Wednesday, June 16, 2010

WIll BP Go Bust Or WILL BP Recover Back To $52?

On Barrons: BP: Simmons Still Sees Bankruptcy; Massive Hole at the Well Bore?

  • ...Simmons in the piece predicted BP would be filing for Chapter 11 in a month. I caught up with Simmons this morning by phone to review his thoughts on the matter. He still thinks BP is headed for Chapter 11.

    In response to calls for a $20 billion escrow to be set aside by BP, Simmons concludes the company’s as good as insolvent.

    “They have $5 billion in cash, a $5 billion line of credit, and a $10B emergency line of credit,” says Simmons, “and they boast about how their operating cash flow is $17 billion per quarter. But that’s all consumed in capital expenditures. This outlay [the $20 billion] is going to consumer everything they have.”

    (Simmons is not working actively with the firm he founded, and the firm recently upgraded BP to “Outperform.” Simmons & Co. does not have a position in BP shares, long or short.)

    Simmons has a 4,000-share short sale on BP that he picked up when the stock hit $37. That’s in addition to a prior 4,000-share short sale he made at $48 a couple weeks prior. “
    It’s going to zero,” he says of BP stock.

    Mind you, Simmons has an interest and a deep investment in moving beyond fossil fuels...

Also in another article on BP on Barrons: Simmons & Co. International raised its rating on BP on Friday to “Overweight” from “Neutral,” with a $52 price target.


Simmons VS Simmons!

One Simmons says $52.00. The other says BP will go BUST!

On ZH: Matt Simmons Revises Leak Estimate To 120,000 Barrels Per Day, Believes Oil Covers 40% Of Gulf Beneath The Surface

  • Matt Simmons was on Bloomberg earlier, adding some additional perspective to his original appearance on the station, in which he initially endorsed the nuclear option as the only viable way to resolve the oil spill. Simmons refutes even the latest oil spill estimate of 45,000-60,000 barrels per day, and in quoting research by the Thomas Jefferson research vessel which was compiled late on Sunday, quantifies the leak at 120,000 bpd. What is scarier is that according to the Jefferson the oil lake underneath the surface of the water could be covering up to 40% of the entire Gulf of Mexico. Simmons also says that as the leak has no casing, a relief well will not work, and the only possible resolution is, as he said previously, to use a small nuclear explosion to convert the rock to glass. Simmons concludes that as punishment for BP's arrogance and stupidity the government "will take all their cash." Now if only our own administration could tell us the truth about what is really happening in the gulf...

See also this posting: BP Official Admits to Damage BENEATH THE SEA FLOOR


Richard Cranium said...

I know that people tend to overreact to bad news, and respond slowly to good ones. Human trait, I think.

If BP gets unfairly punished for this, then the costs for offshore drilling will rise astronomically due to insurance.

I bet other oil majors will think twice about drilling again when any one of its own contractor can screw up. Oil supplies drop, prices go up -- good for US as inflation picks up, and they can raise interest rates.

It is getting interesting.

Moolah said...

Do have a read on the following posting:

What if the damages are really worse than reported?

Richard Cranium said...

If Bruce Willis and his team can prevent an asteroid from crashing into earth, I can't see why some other US actor cannot stop this oil leak.

*blushes* Oh sorry, wrong movie.