Tuesday, June 29, 2010

Our Exports To China Surging?

On today's Business Times:

  • Malaysia's exports to China surge to US$19.1b

    Published: 2010/06/29

    MALAYSIA'S exports to China in the first five months of this year rose by 82.2 per cent to US$19.1 billion (RM61.69 billion) compared with the same period last year.

    Malaysia External Trade Development Corp's Sabah director Syed Zahirulldin Syed Ali said with the implementation of the Association of South-East Asian Nations (Asean)-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA), where tariffs of over 90 per cent of the products were cut to zero, Malaysia's trade with China was expected to continue to grow.

    "Malaysia's economic relations with China have shown remarkable growth in trade and investment over the past 10 years, and we hope this trend will continue for mutual benefits," he said at the 7th China-Asean Expo (CAEXPO) promotional conference in Kota Kinabalu yesterday.

    Also present was CAEXPO secretariat vice director-general Gong Qijun.

    The CAEXPO will be held from October 20-24 in Nanning, China.

    Syed Zahirulldin said China was Malaysia's largest trading partner last year with total trade amounting to US$36.3 billion (RM117.24 billion).

    He said the CAEXPO has positioned itself as the symbol of cooperation between Asean and China not only in trade and investment but also in tourism.

    Syed Zahirulldin said last year, 100 Malaysian firms participated in the expo under five industry clusters - food, beverages, general products by small- and medium-sized industries, Malaysia brands and government agencies.

    He said last year, Malaysian exhibitors secured deals worth RM204.5 million. - Bernama

Now I had always reminded myself of this posting: Do Not Be Fooled By Headline Numbers

As stated in the posting, Pankaj Kumar reminded the following..

  • Moving towards the current economic indicators, it is also interesting to note how one economic figure can be misconstrued as good by some and bad by others when in reality it may well be saying something else.

    The issue here is that as most fund managers are busy keeping track of economic data out of the US, Europe and Asia practically on a daily basis
    , are we seeing the trees from the forest or mainly just looking at headline numbers?

    Most economic data are measured either on a month-on-month or year-on-year basis. There are two ways to measure the data points; either by absolute difference (for example consumer confidence data), which to me is more reflective of the real situation, or by percentage change, which can sometimes be misconstrued by investors...

Misconstrued by investors.

For example, yes comparison to last year numbers, this year numbers simply looked great. But what about last year numbers itself?

The first five months of last year... what period did it represent? What did the first five months of last year represent? Wasn't that almost the peak of the crisis, where almost everything in the world, declined? And if so, won't the comparison by misconstrued?

And also, earlier this month, I posted Malaysia's Exports To China Shows Big Decline

  • Exports to the PRC increased by 28.0% from April 2009 to RM6.53 billion. This was mainly contributed by higher exports of E&E products, palm oil, chemicals and chemical products, rubber products and LNG. Compared with March 2010, exports to the PRC contracted by 18.1%.

Yes, y-y comparison, April 2010 export numbers of rm 6.53 billion showed an increase of 28%.

However on a m-m comparison, our exports to China in March 2010 was RM7.98 billion. April numbers fell 18.1% to 6.53 billion.


Declining exports or surging exports?

Me? I can't wait to see our May export numbers.