Friday, June 25, 2010

Would You Be Concerned With All The Capex In The Rubber Glove Industry

It makes you wonder about all these capex plans made by out rubber glove makers.

Now do not get me wrong. There's nothing wrong with expansion plans. In fact, it's good to see factories making expansion plans, for it indicates that demand is great.

However, there is a danger.

Demand is not everlasting. It's not forever and ever.

And needless to say, even if demand does not falter, oversupply can occur. Yes, when everyone in an industry sees supply not able to meet demand, people get greedy. Surely, the logical thing to do is to expand production. One starts but they fail to realise that everyone too had jumped onto the bandwagon and starts making huge expansion plans. Next thing you know, the supply is everywhere!

Let's have a simple look.

In today's Business times.

  • TOP Glove Corp Bhd (7113), the world's largest rubber glove maker, plans to spend RM80 million until May next year to set up three new plants and increase production lines.

    Chairman Tan Sri Dr Lim Wee-Chai said the expansion will bring the number of its factories and production lines to 20 and 459 respectively, producing 41.2 billion pieces of rubber gloves a year.

A 80 million expansion plan.

20 factories and 459 production lines. Meaning 3 new factories would be built.

The article continues...

  • Top Glove currently has 17 factories, out of which 11 are in Malaysia, four in Thailand and two in China. They produce 33 billion pieces of rubber gloves a year, or some 33 per cent or more of the world rubber glove. Read more: here

A couple of days earlier, Kossan made the following announcement: Kossan in RM60m expansion

  • Kossan in RM60m expansion

    By Zaidi Isham Ismail Published: 2010/06/23

    RUBBER glove maker Kossan Rubber Industries Bhd (7153) will
    spend RM60 million in the next two years to expand its operations in Klang, Selangor.

    The plans include two new plants, increasing production lines, buying new machinery, upgrading existing equipment and boosting research and development....

    He said the first plant will be completed by October, while the other will be ready by next year, bringing Kossan's number of plants to 12, producing 14 billion pieces of gloves a year, or some 14 per cent share of the world's rubber glove market.

Kossan plans to spend 60 million.

15th April 2010: Update Selldown of glove makers overdone, says Supermax

  • Thai said Supermax expected a 40% rise in revenue to RM1.15 billion in FY10, based on current latex prices and bigger capacity with its new plant in Meru, Klang as well as the installation of new production lines

    It is allocating RM131 million in FY10 for the setting up of the factories. The Meru plant is expected to be commissioned by July while the first of six plants in Glove City in Bukit Kapar, Klang will be commissioned next year.

Supermax's expansion plan is rm 131 million!

1st April 2010: Hartalega plans RM120m capex

  • Hartalega plans RM120m capex

    By Chong Pooi Koon Published: 2010/04/01

    GLOVE maker Hartalega Holdings Bhd (5168) has allocated RM120 million in capital expenditure for the next two years, part of which will be spent on plant expansion and technology investment, its chief says.

    The company, which operates five factories, is in the midst of upgrading an existing plant while completing the fifth one. The new capacity will boost its annual production by three billion pieces of gloves by the end of next year when the plants are fully operational.

    It is producing 6.5 billion pieces a year now.

Hartalega is allocating 120 million!

Recently I made the following posting on Adventa: A Look At Adventa's Earnings

  • Capex (capital expenditure) guided by management is RM30 million per year which will be funded internally and via borrowings.

Adventa management is saying that capex is about 30 million per year.

Latexx Partners: You have to search their capital commitment statement in their earnings notes reported in May 2008. Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 31/3/2010. It stands at 63.128 million but for plant and machinery, the amount is 52.5 million..

Let me grab and crank up my cow-cool-lator... not sure if it can handle all these numbers... and if my fat little fingers are not clumsy and retarded... the grand total is 473.5 million.

So how?

Isn't it a little bit incy wincy scared?

And what about other glove manufactures? What if they get the same idea? Expand! Expand! Expand!


And if we take into consideration that perhaps a huge increase in the demand was caused by the H1N1 flu. Now obviously it is possible that this H1N1 flu might not last forever. What if the demand decreases along with the H1N1? Not possible?

Yes, isn't it possible that demand could one day subside? But then with all these expansions, we know that supply would increase dramatically.

Would you be concerned? A little bit?


JP said...

Stanley Druckenmiller: Very often the key factor is related to earnings. This is particularly true of the bank stocks. Chemical stocks, however, behave quite differently. In this industry, the key factor seems to be capacity. The ideal time to buy the chemical stocks is after a lot of capacity has left the industry and theres a catalyst that you believe will trigger an increase in demand. Conversely, the ideal time to sell these stocks is when there are lots of announcements for new plants, not when the earnings turn down. The reason for this behavioral pattern is that expansion plans mean that earnings will go down in two to three years, and the stock market tends to anticipate such developments.