was 450.

total net gain = 250 + 450 = 700

which works out to a net gain of only 67%.

:)

hhc1977 said...

nm,

IN mathematic

ASSume

Price Bot = P1
Price Now = P2
Dividen = D

Normal return cal = (P2-P1+D)/P1

Skewed return cal = (P2-(P1-D)/(P1-d)
=(P2-P1+D)/(P1-D)

See the big difference in the denominator......

Moolah said...

LOL!!!!

weii.. weii... no easy way ka?

:p:p:p

ichithekiller said...

Jeez ... you really think of everything, man ... must be internal auditor la this one ... or ACA punya investigator ...

My hats off to you ...ha ha

Moolah said...

Ichi,

LOL!!!!

Wassup dude... :)

It's just that i know some folks who purchased Yi-Lai earlier than Insider Asia.. and they do not treat their current profits to be as 'geng' as described by Insider Asia lor... :p





psst.... where to apply for ze job huh?

:p

Jason See said...

yeap..really salute moola...can really look into the details and ideas to write on...

R u an analyst, moola?

N/T: One week off from MY, need some time to finish off your articles. :D

Moolah said...

Hi,

No lah... me just a normal bugger.. a mumbler to be exact...

:D