Monday, July 26, 2010

Baltic Dirty Tanker Rates Have Staged A Rebound In Recent Months According to AmResearch

I was reading the following article MISC sees demand for its new tankers when the following statement from AmResearch caught my attention.

  • AmResearch said the tanker shipping market was improving, with year-on-year growth in charter rates in recent months after 17 months of contraction. “Dirty tanker rates have staged a rebound in recent months. Rates for VLCC, suezmax and aframax vessels are now showing positive growth,” it said.

    The brokerage said spot rates seemed to have rebounded much stronger than one-year time charters, with year-on-year growth ranging from 17% to 86% for June.

    “The VLCC segment has staged the strongest year-on-year improvement at 34%, supported by usage of VLCCs as storage, which takes out a certain amount of supply in the market,” it said in a report.

    In terms of market capacity, AmResearch said that since early 2009, actual tanker deliveries had been slipping behind schedule, which had helped to tone down the supply of vessels into the market.

    “We estimate that scheduled deliveries amounting to 17 million dwt had disappeared from order books (accounting for 28% of scheduled deliveries) – either delayed or cancelled altogether last year,” it said, adding that the scrapping of old vessels was also expected to pick up by the year-end.

    AmResearch believed that MISC’s suezmax acquisition, at US$67.8mil per vessel, was done at a fair price, considering the current suezmax new-build price was US$67.5mil.

    “MISC’s capacity build-up, particularly in the tanker segment, coincides with its recent acquisition of a 50% stake in international tanker terminal operator VTTI BV, which also marks the start of a strategic partnership with VTTI’s parent, Vitol.”

I was baffled! :P

  • Dirty tanker rates have staged a rebound in recent months.

Errr... here's the charts... I hope one can understand why I am baffled. :P

YTD chart of Baltic Dirty Tanker Index ( BDTI )

How you want to interpret this?

Start of the year, BDTI was at 1025. Last Friday, BDTI closed at 861.

On the 13 July 2010, BDTI closed at 780.

The six months chart.

The three months chart.

The one month chart.

The one week chart.

Quote again: "Dirty tanker rates have staged a rebound in recent months. "


Typo ah?



Casey said...

I am also puzzled. The main reason to say so is to make the vessel purchasing decision more reasonable. Most research reports are just for the purpose to accommodate the requirement of the company. Same here in Taiwan.